Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[eaglevision]

Yeah it’s 3 2nd round picks and a 3rd for 3 2nd round picks + future 3rd. So fairly even value all things considered. In terms of dodging a bid it’s decent value.

I think it falls short of what you’d expect if you traded 28 and 31 separately. Each of those picks would be worth a F2 + something else.

I agree with you if you traded them independently you’d get more in terms of future picks but you wouldn’t get back into the draft at 26 this year. Not much point sliding it to 45 etc because that would be used up in the Kako match anyway.

26 over F2 is advantageous aswell

The issue is relying on them doing that deal later on post bid

There is absolutely no way we screw you guys over, it would be agreed upon like we did for the Swans before they changed the rules. We don’t operate that way and certainly not to Matt Rosa. We gave Richmond pick 14 for Baker FFS because one f**kwit made them a promise.

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah but surely they are worth F2 and a pick this year say 45 or later each. You just want a 2 for 1 opportunity at the very least.

Absolutely

We should be eyeing Norths F2, eagles F2 may well be better though aswell

 

[brutus76]

2026 the Visentini brothers rotating Ruck and FF suits me

 

[jdstorm]

I agree with you if you traded them independently you’d get more in terms of future picks but you wouldn’t get back into the draft at 26 this year. Not much point sliding it to 45 etc because that would be used up in the Kako match anyway.

Let’s break this down a bit further

So the value essendon is receiving is this trading up 2 spots (28-26), trading 31 for a future eagles 2nd (seems fair) trading a future Essendon 2nd for a future Hawks 2nd (bad value) and trading 45 for a future Hawks 3rd ( could be fair depending on draft depth + total F/S and NGA players) + skipping Kako bid.

Overall I’d say the trade has a fairly neutral value for both teams. It’s reasonably fair and could easily get done.

I think the question for Essendon is do they think it’s worth having 1 pick (26) or would they rather take 3-4 players in the 40s and play the odds that one of those 3 is better then the player they would have gotten at 26 while banking future 2nds (who’s value will be higher next year with the points curve changing)

The upside of having multiple picks in the 40s/50s is some will get used on matching Kako but others will move up a few spots as picks start being absorbed by bids and they could move up 5-10 spots

I think it’s a tricky decision and a lot will depend on where Kako falls to and how much he will cost in points

 

[ant555]

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/10...-draft-the-key-aspect-of-this-years-national/

 

[ant555]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/dr...s/news-story/3e3909b5ec637e92aeeae8ce440315a6

 

[sydney_gws]

Hello, after Kako is bid on,
Would Essendon do 21, GwS F2 for Melbourne's 2025r1?
Or do you have a better deal lined up?

 

[eth-dog]

Hello, after Kako is bid on,
Would Essendon do 21, GwS F2 for Melbourne's 2025r1?
Or do you have a better deal lined up?

Doubtful.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Hello, after Kako is bid on,
Would Essendon do 21, GwS F2 for Melbourne's 2025r1?
Or do you have a better deal lined up?

Everything depends who is on the board. If it's someone we rate highly and the other team is willing to trade, sure. Otherwise no.

 

[doug85]

HS reporting that were trying to trade back into the first round with Melbournes F1

 

[eth-dog]

HS reporting that were trying to trade back into the first round with Melbournes F1

I wonder if we're using 28 as the slide back

 

[Foxx]

HS reporting that were trying to trade back into the first round with Melbournes F1

Presumably after the Kako bid. If it's before I'll be very happy, and relieved.

 

[ant555]

Proof that Jay Clarke just reads Big Footy

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/7745319e339777ad2c2eef9f13c9231d

"Essendon is considering trading back into the first round if a contending bid for Kako comes early enough, according to Herald Sun journalist Jay Clark."

Lots of detail there JC.

 

[Zach Package]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/dr...s/news-story/3e3909b5ec637e92aeeae8ce440315a6

You’d be doing cartwheels if you came out of this draft with Kako, someone like Ough or Angus Clarke or Moraes and 2 first round picks next year.

 

[Lore]

Proof that Jay Clarke just reads Big Footy

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/7745319e339777ad2c2eef9f13c9231d

"Essendon is considering trading back into the first round if a contending bid for Kako comes early enough, according to Herald Sun journalist Jay Clark."

Lots of detail there JC.

They’d be citing an article he wrote for code sports but I haven’t managed to open it yet

https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-how-essendon-plans-to-get-back-into-the-draft-after-isaac-kako-bid/news-story/1b3d1e5e66549855fa5b661fa02fd58b

 

[jdstorm]

I wonder if we're using 28 as the slide back

I’d say we’re looking at multiple options

Josh Smilie is aparently and Essendon fan

Given our list needs doing our due diligence on bringing him in and what that would cost after he’s been falling makes a lot of sense.

Could see St Kilda at 7 being an option something like an F1 + 28 + 31 for 7 and points. Especially if there’s also an understanding that saints won’t bid on Kako.

Alternatively sliding back 28 and 31 for picks in the late 30s/40s and F2 given this drafts depth seems a pretty good outcome

 

[King Patty]

depends who is available at 21, if Shanahan was then yes would likely do that trade.

How high up does 28+31 +Dees F1 get us?

If we got Saints pick 8 then it brings us back in the game with all the players we were looking at with pick 9.

 

[doug85]

depends who is available at 21, if Shanahan was then yes would likely do that trade.

How high up does 28+31 +Dees F1 get us?

If we got Saints pick 8 then it brings us back in the game with all the players we were looking at with pick 9.

I reckon that’s a steep price. I’d do F1 and 28 for 8. Otherwise, I’d just trade 28 and 31 into next year.

 

[Rick Ross]

I reckon that’s a steep price. I’d do F1 and 28 for 8. Otherwise, I’d just trade 28 and 31 into next year.

Agree.
With the hype this year, prices feel well overs… we’re only 1 year into an 8 year plan / playing group / window right () … so getting more but later seems the smart choice.

 

[Milanista28]

I reckon that’s a steep price. I’d do F1 and 28 for 8. Otherwise, I’d just trade 28 and 31 into next year.

The price isn't important, the player is. Hawks over payed to grab Weddle, the Cats did for Holmes, doubt they care now.

Do you trust our team to get it right and draft a gun?

 

[doug85]

The price isn't important, the player is. Hawks over payed to grab Weddle, the Cats did for Holmes, doubt they care now.

Do you trust our team to get it right and draft a gun?

If you don’t trust our team to get it right, why would you give us fewer shots at the target by trading out so much capital?

If the draft is so even, 28, 31 and an F1 is nuts for pick 8.

 

[Milanista28]

If you don’t trust our team to get it right, why would you give us fewer shots at the target by trading out so much capital?

If the draft is so even, 28, 31 and an F1 is nuts for pick 8.

I'm not saying we should make the trade, I'm saying after it's made the draft picks mean little, the player we take has all the pressure to make it.

I'd trade 28 and 31 into 2025 and try build a mega draft hand, I'm happy to take 3 blokes after 40.

 

[Keystone agony]

I reckon that’s a steep price. I’d do F1 and 28 for 8. Otherwise, I’d just trade 28 and 31 into next year.

F1 and F2 got pick 14

 

[Keystone agony]

To be honest it seems it steps down after 17/18 to pretty normal live picks

Lalor
FOS

Jagga
Draper
Langford
Armstrong
M.Reid
Tauru
Smilie

Bo Allen
Lindsay
Travaglia
Trainor
Joe Berry

J.Whitlock
Shanahan
Taj Hotton (17)



Unless im getting one of them, then im probably just happy with F2 and 40s-50s picks

I dont think the quality from 18-30 is any greater than most drafts at this stage

 

[ant555]

The price isn't important, the player is. Hawks over payed to grab Weddle, the Cats did for Holmes, doubt they care now.

Do you trust our team to get it right and draft a gun?

Caddy.