Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[Keystone agony]

Think we might do 53 and 54 for pies 52, 60 and 66

 

[Duckworth]

They would never have got the amount of picks they did on draft night if we had to trade 9. Yes we would have had pick 9 and Kako but the rest where history if we did nothing. Now we have Kako. We will get a couple of picks around 40 and we have two first round picks next year and also we do not have to trade out future picks for points this year. I do not see it as a rookie mistake. I see it as weighing up what you get at pick 9 against what the picks we got in can bring.

I know people will go bananas when the bid comes after 9 but for me it is a stronger position overall.

Giving up a top 10 pick in a strong draft is a lot, history would support this weighting also. Picks in the 40s are not a priority when rebuilding. I understand you want to support the clubs decision, but I honestly can’t get behind it. I will have some yellow berries on hand come draft night .

 

[ant555]

Giving up a top 10 pick in a strong draft is a lot, history would support this weighting also. Picks in the 40s are not a priority when rebuilding. I understand you want to support the clubs decision, but I honestly can’t get behind it. I will have some yellow berries on hand come draft night .

Has nothing to do with wanting to support the clubs decision. That is just crap. If I did not like it I would have said so. It is my opinion based on a lot of viewing since the season has ended. Having seen enough of these guys live I am not buying super draft. Lot of good players by the looks but question On super stars.
My view has always been maximize the picks you can get in the top 50 over a few drafts. If you go back and read this thread you will see that before we traded the picks I said the play was to hold until the night unless someone makes you a really good offer. We got a really good offer.
What makes this draft the strength it is are the number of small midfielders.
Have also looked forward a bit into next year.
I am not just jumping on the super draft band wagon.
History also says multiple top 10 picks do not always work. 2020 is a classic example.

 

[jdstorm]

The closer it gets to the draft the more I believe it was the wrong call to trade out pick 9. Rookie mistake IMO.

They basically turned pick 9 into 3 FRP (Points for Kako, Dees first, 2nd rd picks which will become F2s which will be used to points match next year as an F1)

How’s that a rookie mistake?

It’s not a fun dopamine hit but it’s the smartest thing they could realistically do

Especially when contrasted against list needs and developmental opportunities. At full health we only have 1 available spot for development because we’re developing so many players already and that’s at SF (Kako)

Trading a F1 to shove a guy in the VFL for a year doesn’t seem smart

 

[Yoda_]

They would never have got the amount of picks they did on draft night if we had to trade 9. Yes we would have had pick 9 and Kako but the rest where history if we did nothing. Now we have Kako. We will get a couple of picks around 40 and we have two first round picks next year and also we do not have to trade out future picks for points this year. I do not see it as a rookie mistake. I see it as weighing up what you get at pick 9 against what the picks we got in can bring.

I know people will go bananas when the bid comes after 9 but for me it is a stronger position overall.

This is the big overall picture.

Getting (hypothetical and random number) 2nd round talent in the 3rd and 4th rounds (due to being a deep draft in 2024) and gaining a 2025 first is overall the best result.

I thought the trade (p9 out) was a bit premature but with the "overs" paid to get it, im happy with the net result

 

[Duckworth]

They basically turned pick 9 into 3 FRP (Points for Kako, Dees first, 2nd rd picks which will become F2s which will be used to points match next year as an F1)

How’s that a rookie mistake?

It’s not a fun dopamine hit but it’s the smartest thing they could realistically do

Especially when contrasted against list needs and developmental opportunities. At full health we only have 1 available spot for development because we’re developing so many players already and that’s at SF (Kako)

Trading a F1 to shove a guy in the VFL for a year doesn’t seem smart

Well, that's just not true. lol.

 

[Duckworth]

Has nothing to do with wanting to support the clubs decision. That is just crap. If I did not like it I would have said so. It is my opinion based on a lot of viewing since the season has ended. Having seen enough of these guys live I am not buying super draft. Lot of good players by the looks but question On super stars.
My view has always been maximize the picks you can get in the top 50 over a few drafts. If you go back and read this thread you will see that before we traded the picks I said the play was to hold until the night unless someone makes you a really good offer. We got a really good offer.
What makes this draft the strength it is are the number of small midfielders.
Have also looked forward a bit into next year.
I am not just jumping on the super draft band wagon.
History also says multiple top 10 picks do not always work. 2020 is a classic example.

Would you still do that deal if there was no risk of Kako going before 9? I don't think so.

 

[Yoda_]

Would you still do that deal if there was no risk of Kako going before 9? I don't think so.

it was probably premature, would we have had the ability to live trade on the night shoulda bid have come?



The notion we should take an offer that was overs is undeniable.

 

[ant555]

Would you still do that deal if there was no risk of Kako going before 9? I don't think so.

Go back and read this thread. I said I would before it was done. The exact words where hold until the night unless someone makes you a really good offer before. It is right here on this forum so I do think so.
I have done my research. Watched games. Got a bit of info on next years draft. We have more options now than what we had just holding pick 9. Anything can happen. There have been some good results of sides having two or three picks between 5 and 18 (first round). There have also been some poor results as well. The other thing is at least we are not going into another draft next year with just 2 picks in the top 30. Every decent list build has nailed 3 drafts in a 5 year period. It is not make or break to be missing out on an extra pick around pick 9-11. Melbourne / Richmond made the most of a few top 4 picks which we where not going to have access to anyway.

 

[jdstorm]

Would you still do that deal if there was no risk of Kako going before 9? I don't think so.

100% I would.

Assuming you value Kako as a first round pick then his points = 1 FRP

Melbournes F1 = 2

The AFL this year has changed the points curve which means matching top bids will require 2nd round picks vs now where you can mostly do it with 3rds. If we trade 28/32 out of this draft for future 2nds that leaves us with 3 2nd round picks next year. Which will equate to another first =3

We’ve set ourselves up to be able to either take 3 players in the first or to make a trade for a star. It’s a good position to be in and we still have multiple picks in a deep draft to fill out the VFL list and hope to get lucky.

We couldn’t afford to trade up in the draft given the picks we’d given away getting Caddy/Roberts and our players had reduced trade value.

There was only one sensible move and this was it

 

[ant555]

I am an Essendon supporter and a lot of the stuff in here makes little sense to me but I also do not really look at it from the angle of more is just better.
Personally i think Kako and two first next year is a decent result.
I would even take no Kako and use 9 and 29 if the pick trades become too complicated but I suspect a trade for pick 9 can easily be done that favors us a fraction.
Like you can not see us trading up at all. No one wants that and North and WC would only do it for two top 10 picks this year in my view.
Finally who knows this year. First time in ages where there is no real order taking shape and clubs are talking to a lot of players.
It is certainly going to come down to hold your nerve or risk and reward for us. Hold your nerve and have a back up plan to trade out on the night to someone who wants in at 9 if the bid comes or just bite the bullet and decide Kako is the guy you want and grab a F1 now and some later points.
We can more than likely sit and hold and if a bid comes get the F1 although it may not be as good as one we can get trading pre draft.
Thing is Essendon supporters will blow up because we want pick 9 and Kako and do not give a **** about clubs who have missed out in the last few years

Posted before the deal.

Agree. In an ideal world we get our pick and Kako but multiple first round picks next year and Kako is a win and potentially just as good or better.

Posted before the deal.

Think I prefer to spread the risk out. Would have been good to use 9 and kako but trading out still gives us kako plus more options. If we trade up then we also have to make a few trades to stop us from going into deficit next year and losing that first round pick.

Just after the deal.

 

[Agronomus]

Has nothing to do with wanting to support the clubs decision. That is just crap. If I did not like it I would have said so. It is my opinion based on a lot of viewing since the season has ended. Having seen enough of these guys live I am not buying super draft. Lot of good players by the looks but question On super stars.
My view has always been maximize the picks you can get in the top 50 over a few drafts. If you go back and read this thread you will see that before we traded the picks I said the play was to hold until the night unless someone makes you a really good offer. We got a really good offer.
What makes this draft the strength it is are the number of small midfielders.
Have also looked forward a bit into next year.
I am not just jumping on the super draft band wagon.
History also says multiple top 10 picks do not always work. 2020 is a classic example.

And 2015

 

[IHurley]

The closer it gets to the draft the more I believe it was the wrong call to trade out pick 9. Rookie mistake IMO.

As Kako continues to not be picked we can progressively trade our best picks for future picks. Eg if he isn't picked by 10 we can offload 28 for F2 (I'm guessing on points). We could end up with a large stockpile of secound round picks next year.

 

[ydc55]

Melbourne played rheir hand well and essendon did the safe option.
This draft is a deep even draft.
Positionally kako along with berry are the best small forwards in the draft.
So we guarantee to get arguably the best small forward in the draft.
Essendon l should be questioning why they kept parish last year more so than draft pick swaps.
Trading parish would have brought a talented kid in, saved salary cap and avoided having a ridiculous long term contract on the books.

 

[jdstorm]

Melbourne played rheir hand well and essendon did the safe option.
This draft is a deep even draft.
Positionally kako along with berry are the best small forwards in the draft.
So we guarantee to get arguably the best small forward in the draft.
Essendon l should be questioning why they kept parish last year more so than draft pick swaps.
Trading parish would have brought a talented kid in, saved salary cap and avoided having a ridiculous long term contract on the books.

They likely tried but players have to approve trades and there wasn’t one there that worked for everyone.

His contracts not that bad when you factor in the cap rising (parish contract is set so in practice reduces every year)

For the same reasons Essendon people want to move him on other teams don’t want him.

Need to have some success to improve his trade value. No point giving away good players for nothing

 

[Duckworth]

100% I would.

Assuming you value Kako as a first round pick then his points = 1 FRP

Melbournes F1 = 2

The AFL this year has changed the points curve which means matching top bids will require 2nd round picks vs now where you can mostly do it with 3rds. If we trade 28/32 out of this draft for future 2nds that leaves us with 3 2nd round picks next year. Which will equate to another first =3

We’ve set ourselves up to be able to either take 3 players in the first or to make a trade for a star. It’s a good position to be in and we still have multiple picks in a deep draft to fill out the VFL list and hope to get lucky.

We couldn’t afford to trade up in the draft given the picks we’d given away getting Caddy/Roberts and our players had reduced trade value.

There was only one sensible move and this was it

Melbournes F1 =1.
We already had points for Kako bid.
Two second rounders isn’t a first, especially when you are talking about trading the second picks we already have.
There is some fanciful mathematics in your determination of turning 1 first round pick into 3.

 

[Duckworth]

Go back and read this thread. I said I would before it was done. The exact words where hold until the night unless someone makes you a really good offer before. It is right here on this forum so I do think so.
I have done my research. Watched games. Got a bit of info on next years draft. We have more options now than what we had just holding pick 9. Anything can happen. There have been some good results of sides having two or three picks between 5 and 18 (first round). There have also been some poor results as well. The other thing is at least we are not going into another draft next year with just 2 picks in the top 30. Every decent list build has nailed 3 drafts in a 5 year period. It is not make or break to be missing out on an extra pick around pick 9-11. Melbourne / Richmond made the most of a few top 4 picks which we where not going to have access to anyway.

This thread is too painful to re-read.

I was firmly in the hold your nerve camp. You won’t change my mind. The best way to nail a draft is hits in the first round, preferably Top 10. Being sold flexibility and options doesn’t cut it for me. Take the top 10 pick, get Kako and see what’s left. Melbourne saw that high pick opportunity and took advantage.

 

[boncer34]

This thread is too painful to re-read.

I was firmly in the hold your nerve camp. You won’t change my mind. The best way to nail a draft is hits in the first round, preferably Top 10. Being sold flexibility and options doesn’t cut it for me. Take the top 10 pick, get Kako and see what’s left. Melbourne saw that high pick opportunity and took advantage.

How do you propose we take Kako?

If we hadn't done the Demons deal our current picks would be 31 and 53, a total of 839 points. Meaning to match Kako without going into deficit the bid needs to come 17 or later.

Say we took whoever at 9, then a bid comes at 11. We are 224 points short, we either need to somehow trade in a pick in the top 40 or take the hit. Which if we had that deficit this year our pick slides from 9 to 12. eth-dog correct me if I'm wrong.

Do you think we hold more power when we're scrambling for points on draft night to avoid that? Or when we did the deal?

 

[ant555]

This thread is too painful to re-read.

I was firmly in the hold your nerve camp. You won’t change my mind. The best way to nail a draft is hits in the first round, preferably Top 10. Being sold flexibility and options doesn’t cut it for me. Take the top 10 pick, get Kako and see what’s left. Melbourne saw that high pick opportunity and took advantage.

I went back and found them. You did not have to read.
I was not trying to change your mind. Simply not agreeing with your take.
There is risk in both opinions. There have been some good results taking two or three picks in the 5 to 18 range and there are some pretty average results as well. It is actually 50/50 as far as results go. Fremantle hit the mark in 2019. We have had two average results in 2015 and 2020. Saints got an average result in 2013 and 2017 . Blues got a good result in 2015. Crows got an okay result in 2015 and 2018. Pies ended up with nothing in 2013 but got a good result in 2014. Port got a really good result as well in 2016 and 2018. Gold Coast a poor result in 2016. Dogs did well in 2017.
We will not really know either way until draft night plays out and we see what moves are made and then we will not really know until 2027 once the players have been around in the system for a bit.

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

Well, that's just not true. lol.

There are ways to turn some of the picks from Melbs into future firsts.
Eg: give 28 & 54 to Saints for their F2 and 47
Then next year you can use our F2 &Saints F2 to trade into the first round with GCS who have academy guys who will go in the first round in 2025

 

[hawkinoz]

I come in peace.

Will Bombers fans consider Hawks making the below offer

Blues F1 for Dons picks 28,31 + F2

We can then use 28,31 & 33 to go up and you will have 3 F1's. Allows you to trade 1 or 2 F1's for first rounders

 

['51 Bewick]

I come in peace.

Will Bombers fans consider Hawks making the below offer

Blues F1 for Dons picks 28,31 + F2

We can then use 28,31 & 33 to go up and you will have 3 F1's. Allows you to trade 1 or 2 F1's for first rounders

3 2nds for a late 1st? Don't think so.

 

[Duckworth]

How do you propose we take Kako?

If we hadn't done the Demons deal our current picks would be 31 and 53, a total of 839 points. Meaning to match Kako without going into deficit the bid needs to come 17 or later.

Say we took whoever at 9, then a bid comes at 11. We are 224 points short, we either need to somehow trade in a pick in the top 40 or take the hit. Which if we had that deficit this year our pick slides from 9 to 12. eth-dog correct me if I'm wrong.

Do you think we hold more power when we're scrambling for points on draft night to avoid that? Or when we did the deal?

My answer is that if a pick came as soon as 11, I'd slide back a couple of spots the following year. It seems better than losing the pick altogether. Many scenarios also, maybe Kako slides a bit due to being injured, maybe trade a future pick in - the slide would be the worst-case scenario.

I'm worried that Melbourne will improve next year. They are doing so much coke over there their players must be super fit.

 

[Duckworth]

3 2nds for a late 1st? Don't think so.

You downvoted an earlier post of mine where I said 3 seconds doesn't = a first. I don't think so either.

 

[Duckworth]

I went back and found them. You did not have to read.
I was not trying to change your mind. Simply not agreeing with your take.
There is risk in both opinions. There have been some good results taking two or three picks in the 5 to 18 range and there are some pretty average results as well. It is actually 50/50 as far as results go. Fremantle hit the mark in 2019. We have had two average results in 2015 and 2020. Saints got an average result in 2013 and 2017 . Blues got a good result in 2015. Crows got an okay result in 2015 and 2018. Pies ended up with nothing in 2013 but got a good result in 2014. Port got a really good result as well in 2016 and 2018. Gold Coast a poor result in 2016. Dogs did well in 2017.
We will not really know either way until draft night plays out and we see what moves are made and then we will not really know until 2027 once the players have been around in the system for a bit.

Thanks for the search, Ant . I agree that both scenarios carry risk, and they have played it safe. I wonder what their plan is to trade back into the First Round this year. Unravelling these deals in 2030 won't be easy.