Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[Keystone agony]

Find out what ?
I am not claiming before hand knowledge. There are a few articles floating around with comment about what we looked for with the draft picks. The fact is Rosa has already indicated what we will be looking for this year.

You do imply that you know beforehand

Now thats what i was asking for?

Now go back to watching Youtube and reading the ESPN power rankings.

Lel never looked at espn and rarely watch youtube, but psychology would say its a fair chance of what the person does that is insuniating what someone else is doing

 

[ant555]

You do imply that you know beforehand

Now thats what i was asking for?


Lel never looked at espn and rarely watch youtube, but psychology would say its a fair chance of what the person does that is insuniating what someone else is doing

 

[Yoda_]

eDPS what can you tell me about Zane Cochrane? likely Rookie prospect but what's stopping him being spoken about as a true National Draft prospect?

 

[ant555]

eDPS what can you tell me about Zane Cochrane? likely Rookie prospect but what's stopping him being spoken about as a true National Draft prospect?

eDPS can give more insight but from what I hear and the little I have seen the question mark is his running power and getting from contest to contest. Bit like a few others in recent years that have fallen way down the order or not drafted at all.

 

[Yoda_]

eDPS can give more insight but from what I hear and the little I have seen the question mark is his running power and getting from contest to contest. Bit like a few others in recent years that have fallen way down the order or not drafted at all.

Just going through the rookie me draft guide. What he (Cochrane) sounds like could be a bit of a bargain

 

[ant555]

SEN's 2024 AFL full Phantom Draft

Draft expert Nathan Sepe makes his predictions for every selection in the 2024 AFL National Draft.

www.sen.com.au

 

[ant555]

My prediction is Kako will go somewhere between 11 and 18.

 

[DERO]

My prediction is Kako will go somewhere between 11 and 18.

So what does that mean for us in terms of our picks? Someone posted it but I can't be arsed going back through it all. My boy, the usually reliable eth-dog , has left me hanging on this one.

 

[TheUnicorn]

So what does that mean for us in terms of our picks? Someone posted it but I can't be arsed going back through it all. My boy, the usually reliable eth-dog , has left me hanging on this one.

2024

• 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65

2025

• F1, F1 (Melb), F2, F4

Depending on where Kako gets drafted, it could cost us roughly picks 28, 31, and possibly 40. I think we will try to trade a few of our picks say 40 & 46 into next years draft. We also may try trade back into the draft someone we rate highly who slides after the Kako bid. In that case, we might consider trading back into this draft. Given how deep this draft is and the uncertainty surrounding what Melbourne's F1 will be, we may opt to swap that for a pick in the teens this year—perhaps F1 (Melb) for Richmond's pick 14, for example.

 

[DERO]

2024

• 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65

2025

• F1, F1 (Melb), F2, F4

Depending on where Kako gets drafted, it could cost us roughly picks 28, 31, and possibly 40. I think we should try to trade a few picks out for next year, unless there’s someone we rate highly who slides after the Kako bid. In that case, we might consider trading back into this draft. Given how deep this draft is and the uncertainty surrounding what Melbourne's F1 will yield, we may opt to swap that for a pick in the teens this year—perhaps F1 (Melb) for Richmond's pick 14, for example.

This is what in was after and it which pick we Kako needs to be take to ensure we keep pick 40 or if there is a chance we can keep other lower picks if he is bid on earlier.

 

[ant555]

So what does that mean for us in terms of our picks? Someone posted it but I can't be arsed going back through it all. My boy, the usually reliable eth-dog , has left me hanging on this one.

Depends on trading out the two second round picks. Which changes things.
If we do not trade out then with the 20% discount then 28 and 31 are used if the bid comes from 8 to 23. We would be left with 40/46/53/54/65. This is not taking into account other bids which there will be at least two. You can guarantee there will be more pick trades on the night. Eth will correct any of my errors

 

[DERO]

Depends on trading out the two second round picks. Which changes things.
If we do not trade out then with the 20% discount then 28 and 31 are used if the bid comes from 8 to 23. We would be left with 40/46/53/54/65. This is not taking into account other bids which there will be at least two. You can guarantee there will be more pick trades on the night. Eth will correct any of my errors

Is there a scenario where we keep and use those 2nd round picks and absorb a bid for Kako?

 

[Yoda_]

ok, so if I have worked out the draft points index with the discount this is what each bid would end up as on Isaac Kako


Currently hold;
pick 28
pick 31
pick 40
pick 46
pick 54
pick 65

the below graph is written as, pick, draft points after discount, draft picks used, pick back with left over points

Cant help but think the picks we've got in the later rounds are all around the "pick back" from left over points. Bear in mind, the points held won't change, it will just be the pick coming forward if other clubs academy &/or father sons are bid on before our picks

Pick 5	1,691 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 54 back
Pick 6	1,575 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 45 back
Pick 7	1,479 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 39 back
Pick 8	1,395 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 36 back
Pick 9	1,322 draft points	pick 28, pick 31, pick 40	Get pick 32 back

Pick 10	1,255 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 69 back
Pick 11	1,196 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 64 back
Pick 12	1,141 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 59 back
Pick 13	1,090 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 55 back
Pick 14	1,044 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 51 back
Pick 15	1,067 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 46 back
Pick 16	922 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 43 back
Pick 17	886 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 41 back
Pick 18	853 draft points	pick 28, pick 31	Get pick 39 back

Pretty sure someone posted out points needed to match a Kako bid at different spots. Think it was you eth-dog

see above

 

[ant555]

Is there a scenario where we keep and use those 2nd round picks and absorb a bid for Kako?

There is. It would depend on what they are looking at later in the draft. Most fans would want to trade out and then back in between say 25 and 35 but you would need to pay a price. If the club has made it plans around what they think they can get from 40/46/53/54/65 then yes they could easily just use 28/31 to absorb the Kako bid.

 

[ant555]

see above

Are the number right ?

 

[Yoda_]

Are the number right ?

yes

 

[eth-dog]

So what does that mean for us in terms of our picks? Someone posted it but I can't be arsed going back through it all. My boy, the usually reliable eth-dog , has left me hanging on this one.

It depends where Lombard falls as much as anything else. But if we assume that Ashcroft goes 3 as is currently rumoured, that takes 1787 points and will cost Brisbane 27 (703), 34 (542), 42 (395) and 43 (378) moves back to pick 54. If Lombard gets bid on at say 9, by St Kilda, that'll cost 1175 points and they'll use 38 (465), 40 (429) and 48 (302) will move back to pick 72.

So for each one:

Pick 11: 1063; either 29 (653) and 32 (584) moves to 58/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) moves to 66 if we trade them forward
12: 1014; 29 (653), 32 (584) moves to 54/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) moves to 62
13: 970; 29 (653), 32 (584) to 51/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) to 58
14: 929; 29, 32 to 48/39, 42, 48 to 55
15: 890; 29, 32 to 45/39, 42, 48 to 52
16: 854; 29, 32 to 43/39, 42, 48 to 49
17: 820; 29, 32 to 41/39, 42 to 72
18: 788; 29, 32 to 39/39, 42 to 69

see above

That's not necessarily the case still. There are a lot of moving parts still. Depends on whether or not Lombard goes before Kako or not, how many trades Brisbane does, where Ashcroft goes.

 

[ant555]

yes

Not sure they are. 20% of 1551 is 310.2

 

[Yoda_]

View attachment 2166585

It depends where Lombard falls as much as anything else. But if we assume that Ashcroft goes 3 as is currently rumoured, that takes 1787 points and will cost Brisbane 27 (703), 34 (542), 42 (395) and 43 (378) moves back to pick 54. If Lombard gets bid on at say 9, by St Kilda, that'll cost 1175 points and they'll use 38 (465), 40 (429) and 48 (302) will move back to pick 72.

So for each one:

Pick 11: 1063; either 29 (653) and 32 (584) moves to 58/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) moves to 66 if we trade them forward
12: 1014; 29 (653), 32 (584) moves to 54/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) moves to 62
13: 970; 29 (653), 32 (584) to 51/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) to 58
14: 929; 29, 32 to 48/39, 42, 48 to 55
15: 890; 29, 32 to 45/39, 42, 48 to 52
16: 854; 29, 32 to 43/39, 42, 48 to 49
17: 820; 29, 32 to 41/39, 42 to 72
18: 788; 29, 32 to 39/39, 42 to 69

That's not necessarily the case still. There are a lot of moving parts still. Depends on whether or not Lombard goes before Kako or not, how many trades Brisbane does, where Ashcroft goes.

the original post outlined that the graph below was at the time of writing. Would have thought that its easily identifiable that matched bids prior would alter our draft picks and as such the DPI would also change

 

[eth-dog]

the original post outlined that the graph below was at the time of writing. Would have thought that its easily identifiable that matched bids prior would alter our draft picks and as such the DPI would also change

I was responding to a specific scenario. I remember your maths being really off the first time you posted that

 

[eth-dog]

Not sure they are. 20% of 1551 is 310.2

Secret is to multiply by 0.8 as that adds the discount.

 

[Yoda_]

I was responding to a specific scenario. I remember your maths being really off the first time you posted that

to be fair, it was just that. A rough take (my graph)

semantics and moving parts means it'll likely be way off come draft night

 

[ant555]

Secret is to multiply by 0.8 as that adds the discount.

I was wondering as I had pick 8 the same value as your chart after the discount.

 

[jdstorm]

So what does that mean for us in terms of our picks? Someone posted it but I can't be arsed going back through it all. My boy, the usually reliable eth-dog , has left me hanging on this one.

If he’s in the 15-18 range it might make a trade up from 28 possible which is a fun wrinkle

Edit: had a look at that SEN mock draft and if that’s how it worked out for Essendon I’d be stoked.

Hamish Davis, Day Wicks. + two other running power mids/forwards and Nguyen. Would be a great draft

 

[year of the cat]

Not sure it’s a remote possibility but would Ess trade 28 and 31 for Geelong’s FF? You’d still have the points to match a reasonable Kako bid and gain collateral for next years draft or to trade back into this years after Kako has been taken.

I have no idea whether we’d entertain the trade either but apparently there are a couple of players around that late 20’s/early 30’s mark we are interested in.