Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

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It depends where Lombard falls as much as anything else. But if we assume that Ashcroft goes 3 as is currently rumoured, that takes 1787 points and will cost Brisbane 27 (703), 34 (542), 42 (395) and 43 (378) moves back to pick 54. If Lombard gets bid on at say 9, by St Kilda, that'll cost 1175 points and they'll use 38 (465), 40 (429) and 48 (302) will move back to pick 72.

So for each one:

Pick 11: 1063; either 29 (653) and 32 (584) moves to 58/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) moves to 66 if we trade them forward
12: 1014; 29 (653), 32 (584) moves to 54/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) moves to 62
13: 970; 29 (653), 32 (584) to 51/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) to 58
14: 929; 29, 32 to 48/39, 42, 48 to 55
15: 890; 29, 32 to 45/39, 42, 48 to 52
16: 854; 29, 32 to 43/39, 42, 48 to 49
17: 820; 29, 32 to 41/39, 42 to 72
18: 788; 29, 32 to 39/39, 42 to 69

That's not necessarily the case still. There are a lot of moving parts still. Depends on whether or not Lombard goes before Kako or not, how many trades Brisbane does, where Ashcroft goes.

Brisbane can move all those picks out on the night can’t they**??
Would it make sense for us to move 46&54 out for 34??
**can only go in on the night with as many pick as list spots they have, but turn those 6 picks into 20 picks on the night if they want(is that how it works??)

 

[Yoda_]

Not sure it’s a remote possibility but would Ess trade 28 and 31 for Geelong’s FF? You’d still have the points to match a reasonable Kako bid and gain collateral for next years draft or to trade back into this years after Kako has been taken.

I have no idea whether we’d entertain the trade either but apparently there are a couple of players around that late 20’s/early 30’s mark we are interested in.

we already hold Demons F1 and our own F1. Doubt wed do this as picks most likely used for a Kako bid

 

['51 Bewick]

Not sure it’s a remote possibility but would Ess trade 28 and 31 for Geelong’s FF? You’d still have the points to match a reasonable Kako bid and gain collateral for next years draft or to trade back into this years after Kako has been taken.

I have no idea whether we’d entertain the trade either but apparently there are a couple of players around that late 20’s/early 30’s mark we are interested in.

That seems like a reasonable offer. 28 & 31 are only going to be eaten up by a Kako bid. Not keen on trading back in but 3 x 2025 1sts would put us in a strong trading or draft position.

 

[year of the cat]

That seems like a reasonable offer. 28 & 31 are only going to be eaten up by a Kako bid. Not keen on trading back in but 3 x 2025 1sts would put us in a strong trading or draft position.

That’s what I would have thought. You’ll lose them regardless.

 

[Yoda_]

That’s what I would have thought. You’ll lose them regardless.

on the flip side, we will still need to pay for Kako. Be it 3 picks in the 40's or two second rounders. Will be more beneficial using as early picks as possible

 

[naraku]

If we're picking first around 40(not including Kako obviously) I hope Mraz is on the board.
I know we have Hayes, but right now I don't think any of us are betting on Reid or Cox(just hoping) that either or one turn out.

Mraz, Kako, Day- Wicks and either Davis/Ough/Urquart would be were I'd be looking.

Nguyen for a rookie spot with perhaps Baldwin as a chance to come back on the list too.

 

[year of the cat]

on the flip side, we will still need to pay for Kako. Be it 3 picks in the 40's or two second rounders. Will be more beneficial using as early picks as possible

Fair call.

 

[Yoda_]

If we're picking first around 40(not including Kako obviously) I hope Mraz is on the board.
I know we have Hayes, but right now I don't think any of us are betting on Reid or Cox(just hoping) that either or one turn out.

Mraz, Kako, Day- Wicks and either Davis/Ough/Urquart would be were I'd be looking.

Nguyen for a rookie spot with perhaps Baldwin as a chance to come back on the list too.

I like the amount of tall fads available across the whole draft.

From Armstrong, Shanahan early to Whitlocks x 2, Faul in the middle or go later with Tom Sims, Charlie Nicholls or Davis later. Could even potentially look at Josh Murphy, Bailey McKenzie as rookies.

A key defender for future planning of Reid not working out? That is very un Essendon like

 

[jdstorm]

Not sure it’s a remote possibility but would Ess trade 28 and 31 for Geelong’s FF? You’d still have the points to match a reasonable Kako bid and gain collateral for next years draft or to trade back into this years after Kako has been taken.

I have no idea whether we’d entertain the trade either but apparently there are a couple of players around that late 20’s/early 30’s mark we are interested in.

Both picks for an F1 I’m this draft is unders

 

[year of the cat]

Both picks for an F1 I’m this draft is unders

Depends what you value our FF as.

 

['51 Bewick]

Depends what you value our FF as.

More than picks in the 40's I would have thought.

 

[ant555]

Not sure it’s a remote possibility but would Ess trade 28 and 31 for Geelong’s FF? You’d still have the points to match a reasonable Kako bid and gain collateral for next years draft or to trade back into this years after Kako has been taken.

I have no idea whether we’d entertain the trade either but apparently there are a couple of players around that late 20’s/early 30’s mark we are interested in.

I doubt we would as we are still going to be looking at 2 or 3 players after Kako this year so we will need the picks around 40/46 which will move up a fraction.

 

[Atavistic]

Not sure it’s a remote possibility but would Ess trade 28 and 31 for Geelong’s FF? You’d still have the points to match a reasonable Kako bid and gain collateral for next years draft or to trade back into this years after Kako has been taken.

I have no idea whether we’d entertain the trade either but apparently there are a couple of players around that late 20’s/early 30’s mark we are interested in.

It does sound interesting, but I bet we'd regret it when you start the season 10-0.

 

[Rick Ross]

Not sure it’s a remote possibility but would Ess trade 28 and 31 for Geelong’s FF? You’d still have the points to match a reasonable Kako bid and gain collateral for next years draft or to trade back into this years after Kako has been taken.

I have no idea whether we’d entertain the trade either but apparently there are a couple of players around that late 20’s/early 30’s mark we are interested in.

Love this proposal. Think the actual deal is fine … but death riding a club I already hate? That’s just cream.

 

[jdstorm]

Depends what you value our FF as.

Well you finished top 4 this year so let’s say you’re a top 6 team. That gives it a range in 12-18 (but you’d expect closer to 18 than 12.

Factor in 5-6 picks for academy’s + compo and worse case scenario your trading pick 32 + 36 (after bids) in a strong draft for pick 24 (possibly later) in a draft of unknown quality/depth. Best case scenario probably around pick 16-18

Geelong isn’t an overly smart team to bet against.

Given the strength of this draft your first is barely worth 28 (32) by itself and we’d be far better off trading back 15-20 spots + F2 with worse teams

For you if you wanted back in 28 + 65 for 74 for F1 is about fair

 

[DERO]

View attachment 2166585

It depends where Lombard falls as much as anything else. But if we assume that Ashcroft goes 3 as is currently rumoured, that takes 1787 points and will cost Brisbane 27 (703), 34 (542), 42 (395) and 43 (378) moves back to pick 54. If Lombard gets bid on at say 9, by St Kilda, that'll cost 1175 points and they'll use 38 (465), 40 (429) and 48 (302) will move back to pick 72.

So for each one:

Pick 11: 1063; either 29 (653) and 32 (584) moves to 58/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) moves to 66 if we trade them forward
12: 1014; 29 (653), 32 (584) moves to 54/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) moves to 62
13: 970; 29 (653), 32 (584) to 51/39 (446), 42 (395), 48 (302) to 58
14: 929; 29, 32 to 48/39, 42, 48 to 55
15: 890; 29, 32 to 45/39, 42, 48 to 52
16: 854; 29, 32 to 43/39, 42, 48 to 49
17: 820; 29, 32 to 41/39, 42 to 72
18: 788; 29, 32 to 39/39, 42 to 69

That's not necessarily the case still. There are a lot of moving parts still. Depends on whether or not Lombard goes before Kako or not, how many trades Brisbane does, where Ashcroft goes.

 

[Cup_o_Jobe]

Still think we may trade both the second rounders out.

Let's say we trade both out looking for a F1 or couple of F2s. Really bolster our 2025 war-chest.

A Kako bid comes at 13 (969 points) or later, we can match with: 40 (429), 46 (331), and 53 (233). If it comes earlier, we can use pick 54 as well. Not ideal but doable and hedges that risk (We can also just wait until pick 13 or later and do the the trades if no bid yet).

We then use the 2025 war-chest to trade back in to first or second round whenever we see someone we like/a willing trade partner, once the Kako bid comes in. We also can grab a slider late with pick 54 (which will come in some with all the bid matching), and have 65 in the back pocket to nab Ngyuen (either directly or by matching a late bid).

I just don't see the "value" of keeping 40/46/53 for direct picks versus using 28 and 31 (which will be very popular picks) to obtain overs in a draft night trade. I think we end up in a net better position trading those out and then jumping back in one or twice early and grabbing some cheapies late.

 

[ant555]

Still think we may trade both the second rounders out.

Let's say we trade both out looking for a F1 or couple of F2s. Really bolster our 2025 war-chest.

A Kako bid comes at 13 (969 points) or later, we can match with: 40 (429), 46 (331), and 53 (233). If it comes earlier, we can use pick 54 as well. Not ideal but doable and hedges that risk (We can also just wait until pick 13 or later and do the the trades if no bid yet).

We then use the 2025 war-chest to trade back in to first or second round whenever we see someone we like/a willing trade partner, once the Kako bid comes in. We also can grab a slider late with pick 54 (which will come in some with all the bid matching), and have 65 in the back pocket to nab Ngyuen (either directly or by matching a late bid).

I just don't see the "value" of keeping 40/46/53 for direct picks versus using 28 and 31 (which will be very popular picks) to obtain overs in a draft night trade. I think we end up in a net better position trading those out and then jumping back in one or twice early and grabbing some cheapies late.

2025 war chest is good but they I am not seeing the easy trade back in given most clubs have traded out. If we are getting good value for 28/31 to trade out then we will pay a price to jump back in and also run the risk of not being able to without paying overs. 40 will end up mid 30's and 46 around 40.
With the bidding changes next year there will be a different look to pick trading as well as points will only be allocated up to the end of the third round.
The risk of trading out will be getting back in without having to pay overs to do so. It may be more value to take two picks 7 or 8 picks later than where 28/31 fall.

 

[Vindicater]

Just draft runners please

 

[eth-dog]

Not sure it’s a remote possibility but would Ess trade 28 and 31 for Geelong’s FF? You’d still have the points to match a reasonable Kako bid and gain collateral for next years draft or to trade back into this years after Kako has been taken.

I have no idea whether we’d entertain the trade either but apparently there are a couple of players around that late 20’s/early 30’s mark we are interested in.

Probably but are you able to?

 

[eth-dog]

Brisbane can move all those picks out on the night can’t they**??
Would it make sense for us to move 46&54 out for 34??
**can only go in on the night with as many pick as list spots they have, but turn those 6 picks into 20 picks on the night if they want(is that how it works??)

Yeah but it depends on where a bid for Ashcroft lands.

 

[year of the cat]

Probably but are you able to?

Trade our FF? Absolutely. In fact subsequent to my post there’s been an article in the HS stating we are looking to do it in order to secure Dodson or Gerreyn.

 

[eth-dog]

2025 war chest is good but they I am not seeing the easy trade back in given most clubs have traded out. If we are getting good value for 28/31 to trade out then we will pay a price to jump back in and also run the risk of not being able to without paying overs. 40 will end up mid 30's and 46 around 40.
With the bidding changes next year there will be a different look to pick trading as well as points will only be allocated up to the end of the third round.
The risk of trading out will be getting back in without having to pay overs to do so. It may be more value to take two picks 7 or 8 picks later than where 28/31 fall.

40 will end up 38/39 at best mate. Only picks ahead of it that might be used in a bid are 27, 28, 34 and 38, all bar one of which move forward, not back.

Trade our FF? Absolutely. In fact subsequent to my post there’s been an article in the HS stating we are looking to do it in order to secure Dodson or Gerreyn.

Just wasn't sure where you were with the 2 year rolling cycle.

 

[jdstorm]

2025 war chest is good but they I am not seeing the easy trade back in given most clubs have traded out. If we are getting good value for 28/31 to trade out then we will pay a price to jump back in and also run the risk of not being able to without paying overs. 40 will end up mid 30's and 46 around 40.
With the bidding changes next year there will be a different look to pick trading as well as points will only be allocated up to the end of the third round.
The risk of trading out will be getting back in without having to pay overs to do so. It may be more value to take two picks 7 or 8 picks later than where 28/31 fall.

I think the trick with trading those picks will be finding a 2 for 1 trade down.

It will be trading down about 10-20 spots for a future asset.

Like you’ve said Essendon don’t want to trade out because getting back in will be hard. What they do need is to not waste good picks on bid matching.

so it seems that splitting the pick into the future is the only logical move

 

[Andronicus]

Any academy or F/S gems coming through in the next few years?