Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[ant555]

I think the trick with trading those picks will be finding a 2 for 1 trade down.

It will be trading down about 10-20 spots for a future asset.

Like you’ve said Essendon don’t want to trade out because getting back in will be hard. What they do need is to not waste good picks on bid matching.

so it seems that splitting the pick into the future is the only logical move

I do not see it as wasting good picks.
If they do it fine but if they do not then we are still taking a first round selection plus two early third rounds.
There seems to just be an obsession with this years draft and some sort of idea that we will be able to trade in and out at will.
What Rosa needs to do is set up the best scenario for the next three drafts. They have managed to get this draft back to being a strong hand and also set up next year so we have a good hand.
There is no one logical move. The win for trading out 9 is the fact we now have a chance to get 3 top 50 picks this year plus have a decent set of picks next year. It gives us options.
Seems to be a lot of want my cake and eat it theory and no bigger picture stuff which has been an issue with us in the past.

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

Any academy or F/S gems coming through in the next few years?

James Hird Academy thread keeps you updated with this stuff.
Warning- it will give you high hopes for Bewicks kid who is still a number of years away.

Recruiting - James Hird Academy (Father/Son and Next Generation)

www.bigfooty.com

 

[faible]

Geelong isn’t an overly smart team to bet against.

On this, you’re not betting against them, you’re playing in two different currencies.

We’ve got Kako irrespective of what picks we use to match him with, it’s what other value we can get.

Is it better for us to use those current picks to match him, and have some selections in the 40s this year? Is it better to take an extra F1 in to next year and use those later picks to match Kako and just take some SSP / Rookies to fill out the list?

You assume worst case scenario, where you’ve got Geelong winning a Premiership, and you’ve still got 18 (wherever it slides to with f/s and academy picks) which is useful currency for draft or trade.

 

[IHurley]

Still think we may trade both the second rounders out.

Let's say we trade both out looking for a F1 or couple of F2s. Really bolster our 2025 war-chest.

A Kako bid comes at 13 (969 points) or later, we can match with: 40 (429), 46 (331), and 53 (233). If it comes earlier, we can use pick 54 as well. Not ideal but doable and hedges that risk (We can also just wait until pick 13 or later and do the the trades if no bid yet).

We then use the 2025 war-chest to trade back in to first or second round whenever we see someone we like/a willing trade partner, once the Kako bid comes in. We also can grab a slider late with pick 54 (which will come in some with all the bid matching), and have 65 in the back pocket to nab Ngyuen (either directly or by matching a late bid).

I just don't see the "value" of keeping 40/46/53 for direct picks versus using 28 and 31 (which will be very popular picks) to obtain overs in a draft night trade. I think we end up in a net better position trading those out and then jumping back in one or twice early and grabbing some cheapies late.

That makes the most sense but it will be sequential. Say there's no bid before 10, we will offload 31. Then offload 28 if no bid before 13. We will target clubs expecting to finish mid range as there's no reason for them to say no to offloading an F2. We can game this (ridiculous) system brilliantly but it requires patience.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think pick 18 tigers is the target with an F1

Hopefully a Matt Whitlock/Dattolli/Faull sneak inside that

Giving us access to either
Taj Hotton
Joe Berry
Lindsay
Jack Whitlock
Shanahan
Trainor (which would be worse case)