AFL Dream Team 2008

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Now back to the footy. And by the way it's pleasant not having to put up with RT every second post for the last 20 odd pages...loser.:p

The most trouble i am having is with the forwards.Usually i like to pick those forwards which spend time on the half forward flank or in the midfield (however rare they are). A couple of names popped up which i think could do quite well.

S.JOHNSON (Geel) and
A.DAVEY (Mel).

DAVEY does spend time on the half forward flank and has the ability to rack em up big time.
S.JOHNSON-i dont think his price will go up during the season but still manages plenty of possessions and loves a goal (that is if he can stay out of trouble with the fuzz).

I don't see the flash as being a DTer unless he moves permanently up to a wing. I guess with a new coach this year it is possible so I would have a look in the first couple of rounds.
Stevie J is one I'm not sure about. Was last year a one-off? He is one I will hold off on and upgrade to later if he continues his excellent form of last season
 
This may have been posted somewhere else in the forum.

Players cost - They seemed to have increased the cost of the top end players when compared to last year. I don't remember a player costing more than around $440,000 last year.
Where Rookies all seemed to be priced close to the same levels as last year.
If this is the case do you think they have adjusted the way they calculate players value?
If they have adjusted the player value calculators then I can see Cheap players having even more upside than last year.

I think a key is in two steps.
1. Most obvious is picking players that will score the most points
2. (HARDEST PART) Picking which players will increase/decrease in price and when to trade those players for their maximum benefit.

Now, personally I think it is important for me to have a basic understanding of what a player will be worth based on stats.

eg - 3 game rolling average of 120 = $450,000 player 100 = $400,000 80 = $350,000, 60 = $300,000.......

This will help me get a better idea of price movements throughout the season.

Can anyone help me with their thoughts/knowledge from last year? or even this year?

I just think MANY of the top players are not worth their price tags this year based on last years formula for determining player prices.

eg Jimmy Bartel at $496,000 ish

the multiplier this year has changed, thats y
last year it was like 3957 or something like that, this year it is 4343.40
all that means is someone worth $4343.40 should get one point etc
so someone worth $434340 should average 100 points

the players initial prices this year is simply their average from lsat year times the multiplier
eg bartel avg =114
114x4343.40
=$495147
i cant remember wat bartels exact average was so its not going to exactly match up, but you can see the point
as for price changes its a little bit more tricky
basically no matter what the players 3 round average is they will always retain at least 75% of their price (assuming they dont score negative)
bartel again for example assuming first 3 rounds he averaged 100
75%x496000=$372000 (this is the lowest his price can fall to in a week as long as he doesnt score negative)
25%(cause u've already accounted for 75% of his price)x100x4343.40
=$108585
so bartels price would be $372000 + $108585= $480585

i hope that all makes sense
i am aware i didnt get bartels exact price because i cant remember his exact average, only for an example
you can manipulate that for break even but i havent been bothered to do it yet

i think from memory the multiplier has gone up 10% (roughly) whereas the salary cap has only gone up 7% meaning theoretically its harder this year as you have less 'purchasing power' for your salary cap
 

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the multiplier this year has changed, thats y
last year it was like 3957 or something like that, this year it is 4343.40
all that means is someone worth $4343.40 should get one point etc
so someone worth $434340 should average 100 points

the players initial prices this year is simply their average from lsat year times the multiplier
eg bartel avg =114
114x4343.40
=$495147
i cant remember wat bartels exact average was so its not going to exactly match up, but you can see the point
as for price changes its a little bit more tricky
basically no matter what the players 3 round average is they will always retain at least 75% of their price (assuming they dont score negative)
bartel again for example assuming first 3 rounds he averaged 100
75%x496000=$372000 (this is the lowest his price can fall to in a week as long as he doesnt score negative)
25%(cause u've already accounted for 75% of his price)x100x4343.40
=$108585
so bartels price would be $372000 + $108585= $480585

i hope that all makes sense
i am aware i didnt get bartels exact price because i cant remember his exact average, only for an example
you can manipulate that for break even but i havent been bothered to do it yet

i think from memory the multiplier has gone up 10% (roughly) whereas the salary cap has only gone up 7% meaning theoretically its harder this year as you have less 'purchasing power' for your salary cap

That looks difficult, lucky we have Grimlock's FFgenie to do it all for us :D
 
:thumbsu: frantelle. bookmarked.

For this year rookies need 18-19 as their average. What was it last year? Did they keep it the same?
exactly thats y ruck cash cows are stupid
just had a look at last year and kane cornes started at $412,500 after averaging 105 in 2006 meaning hte exact mutiplier last year was 3928.57
whereas if someone averaged 105pts last year this year they would start at $456057

just had a quick check on rookie prices last year, a large majority were $82,300 meaning their 3round average for a breakeven was just under 21 (20.9) whereas this years is closer to 19 meaning its easier to more profitable cash cows (strictly theoretically, hard to pick many j selwoods and rodans)

also keep in mind there is usually a fair bit of rounding within the price calculations, i have done a proper spreadsheet as to wat a players average is compared to their price, and its within $800 most times but never exact because of the roundig (except for the players with discounts)
 
also with the price changes just keep in mind they mite change the %'s of a players retainer value (the 75% and 25%) which will change the sensitivity to how quickly a player can go up/down
wont no if this has changed until after rd3
in saying that i doubt they will change this area too much
 

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the multiplier this year has changed, thats y
last year it was like 3957 or something like that, this year it is 4343.40
all that means is someone worth $4343.40 should get one point etc
so someone worth $434340 should average 100 points

the players initial prices this year is simply their average from lsat year times the multiplier
eg bartel avg =114
114x4343.40
=$495147
i cant remember wat bartels exact average was so its not going to exactly match up, but you can see the point
as for price changes its a little bit more tricky
basically no matter what the players 3 round average is they will always retain at least 75% of their price (assuming they dont score negative)
bartel again for example assuming first 3 rounds he averaged 100
75%x496000=$372000 (this is the lowest his price can fall to in a week as long as he doesnt score negative)
25%(cause u've already accounted for 75% of his price)x100x4343.40
=$108585
so bartels price would be $372000 + $108585= $480585

i hope that all makes sense
i am aware i didnt get bartels exact price because i cant remember his exact average, only for an example
you can manipulate that for break even but i havent been bothered to do it yet

i think from memory the multiplier has gone up 10% (roughly) whereas the salary cap has only gone up 7% meaning theoretically its harder this year as you have less 'purchasing power' for your salary cap

Nice post F. Good to see your form continuing from last night.

In laymans terms rookies are better value this year because players with a pre-existing average are priced in higher(due to multiplier increase) whereas rookies have not changed.

EG - If a rookie increased his average last year to 50 he would have been worth 196K wheras this year with the same increase will be worth $217K

One question Frantelle, does the formula effectively set a 125% cap for increases as well? Asking more in relation to early price rookie increases.
 
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