balmainforever
Dibs
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL Futures 2012
- Thread starter Athomas
- Start date
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- Banned
- #227
Okay, I'll bite.
And of course Richmond haven't got any better since 2010 and 2011.
Yes, of course you have. Richmond are vastly under rated, in my opinion.
But given Geelong at the Gabba weren't an 80% chance of victory, I don't think you guys are either. That's my point.
That depends who you talk to. I had Geelong at around 80%, and them kicking the firs 6 (?) goals in those conditions suggests I may have been right.
Bookies odds aren't the be all and end all. Yes, they are objective, but often objectivity can lead to less informed opinions.
Remember when everyone was bagging West Coast for taking Naitanui pick 1? Eagles fans defended him and now look at how good he is.
All I'm saying is that sometimes bias can be blinding, and other times seeing a team play week in week out can allow you to analyse them better than most.
Jack Riewoldt was paying $81 for the Coleman after round 8 or 9 in 2010 despite being 3rd, and I backed him. If you asked me then if I thought he was a 1.2% chance, I would have said I think he's a 40% chance.
I understand you were using odds as an example but I just wanted to point out the flaws in that. I realise that my opinion could still be wrong and we may only be a 50% chance of beating Brisbane in Brisbane, and am not denying that.
books had them at 1.30, don't really see how opinions are relevant here.
odds are far sharper than the opinions of the masses.
- Banned
- #230
Crows knocked off the swans to to 5-1 now.
I am not crowing about it (oh poor pun Duritz) because it's about the only thing that's been ok for me this weekend. But the top 8 looks pretty solid for them.
I am not crowing about it (oh poor pun Duritz) because it's about the only thing that's been ok for me this weekend. But the top 8 looks pretty solid for them.
yet you took the Swans at the line?
you make no sense at all duritz
you make no sense at all duritz
- Banned
- #232
Madness, I know.
Over rated the swans on last weeks win. Wrong again.
Got a runaway train you want stopped? Just let me back it.
how long was your photoshop course?
- Banned
- #234
You've lost me there.
- Banned
- #235
I fail to see how any team that was considered 'a fair chance' to be beaten by Port of all teams, is now, after only just getting over the line, a great bet at even money to finish in the 8.
No, I gleaned all I needed to the first time.
A team that struggled to put away Port, was in fact behind at 3qtr time, maybe has now turned the corner.
Right.
Aaaand up they got against the Swans. Into $1.55 now, from $2.00 last week.
You back them Vince?
iluvparis
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Lol was bound to happen after the caning you copped in here.
Well played.
Well played.
Vince Masuka
Club Legend
I did not.
Having a rough trot at the moment, put the house on the market, that is what I heard is needed during a cold patch?
Will take time to sell though, so I missed the even money. I am sure that the 2.00 will be unders again somewhere along the line, if they paid out at round 6 its unlikely the bookies would have enough money for the next season.
True North
Norm Smith Medallist
They had to win as a $4.00 shot to shorten from $2.00 to $1.70 (Betfair).
I just don't see what there is to "Crow" about.
My biggest bet ever was Adelaide to miss the 8, so maybe I'm hater gonna hate.
I do think Adelaide will make the 8 now, the 30 cent haircut taken waiting for a win against Syd was worth every cent imo. If they had have lost they would be far greater than $2 over the next month.
I just don't see what there is to "Crow" about.
My biggest bet ever was Adelaide to miss the 8, so maybe I'm hater gonna hate.
I do think Adelaide will make the 8 now, the 30 cent haircut taken waiting for a win against Syd was worth every cent imo. If they had have lost they would be far greater than $2 over the next month.
The_Doctor
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I would not be backing Adelaide now, there next month is Geelong, Carlton, Collingwood and Fremantle (Subiaco)
The_Doctor
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Im thinking about backing Hawthorn for the Minor Premiership. They are sitting 3-3 now but there next 6 games are
Melbourne (MCG)
Fremantle (Aurora)
Richmond (MCG)
North Melboure (Aurora)
Port Adelaide (AAMI)
Brisbane (MCG)
They shouldnt drop any of those games and i think they will be sitting 9-3 as they hit the bye. Anyone got any thoughts?
Melbourne (MCG)
Fremantle (Aurora)
Richmond (MCG)
North Melboure (Aurora)
Port Adelaide (AAMI)
Brisbane (MCG)
They shouldnt drop any of those games and i think they will be sitting 9-3 as they hit the bye. Anyone got any thoughts?
Nothing
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- Jul 30, 2009
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The true comedy is your weekly bets were against the Crows then you brag about a futures bet shortening when they win. Either your weekly bets were stupid or your futures bet was taken at the wrong time (and you got lucky).
I think they can easily put up 9-10 in a row. You have to wonder how much longer the Bombers & Crows will last at the top before dropping 2-3 games in a hurry. The Eagles are bound to come to a halt with their horrific injury list. I can certainly see them being top 2 at halfway and challenging for that top spot later in the year. It just doesn't look to me that we will have a team being 19-3 like recent years.
The_Doctor
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The Crows will start to drop off immediately over the next month i think, the bombers on the other hand should remain around the top until the Bye. If they were to drop 2 games out of the Rich, Melb, Syd games before the bye then they will be in big trouble. Over the 2nd half of the year though they will drop off though playing Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton, Fremantle (Subi) and 2 trips to Adelaide.
West Coast are the obvious danger imo but the key position injuries will have to catch up with them at some stage i think. They have the game vs Essendon this week which i think will be huge. If they drop that they have the Derby and a trip to Brisbane before the bye which could see them drop another game.
After the bye they have Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood (Twice), 2 trips to Adelaide, a trip to Hobart another Derby. I would feel pretty confident in them losing half of those matches
- Banned
- #245
Using the table I posted last week re Adelaide's chances, they are now 5 wins 1 loss, with the following future probabilities (unaltered from last week) -
round opp chance
7 cats 0.4
8 carl 0.18
9 coll 0.45
10 freo 0.25
11 bye
12 stk 0.6
13 north 0.45
14 rich 0.7
15 port 0.6
16 gws 0.95
17 wcst 0.25
18 geel 0.15
19 ess 0.6
20 freo 0.6
21 bris 0.65
22 melb 0.75
23 gcst 0.9
This gives them 8.48 further wins for 13.48 wins total.
I think that'll be enough to scrape into 8th.
I'll post more later re the other sides, Hawthorn etc.
round opp chance
7 cats 0.4
8 carl 0.18
9 coll 0.45
10 freo 0.25
11 bye
12 stk 0.6
13 north 0.45
14 rich 0.7
15 port 0.6
16 gws 0.95
17 wcst 0.25
18 geel 0.15
19 ess 0.6
20 freo 0.6
21 bris 0.65
22 melb 0.75
23 gcst 0.9
This gives them 8.48 further wins for 13.48 wins total.
I think that'll be enough to scrape into 8th.
I'll post more later re the other sides, Hawthorn etc.
- Banned
- #247
I had $1330 on the Crows for the 8 at about round 2, at $1.93.
The line bet was $600 on the Swans at the line.
However, they are irrelevant to one another, because one winning did not preclude the other from winning. They are related events, but only to about a 4.5% amount.
Doc, I think your main danger is Carlton. They've got the easiest draw and unlike other years, they seem to have a side now capable of challenging the big boys. I could see Carlton going 18-4 or something in that vicinity.
can't see anyone knocking off the Blues for top either, their final run home is a breeze.
- Banned
- #250
I've got the minor premiership as a race in two at the moment between the Blues and the Eagles... but I do concede that with the Eagles many injury worries they could drop away quickly.
$3.50 for the top 4 Collingwood, that looks appealing to me. They're only 1 game out.
$3.50 for the top 4 Collingwood, that looks appealing to me. They're only 1 game out.
