- Banned
- #201
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL Futures 2012
- Thread starter Athomas
- Start date
- Tagged users None
So every team in the league is better than them apart from gold coast and GWS maybe :roll eyes:
The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
- 2,393
- 104
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Fremantle, Essendon and west Coast are all better than them.
Brisbane are will more than likely beat them at the Gabba and and the G i would be on Melbourne. Obviously they are going to win at least one of them matches.
I also said they were 50-50 with St Kilda, Richmond and Port
Brisbane are will more than likely beat them at the Gabba and and the G i would be on Melbourne. Obviously they are going to win at least one of them matches.
I also said they were 50-50 with St Kilda, Richmond and Port
asanque
Premium Platinum
I like it and I think its pretty safe.
Agree.
You'd have to think that pies have turned the corner now. Good bet if you go big and are prepared to wait.
- Banned
- #210
Lads don't use "win/loss. 50/50" stuff, give the team an actual probability between 0 and 1, and sum them up. Just as easy and much more accurate.
If you think cool are big odds at 1.40 then prove it. Estimate their probability of each game and show us what you think their total wins will be.
If you think cool are big odds at 1.40 then prove it. Estimate their probability of each game and show us what you think their total wins will be.
The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
- 2,393
- 104
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Lol how on earth are you meant to make an accurate assessment of a match 10-12 weeks away?
- Banned
- #212
To the best of your current knowledge. Those who set the market don't have a DeLorean either so the handicap cancels out.
that's why they're called futures.
Port (AAMI) 0.6
Syd (MCG) 0.5
Ess 0.3
Haw 0.2
St.k 0.5
Freo (MCG) 0.6
GWS 1
Ade (AAMI) 0.5
Melb 0.9
GC 0.9
North 0.5
Carlton 0.2
Bris (Gabba) 0.8
Dogs 0.8
Fre (Away) 0.3
Ess 0.4
Port (MCG) 0.9
= 9.9 + our 1 win = 10.9
That gives 11 wins, but it's possible we could win 1-2 more, also possible we could win 1-2 less don't get me wrong, but I could see us winning 12 with a bit of luck.
Have definitely considered this, the only reason I'm against it is IF he gets up I'd be spewing I didn't back it.
- Banned
- #215
Some of those numbers are pretty generous.... 0.8 vs us at the Gabba??? No one will start that short against us at the gabba this year. Even Geelong were considered a less chance than 0.8
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,653
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
50-50 against the Swans at the G is also too generous for mine given their improvement this year.
As much as I think he has over rated Richmond in his post above. I actually think they will win at the G. They play the G a lot better than the swans do and I believe have a good record against them.
True North
Norm Smith Medallist
North Melbourne draw:
@ WCE .23
v WB .72
@PA .63
v BL .80
@ HAW .30
@GC .87
v ADEL .73
@STK .35
v WCE .40
v CARL .25
@ RICH .51
v MELB .85
@WB .72
@ ESS .42
@ COLL .25
v FREO .75
@ GWS .95
Total 9.73 + 3 = 12.73
Our % is better than Adelaide so $2.00 not so flash.
@ WCE .23
v WB .72
@PA .63
v BL .80
@ HAW .30
@GC .87
v ADEL .73
@STK .35
v WCE .40
v CARL .25
@ RICH .51
v MELB .85
@WB .72
@ ESS .42
@ COLL .25
v FREO .75
@ GWS .95
Total 9.73 + 3 = 12.73
Our % is better than Adelaide so $2.00 not so flash.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,653
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
If the bookies put up $2 Sydney they will be steamrolled with punters trying to back them.
People have underrated our improvement, and we have beaten the Swans at the G the last 2 times, including last year by 45 points.
Our last 8 games v Brisbane:
6-1-1.
Our games v Brisbane under Hardwick:
2010: 105-86 Richmond Win at Gabba
2011: 124-98 Richmond Win at MCG
2011: 125-94 Richmond Win at Gabba.
We play the ground well and have a good record against you. We won't start with the bookies at $1.20, but I believe we are an 80% chance of winning that game.
i notice you didn't mention Brown only played one of those three games and in that game they lost a key position player very early in the match. you being a Richmond supporter would know this.
Tigers are still no good, and have no more than a 0.55 chance of beating Brisbane away.
Tigers are still no good, and have no more than a 0.55 chance of beating Brisbane away.
- Banned
- #222
And we're getting to be a bit better now than 2010 and 2011.
I know that. But they must think it's not going to be a blow out. TAB has Richmond at 2.25 for them to beat Sydney first.
because that includes the ~20% chance of them losing this week.
odds will not be near 2.25 next week
odds will not be near 2.25 next week
- Banned
- #225
*puff puff, pant pant*
Phew! Sorry guys, I'm a bit out of breath, because I had to run to this thread to deliver this awesome news! I've discovered the Lions are certainties to make the 8, and are MASSIVE odds!!!
It's all legit, take a look, I've worked it out!!! ---->
Currently, we're 2-3. Rest of the season:
round team chance
6 ess 0.8
7 coll 0.8
8 gws 1
9 norf 0.85
10 wcst 0.8
11 bye
12 haw 0.75
13 wbd 0.95
14 melb 0.95
15 syd 0.85
16 stk 0.9
17 gcst 1
18 wcst 0.8
19 rich 0.9
20 carl 0.8
21 adel 0.85
22 port 0.95
23 wbd 0.95
This puts us at an amazing 14.9 wins for the year!!!
You know, we'll probably even make the top 4 with that.......
Phew! Sorry guys, I'm a bit out of breath, because I had to run to this thread to deliver this awesome news! I've discovered the Lions are certainties to make the 8, and are MASSIVE odds!!!
It's all legit, take a look, I've worked it out!!! ---->
Currently, we're 2-3. Rest of the season:
round team chance
6 ess 0.8
7 coll 0.8
8 gws 1
9 norf 0.85
10 wcst 0.8
11 bye
12 haw 0.75
13 wbd 0.95
14 melb 0.95
15 syd 0.85
16 stk 0.9
17 gcst 1
18 wcst 0.8
19 rich 0.9
20 carl 0.8
21 adel 0.85
22 port 0.95
23 wbd 0.95
This puts us at an amazing 14.9 wins for the year!!!
You know, we'll probably even make the top 4 with that.......
