AFL Futures 2012

[The_Doctor]

Carlton have got a big 4 weeks before and after the bye, im not sure they could stay "up" for that long. Cats, Eagles, Hawks, Collingwood all in a row is going to be tough and as a result of that i think they will be very vulnerable to the Roos after that on a friday night as well.

I forgot to mention the Blues earlier as well, they are clearly as big a danger as West Coast.

I wouldnt say their final run home is a breeze St Kilda, Sydney and Essendon are all competitive so you wouldnt be shocked to see them drop a game there

 

[twarby]

yeah, tbh i havn't looked at their draw since the start of the year

pre season i had them undefeated in the last 10 or so, but with the form of those two you mentioned (Saints aren't a threat) its not as easy as i thought it would be.

still quite easy compared to some other clubs though

 

[carn tigez]

Geelong flag $7 - overs?

 

[KP78]

Geelong flag $7 - overs?

I think they are overs now but with Adel (a), Coll, Carl and Syd (a) in their next 6 I would expect them to drop at least one and maybe 2 or 3 of those and I think they may drift further. I am a Cats fan and I am sure a little bias but they genuinely give the impression to me that they are just getting the job done now, and will come home strong again, I have kept them safe already.

 

[carn tigez]

Will only drop 2 of those max and it won't be to Adelaide, I think only 1 of the other 3 personally.

I got the impression you were struggling early, there's no way you could say the Richmond or North games were just doing what is required. But the last 2 games Geelong seem to have stepped up a gear and it is still very early, I think the rise will continue. I'm tipping they will at least make the prelim and on the back of strong form shorten to around $3 by then for a possibly lay if another team is threatening.

I put a 0.5U bet on Coll/Geel quinella @ $21, I get the impression both teams will peak late and might go back to back in grand finals. Again I think it will shorten come finals time.

 

[KP78]

Will only drop 2 of those max and it won't be to Adelaide, I think only 1 of the other 3 personally.

I got the impression you were struggling early, there's no way you could say the Richmond or North games were just doing what is required. But the last 2 games Geelong seem to have stepped up a gear and it is still very early, I think the rise will continue. I'm tipping they will at least make the prelim and on the back of strong form shorten to around $3 by then for a possibly lay if another team is threatening.

I put a 0.5U bet on Coll/Geel quinella @ $21, I get the impression both teams will peak late and might go back to back in grand finals. Again I think it will shorten come finals time.

I think 1-2 is the most likely amount we will drop in the next 6, which actually will see us come in a little most likely. I am not 100% sold on Geelong v Adel, I have it as a 60/40 game personally.

In the NM and Rich games I think they were trying to do only what was required, or moreso, have been prepared to be able to do what is required, in one game it was enough, the other not.

Geelong will definitely shorten come finals time, the only question is whether they drift beyond 7, I have already kept them safe.

Nice bet on Coll/Geel quin, I think the Pies will come also but you would think someone is going to have to play WC in Perth to make the GF and that is going to be extremely tough. I have included them in most of my GF quinellas.

 

[carn tigez]

Yeah agree with all of that, well put

The only way I can see Geelong drifiting out to 10s or higher is if they drop a game or 2 that they shouldn't, and by a fair margin. Losing to the Crows by 35+ would be an example.

If that was to happen, I wouldn't be backing them anyway, so I'll take the 7s and hope it only shortens. A few less than impressive wins might see them go out to 8 maybe, though it would depend how the other contenders go.

All up I think the $7 on offer is great value and won't blow out much further. And now I have convinced myself to outlay 1.5U on the Cats at $7

 

[The Big Woofer]

I really don't see a drop-off coming for Essendon, i have them going into the break 10-1 or 9-2 at worst & after beating WCE this weekend i think we see their price go from $17 to $11....i think they are a genuine top 4 chance, most of their injuries are short term & i think they've shown they have better depth than most.

 

[KP78]

I really don't see a drop-off coming for Essendon, i have them going into the break 10-1 or 9-2 at worst & after beating WCE this weekend i think we see their price go from $17 to $11....i think they are a genuine top 4 chance, most of their injuries are short term & i think they've shown they have better depth than most.

That is a big statement to make about Essendon, who would have thought, but looking at their draw I can see exactly how you came to that conclusion and it seriously looks possible.

Right now for the top 4 could be a reasonable bet.

 

[The Big Woofer]

That is a big statement to make about Essendon, who would have thought, but looking at their draw I can see exactly how you came to that conclusion and it seriously looks possible.

Right now for the top 4 could be a reasonable bet.

yes hand on heart i must admit i totally over-looked them pre-season but not any more, i am very respectful of them & outlaid some money on them.

 

[The_Doctor]

Expect them to fall in a whole in the second half of the year, they have a very tough run home

 

[bballscout]

Crows top 8 is a good bet, they are underrated.

Also Dockers top 8 and Saints to miss out.

 

[Swan4Brownlow]

Crows top 8 is a good bet, they are underrated.

Also Dockers top 8 and Saints to miss out.

Value on Saints to miss has disappeared, they were 3.35 to miss the 8 before the Fremantle match

 

[Duritz]

Damnit... wish I hadn't locked in the Adelaide top 8 odds!! They'll be much better in a few weeks!!!

 

[True North]

I had 30u Adelaide to miss the 8. I have some creative investing to do for the rest of the year! Up 1 unit this round so here we come!

 

[Veroldin]

collingwood top 4 @ 2.50

collingwood flag @ 7.50

they're under the radar a bit ATM

 

[Duritz]

collingwood top 4 @ 2.50

collingwood flag @ 7.50

they're under the radar a bit ATM

Agree with this. The Pies are going better than people think.

 

[uptheblues]

Surely Geelong/Collingwood quinella at $51s is massive overs?

 

[The_Doctor]

Surely Geelong/Collingwood quinella at $51s is massive overs?

Not on this years form, at least one of them will miss the top 4

 

[ManWithNoName]

I've chucked $25 on Crameri for the Coleman. Paying $26, seems huge overs.

 

[Veroldin]

all franklin needs to do is kick straight to win the coleman.

no chance

 

[Donkson]

yeah no chance of buddy kicking straight.

 

[DerpWerls]

$2 for Melbourne's first win to be vs GWS in round 12?

They play Sydney, Carlton, Essendon, Collingwood then a bye. The bye makes me worried they will lose.

 

[Veroldin]

that is what I meant sorry if it wasn't clear. crameri good value

 

[The Big Woofer]

I've chucked $25 on Crameri for the Coleman. Paying $26, seems huge overs.

agree, i took $51 with betstar last week.....still $26 & that's way overs....Crameri also will play a lot under the roof during winter with others will have more games outside on some lower scoring nights. Has GWS next week so might get a nice bag there....only 4 behind Walker whos out for 2.