Review #AFL Logic - Trading picks 2 years ahead

[Carmo]

I can understand why the pick points system change was delayed until next year.

I can understand why the NGA was brought into this year.

Can someone explain to me the logic or value in why trading picks two years into the future was delayed until next year? If you know the pick points system is going to change and you trade all your picks this year and then that stuffs you for next year, too bad, err on the side of caution. What logic can others see for delaying it.

The cynic in me looks at quite a few players wanting to get to the SA clubs and goes hmmm..... not having pick trading two years ahead really hampers that. Freo look ok, they've got players wanting to get there but they already had picks lined up (for McDonald who the missed out on but they would've known Bolton was a chance as well). Am I too cynical.

 

[FR0GGY]

I can understand why the pick points system change was delayed until next year.

I can understand why the NGA was brought into this year.

Can someone explain to me the logic or value in why trading picks two years into the future was stopped? If you know the pick points system is going to change and you trade all your picks this year and then that stuffs you for next year, too bad, err on the side of caution. What logic can others see for delaying it.

The cynic in me looks at quite a few players wanting to get to the SA clubs and goes hmmm..... not having pick trading two years ahead really hampers that. Freo look ok, they've got players wanting to get there but they already had picks lined up (for McDonald who the missed out on but they would've known Bolton was a chance as well). Am I too cynical.

Stopped? Isn’t it coming in next year?

 

[Carmo]

Stopped? Isn’t it coming in next year?

Yes it is. I mean why didn't it come in this year?

 

[FR0GGY]

Yes it is. I mean why didn't it come in this year?

Probably to give clubs more time to evaluate lists and future draftees.

 

[cmndstab]

Trading two years ahead? Christ almighty, it's getting ridiculous now. Why not ten years ahead while we're at it?

That said, once they bring it in, we should just immediately trade our 2026 and 2027 picks into 2025, then the following year trade our 2028 picks into 2026, and just keep doing that forever. Get three years worth of picks next year and then just keep borrowing ahead so we never end up behind.

 

[Golumless]

I can understand why the pick points system change was delayed until next year.

I can understand why the NGA was brought into this year.

Can someone explain to me the logic or value in why trading picks two years into the future was delayed until next year? If you know the pick points system is going to change and you trade all your picks this year and then that stuffs you for next year, too bad, err on the side of caution. What logic can others see for delaying it.

The cynic in me looks at quite a few players wanting to get to the SA clubs and goes hmmm..... not having pick trading two years ahead really hampers that. Freo look ok, they've got players wanting to get there but they already had picks lined up (for McDonald who the missed out on but they would've known Bolton was a chance as well). Am I too cynical.

Imagine being a club that traded pick 4 for someone and having that change to pick 2 after the fact due to last-minute changes to the draft. That would never happen to anyone.

 

[Scorpus]

Here's why I think they didn't introduce it.

Let's say you had a club that wanted to trade for a player coming out of contract in 2024. That club makes moves in the 2023 draft, paying overs to push their picks into 2024 and load up in the 2024 draft.

They would have done so knowing that to trade for the player they want in 2024, they'd have 2024 and 2025 draft assets available. Not heaps to work with, so they push 2023 picks into 2024 at a premium.

Now suddenly the AFL in 2024 makes it so you can trade two years in advance. Now in 2024, that club that wanted to trade for the player, can do so with 2024, 2025 and 2026 picks. Which they hadn't planned for.

The moves they made in 2023 to have draft value in 2024 is now devalued, because instead of paying overs to shift picks into 2024, they could have just included 2026 picks in their value bundle.

Essentially, because assets were already being traded for 2024, they can't fairly change the rules in 2024

 

[FR0GGY]

Trading two years ahead? Christ almighty, it's getting ridiculous now. Why not ten years ahead while we're at it?

That said, once they bring it in, we should just immediately trade our 2026 and 2027 picks into 2025, then the following year trade our 2028 picks into 2026, and just keep doing that forever. Get three years worth of picks next year and then just keep borrowing ahead so we never end up behind.

All well and good but there’s always a premium to trade in.

 

[adelaidecrows]

I can understand why the pick points system change was delayed until next year.

I can understand why the NGA was brought into this year.

Can someone explain to me the logic or value in why trading picks two years into the future was delayed until next year? If you know the pick points system is going to change and you trade all your picks this year and then that stuffs you for next year, too bad, err on the side of caution. What logic can others see for delaying it.

The cynic in me looks at quite a few players wanting to get to the SA clubs and goes hmmm..... not having pick trading two years ahead really hampers that. Freo look ok, they've got players wanting to get there but they already had picks lined up (for McDonald who the missed out on but they would've known Bolton was a chance as well). Am I too cynical.

If I have to guess its because several clubs have already reached the point that they have to participate in the draft this year or the next year due to the future trading rules. They probably want to give clubs an opportunity to plan properly first around the new rules and let their current planning run its course. Because i am almost certain as the day is long that Port will throw every future draft pick they can at luring missing pieces until theyve maxed out and it would have been as soon as this year. In fact it would have surprised me if there were club recruiters already trying to sell future firsts 2 years down the track. 100% Port would have been one of them if this occurred.

 

[Carmo]

Trading two years ahead? Christ almighty, it's getting ridiculous now. Why not ten years ahead while we're at it?

That said, once they bring it in, we should just immediately trade our 2026 and 2027 picks into 2025, then the following year trade our 2028 picks into 2026, and just keep doing that forever. Get three years worth of picks next year and then just keep borrowing ahead so we never end up behind.

Two years ahead is really sensible to me. At that point you have enough options that nearly every trade should be able to get close to reasonable value.

 

[rabidcrow]

I can understand why the pick points system change was delayed until next year.

I can understand why the NGA was brought into this year.

Can someone explain to me the logic or value in why trading picks two years into the future was delayed until next year? If you know the pick points system is going to change and you trade all your picks this year and then that stuffs you for next year, too bad, err on the side of caution. What logic can others see for delaying it.

The cynic in me looks at quite a few players wanting to get to the SA clubs and goes hmmm..... not having pick trading two years ahead really hampers that. Freo look ok, they've got players wanting to get there but they already had picks lined up (for McDonald who the missed out on but they would've known Bolton was a chance as well). Am I too cynical.

Do you really want pick 4, F1 2025 and 2026 up for grabs at the moment? All it will do is raise the price of any decent player to 2 or 3 first rounders.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[FR0GGY]

Do you really want pick 4, F1 2025 and 2026 up for grabs at the moment? All it will do is raise the price of any decent player to 2 or 3 first rounders.

Yeah that’s a decent thought

 

[Dangerousfield]

AFL logic - that's an oxymoron

 

[Carmo]

Do you really want pick 4, F1 2025 and 2026 up for grabs at the moment? All it will do is raise the price of any decent player to 2 or 3 first rounders.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

You're actually saying that it will create bidding wars for the very best players and may drive their price up. Fine.
Is that a reasonable price for some of the best players though? I think it is. Look at it from the losing a player perspective as much as a getting a player one.

You're also saying some clubs will be stupid and irresponsible. That's not going to be corrected by not allowing the picks, its just a perennial human quality independent of the draft and trade rules. That's the stupid ones problem and the smart ones gain.

Apart from that it gives way more opportunities to get picks to get correct prices, splitting picks should be much more of a thing.