AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

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I know the deck was stacked with big Victorian clubs travelling for school holidays, but, there were two AFL games and two NRL games in Queensland this round, and the aggregate crowds favoured AFL.

LionsTigers: 30,022
SunsPies: 22,483
AFL total: 52,505

BroncosDolphins: 30,606
CowboysTigers: 20,535
NRL total: 51,141

The NRL was probably hamstrung a bit playing at the Gabba instead of their usual ground, but it was still the Brisbane derby, so I think they'd be disappointed with the crowd. And the Cowboys also had an above average.

Doesn't look like the Dolphins have killed off AFL in Queensland just yet. Might need a third Brisbane team to finish off the job. Just wish the Suns could've put on a better performance for the big crowd.

What about the TV ratings?
 
NRL and AFL can grow equally and together all around the country, but AFL has already won in Queensland and NSW. Brisbane Lions and Sydney Swans are some of the most supported and loved clubs in the country.

AFL is also generally more fun to watch than NRL.

VFL/AFL ultimatey has defeated NRL in terms of popularity and becoming the no.1 football code. Strategically setting up expansion to get a minimum of 2 teams in each state has created a solid balance. Soon we'll have a Tassie team and potentially a NT or Canberra team to top it all off.

I can see if we go past 20 teams, having a third team in Queensland and NSW would be beneficial for the game.

I feel that A-League will ultimately take over the NRL and secure the number 2 spot if they don't expand to Perth, Adelaide and Tasmania, and aim to have more teams in Melbourne.

Heck, if Rugby Union got its crap together and set up a domestic competition with SA and Tassie, that could overtake NRL.
I don’t think A-League will take over NRL

I don’t think AFL is generally more fun to watch than NRL

I don’t think AFL has defeated NRL in NSW and Queensland at all
No matter what Gill tells Neil Mitchell or what anyone else says either
 
It's a dumb thing for McLachlan to say, and it's even dumber to equate popularity with playing numbers. Not to say participation isn't important, just that there's not a huge correlation between the 2. Especially not in the context of rugby league, which has comparatively poor playing numbers, even in it's heartland. So it's not the monumental achievement Gil thinks it is to exceed rugby league playing numbers in Queensland.
 

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This kind of comment is just remarkably stupid. As someone who's worked in the industry a bit, I'd love to get the following,

  • How many tickets are 'comped' (free) to every Suns game per week?
  • What's the rate of growth for attendances (non comped)
  • What's definition of 'membership'? While GC memberships have increased last 4 years - is that an apple for apples comparison?
  • What's the # of eyeballs per AFL game in Old and has that number increased or decreased over last 3 years?

There's so many funny numbers in this game, I'd just love to get some transparency.
 

Discuss..
Gil has said this before and is miles off. The primary metric to determine popularity is TV viewers. Participation is important but on that metric basketball is bigger than footy in Melbourne. NRL has double the crowds, five times the viewers and if you include touch/tag, probably more players.

Discuss.
 
I don’t think A-League will take over NRL

I don’t think AFL is generally more fun to watch than NRL

I don’t think AFL has defeated NRL in NSW and Queensland at all
No matter what Gill tells Neil Mitchell or what anyone else says either

Found a league unlimited lurker straight off the bat 😅. Welcome.
 
Gil has said this before and is miles off. The primary metric to determine popularity is TV viewers. Participation is important but on that metric basketball is bigger than footy in Melbourne. NRL has double the crowds, five times the viewers and if you include touch/tag, probably more players.

Discuss.

Australian football has more club participants than any other sport in all the southern states.

I would say tv, attendance then participation in that order are most important.

Participation is very important because anyone that participates in a sport is something like 6x more likely to consume that sport as an adult, it's why the AFL use it to spread the gospel. Now you may say what about soccer and basketball, kids do consume those sports, but they do so via the overseas comps, afl has no competition in that sense, so effectively those participants will consume the AFL throughout their life via tv or attendance in the future.
 
Australian football has more club participants than any other sport in all the southern states.

I would say tv, attendance then participation in that order are most important.

Participation is very important because anyone that participates in a sport is something like 6x more likely to consume that sport as an adult, it's why the AFL use it to spread the gospel. Now you may say what about soccer and basketball, kids do consume those sports, but they do so via the overseas comps, afl has no competition in that sense, so effectively those participants will consume the AFL throughout their life via tv or attendance in the future.
Yeah, if participation rates are up, attendances and TV viewers will go up. I think the Suns will turn out fine (though I still wish they'd re-brand as the Gold Coast Sharks). Still not sure about GWS, especially if they're going to stay in Canberra beyond 2032 and not commit to being a full time Sydney team.
 

Discuss..
It’s building. However, even if we get an increasingly bigger slice of market share in QLD, it’s obviously never going to look like it does in the southern states. The sports market here is very diluted, as there’s not one sport that stands out as being a dominant code. Have had more gains in the South East than everywhere else too, with our sport still very much a minor player in northern, central and western QLD (with perhaps the exception of Cairns). I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the Goldy is on the verge of exploding as a footy market. Really need the Suns to come on and play some consistently good footy and make the finals in the next few years.
 
"The biggest sport in that market within five to 10 years on most metrics". Not "the single most important metric".

Maybe I'm forgetting about other metrics used, but I would guess Gill had the following in mind...

TV viewership: NRL more
Participation: AFL more
Attendance: NRL 25k v AFL 20k
Membership: NRL 100k v AFL 65k
Sponsorship: Hard to say because AFL has a more diverse audience which is a big plus

So probably those last 3 are well and truly up for grabs over the next 5-10 years, which means Gill's statement is not at all farfetched.
 

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My opinion here is that Gil is just ruffling feathers on his way out, he's been basically silent when V'Landys has publicly attacked the AFL multiple times. I think he just wanted one chance to stir the pot. Of course he knows that AFL isn't going to overtake league in QLD in 5 years
 
My opinion here is that Gil is just ruffling feathers on his way out, he's been basically silent when V'Landys has publicly attacked the AFL multiple times. I think he just wanted one chance to stir the pot. Of course he knows that AFL isn't going to overtake league in QLD in 5 years

It wasn't even that. The host was badgering him, shitting on the Suns, and he just whipped out a bunch of stats to show how beneficial the Suns are.

Such a non-story.
 

Discuss..

Nothing to discuss except another inflammatory headline.
AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan says Queensland is “becoming an AFL state”.
Queensland has been "becoming an AFL state” for a long time.
It really took off whe the "threepeat" and the Lions outdrawing the Broncos.

Personally I don't like statements like this because you set yourself up for "egg on face".
 
It wasn't even that. The host was badgering him, shitting on the Suns, and he just whipped out a bunch of stats to show how beneficial the Suns are.

Such a non-story.
Yes - that’s exactly what happened.

Also, much has been made of The Allies going through the Under 18’s undefeated and the 3 expected Top 10 draftees in the Suns academy. However, much less publicised but I think even more remarkable is the composition of the All-Australian Under-16 Tram following the championships - it has more Queenslanders in the team (7) than Victorians (6)! And 14 of the 22 named come The Allies states. Five of the Queenslanders come from the Suns academy, which now delivering a whole raft of top flight young talent. Here’s the team‘s state by state representation -
Queensland - 7
Victoria - 6
NSW - 4
Tas - 2
SA - 2
NT - 1
WA - 1

 
Yes - that’s exactly what happened.

Also, much has been made of The Allies going through the Under 18’s undefeated and the 3 expected Top 10 draftees in the Suns academy. However, much less publicised but I think even more remarkable is the composition of the All-Australian Under-16 Tram following the championships - it has more Queenslanders in the team (7) than Victorians (6)! And 14 of the 22 named come The Allies states. Five of the Queenslanders come from the Suns academy, which now delivering a whole raft of top flight young talent. Here’s the team‘s state by state representation -
Queensland - 7
Victoria - 6
NSW - 4
Tas - 2
SA - 2
NT - 1
WA - 1


The gold coast could be the most fruitful football talent area in the country. I expect Leo Lombard to end up a top 10 pick next year and Caleb Nancarrow could go high too, then you have all this under 16 talent coming through, the gold coast will be out outdoing even the sandringham dragons and the likes, for the most draftable top end talent in the country.
 
The gold coast could be the most fruitful football talent area in the country. I expect Leo Lombard to end up a top 10 pick next year and Caleb Nancarrow could go high too, then you have all this under 16 talent coming through, the gold coast will be out outdoing even the sandringham dragons and the likes, for the most draftable top end talent in the country.
We had just as many U16 AAs named as Vic Metro earlier this week (5) so you might be onto something. Keep an eye on Gold Coasters Beau Addinsall, Jai Murray and even Kalani White for the 2025 draft class.
 
I agree with Gill. AFL will dominate Queensland soon. A third Queensland team in the national comp will be the icing on the cake.
Can only be team 21 or 22 though, as the Sunshine Coast and North Queensland are too small for team 20.

I’ve suggested a second Brisbane team but that appears to have been shot down based on who’d support them, but they’re the only city in Queensland who could conceivably support a second side based on population by the 2030s.

That said, I don’t think it’d be a good idea because the Lions are still a small and financially struggling club despite the growth in Queensland.
 
Can only be team 21 or 22 though, as the Sunshine Coast and North Queensland are too small for team 20.

I’ve suggested a second Brisbane team but that appears to have been shot down based on who’d support them, but they’re the only city in Queensland who could conceivably support a second side based on population by the 2030s.

That said, I don’t think it’d be a good idea because the Lions are still a small and financially struggling club despite the growth in Queensland.
Yes, it would be something for down the track but a North Queensland team is what I was thinking.

Another Sydney team is also viable.
 

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AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

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