AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[Angus Young]

How can it be a sell out when you get 42,000 in a capacity stadium of 55,000?
The Lions call a sell out on anything over 30,000.
I can see you are not accountant, and neither is anyone who thinks that's a sell out

Eight Gabba Sell Outs As Lions Fans On Track To Set 20 Year Record

The Lions have put the ‘sold out’ sign up at the Gabba for the eighth time this season

www.lions.com.au

Its a sell out when every seat is gone and there is none available.

AFL Club members have season tickets. Sometimes they may not go. But the seat is sold.

Sell Out- no more tickets available.

Not sure if you are trolling or genuinely don´t get it.

 

[Angus Young]

The Gabba doesn't hold anywhere close to 44K. Based on attendance over the last decade, its actual capacity would only be 37 or 38K.

Stadium capacity is seemingly always inflated and shouldn't be taken as gospel.

The Gabba is so shit.

 

[GC2015]

On another note and on topic, I was listening to an interview with former Essendon player Dean Solomon today and he's living in northern nsw near the qld border, they asked him how footy was going up there and he basically reflected dave10 thoughts.

Starts 8.20 min

Solomon has been in the Tweed for a while now and I'd say that region of Northern NSW in particular is going to benefit greatly from this recent explosion of talented footy juniors in the southern Gold Coast suburbs like Burleigh and Palm Beach. We're talking about short distances here with Palm Beach only being 12 minutes from the border (where Tweed Heads begins) and Burleigh is only 20 minutes from the border. Even Carrara Stadium is less than a 40 minute drive from the border so the distance is very manageable for Tweed juniors if they want to take part in the Suns Academy while still living in NSW. Tweed is a traditionally strong rugby league area and most of the best junior athletes from the Tweed region end up at the Palm Beach Currumbin sports excellence school on the Gold Coast because it's close and they produce a lot of pro athletes.

If we can harness the Tweed region through our academy then we're looking at another 100-150k people that are interested in footy and that would help sell the game further south in places like Lismore/Byron. It's not Queensland footy per se, but Tweed does fall under the Suns Academy zone and this is all about growing the game in the northern states. Locally, a lot of people view Tweed like another Gold Coast suburb and it's treated as such with the way that a lot of things are set up here. So don't be surprised if we see a talented Tweed junior or two come through the Suns Academy and end up in the AFL soon.

 

[Go GWS!]

There are a few nice numbers in this article: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sp...-why-it-s-just-the-start-20241201-p5kutv.html

I've just picked out a few. There have been some comments here about whether this thread title is appropriate. Maybe it should be renamed "When will the AFL invasion of Queensland be complete?"

The staggering numbers behind Lions’ invasion, and why it’s just the start​

By Nick Wright​

November 30, 2024 — 11.55pm

Since 2019, women’s Aussie rules has undergone a 133 per cent community participation increase in southeast Queensland. Across the state, total female player numbers have risen by 54 per cent in youth football, while the number of girls friendly change rooms has shot up 70 per cent.

AFL Queensland’s 64,000 players reported mid-year did not consider Auskick AFL Superkick and AFL Nines initiatives for school terms three and four. A total increase of 17 per cent has occurred in 2024.

Should a fifth Queensland [NRL] franchise fall through, the AFL will be ready to infiltrate, with the Lions’ Springfield base the birthplace of the club’s return to the top.

 

[GC2015]

There are a few nice numbers in this article: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sp...-why-it-s-just-the-start-20241201-p5kutv.html

I've just picked out a few. There have been some comments here about whether this thread title is appropriate. Maybe it should be renamed "When will the AFL invasion of Queensland be complete?"

The staggering numbers behind Lions’ invasion, and why it’s just the start​

By Nick Wright​

November 30, 2024 — 11.55pm

Since 2019, women’s Aussie rules has undergone a 133 per cent community participation increase in southeast Queensland. Across the state, total female player numbers have risen by 54 per cent in youth football, while the number of girls friendly change rooms has shot up 70 per cent.

AFL Queensland’s 64,000 players reported mid-year did not consider Auskick AFL Superkick and AFL Nines initiatives for school terms three and four. A total increase of 17 per cent has occurred in 2024.

Should a fifth Queensland [NRL] franchise fall through, the AFL will be ready to infiltrate, with the Lions’ Springfield base the birthplace of the club’s return to the top.

There's no doubt that the NRL would be taking notice of these kinds of articles/stats. The really concerning part is that they only just started a second franchise in Brisbane two years ago and it doesn't seem to be stagnating the AFL's growth at all. That might be enough to convince the NRL that they need to start a third team in Brisbane and base it in the western suburbs where the Lions are currently making inroads. One thing is for sure - if the Lions keep winning then they are going to keep growing their fanbase and it's really encouraging to see the early prediction is that the Lions will hit 70-75k members next year.

 

[Bjo187]

There's no doubt that the NRL would be taking notice of these kinds of articles/stats. The really concerning part is that they only just started a second franchise in Brisbane two years ago and it doesn't seem to be stagnating the AFL's growth at all. That might be enough to convince the NRL that they need to start a third team in Brisbane and base it in the western suburbs where the Lions are currently making inroads. One thing is for sure - if the Lions keep winning then they are going to keep growing their fanbase and it's really encouraging to see the early prediction is that the Lions will hit 70-75k members next year.

How many teams can you start in the one city to stop the competitors growth though? The dolphins were started in a hurry for this exact reason. It seems a silly strategy, as I think the fan bases of footy and r.l are likely different people anyway (as seen by the fact the lions still sellout when the Broncos are playing down the road).

 

[RedV3x]

The really concerning part is that they only just started a second franchise in Brisbane two years ago and it doesn't seem to be stagnating the AFL's growth at all.

Why should it ?
The Dolphins are just consolidating existing fans.

 

[GC2015]

How many teams can you start in the one city to stop the competitors growth though? The dolphins were started in a hurry for this exact reason. It seems a silly strategy, as I think the fan bases of footy and r.l are likely different people anyway (as seen by the fact the lions still sellout when the Broncos are playing down the road).

Good question. Have the Dolphins already prevented further growth for the Lions purely because they exist? It's impossible to know, but I guess it's plausible. The Dolphins are getting pretty decent crowds, despite having never made the finals. Ultimately, the biggest factor is always going to be winning and this year we saw neither Brisbane NRL team make the finals in a season that the Lions claimed their first premiership in 20+ years.

I'd agree that the hardcore fans of either sport are definitely different types of people that will be unlikely to ever cross codes, but I think what we're seeing at the moment is the casual sports fans in Brisbane being drawn to the Lions because they are having more on field success. The challenge for the Lions is to keep that success going long enough to convert those casuals into rusted on fans that won't drop off when the on field success starts to dissipate. The Swans have done a really good job of that over the last two decades and i's probably a big factor behind the reports of Sydney having more fans than any other club in the AFL. Sustained success creates greater levels of pride/loyalty amongst supporters.

Why should it ?
The Dolphins are just consolidating existing fans.

I think the NRL would have hoped that starting a second team in Brisbane would lead to more growth for RL within the market... and maybe it has, but the growth for the Lions has been more obvious/measurable. As is the case with my club (the Suns), the Dolphins need to play finals in order for us to see genuinely impressive growth within the market. Until then, their existence it's probably just consolidating existing RL fans for the most part, like you suggested.

 

[The Educator]

Good question. Have the Dolphins already prevented further growth for the Lions purely because they exist? It's impossible to know, but I guess it's plausible. The Dolphins are getting pretty decent crowds, despite having never made the finals. Ultimately, the biggest factor is always going to be winning and this year we saw neither Brisbane NRL team make the finals in a season that the Lions claimed their first premiership in 20+ years.

I'd agree that the hardcore fans of either sport are definitely different types of people that will be unlikely to ever cross codes, but I think what we're seeing at the moment is the casual sports fans in Brisbane being drawn to the Lions because they are having more on field success. The challenge for the Lions is to keep that success going long enough to convert those casuals into rusted on fans that won't drop off when the on field success starts to dissipate. The Swans have done a really good job of that over the last two decades and i's probably a big factor behind the reports of Sydney having more fans than any other club in the AFL. Sustained success creates greater levels of pride/loyalty amongst supporters.


I think the NRL would have hoped that starting a second team in Brisbane would lead to more growth for RL within the market... and maybe it has, but the growth for the Lions has been more obvious/measurable. As is the case with my club (the Suns), the Dolphins need to play finals in order for us to see genuinely impressive growth within the market. Until then, their existence it's probably just consolidating existing RL fans for the most part, like you suggested.

The Dolphins were in their second season this year and spent the entire year in the 8 and just had to win the last game of the season to make it. They were in the 8 much of the first season as well for that matter.

I think people got sucked in by the novelty factor in the first season....the big test will be if they have a couple of poor seasons

They are far more likely end up another Titans than anything and have no chance of being a big club unless they have a Storm like couple of decades.


In terms of who they might be stealing fans off, it is far more likely other NRL teams than the Lions.

This is the problem with adding clubs into well established "catchments" of existing clubs. Why would somebody not following the competition already get on board?

The Lions took a big hit from the Suns coming on board despite them being a distinctively different city. It would be nuts to add another team in Brisbane. Just let the Lions become another super club if they grow "too big". SEQ will still have the same number of teams as Perth.

The NRL's problem is that Brisbane is one of only two cities the sport is dominant so having one team was problematic....but the horse had bolted by the time they added a second in.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It would be interesting if a brand spanking new stadium gets built (Vic Park) for the Olympics, whether a second team in Brisbane might be worthwhile, simply to take advantage of the fact that the interest and demand in sports events in the stadium will be at an all-time high, and to try and prevent NRL getting some mileage out of the stadium too.

The Sydney Olympic stadium had a lot of issues, but the glow of it being the Olympic stadium bumped up some of the crowds in the early years: https://afltables.com/afl/venues/stadium_australia_gm.html

 

[RedV3x]

I think the NRL would have hoped that starting a second team in Brisbane would lead to more growth for RL within the market

There' probably a parallel with the Fremantle Dockers capturing the anti-incumbent feeling.

and maybe it has

The growth of the Fremantle Dockers wasn't immediate either.

but the growth for the Lions has been more obvious/measurable.

because the Lions are the "pride of Brisbane", a Broncos not a Redcliffe team.

As is the case with my club (the Suns), the Dolphins need to play finals in order for us to see genuinely impressive growth within the market.

Onfield success is instrumental in any club's success, even existing clubs need to keep fans.

Until then, their existence it's probably just consolidating existing RL fans for the most part, like you suggested.

Probably.

 

[kalex6251]

The NRL's problem is that Brisbane is one of only two cities the sport is dominant so having one team was problematic....but the horse had bolted by the time they added a second in.

if i understand the history correctly (happy to be corrected) but brisbane broncos have a lot to answer for here ...... or, perhaps more accurately, newscorp who actively thwarted any effort at expanding the number of teams in that city for many years

not that i care .... either for the team ...... or the footballing code

 

[Bjo187]

if i understand the history correctly (happy to be corrected) but brisbane broncos have a lot to answer for here ...... or, perhaps more accurately, newscorp who actively thwarted any effort at expanding the number of teams in that city for many years

not that i care .... either for the team ...... or the footballing code

That's correct and v'landy's had to fly to the u.s to get permission from Lachlan Murdoch to start a new Brisbane franchise. Foxtel put in $20 mill for the extra 13 games of content.

Also of note, v'landy's told giants chairman and friend Tony Sheppard the reason they rushed to bring in another Brisbane side was due to their concerns about the growth of AFL in Brisbane in the post 2020 years.

 

[RedV3x]

Also of note, v'landy's told giants chairman and friend Tony Sheppard the reason they rushed to bring in another Brisbane side was due to their concerns about the growth of AFL in Brisbane in the post 2020 years.

That's screwball thinking w.r.t. AFL It's a move that simply and logically should have been done much earlier.
So are the Bears some anti-AFL move, a move by a delusional Bears tragic or a move good for the game ?

 

[Bjo187]

That's screwball thinking w.r.t. AFL It's a move that simply and logically should have been done much earlier.
So are the Bears some anti-AFL move, a move by a delusional Bears tragic or a move good for the game ?

I think Perth is a good move for their game so it's more national. Also, as if you could reject an offer of a lifetime by leaguie premier Cook, that won't come around again. The same as the offer from leaguie prime minister Albanese for png, will never come around again either. It's kinda an offer you can't refuse in both instances. I think he's getting the bears back in coz he lives in North Sydney and gets bugged about it constantly, he said it's the question he gets asked the most 'when are you bringing the bears back'.

On another point, about Dillon, which we were discussing last week. Dermott was speaking of his first 12 months in the job. They were generous as they always are towards the afl big wigs, so that they aren't ostracized from the 'in crowd', however Derm made a point I've been harping on about for a long time. Up to 1,500 staff at the afl now and the new CEO not seeing the need for a restructure and trimming some of the excessive fat at AFL hq? All that wages spend (which you'd think would be up towards 200 mill now) takes away from profits and money going towards more important areas like grassroots, western sydney, country footy, game promotion in the northern states etc etc. I'm glad somebody said it, someone that has seen first hand how over saturated afl hq is and how much money is being wasted there.

Starts at about 7.50 min.

 

[The Educator]

That's correct and v'landy's had to fly to the u.s to get permission from Lachlan Murdoch to start a new Brisbane franchise. Foxtel put in $20 mill for the extra 13 games of content.

Also of note, v'landy's told giants chairman and friend Tony Sheppard the reason they rushed to bring in another Brisbane side was due to their concerns about the growth of AFL in Brisbane in the post 2020 years.

View attachment 2179811

I am sure that extra money they were apparently getting from foxtel was due to either tacit agreement to pick the dolphins rather than one of the other options....or so foxtel would get more broncos games exclusive (or some combination)

From a quick look, there were 18 FTA Broncos games in 2022 and just 12 in 2024. note that the Broncos finished 3rd last in 2021 and made the GF in 2023 so performance certainly wasn't the explanation.

So that would certainly point to several more broncos games on foxtel being part of the equation

On the other hand, channel 9 signed a new deal after the announcement of the Dolphins at the same level of cash as its previous deal (i.e. a decreasing amount after you factor inflation.)

 

[The Educator]

I think Perth is a good move for their game so it's more national. Also, as if you could reject an offer of a lifetime by leaguie premier Cook, that won't come around again, the same as the offer from leaguie prime minister Albanese for png will never come around again. It's kinda an offer you can't refuse in both instances. I think he's getting the bears back in coz he lives in North Sydney and gets bugged about it constantly.

On another point, about Dillon, which we were discussing last week. Dermott was speaking of his first 12 months in the job. They were generous as they always are towards the afl big wigs, so that they aren't ostracized from the 'in crowd', however Derm made a point I've been harping on about for a long time. Up to 1,500 staff and a new CEO not doing a restructure and trimming some of the excessive fat at AFL hq? How all that wages spend (which you'd think would be up towards 200 mill now) takes away from profits and money going towards more important areas like grassroots, western sydney etc etc. I'm glad somebody said it, someone that has seen first hand how over saturated afl hq is and how much money is being wasted there.

The 1500 staff would include everyone working for instance in game development in western sydney

 

[Bjo187]

The 1500 staff would include everyone working for instance in game development in western sydney

No kidding. But take 100 or 200 out of the reported over 1,000 at docklands hq and put them into western sydney (as an example). Or don't and have that $20 mil saved in salaries put into promoting the club and building some ovals up there. You could actually start a few new footy club's with some of that money.

 

[The Educator]

No kidding. But take 100 or 200 out of the reported over 1,000 at docklands hq and put them into western sydney (as an example). Or don't and have that $20 mil saved in salaries put into promoting the club and building some ovals up there. You could actually start a few new footy club's with some of that money.

I think the issue is who is the "reported over 1,000 at docklands hq" to the extent that is true.

I am sure there are efficiencies to be had but I am also sure there is far less "fat" than you a Dermie think

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I think the issue is who is the "reported over 1,000 at docklands hq" to the extent that is true.

I am sure there are efficiencies to be had but I am also sure there is far less "fat" than you a Dermie think

Yeah, there's probably all sorts of double counting and subsidiary counting going on here.

The AFL publishes an annual report with financial details in it. If there's too much fat and expenditure on AFL house there's ample opportunity to analyse it in a way that isn't hearsay.

 

[RedV3x]

I am sure there are efficiencies to be had but I am also sure there is far less "fat" than you a Dermie think

That's probably true but one area I know has a substantial size is the media department.
I'm not saying that it should be shrunk but I think part of it could be re-directed.
The AFL International Cup received only fleeting coverage when it existed
and now with the regional championships we receive nothing.
IMO not only is it the AFL's duty to be more expansive in it's outlook but it will also be beneficial
generally to shine the light on all things football not just AFL and not so Vic-centric.

During the International Rules series there was reasonable media coverage.
We're waiting but in the mean time why not organise something like
the AFLW against AFLW Irish players in Brisbane for example ?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

That's probably true but one area I know has a substantial size is the media department.
I'm not saying that it should be shrunk but I think part of it could be re-directed.
The AFL International Cup received only fleeting coverage when it existed
and now with the regional championships we receive nothing.
IMO not only is it the AFL's duty to be more expansive in it's outlook but it will also be beneficial
generally to shine the light on all things football not just AFL and not so Vic-centric.

The AFL does provide support to genuine organic growth of the code (it's lowkey but genuine in places like central Europe where a lot of teams have popped up without fanfare and with support from AFL Europe etc) but where is this idea that the AFL has an obligation to the code overseas? One could argue spending any more money than it currently is on international endeavours is just a waste of money that doesn't really achieve anything.

 

[RedV3x]

The AFL does provide support to genuine organic growth of the code (it's lowkey but genuine in places like central Europe where a lot of teams have popped up without fanfare and with support from AFL Europe etc)

There has been so overseas investment in organic growth that seemed to advancing incrementally before Covid hit.
The development officers in Europe under AFL Europe have improved the standard of umpiring which has improved the the general standard of play. AFL Canada has been rewarded for their incredible success with some investment but the U.S.A. has been crying out for development officers and received nothing to my knowledge.

but where is this idea that the AFL has an obligation to the code overseas?

The AFL has assumed the role of "keeper-of-the-code" so it's implied as obligatory.

One could argue spending any more money than it currently is on international endeavours is just a waste of money that doesn't really achieve anything.

The actual sums spent by the AFL would have to very minimal.
Some big projects in the past leveraged off of government aid.
Are there any investments these days ?

I don't think you could these sums a "waste of money" - that would be the resources put into AFLX.
Look at what has been achieved in Canada - with A.R.F. recognised as an official sport and with AFLW players coming here.
Look at Bordeax with the city sponsoring European championships.
Look at the U.S.A. championships worth $ millions.
There is a lot the AFL could be doing without involving a lot of money - advertising would be one of them.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

There has been so overseas investment in organic growth that seemed to advancing incrementally before Covid hit.
The development officers in Europe under AFL Europe have improved the standard of umpiring which has improved the the general standard of play. AFL Canada has been rewarded for their incredible success with some investment but the U.S.A. has been crying out for development officers and received nothing to my knowledge.

Sure, nobody's saying it doesn't work, just that international growth shouldn't necessarily be a priority.

The USAFL also wants to maintain some independence from the AFL in terms of a governance and decision making POV, but take take take from the AFL. I don't think that there's anything wrong with that, but you can't have it both ways.

The AFL has assumed the role of "keeper-of-the-code" so it's implied as obligatory.

Of course, but that's to say that they're not doing nothing (they are still doing something). The suggestion being that they're currently not meeting that obligation. I can argue that they are. You're asking that they do more, which increases the prioritisiation, and the money has to be taken away from somewhere.

The actual sums spent by the AFL would have to very minimal.
Some big projects in the past leveraged off of government aid.
Are there any investments these days ?

But everything is minimal if you break it down into it's component parts enough. The salary of one development officer is minimal.

And also: yes

https://www.pacificaussports.gov.au/partners/our-partners/australian-football-league

I don't think you could these sums a "waste of money" - that would be the resources put into AFLX.

It was a worthwhile endeavour executed badly and with the plug pulled early enough. It hasn't been a waste of money for nearly half a decade, and if anything it's a better example for me that the AFL shouldn't be spending money on things that are not worth the money - the fact that they didn't continue to spend liberally on it further proves the point that they shouldn't be spending money on things that either don't support the elite competition or supporting core grassroots or the culture and tradition of the game, of which neither AFLX nor international development form part.

Look at what has been achieved in Canada - with A.R.F. recognised as an official sport and with AFLW players coming here.
Look at Bordeax with the city sponsoring European championships.
Look at the U.S.A. championships worth $ millions.
There is a lot the AFL could be doing without involving a lot of money - advertising would be one of them.

All of this combined is worth far less than initiatives such as Gather and Opening round or whatever for the strength of the code, which makes it right for the AFL to focus on those as initiatives. A bunch of amateur people spending a few hundred dollars in a town and a few interested onlookers before people move on with their lives is not exactly Adelaide paying millions or whatever but we move on.

 

[RedV3x]

Sure, nobody's saying it doesn't work, just that international growth shouldn't necessarily be a priority.

it's the opposite of a priority -it's not even on the table.

The USAFL also wants to maintain some independence from the AFL in terms of a governance and decision making POV, but take take take from the AFL.

What has it taken ?

I don't think that there's anything wrong with that, but you can't have it both ways.

What has been offered as against what independence ?

Of course, but that's to say that they're not doing nothing (they are still doing something). The suggestion being that they're currently not meeting that obligation.

They are currently doing very little.

You're asking that they do more, which increases the prioritisiation, and the money has to be taken away from somewhere.

The amounts are absolutely and relatively minimal.

But everything is minimal if you break it down into it's component parts enough. The salary of one development officer is minimal.

.
Yes, The salary of one development officer is very minimal.

It was a worthwhile endeavour executed badly and with the plug pulled early enough.

It's debatable whether AFLX was worthwhile. It was executed badly and was axed because it held no attraction.

It hasn't been a waste of money for nearly half a decade, and if anything it's a better example for me that the AFL shouldn't be spending money on things that are not worth the money - the fact that they didn't continue to spend liberally on it further proves the point that they shouldn't be spending money on things that either don't support the elite competition or supporting core grassroots or the culture and tradition of the game, of which neither AFLX nor international development form part.

Well the idea of AFLX was to promote AFL thus potentially increasing AFL revenue and also to promote a small ground version of AFL suitable for rectangular stadiums.

It seems like your one of these people who want instant AFL gratification not Australian Football gratification.
internationally we're getting more and Irish players and the odd PNG player. In the AFLW is loaded with international players from various countries. The AFL is seeing some return even from places where they didn't invest in.

All of this combined is worth far less than initiatives such as Gather and Opening round or whatever for the strength of the code, which makes it right for the AFL to focus on those as initiatives.

Yes, focus on genuine money makers - then you can afford to spend some minimal amounts on grassroots football.

A bunch of amateur people spending a few hundred dollars in a town and a few interested onlookers before people move on with their lives is not exactly Adelaide paying millions or whatever but we move on.

You seriously have no idea. The international players I have met are the most passionate Australian Football people i have ever met. These people spend a great deal of time, money and passion involved in Australian Football. They have driven minor successes here and they WITHOUT any AFL help

Not only are your comments disrespectful towards these people but your thinking is extremely short-sighted.
if there weren't people of vision, there would be no Sydney Swans, Brisbane Lions, Giants, Suns, AFLW.
There would be no interest so elite stadiums in Perth and Adelaide wouldn't be needed.