AFL Round 17

[bob29305]

I like Adelaide at home, Coll 40+, WCE and Port to get under the line, so my plans are Ade (1-20 $4.50, 20-40 $6, 40+ $10) Coll (40-60 $4.50, 60+ $3) WCE (1-20 $4.50, 20-40 $6, 40+ 10) and Port (+31.5 $1.92) mix and match bet options makes 18 tickets (only 1 ticket can win obviously) $10 on each ticket min win $700 max win $7000) hope that made sense, any thoughts???

 

[5 Bucks]

Cooney is paying $2.10 vs Cross in DT on Sportingbet. Free money.

 

[Borgsta]

Cooney is paying $2.10 vs Cross in DT on Sportingbet. Free money.

Don't play DT much?

 

[5 Bucks]

Don't play DT much?

I just had a quick look, and it appears Cross scores a lot better than I expected. Still, Cooney is BACK.

 

[twarby]

I just had a quick look, and it appears Cross scores a lot better than I expected. Still, Cooney is BACK.

since Cooney has been "back" Cross has beaten him 2/3 times.

love to see your other "free money" tips

 

[5 Bucks]

Against the GC and Melb, who don't have anyone decent to tag. Picken got the main job, so Cross was free to roam around. Picken will go to Wells, so Cross looks like having another tagging role on Swallow.

You want more value? okay, i will oblige. @2.70 for Hartlett to beat Trengove (melb) and Jones. With his new role playing loose across half back he will rack up the cheap kicks, and more importantly cheap marks. Free money.

 

[twarby]

lol yes sir

if that is the best you can find then wow

 

[The Royal Sampler]

"Free money" is a term bandied about far too often on here.

 

[5 Bucks]

Collingwood to win by 10 goals or more is paying $3. They are a 50/50 chance at worst of doing this. How much value do you need to be pleased?

 

[KardiniaPark]

"Free money" is a term bandied about far too often on here.

It's actually stopped since aldi left. 5 bucks I strongly disagree with pretty much everything you just said. Cross has been smashing DT and I think it's very easy to say collingwood will win by 300 but I can see that game being a hell of a lot closer than people think. I've taken the pies 25+ in the quad but ideally I'd have preferred 13 plus. I don't think it's 50/50 at all to be over 60. There was something else that I don't remember but I probably don't agree with that either. But good luck, that was sincere btw I know it's hard to tell with me.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I missed the hartlett bet, he's a decent player but hardly a DT star. I'd side with the dees young fella in that too.

 

[Hucky]

Collingwood to win by 10 goals or more is paying $3. They are a 50/50 chance at worst of doing this. How much value do you need to be pleased?

Collingwood's average winning margin this season is a shade under 50, and that's counting a few blowout wins against shit teams. This will be a high pressure game with a massive crowd. I don't see how 60+ is a 50/50 shot.

 

[GoodesStuff]

There was something else that I don't remember but I probably don't agree with that either.

LOL

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Collingwood's average winning margin this season is a shade under 50, and that's counting a few blowout wins against shit teams. This will be a high pressure game with a massive crowd. I don't see how 60+ is a 50/50 shot.

Average is a rubbish descriptor of spread for determining how likely it is that Collingwood clear 60+, however I agree with your conclusion. They've won by over 60 five times this season out of 14 games (twice against North, once against Melbourne, once against Port, once against Richmond), so it's unlikely that they'd clear that figure against a top-four aspirant.

 

[bisazc887]

What does everyone think of this?

WCE 1-24
Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel
WB/WB
Rich/Rich
Freo +25.5

@20.79?

Or even add coll H2H @ 23.70

FWIW i remember at the time i had geel half time and full time when they played Gold coast in 1 of my multis and they just coasted till the second half (GC infront) then blem them away. Of course if cats want to (and they may do) they could come out and be 5 goals up at qtr time and then extend by another 5 in each quater over brisbane but dont know that they are foccused on a quater time and half time result like they werent that night. Id take them for a few bucks but not sure if worth the risk for tiny odds against a team that they will know they will cover at the end. If it were me id take coll quater by quater because atleast you know they will go for the game from the bounce and wont want carlton near them at any stage.

 

[Hucky]

They've won by over 60 five times this season out of 14 games (twice against North, once against Melbourne, once against Port, once against Richmond), so it's unlikely that they'd clear that figure against a top-four aspirant.

Nicely done - I struggled to find a better way of expressing what I knew was correct.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Geelong $2 vs Richmond (MyMatch)

 

[Vince Masuka]

Adelaide 1-39
4 units @ 3.00 (Centrebet)

St Kilda 1-39
5 units @ 2.43 (Centrebet)

Fremantle 1-39
4 units @ 4.60 (Iasbet)

Bulldogs 1-39
5 units @ 2.34 (Centrebet)

 

[TurboBreuster]

0.3U Tippett FGS @11
0.2U Crameri FGS @13

Both bets are at Sportsalive who I do not have an account with. However I can access these odds as a Betfair user, by doubling both bets with the Pies +24.5 @1.03. Apart from these odds the best available at the big 3, tab or 365 are at Sportingbet which has Tippett @10 and Crameri @11.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Im liking the look of Murphy more possies than Pendlebury @ $2.55 (Centrebet) Last time these teams played Gibbs done a good job on Pendlebury so don't see why Carlton won't go with that match up again

 

[Vince Masuka]

Prismall over Reilly disposals
6 units @ 2.05

McKenzie over Trengove disposals
7 units @ 1.85

Grigg over Stanley DT
7 units @ 1.85

Cox over McEvoy DT
8 units @ 1.75

 

[laam]

Going to get back into it this week
1u adelaide win @ 2.2
essendon terrible record in adelaide

1u GC+40.5 @ 1.91
up in the heat, richmond in poor form

1u geelong vs richmond in my match @ 2
up in the heat, richmond in poor form

1u west coast win @ 2.18
play the dome well

1u port+27.5 @ 1.92
port a chance since the game is in darwin

1u freo+25.5 @ 1.92
sydney are just too short and dont win big against other contenders

1u dogs-17.5 @ 1.93
dogs form hard to ignore

1/2u cloke top forward in DT @ 7.25
is on fire and good record vs carlton

2u monfries over ryder in DT @ 1.95
has won this h2h last 4 weeks even though ryder is suposively back and after the media this week should be out to perform

2u richmond more goals than behinds @ 1.54
wasnt on this last week but still think its a good play

 

[Resarenco]

How big a loss is Daniel Kerr to West Coast this week ?

 

[The_Doctor]

How big a loss is Daniel Kerr to West Coast this week ?

The ins of lynch, Waters and Gaff should cover it. He is a good player to lose but the Saints are one of the worst clearance sides in the comp and the eagles should still dominate the midfield

 

[Cizzler]

Really like the Prismall over Reilly disposals too and DT betting of Jacobs over Hille. Both on Centrebet.