AFL Round 21

[laam]

The same game earlier this year showed a 122-51 win to thomas, but im not too big on past games, also last few games have similar form to both players

but after you stated I checked average as well and thomas has a decent lead there.

I assume you will be taking him then as well, what are your reasonings, as may be tempted to up to 2u depending.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I'd prefer to see Thomas play a > 100 point DT game since having that corkie against the Gold Coast. He's a freakishly good wet weather player and yet he didn't have much of an impact against the witches' hats last week. I'm not convinced he's 100% right yet.

 

[twarby]

i am big on past games if there is a trend or strong average it far out weighs current form imo.

My reasoning though

Thomas averages 112.8 in his last 5 vs Saints
Montagna 98.8

Thomas has 9 100s this year, Montagna 6
Thomas has 6 scores over 120, compared to 3 for Montagna.

Thomas stands up in big games, Montagna is a bitch


TRS i disagree, nothing wrong with his score, he had 83 pts at 3/4 time... i don't blame him for switching off last week when the game was finished (yes it was finished after 5mins).

 

[Borgsta]

See!



I haven't bothered. I do read and I wouldn't bother, newbies aren't welcome.



When did I say anything about 1.01? Its about favourites in general from 1.01 to 1.50! If you take those odds you get labelled a "mug" or "soho".

If you aren't here to post tips then don't bother writing anything. Basically post something useful or go away.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

You may be right Twarby, and I must admit I didn't track the DT scores as the game unfolded, but to me he didn't look right and I was surprised to see he scored as highly as he did. His impact on the game was minimal IMHO, albeit that I watch him every week. A corkie shouldn't take long to overcome mind you, so chances are he'll be fine this week...

 

[laam]

Saturdays games are out and I'm adding

2u lewis over cornes @ 1.9
huge difference in the form of the two

1u gia over zaharakis @ 1.9
again just on recent form

really cant find much this week

 

[midnight_toker]

its called tanking, they wanna save there last win for g.c. if they lose both games then they will be the laughing stock of queensland.

Exactly the reason GC will be "on". Two teams out there with different goals. If GC are within two or three goals at 3 qtr time the will to embarrass will possibly beat the will to not be embarrassed.

 

[freddy mercury]

Anyone else think Leon Davis @5.5 at TAB for most touches group 2 is a good bet????

 

[Mudeo]

Most disposals group 1 -

DAL SANTO, N (STK) Open $4.800
FISHER, S (STK) Open $26.000
GODDARD, B (STK) Open $8.500
MONTAGNA, L (STK) Open $9.000
BALL, L (COLL) Open $20.000
PENDLEBURY, S (COLL) Open $4.300
SWAN, D (COLL) Open $1.950
THOMAS, D (COLL) Open $11.500

Dont have time to post the explanation, but in conclusion Sam Fisher loves playing Collingwood and ill take the $26 on offer.

 

[Lensen]

Most goals tonight
0.5 units Milne @ $5.50 ($5.31) - IAS/Sportsbet

 

[laam]

added the following late last night

4u barlow > 24.5 possesions @ 1.75
has beat this mark every game this year (except the one he was sub)

2u jacobs over ottens in DT @ 1.87
ottens just back from injury, jacobs in rare form

1u mcevoy over jolly in DT @ 1.85
big average difference here

0.5u fisher top DT back @8.5
loves collingwood.

 

[Lensen]

I think the Fisher stuff is overrated. He carved us up when they were better than us as we'd just bomb it to the hot spot every time and he'd take mark after mark. We don't do that anymore as evidenced by Fisher's stats in the last three games

 

[freddy mercury]

How does leon davis sound at 5.5 for most touches in group 2. Beams fav at 4. Sidebottom in it along with johnson at 4.50 thoughts?

TAB odds

 

[Lensen]

Early bet due to level of value for most goals Essendon/Dogs:
0.5 units Reimers @ $34 ($7.49)

 

[laam]

Early bet due to level of value for most goals Essendon/Dogs:
0.5 units Reimers @ $34 ($7.49)

huge value

tailed for 1/2u

 

[krusher]

any danger at all in this thread talking about some real bets ie who is going to win the games or what lines will be covered ?


betting on most goals or most bloody DT points is for pokie players

 

[Lensen]

any danger at all in this thread talking about some real bets ie who is going to win the games or what lines will be covered ?


betting on most goals or most bloody DT points is for pokie players

thanks for your contribution

if you'd tailed every most goals bet i've put in this thread for even $10 each time you'd be up about $1000 for the year

try doing that consistently on a pokie

 

[TheNextBigThing]

any danger at all in this thread talking about some real bets ie who is going to win the games or what lines will be covered ?


betting on most goals or most bloody DT points is for pokie players

Not much value in a lot of this weeks games, so most goals/disposals/DT,SC Points are a good way to get some value. And how can you say they are for pokies players, if people do their research on these markets they can be very profitable

 

[lockscombi]

any danger at all in this thread talking about some real bets ie who is going to win the games or what lines will be covered ?


betting on most goals or most bloody DT points is for pokie players

Silly comment, Lenny is right. Follow his wonderful MG posts and you will be laughing. Btw I found Reimers @26 on Centrebet Lenny, where did you see $34?

STK @6.8 BF x 0.75u , STK +37.5 CB x 2.2u
HAW -78.5 CB x 2.2u
CAR -16.5 SB x 2.2u
GC @ 3.25 BF x 3u , GC +17.5 CB x 2.2u
WC -28.5 CB x2.2u
RICH @3.9 BF x 1.4u , RICH +22.5 SB x2.2u
ADE @ 10.5 BF x0.4u , GEE - 50.5 CB x 2.2u

 

[Lensen]

Silly comment, Lenny is right. Follow his wonderful MG posts and you will be laughing. Btw I found Reimers @26 on Centrebet Lenny, where did you see $34?

STK @6.8 BF x 0.75u , STK +37.5 CB x 2.2u
HAW -78.5 CB x 2.2u
CAR -16.5 SB x 2.2u
GC @ 3.25 BF x 3u , GC +17.5 CB x 2.2u
WC -28.5 CB x2.2u
RICH @3.9 BF x 1.4u , RICH +22.5 SB x2.2u
ADE @ 10.5 BF x0.4u , GEE - 50.5 CB x 2.2u

Reimers was $34 at Centrebet this morning

 

[lockscombi]

Merci, thought so. Still good value at $26 obv. Tootaloo!

 

[KardiniaPark]

any danger at all in this thread talking about some real bets ie who is going to win the games or what lines will be covered ?


betting on most goals or most bloody DT points is for pokie players

Any danger you could **** off ?

Lenny says HI douchebag.

 

[Resarenco]

here it comes kids, hold on to your hats.......

$500 on Essendon to score more points then Gold Coast @ 1.55

 

[Lensen]

what are you talking about

 

[Lensen]

here it comes kids, hold on to your hats.......

$500 on Essendon to score more points then Gold Coast @ 1.55

why so pov?