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AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL Round 4
- Thread starter KardiniaPark
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From when we drew with them?
Out: McVeigh, Winderlich (first quarter ACL), Prismall & NLM are out. Maybe Dempsey (first quarter ACL).
In: Pears, Davey, Hibberd, and Reimers (and/or Davey/Dyson).
We don't really have many of our 'key' players injured, despite the long list of other missing. Collingwood had half of their defence out or underdone, including nearly every key defender. If Dempsey plays Essendon's defence and midfield is basically first choice. (Hooker and Pears, our two key defenders, missed the last two Carlton games by being omitted or injured very early in the game).
Carlton should win. I have tipped them. They are solid favourites. They are just a bit shorter than value in my view.
Anyway, I can see the arguments for the other side, just trying to give some perspective before everyone goes off and blows everything on a 'sure thing'.
The fact is that Carlton have a full team to choose (exception of Walker). You guys have Hille, NLM, Mcveigh, Colyer, Myers and Winderlich who would be in your firsts team definitely missing this week and maybe Dempsey might also miss.
Carlton have improved from last lear which does not help Essendon, Carlton's bad kicking is what killed them the day they drew. Carlton will win and win big
Carlton have improved from last lear which does not help Essendon, Carlton's bad kicking is what killed them the day they drew. Carlton will win and win big
I don't want to be 'that guy' who talks about his own team,but some thing are just wrong:
Essendon kicked 4.5 to 5.0 in the last quarter, after having two guys less for nearly all the game.
Anyhow, on to other things:
I think the Hawks are good value too. Very hard to get a read on West Coast given who they have played. They look good, but everyone they've played is 0-3 and been smashed in every game. If they're going to get challenged in Perth then Hawthorn is the team to do it. Might come out harder than they're ready for.
Hawks at -15.5 for $3.10 looks pretty good, when they win they generally kick out a nice margin (only three wins under 17 points last year, one with the rested GC squad).
can you please explain the last two h2h game then
PIESPREMIERS2010
Debutant
- Mar 17, 2011
- 53
- 13
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Vikings
lol and Lyon will know exactly why this is the case!
Mind you since that time the Saints have been a genuine top 8 side and played in a couple of GFs too!
I think everyone is finding it hard to get a read on this game, I would have thought Fremantle represent tremendous value, however the Etihad/Melbourne form is hard to ignore.
I'll be throwing a Freo 1-39 win in a couple of bigger multis for some value.
Line bets this week based on my personal statistics formula.
1.2U bets
St.K - 17.5
Carl - 37.5
GC + 17.5
NM + 6.5
WB - 19.5
0.6U bets
Rich + 33.5
WC - 5.5
PA + 37.5
GWS + 89.5
Just wanted to keep a public record, multis or course still to come.
What is the earliest time you have seen odds come out? Monday morning early? evening?
1.2U bets
St.K - 17.5
Carl - 37.5
GC + 17.5
NM + 6.5
WB - 19.5
0.6U bets
Rich + 33.5
WC - 5.5
PA + 37.5
GWS + 89.5
Just wanted to keep a public record, multis or course still to come.
What is the earliest time you have seen odds come out? Monday morning early? evening?
I expect it will come in when the Pies changes come through, with Reid and Ball out and some rookies in instead.
If you think Port are a chance I'd get on earlier.
jpower
Debutant
Definitely,
If port can stay with them for 2 and a bit quarters and bring rodan on as the sub for a bit of spark, I'd give them every chance to finish strong.
no bias of course
Yeah, I'll try to just be quick when the teams are named I think, just in case some Port players are out.
Definitely,
If port can stay with them for 2 and a bit quarters and bring rodan on as the sub for a bit of spark, I'd give them every chance to finish strong.
no bias of course
I agree, no bias from me!
excellent evidence.
magpieswmb
Senior List
- Jul 8, 2011
- 219
- 41
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
fremantle +41.5
carlton h2h
port +70.5
hawthorn +20.5
gold coast +44.5
geelong h2h
north melbourne +32.5
melbourne +19.5
@$8.68
carlton h2h
port +70.5
hawthorn +20.5
gold coast +44.5
geelong h2h
north melbourne +32.5
melbourne +19.5
@$8.68
Freo +39.5
North +39.5
GC +39.5
Hawthorn +39.5
@$2.42
Geelong 1-39
Freo 1-39
Collingwood 1-39
@$10.79
WCE -4.5
@$1.91
Carlton -24.5
@$1.44
North +39.5
GC +39.5
Hawthorn +39.5
@$2.42
Geelong 1-39
Freo 1-39
Collingwood 1-39
@$10.79
WCE -4.5
@$1.91
Carlton -24.5
@$1.44
- Sep 24, 2010
- 7,310
- 8,057
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Phili Eagles + Sixers
Definitely,
If port can stay with them for 2 and a bit quarters and bring rodan on as the sub for a bit of spark, I'd give them every chance to finish strong.
no bias of course
I don't think one player is going to help those little fade outs in the 4th. To me it just looks like the effects of a young team and it's expected. It's the reason i was on the Sydney line last weekend, i just see them being competitive then fading out late in games. Different situation with the 41 point line though, will probably stay away from this one. Collingwood are still a quality side and as i said, Port are young.
Look2Me4Guidance
Destination Club Supporter
I can't believe the line for the Blues/Bombers game is 40.5! That's crazy.
you are on their bandwagon this year
Think it should be lower?
I think 40 is about right, Essendon are apparently going to rest players for Anzac Day and whilst both are unbeaten, Essendon have played bugger all quality sides.
Look2Me4Guidance
Destination Club Supporter
I would think about 5 goals, but I had forgotten the ANZAC day factor possibly playing a role in team selection.
- Sep 24, 2010
- 7,310
- 8,057
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Phili Eagles + Sixers
Have take the Carlton line a couple of nights ago. Reasons:
- Carazzo's form and the likeliness that he will go to Watson
- Carltons leg speed. On paper there looks to be a huge difference in speed.
- Carlton's midfield
-Essendons injuries and Carlton's lack of injuries
- Form. Carlton are red hot while the Bombers have just been getting the job done.
- Last years games between the two. Easy and big wins to the Blues.
- Essendon's focus on the Anzac day game
Was enough for me to be confident in a big Blues win.
- Carazzo's form and the likeliness that he will go to Watson
- Carltons leg speed. On paper there looks to be a huge difference in speed.
- Carlton's midfield
-Essendons injuries and Carlton's lack of injuries
- Form. Carlton are red hot while the Bombers have just been getting the job done.
- Last years games between the two. Easy and big wins to the Blues.
- Essendon's focus on the Anzac day game
Was enough for me to be confident in a big Blues win.
- Mar 28, 2008
- 3,143
- 444
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Totally agree and have done the same. Also like to add the Bombers although 3-0 have beaten Port, GC and the Roos just.
I think Carlton will comfortably cover the line for every reason you just mentioned, with the ANZAC day clash probably playing the most vital part of all. (other than the fact that they are just simply a lot better than Essendon in areas that are going to hurt a lot)
If the Blues bring the intensity they brought Friday night, they will pants Essendon. I've already taken 5U on the line at -37.5 and the only thing that concerns me is if after most likely having a big build up internally last week about having a chance to "prove themselves" against a genuine challenger, the Blues have a bit of a mental let down this week. Otherwise, they'll smoke them IMO
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