AFL Round 9 St Kilda V Brisbane Lions Official Thread

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weevil

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Jul 15, 2003
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AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
AFL Premiership Round 9
St Kilda V Brisbane Lions

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Sunday, May 24
Etihad Stadium 2:10 pm (Local Time)
Melbourne Forecast Melbourne Radar


TV (All Live Unless Stated)
Qld: Channel 7.
Vic: Channel 7 (1 hour delay).
SA: Channel 7 (2 hour delay).
WA: Channel 7.
TAS: Channel 7 (1 Hour Delay).
NT: Southern Cross.
NSW/ACT: None.

RADIO(To Be Advised)
Vic: 3AW, MMM.
Qld: MMM, BIMA.
SA: None.
WA: 6PR, MMM, BIMA.
NSW: NIL
ACT: NIL.
Tas: NIL.
NT: BIMA.

Ladder:
St KildaBrisbane LionsLadder.gif


Season Win/Loss
St KildaBrisbane LionsSeasonWL.gif


Game Averages
St KildaBrisbane LionsStats.gif


​

The Brisbane Perspective:
Originally Posted by joshhem
The Study of a Great Backline and the Impact of a Powerful Attack

Objective:
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the theory that the Brisbane Lions are likely to kick a greater score vs St Kilda than the average score kicked by teams that have already played St Kilda in 2009.

Assumptions:
* Rounds 1 and 2 have been removed as these rounds tend to produce out-liers as teams settle for beginning of the season.
* It is acknowledged that the logic used in this study is flawed and does not capsure the entire picture.
* Should the Brisbane Lions continue their trend of only playing half a game of football, the prediction of this study will be void.

Introduction and research:
St Kilda has started 2009 in a fantastic fashion. 8 wins from 8 outings, and to emphasize their control of the games they have won 21 of the past 24 quarters of footy. There is only one word that can describe this start, dominance. The Saints have kept their opposition to an average score of 52.5 points from their last 6 matches.

Statistics would show that St Kilda are dominant all across the ground and are outperforming their opposition in every facet of the game. It is the purpose of this study however to illustrate that it is the defense of the St Kilda football club that has the greatest impact on the results that have been observed to this point of the 2009 season. On regular occasions this year, the likes of Goddard and Fisher have finished in the top 3 possession getters for the game an achievement previously only eligible for midfielders.

It is the backline of the Saints that has been most impressive thus far. Of course conceding just 52.5 points average shows this, but they way that they appear to click from the first siren is testament to their performance. None of the past 6 sides to have faced St Kilda have managed to score more than 2 goals in the first term. The defensive pressure is there from the get go.

As a result of this pressure at the defensive end, opposition sides feel it all over the ground. Being unable to hit a target up forward affects the mindset of the midfield players and thus allowing the Saints to dominate in this area as well. When their midfield is on top, it’s not hard to find the two towers up forward and the little guys like Milne. It is the firm belief of this study that because of this flow on effect, the defense has the greatest impact of all for St Kilda.

A brief look at the other side in this study, the Brisbane Lions, shows that they have one of the most effective forward line structures in the league. Jonathon Brown and Daniel Bradshaw are both in the top 5 leading goal scorers this year and is a powerful combination. Also this year, there have been handy goal scoring contributions from Justin Sherman, Rhan Hooper and many of the midfield players.

Under this scenario therefore it is predicted that the Brisbane Lions will score greater than the average 52.5 points that has been seen above. The sides that have faced St Kilda thus far in 2009 (West Coast, Freo, Port, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood and Essendon) do not have a forward line who can match it with the Saints. Brisbane are greater equipped in this department and thus it is predicted that they will score more than those sides previously mentioned.

Materials and Methods:
* Etihad Stadium
* Sunday 24th May
* St Kilda football side similar to the one used in round 8 2009
* Brisbane Lions football side similar to the one used in round 8 2009. The withdrawal of any backline players will not affect this study as the focus is predominantly on the forward line structure and its impact on the Saints defense.

Results:
To be reported in this thread

Yep that’s right, this way I can write a preview without actually predicting a loss to my side. Lets face it, it could get ugly, but I really believe that Brownie et al, is the best chance we have to swing the game in our direction.

Also, the three players that we must watch out for are: Hayes, Montagna and Goodard. Must keep it out of their hands at all costs!
Click to expand...
 

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Thanks for the preview joshhem :thumbsu:

Lions website said:
St Kilda have conceded the least amount of points so far this season (449) at an average of just over 56 points per game. The Lions have conceded the fourth least amount of points this season (710).

The Lions are currently the most accurate side so far this season having kicked 109 goals and 61 behinds for a conversion rate of 64.1%. St Kilda are ranked second with a conversion rate of 63.3%.
Click to expand...

Who would've thunk it??
 
I am working on the theory that winning 9 in a row is a massive task. Therefore the Saints are ready for a loss. I also think that their high pressure games must be mentally taxing as well. History will suggest that at some stage soon they may lull over a 3-4 week period. At our best we will challenge them, but the reality is the Saints will need to be off the boil for us to win.

I still think we are a very good chance due to the long time the saints have been up. Footy is a funny game.
 
acuguy said:
I am working on the theory that winning 9 in a row is a massive task. Therefore the Saints are ready for a loss. I also think that their high pressure games must be mentally taxing as well. History will suggest that at some stage soon they may lull over a 3-4 week period. At our best we will challenge them, but the reality is the Saints will need to be off the boil for us to win.

I still think we are a very good chance due to the long time the saints have been up. Footy is a funny game.
Click to expand...

acuguy you've very succintly summed up my thoughts on how we could possibly win the game. Spot on they will have a 3-4 week lull (EVERY side, EVERY year does - even Geelong last year did, just they kept scraping home during their lull), and the Saints have now had a taxing game, after backing up 6 days from their previous game. They are playing better football than us, no doubt, but if they're off their game and we are on, that's our chance.
 
If there is a team that will produce an upset against St Kilda this year, I would bet it is the lions. By 27 points.

Bradshaw kicks 4 goals, and Proud drills someone.

Also wait for the really awesome goal in the third quarter.
 
I am fair confident going into this match. Last time I was we lost to Carlton....

Is Hooper back?? If so major boost for us.

Expect big games from Hooper, Proud, Harding, Roe (If he's in). It's Indigenous round, being Indigenous I know we fire up when something involves our race,

Brown will have a good game, kinda quiet last week, hell fire up.

Brennan and Rich, I get the feeling they'll be special this week.

Patfull out, no good. Replace him with Roe, sounds silly, but who else?

Lions by 16.
 

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As much as I love the Lions, being a realist Im seriously worried this is going to be another Geelong game, St Kilda play Etihad better than anyone and we have our two best defenders possibly out.

God I hope its not over half way through the first, if the Lions can stick with them through this game it will be one hell of an effort.
 
Lets Roar like '44 said:
As much as I love the Lions, being a realist Im seriously worried this is going to be another Geelong game, St Kilda play Etihad better than anyone and we have our two best defenders possibly out.

God I hope its not over half way through the first, if the Lions can stick with them through this game it will be one hell of an effort.
Click to expand...
Merrett will almost certainly play. Voss was confident he would play in the after game press conference.
 
Think they will have to plain him regardless if he's fit or not, I see Clouston has got injured, what is it with our big men, why the hell do they always get injured?
 
Duritz said:
Roe or Collier then?
Click to expand...


They've both been very average this year.. so going by that... both are due for a big one. ;) Hopefully Collier...he's in my SC!:p


This game will get very ugly very quickly if we start like we did against the crows. As previously mentioned, all teams have a lull during the year, I recall Geelong looked shaky for a couple of week (the Freo game, which they almost lost!), and then got it out of their system with an 86 point hiding at the hands of Collingwood.

The Saints have been playing too good for too long, and it looked like it's catching up with them a little, in the Essendon game on the weekend.

Will never be an easy task, but I doubt they'll be able to play at 100% again, and if we're on top of our game, anything could happen. Glad the Richmond win broke the Melbourne-shackles.

Saints by 32, but I'm not writing us off.;)
 
The Saints season is just about to go pear shaped. They are not as tried and tested as many may believe. There is still plenty of time for them to fall in a heap.

This is what the team must believe if they reckon they are a chance. If they are switched on at the outset, they'll win. Our best is pretty bloody good. These are the thoughts that I would be reinforcing if I was Vossie. Yeah, I'm an optimist... Lions by 13 (points)

Off the Saints board: "...I think Vossy is gonna come really well prepared, and i think this would be one of the games he will be hell bent on winning, to stamp his name on his position early in his career and turn a few heads. Vossy is a proud man and will love a big scalp. They also would have learnt a fair bit from the belting Geelong handed out.

Lions by 23."

I'd be loathe to bring back Roe. He could turn to jelly if the heat is on. We need someone with flair and poise. But who... Hendo? Collier? Cornelius?
Is it possible for B1/B2 to rip Zac (another) new one I wonder? Time will tell.
 
I'm glad some of us are confident - while I think the $6 odds are hard to resist, I won't be making the same "impossible is nothing" call I made before the Cats game.

I still say bring it on, and if we're competitive, I'll be stoked - but based on form, it might be a case of...

Untitled2-2.gif


:D
 
GingerGreatness said:
I'm glad some of us are confident - while I think the $6 odds are hard to resist, I won't be making the same "impossible is nothing" call I made before the Cats game.

I still say bring it on, and if we're competitive, I'll be stoked - but based on form, it might be a case of...

Untitled2-2.gif


:D
Click to expand...

HAHAH that is classic :p

Anyway I feel that this game is winnable, if essendon can get close, we can get over the line! BUT if we dont play for 4 quarters we wont win, its as simple as that!!!

If we can play 4 quarters like we did against sydney, lock us in for 4 wins in a row :D

GO LIONS :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:
 

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