Game Day AFL Semi-Final - Matchday Discussion Collingwood@Geelong(Gabba – 7:40PM EDT)

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It’s a little bit of an unexpected, but it’s a welcome blockbuster matchup in this Semi Final. Both teams are coming off the back of grueling matches in a brilliant first week of the finals. Both these teams have a habit of meeting in the finals, with some of the most iconic and best matches being played when these two teams meet.

The last time these two sides met was back in round seven. In what was a somewhat controversial match, the Magpies were too good for the Cats, producing a wire to wire performance, and giving them what was their best win for the season, up until their Elimination Final win. Jordan De Goey was outstanding for the Magpies, kicking five goals, while Dangerfield was his usual electric self.



Collingwood

Well who would’ve thought that? Going over to Perth, the dirty Magpies team was given little to no chance by anyone in the AFL world against a terrifying West Coast team. However, despite the odds, they rallied to pull off perhaps their most stunning finals win in recent memory, with the exception of the 2018 Preliminary Final. The Magpies got off to a flyer, with Cox kicking three goals in a few minutes of game time in the first quarter. The most admirable thing about the game was the fact that the Magpies were repeatedly tested. At many moments in the game the Eagles looked like kicked into gear, and threatened to pull away. However, to the Magpies’ credit, they didn’t roll over, and would always find their reply.

Perhaps the most interesting moment from the game was Buckley’s choice to use Cameron as the main ruckman, with Grundy being moved to the secondary position. It’s a move that has divided Magpie fans, but it arguably came off as a positive for the Magpies, with Cameron able to somewhat dull the impact of Naitanui. His solid performance has allowed him to keep his spot, in a move that has worried some Magpie supporters, who feel the Magpies are coming in too tall.

Where the Magpies can win

When the Magpies were on fire against the Eagles last week, they excelled in one key area: their dare. The Magpies had the confidence to take the game on, and it worked for them. Taking the necessary risks, but not going overboard is what got them deep in the finals in 2018 and 2019, and they’ll need to continue with that if they are to win.

One key to the Power winning against this week was forcing Hawkins to lead out wide, making him take awkward set shots, contributing to their loss. Forcing Geelong to go wide is key here.

Player to watch

It’s a big week for Levi Greenwood this week. In what many thought might be a season that he’d struggle to get a game, Greenwood has put up some fantastic performances with perhaps his best coming last week against West Coast. Given the mammoth task of nullifying Tim Kelly, Greenwood was outstanding. He’ll most likely be tasked with stopping Dangerfield or Selwood, and if he can stop either, Collingwood have a chance.

Geelong

It has to be frustrating for Geelong fans… Year in and year out they play quality football in the regular season, only to start to falter in the big moments in the finals. The Cats had their chances against Port, but wayward kicking and some ill informed choices cost them dearly. While Port played unbelievably well, Cats fans can’t help but feeling like they missed a golden opportunity, a narrative that they’ve experienced in many seasons prior. If there is any hope for Geelong fans, is that in recent history, after a poor Qualifying Final result, they’ve always managed to bounce back in emphatic fashion. This was shown last season against the Eagles. West Coast were coming into the game in flying form, but were trounced by the classy Cats.

Throughout the week, the Cats were sweating on Selwood, who hurt his finger, but luckily for the Cats, he has managed to pull through, and will suit up for Geelong.

How the Cats can win

Collingwood opted to go into last week’s game with a tall lineup, which naturally worked well against a West Coast team which favors the aerial game. Therefore, Geelong need to work on their ground game, and make sure the ball goes to ground as often as possible. Forcing stoppages was nearly Collingwood’s undoing against the Eagles, and if Geelong can work on that, they’ll win.

Player to watch

Tom Hawkins is the man to watch for the Cats this week. The superstar forward has come under a bit of scrutiny this week after an abysmal kicking performance. At multiple stages in the game last week, Geelong made a charge, but had their momentum squashed with Hawkins missing set shots. He needs to lift this week.


Head to Head odds

Collingwood: $2.25
Geelong: $1.65


Changes

Collingwood


No Change

Geelong

IN

Sam Simpson

OUT

Tom Atkins (Omitted)


TV


Live on Fox Footy, Commercial Free
Live on Channel Seven


Radio

Triple M
3AW
ABC
SEN


IPTV

AFL Live Pass
Foxtel Now
WatchAFL
Kayo Sports

Tip

This is tough to tip. Normally, knowing Geelong’s ability to rebound off of a loss would be enough to tip them, but Collingwood usually rise to the occasion against them. This is going to be close.

Magpies by 3 points.
 
Geelong is a country town with a village mentality

And the Idiot of this Village is Chris Scott

Deep down Chris knows he’s an underachiever, even in the womb Brad would bite him into submission

He knows he’s an accidental premiership coach – 2011 belonged to Peptide Wizardry and stars afforded by the Costa Cap

The pressure of Finals’ Failures is showing on Chris’ face, he has the beard of a homeless man after a kindly Salvo has given it a clip

His mouth is again farting helium in post-game pressers

And this week, Our Boys will make the pressure unbearable for Chris and his minions

We’re building for a Huge Beautiful score

Pendles, Tay, Daics, and Adz are willing it forward

Jordy, Coxy, and Checkers are looking more potent than rutting rhinos

And Pig has prepared something very special for Ducker

We can beat anyone

October is our Premiership Month – the Black and White Tsunami builds

Collingwood by 64 points
 
Last edited:

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It’s a little bit of an unexpected, but it’s a welcome blockbuster matchup in this Semi Final. Both teams are coming off the back of grueling matches in a brilliant first week of the finals. Both these teams have a habit of meeting in the finals, with some of the most iconic and best matches being played when these two teams meet.

The last time these two sides met was back in round seven. In what was a somewhat controversial match, the Magpies were too good for the Cats, producing a wire to wire performance, and giving them what was their best win for the season, up until their Elimination Final win. Jordan De Goey was outstanding for the Magpies, kicking five goals, while Dangerfield was his usual electric self.



Collingwood

Well who would’ve thought that? Going over to Perth, the dirty Magpies team was given little to no chance by anyone in the AFL world against a terrifying West Coast team. However, despite the odds, they rallied to pull off perhaps their most stunning finals win in recent memory, with the exception of the 2018 Preliminary Final. The Magpies got off to a flyer, with Cox kicking three goals in a few minutes of game time in the first quarter. The most admirable thing about the game was the fact that the Magpies were repeatedly tested. At many moments in the game the Eagles looked like kicked into gear, and threatened to pull away. However, to the Magpies’ credit, they didn’t roll over, and would always find their reply.

Perhaps the most interesting moment from the game was Buckley’s choice to use Cameron as the main ruckman, with Grundy being moved to the secondary position. It’s a move that has divided Magpie fans, but it arguably came off as a positive for the Magpies, with Cameron able to somewhat dull the impact of Naitanui. His solid performance has allowed him to keep his spot, in a move that has worried some Magpie supporters, who feel the Magpies are coming in too tall.

Where the Magpies can win

When the Magpies were on fire against the Eagles last week, they excelled in one key area: their dare. The Magpies had the confidence to take the game on, and it worked for them. Taking the necessary risks, but not going overboard is what got them deep in the finals in 2018 and 2019, and they’ll need to continue with that if they are to win.

One key to the Power winning against this week was forcing Hawkins to lead out wide, making him take awkward set shots, contributing to their loss. Forcing Geelong to go wide is key here.

Player to watch

It’s a big week for Levi Greenwood this week. In what many thought might be a season that he’d struggle to get a game, Greenwood has put up some fantastic performances with perhaps his best coming last week against West Coast. Given the mammoth task of nullifying Tim Kelly, Greenwood was outstanding. He’ll most likely be tasked with stopping Dangerfield or Selwood, and if he can stop either, Collingwood have a chance.

Geelong

It has to be frustrating for Geelong fans… Year in and year out they play quality football in the regular season, only to start to falter in the big moments in the finals. The Cats had their chances against Port, but wayward kicking and some ill informed choices cost them dearly. While Port played unbelievably well, Cats fans can’t help but feeling like they missed a golden opportunity, a narrative that they’ve experienced in many seasons prior. If there is any hope for Geelong fans, is that in recent history, after a poor Qualifying Final result, they’ve always managed to bounce back in emphatic fashion. This was shown last season against the Eagles. West Coast were coming into the game in flying form, but were trounced by the classy Cats.

Throughout the week, the Cats were sweating on Selwood, who hurt his finger, but luckily for the Cats, he has managed to pull through, and will suit up for Geelong.

How the Cats can win

Collingwood opted to go into last week’s game with a tall lineup, which naturally worked well against a West Coast team which favors the aerial game. Therefore, Geelong need to work on their ground game, and make sure the ball goes to ground as often as possible. Forcing stoppages was nearly Collingwood’s undoing against the Eagles, and if Geelong can work on that, they’ll win.

Player to watch

Tom Hawkins is the man to watch for the Cats this week. The superstar forward has come under a bit of scrutiny this week after an abysmal kicking performance. At multiple stages in the game last week, Geelong made a charge, but had their momentum squashed with Hawkins missing set shots. He needs to lift this week.


Head to Head odds

Collingwood: $2.25
Geelong: $1.65


Changes

Collingwood


No Change

Geelong

IN

Sam Simpson

OUT

Tom Atkins (Omitted)


TV


Live on Fox Footy, Commercial Free
Live on Channel Seven


Radio

Triple M
3AW
ABC
SEN


IPTV

AFL Live Pass
Foxtel Now
WatchAFL
Kayo Sports

Tip

This is tough to tip. Normally, knowing Geelong’s ability to rebound off of a loss would be enough to tip them, but Collingwood usually rise to the occasion against them. This is going to be close.

Magpies by 3 points.
Great write up.

Just a personal thing but I hate odds/gambling being advertised.
 
Geelong is a country town with a village mentality

And the Idiot of this Village is Chris Scott

Deep down Chris knows he’s an underachiever, even in the womb Brad would bite him into submission

He knows he’s an accidental premiership coach – 2011 belonged to Peptide Wizardry and stars afforded by the Costa Cap

The pressure of Finals’ Failures is showing on Chris’ face, he has the beard of a homeless man after a kindly Salvo has given it a clip

His mouth is again farting helium in post-game pressers

And this week, Our Boys will make the pressure unbearable for Chris and his minions

We’re building for a Huge Beautiful score

Pendles, Tay, Daics, and Adz are willing it forward

Jordy, Coxy, and Checkers are looking more potent than rutting rhinos

And Pig has prepared something very special for Ducker

We can beat anyone

October is our Premiership Month – the Black and White Tsunami builds

Collingwood by 64 points
tenor.gif
 
Tomorrow is my birthday.
I'm expecting the boys will get up for the leader of Hardistan's birthday.
Lock that shit in then.

The Mayor has spoken!

Happy B'day you hair suit kentleman!
 
Given the team make up (tall) expect a lot of playing on and direct footy from us, this excites me. Will be tough to mark it but we really need to be front and centre and out back to quell the rebound.

I think it will likely start out as a territory game, with kicking down the line and looking for the boundary to use our ruck advantage. This could persist for the game actually given the slippery conditions.
 

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I love doing a stats preview to these big games. It can show us how the games can be won or lost.

Things to note:

1.Center clearances is massive again. Geelong have effective Center clearance winners with the following averages:

Dangerfield - 2.1
Selwood - 1.8
Stanley - 1.6

Interesting to note that Stanley ranks highly. He’s the 3rd best ruckman behind Nic & Goldstein. Very important to minimise their impact on the game.

2. Clearances in general are very even across the board for the Cats. However, it’s obvious who their star player is.

Dangerfield - 4.7
Selwood - 4.0
Guthrie - 3.9
Stanley - 3.3

FWIW, we have 4 players who average more than 3.3 clearances.

3. Contested possessions highlights a major advantage for us. Dangerfield is the only cats player in the top 59 for contested possessions

Dangerfield - 11.6.
Selwood - 8.3

We have 4 players in the top 50. We can seriously hurt them in the midfield. We should be much better at the contest.

4. Our biggest advantage comes from their lack of intercept possessions. They’re the 2nd lowest intercept team in the comp. They only have 1 player in the top 70 for intercept possessions. We have 4.

Harry Taylor - 5.2 intercepts.

The reason why this is important is that it indicates that Geelongs defence will play one-on-one on our forwards. This plays into our hands. We have great individual goal kickers.

5.They rely on Hawkins, Miers & Rohan to kick majority of their goals. 70 of their 187 goals have come from those forwards. If we can minimise the above players impact, it will go a long way to us winning. When Hawkins kicks 3 goals or more, theyre 8/8. When Hawkins kicks 2 goals or less, they’re 4/10.

6.Cats have a massive strength which gets overlooked. They rate very highly for Score involvements. They have 6 players within the top 50. 3 in top 10.

Hawkins - 7.1
Dangerfield - 5.9
Stanley - 5.9
Duncan - 5.2
Ablett - 4.9
Rohan - 4.6
Menegola- 4.6

These are their most damaging players who are most likely to tear the game apart. FWIW, Danger, Hawkins & Rohan had 13 combined last time. We need to keep it to a similar number.

8. Geelong average over 10 marks I50. Hawkins averages over 3.5 marks I50 per game. That’s massive. He averages 1 mark more I50 than any other player in the league. We need to contain him. The next best is Dangerfield & Rohan who average about 1 per game.

9. Geelong not bringing in a 2nd KPF should really help us. This allows Moore to play the intercept role and he doesn’t necessarily need to be accountable for a KPF. He can help Roughead with Hawkins. Hawkins has only been kept goalless 3 times this year against Hawks, Port & Us. Last time Esava played, so Moore couldn’t impact marking contests as much.

10. Geelong is also a very low turnover team. They are the lowest in the league for turnovers. If we can clog the corridor and force them to take the long easy option that will help our defence immensely.

As per usual, the game is won in the midfield. I could list a whole lot of stats that show Dangerfield is their most important midfielder. Do we send Greenwood to him or let Pendles nullify Danger and let Greenwood nullify Guthrie?

At some point, Danger will be moved forward. I think Moore would be a great match up on him. He will have him covered for height and marking prowess.

Maynard to do his job on Ablett will be key to winning this game. Dull him out of the contest so he doesn’t get involved in those goal scoring opportunities.

Geelongs defence is going in very very tall. Their shortest defender is Bews at 186cms. Everyone else is 190cms & above. If we can get the ball to the ground our smalls should run rampant.

De Goey has kicked 16 goals in his last 5 finals. 14 goals in 6 Gabba games. Play him at Center bounces & run forward. Let him free.

Cox has kicked 8 in his last 3 finals. 14 goals in 8 Gabba games. Play him deep.

We are 9-1 when we kick 57 points or more. 10 goals is what we need.

Cox & Cameron had 7 contested marks between them against the Eagles. If they repeat this, we should win. Cameron playing also forces Bilicavs to ruck and not a silly midfielder.

Itll be interesting to see who Geelong use in the ruck when Stanley’s resting. If Blicavs goes into the ruck against Cameron, we still have De Goey, Mihocek & Cox in the forward line. Massive win for us.

If we play fast attacking football, we should win this football game. There are no reasons why we can’t win. Danger & Hawkins are their best opportunities to carry them over the line. We can nullify them. It’s 50/50, however, I can see us winning.

LETSSSSS GET THIS BREAD!! LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOO PIES!!!

P.S. I won’t be surprised if there’s a late change for the Cats. I think Esava will come in for someone. Makes no sense to put Blicavs into the ruck and let Moore run wild in the backline.
 
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Things I'd like to see:

1. Darcy Moore on JJK and Jordan Roughead on Darling.

JJK isn't a strong player, isn't the most athletic but he is a star player through his game sense and footy smarts. He leads efficiently and kicks precisely, and has proven to be a terrible matchup for a usually good shut down KPD in Roughead. Think Moore can blanket JJK through his athleticism and size even his reaction speed isn't as fast as JJK.

2. Adam Treloar to start on the bench.

For some unknown reason, possibly due to a lack of connection/chemistry with Grundy, but Treloar has been an exceptional stoppage clearance player (1st in the AFL), but has seriously struggled at centre bounces clearances (71st in the AFL). As a replacement, have De Goey start ONLY at the centre bounce before drifting forward. The value/synergy here does not extend to throw-ins/boundary stoppages, where Treloar/Pendles/Adams can easily hold their own.

3. Levi Greenwood to run with Tim Kelly

Tim Kelly has finally recaptured his 2019 form and has absolutely thrived in recent weeks with more midfield minutes due to others' injuries. But it's not the raw numbers that matter, it's the quality of his clearances that REALLY REALLY HURT. He bursts away from contests and penetrates the ball to deep inside 50, where if the ball is marked, a goal is all but inevitable. Now, the good news it, similar to Sidebottom and other light framed mids, he can easily be taken out of the game with a hard tag. Have Greenwood follow him in the middle and to their forward line, with Greenwood being a natural as both an inside mid and as a defender. I'm not afraid of Sheed/Shuey's random bombs but Kelly's clearances hurt, and we can't afford to let him run free.

4. Brodie Grundy to take more possessions for himself

Now, obviously his tap work hasn't improved, and has arguably worsened, and it's probably not something he can fix within a short amount of time. But the thing is, what made him so valuable and damaging in the first place was his ability to act as a 4th midfielder at centre bounces. So if his hitouts are ineffective, why don't we just let him focus on what he's always done best? I mean we have never been a strong centre bounce side, but in recent years we have at least broken even, and I say this is 90% thanks to Grundy.

5. Chris Mayne to play a defensive role on Andrew Gaff, and we focus on transition from the wing Daicos is on

Similar to Kelly, Gaff is what Kelly is to West Coast but on the outside. He is their only decent genuine wingman and a lot of the transition revolves around him. I'm not sure how much value Mayne adds as a defender or a forward, but if he can subdue Gaff's impact by even 25%, that's a win. On the other hand, we should take advantage of Daicos' ball winning ability and look to transition more from the wing he is on.
What I posted about our game plan last week ^^^

Glad to see Bucks taking a few notes from a far more superior coach such as myself, good job for going ahead with Treloar starting on bench (2), Greenwood to tag Kelly (3) and Mayne to play on Gaff (5). And while not doing (1) hurt us badly on both matchups, still a good effort considering we won, 7/10 coaching.

Now, moving onto this week's strategy.
 
Some on Cats’ board saying Rohan will be a late out, replaced by Ratugolea.

Rohan has a track record of going totally missing in finals and I’d have much preferred him to play. Ratugolea is inconsistent but his best stuff is scarily good and a very tough match up.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Some on Cats’ board saying Rohan will be a late out, replaced by Ratugolea.

Rohan has a track record of going totally missing in finals and I’d have much preferred him to play. Ratugolea is inconsistent but his best stuff is scarily good and a very tough match up.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I wouldn’t be shocked. Esava keeps Moore accountable. He can also jump in the ruck leaving Blicavs in defence.

The Pros of the change is that Rohan is the second leading goal kicker and involved in scores.

Maybe it’s a better structure for them but may not be as effective for their offence.
 
(1) Jordan Roughead on Tom Hawkins, Darcy Moore on Patrick Dangerfield

As mentioned before, Roughhead is much more suitable to take on KPFs with strength and Moore is more suitable to handle the smarter, leaner and more athletic KPFs. In our last encounter, Roughead was highly effective in nullifying Hawkins, keeping him goaless, this needs to be persisted with.

Now, in regards to Moore's matchup. Looking at Geelong's line-up this week, it appears that in addition to the 5 midfielders (3 inside + 2 on the wing) on field, they have also selected 3 midfielders on the bench. This tells me Geelong will heavily rotate their midfielders across the ground, and in comparison to our last game where Danger played almost exclusively as a midfielder due to Selwood's injury, Danger will most likely spend a large % of time resting up forward. And given how short Geelong's forward line is looking, Moore is perfect for this role, as evident in his dominance against similar types of superstars like Nathan Fyfe when he rested forward against us. Although, it's looking like Danger will play a much larger role up forward this week, so this should be close to a full-time matchup for Moore this week if Ratugolea doesn't play.

(2) Centre bounce setup - Levi Greenwood on Joel Selwood

Similar to last week, I would just like to emphasis that Treloar is a much better clearance at stoppages rather than centre bounces. And given that we haven't selected a suitable replacement, I'm expecting Greenwood to play a defensive role on Selwood, which is likely to be highly effective, as Selwood doesn't really have an outside game as a mechanism to break away from a tag and contribute elsewhere. Winning clearances is literally all Selwood can do, albeit a very useful role, take that away from him and his selection becomes meaningless. Although, with Selwood having had an operation done on his finger recently, it's highly likely that Selwood will have reduced game time (60% - 75%), and when he isn't available, we should be playing Treloar, or having Greenwood go onto Gutherie.


(3) Rest of the midfield setup - Scott Pendlebury on Patrick Dangerfield, Taylor Adams on Cam Gutherie (Treloar to exploit Geelong's weakest midfielder in rotation)

Pendlebury should go head to head on Dangerfield when they're competing in the middle, Pendles has shown to be quite capable at handling the larger inside mids as well as contributing to clearances on his own.

Adams has probably been our most prolific clearance winner, he should go also go head to head with Gutherie, who has been exceptional on the inside this year, and admittedly I had to think hard about whether Greenwood should be nullifying Selwood or Gutherie.

Also, given how many midfielders Geelong have selected, it's highly likely we will see the likes of Menegola, Simpson, Parfitt, Duncan in the middle. While Menegola can be quite capable, none of them runs both ways nor are they accountable for their opposition. Play Treloar against these guys, alleviate the burden of having to win the hard ball off his shoulders, and let him fully utilize his pace against these secondary midfielders.
 
;)

And the Idiot of this Village is Chris Scott

Deep down Chris knows he’s an underachiever, even in the womb Brad would bite him into submission

He knows he’s an accidental premiership coach – 2011 belonged to Peptide Wizardry and stars afforded by the Costa Cap

The pressure of Finals’ Failures is showing on Chris’ face, he has the beard of a homeless man after a kindly Salvo has given it a clip

His mouth is again farting helium in post-game pressers

And this week, Our Boys will make the pressure unbearable for Chris and his minions

We’re building for a Huge Beautiful score

Pendles, Tay, Daics, and Adz are willing it forward

Jordy, Coxy, and Checkers are looking more potent than rutting rhinos

And Pig has prepared something very special for Ducker

We can beat anyone

October is our Premiership Month – the Black and White Tsunami builds

Collingwood by 64 points

What you calling a village? Some of US down 'chere, who have to put up with these idiots, call it a wilderness ;)
 
Will Cameron and Grundy split the ruck again? I’m guessing they will because surely Cameron and Cox can’t both play forward?
Yeah, I'm assuming a similar case as last week. Leave Cox forward and have Grundy and Cameron battle the ruck issues.
 

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Game Day AFL Semi-Final - Matchday Discussion Collingwood@Geelong(Gabba – 7:40PM EDT)

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