Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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[ghostdog]

Just on the Hawks as that is who I have been discussing I would say Ridley plays the role Sicily does. High possession intercept back that plays a bit deeper. So I would say yes we are breaking the structure a bit to do it . What works for them is they have both Sicily and Scrimshaw as intercept defenders . They are weaker than us as far as they have Frost as the big defender and we have McKay . As far as small defenders go they use Amon and Impy and we use McGrath and Redman that compare. I would say they have more speed in that spot but our two are more solid defenders that can still run the footy.
I think our half back line is weaker as we lack their speed to break the lines.

I think so too. We lack versatility in attack from hb as a result. Been saying that for a while. It would give us a different option when sides go man-on-man against us as Port did. I think we thought Andy could run and carry, but realistically he's got about 10-15m before he has to kick.

I feel like the bottom will fall out of the Hawks backline sooner or later because Frost is overachieving.

 

[jdstorm]

I respectfully disagree. Calders, together with Duz, has given us the hardness through the middle that we have lacked this year. Take him out and our problems defending transition will return.

Sure. But right now we also have problems creating transition (although better with Ridley back) and we are playing a 20 goal a season wing at HB.

Calders run a carry out of the backline is arguably the best in the team (with Ridley and Merrett the only other players in the conversation) and his ability to play lockdown defense on the oppo’s 2nd best SF is hugely valuable (McGrath on No1) while also being able to create.

Hobbs is a hard at the ball inside mid who should be capable of replicating caldwells defensive presence in the middle who has spent most of the season out of position as an ineffective HF.

I think Caldwell is a good mid and would still want him to get some time there. In the B rotation.

But what I think is being shown here is the lack of depth of prototype/big bodied mids. Ideally you want 3 and right now we have 1 (Durham) 1 injury prone (Setters) and the Tsatas/Stringer/Perkins who all aren’t quite there for different reasons.

Bring in 1-2 guys who fit that description to help out Duz and Caldwell isn’t needed there. The teams balance issues are fixed and we can be dynamic in the back half and the middle

The alternative is keeping Caldwell in the middle. Stifling Hobbs development and bringing in flankers that make us too small as a team. Something I think is not ideal.

 

[Mikevk123]

I’m guttered we let Mass go. He should have been guaranteed a multi-year deal and given more games last year.

 

[jannissary]

I’m a big Karl Worner guy.

Good size, neat skills, runs like the clappers, good eastern suburbs boy, worth a look I think.

what’s his family like?

 

[Zach Package]

wasn't Ridley's kick in retention rate quit poor a season or two back when he finally took lift off to an elite AFL player he is

Since 2020 when he won the Creighton his kicking efficiency has been 85, 87, 85, 87 and 86 so far this year.

 

[Zach Package]

what’s his family like?

Vanilla as all hell. No links to organised crime

 

[ghostdog]

Sure. But right now we also have problems creating transition (although better with Ridley back) and we are playing a 20 goal a season wing at HB.

Calders run a carry out of the backline is arguably the best in the team (with Ridley and Merrett the only other players in the conversation) and his ability to play lockdown defense on the oppo’s 2nd best SF is hugely valuable (McGrath on No1) while also being able to create.

Hobbs is a hard at the ball inside mid who should be capable of replicating caldwells defensive presence in the middle who has spent most of the season out of position as an ineffective HF.

I think Caldwell is a good mid and would still want him to get some time there. In the B rotation.

But what I think is being shown here is the lack of depth of prototype/big bodied mids. Ideally you want 3 and right now we have 1 (Durham) 1 injury prone (Setters) and the Tsatas/Stringer/Perkins who all aren’t quite there for different reasons.

Bring in 1-2 guys who fit that description to help out Duz and Caldwell isn’t needed there. The teams balance issues are fixed and we can be dynamic in the back half and the middle

The alternative is keeping Caldwell in the middle. Stifling Hobbs development and bringing in flankers that make us too small as a team. Something I think is not ideal.

Except that Caldwell isn't a run and carry hbf. What small forwards has he played a lockdown role on? He's a very good field kick, yes, who we need in transition and going inside fifty.

I agree that the midfield needs Hobbs on rotation through there as well at the moment, but we're not going to solve the issue with our lack of drive from the back half by shifting a midfield defender back there.

You're right to say Ridley back again will help. We actually need Redman and McGrath, and Hind when he's back there, to take advantage of Ridley's intercepting, get on their bikes and be the first running receiver who Rids releases. They're all capable of running and delivering but they need to actually do it. It's fine to use Martin if he's playing the distribution role (though I'd also prefer he was up the ground), but it feels like these guys trained so hard with Marto back there that they're looking to hand the responsibility of the driving the ball forward to him every time. In part, there's Marto's guaranteed 20 touches in the back half. And another player doesn't have to move back to play Martin's role; Redman is an excellent field kick. Thete's no reason he couldn't take those kicks just as well but wouldn't try to pick off the low percentage ones that Martin does.

I agree we need another big body in the middle, but that fact also underscores the importance of Caldwell staying in the middle, supporting defence through the middle due to our shortage in that area.

The other part of this equation is the coaches' aspiration that we play as a front-half team. We only started playing as a back-half team recently, relying on Ridley and McKay especially and while Ridley was injured, Redman and Hepp, because we've had to carry midfield injuries. Part of that has relied on Caldwell in the middle, together with Duz and Setterfield, and Parish sacrificing part of his game. This is why we looked better against WB and GWS than against North and GC. Don't discount how much better our drive from the back looks when Duursma's there too.

We do need an electric running half back. I'd prefer a medium sized player but I'm not fussed. In the interim, Redman, McGrath and Hind need to be reminded that they have wheels and not to be so Martin-centric. The answer isn't to now switch Caldwell's role. That would undo all that we've trained to do.

 

[faible]

Since 2020 when he won the Creighton his kicking efficiency has been 85, 87, 85, 87 and 86 so far this year.

Retention rate is a different stat, one of those one's that Champion Data collect but only gets reported occasionally if I remember rightly.

There was a twitter post last year sometime that Merrett is effectively the best kick in the AFL and McGrath is really underrated, I'm sure someone can dig it up.

 

[fairbump_playon]

Wing / half back.
I think Scott knows half back is an issue. When I say we "need " spots filled I should clarify that it could be someone we have stepping up. Caddy could fill CHF. El-Hawli could fill a half back spot as could Roberts despite both playing wing as well . A Davey could fill a small forward spot. All of that could happen if they step up but we will still need some outside help coming in IMO as you can not hang your hat on "if" .

To be good you need maybe half of your internal ifs to come good. You have to plan for that, but it's hard to be sure which ones it will be.

That of course means half of them might fail so yes it makes sense to grab some proven talent.

Out of that list of four you mentioned, at this stage I'd bank on Caddy & Roberts personally. Caddy is obvious and while Roberts needs to get stronger, to me he just looks like a player.

El-Hawli is too early and ADJ could still go either way I reckon.

If all 4 come on, and we get more talent in, then good for us.

A measure of success for club list management should be what % of exiting players end up on another list vs delisted, career over.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

Retention rate is a different stat, one of those one's that Champion Data collect but only gets reported occasionally if I remember rightly.

There was a twitter post last year sometime that Merrett is effectively the best kick in the AFL and McGrath is really underrated, I'm sure someone can dig it up.

I think that were the guys from ABC, Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson, from memory they built their own model using available stats so I am guessing there isnt readily available data of kicking retention stats per game from the usual sources.

 

[faible]

I think that were the guys from ABC, Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson, from memory they built their own model using available stats so I am guessing there isnt readily available data of kicking retention stats per game from the usual sources.

https://x.com/crow_data_sci/status/1682325063918559233

Google and reading the comments makes me think this was probably the post / account, but it's suspended so the post is gone.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

https://x.com/crow_data_sci/status/1682325063918559233

Google and reading the comments makes me think this was probably the post / account, but it's suspended so the post is gone.

feel like a lot of independent footy data nerds who used Twitter to promote their analysis have been suspended since the move to X, an overzealous anti-spam filter I reckon.

 

[jannissary]

https://x.com/crow_data_sci/status/1682325063918559233

Google and reading the comments makes me think this was probably the post / account, but it's suspended so the post is gone.

i remember the post specifically and i think he deleted is account, i'll have a look if i can find it after work tonight

 

[Tazdog]

i remember the post specifically and i think he deleted is account, i'll have a look if i can find it after work tonight

What did it say? Was it linking us to someone?

 

[jannissary]

What did it say? Was it linking us to someone?

the tweet? it was a statistical analysis of the competitions best kicks, taking into account the difficulty of kicks, how often it results in retention (aka not a turnover) and similar stats

 

[joey_jo_jo]

https://x.com/crow_data_sci/status/1682325063918559233

Google and reading the comments makes me think this was probably the post / account, but it's suspended so the post is gone.

Yeah I remember that tweet now, and I think Cody/Sean did this follow up article which utilised his findings:

It's an age-old question: What makes a good kick in the AFL?

What constitutes an effective or ineffective kick has been discussed for years, but one data scientist thinks he may have unlocked the next evolution of settling this debate, write Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson.

www.abc.net.au

 

[footyfanatic111]

It’s a fair offer from Geelong.
To pry him out, we’d be looking at 850 X 5 or something.

Massive list need… but is it too much?
Just posing the question

 

[eth-dog]

It’s a fair offer from Geelong.
To pry him out, we’d be looking at 850 X 5 or something.

Massive list need… but is it too much?
Just posing the question

Very comfortable offering that. I'd even go to 950 tbh.

 

[footyfanatic111]

I guess 800 is the new 600 with the cap increases coming. I’m on board aswell. I wonder if saints would offer near a mil


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[ant555]

It’s a fair offer from Geelong.
To pry him out, we’d be looking at 850 X 5 or something.

Massive list need… but is it too much?
Just posing the question

Not really. People need to get their heads around the fact that when the cap goes up in the near enough future $800k is going to be the mark that $600k currently is as you have said.. Good player but not the top end. We could probably entertain $900k

 

[doug85]

It’s a fair offer from Geelong.
To pry him out, we’d be looking at 850 X 5 or something.

Massive list need… but is it too much?
Just posing the question

Nah just pay up. We need him and we can afford it

 

[EnolaGay]

It’s a fair offer from Geelong.
To pry him out, we’d be looking at 850 X 5 or something.

Massive list need… but is it too much?
Just posing the question

 

[MiguelM]

Nah just pay up. We need him and we can afford it

I think he fills an immediate need and another preseason into Davey could be a very exciting forward line.

 

[Snake Charmer]

If we are offering Perryman 800k surely we can offer Stengle more

 

[Zach Package]

700k is a close enough number given he’s been booted from 2 clubs and doesn’t have a massive body of work.

4 years is downright bizarre and almost asking for him to walk out, which should be a red flag to chasing clubs in and of itself.