AFL vs. NBA

[Coffeechill]

Aside from this season, trade week tends to be a pointless, boring crock. As it is, this year, it remains pretty much the same with the notable exception of the Judd trade but even THAT is starting to bore me senseless.

There's been a lot of talk about "tanking" in AFL and whether it is a reality or not the TEMPTATION to tank is certainly there. My solution to avoid this would be to not reward the bottom side with priority picks in the draft and, rather, adopt the NBA's approach to player trading and recruitment.

I'm not a huge NBA fan personally but I do follow it to a degree and the system for drafting players that theyve got in place is a thing called the Draft Lottery. In this system, they have a certain number of "chances" for teams, ranked in order of how they finished the season. (ie. the team at the bottom of the league gets the most chances and, therefore, has a higher probability of being drawn out as the number 1 pick). I think this system is more efficient for fair play and well-contested sport throughout the season because it doesnt GUARANTEE the bottom team the first pick necessarily, although laws of probability would suggest that they would still get it MOST of the team. In AFL, this system would alleviate "tanking" because, after all, why would a team hedge their bets and lose matches for the sake of the first pick when there's a chance that they won't get it?

The other thing I think would be a good idea would be to allow trading during the season. The NBA does this and it makes the season much more interesting off the field. It also means that a player who is disheartened with a club, or not fitting the team mould as well, can be swapped to another team. Don't worry, the AFL is conservative enough during trade week to let me think that a season-wide trade system wouldn't be a constant stream of players changing clubs and playing for the highest bidder (much like the hired guns of the west) and it would be great for teams in the bottom four to dig themselves out of a rut mid-season by pulling off a winning trade that bounds them up the ladder. I'm all for good sportsmanship and I think that it would certainly even up the competition.

Thoughts?

 

[FM0226]

I'm in with the lottery system. Coming dead last does not automatically reward you with the first draft - it gives you the most chance to, but the NBA had not been rewarded to the worst team in the NBA for while, usually goes to 2nd, 3rd or 4th last teams - Karma gets you back really quick when you tank. The perfect of the 'ping-pong' balls will at worst give you around 4th or 5th, which frankly should be able to help a bad team rebuilt.

As for trading, maybe at the half-way point of the season, we get a two week break - we can put the state of origin on one of the weekends and have the week leading up to origin as a 'restricted' trading period- something along the lines of each club is only limited one trade and one delisting. If a player is delisted then they are allow to elevate a rookie or get a player. Something like that so that trades may occur, but not at a level that will cause a lot of disruption.

 

[Coffeechill]

i like the trade idea but i dont see the point in putting a limit on it. clubs are so bloody conservative when it comes to trading that hardly any of them will decide to make one at all. its mainly for the players who want a change and teams who want to re-jig their rosters.

 

[Jesbo]

its not real good when your team (BOSTON) comes second last and then ends up with 5th pick.

 

[FM0226]

i like the trade idea but i dont see the point in putting a limit on it. clubs are so bloody conservative when it comes to trading that hardly any of them will decide to make one at all. its mainly for the players who want a change and teams who want to re-jig their rosters.

I guess I want the mid-year trading system more for players that can play but can't get a game for various and get them a chance to play some football rather than as a tool for clubs to recruit heavily.

But maybe a limit isn't needed since the number of squad no.s are set and it's unlikely that a club can find that many trades within a week anyway. But yeah, at least clubs should be able to delist and elevate rookies - in the existing system, if a player retires mid-season, but not due to injury, a rookie isn't allowed to be elevated in his place - which I think it's ridiculous.

 

[Coffeechill]

yea probably not great for boston but its luck of the draw as far as im concerned. the ping-pong balls didnt fall their way that year but they gave themselves the second-most chances. i just think an idea like this would eliminate the need for tanking.

im probably wrong but milwaukee were something like 9th last the year they snagged bogut, had just 16 chances and nabbed the 1st pick. if this were afl the first pick this year wouldve gone to st. kilda. makes it interesting doesnt it?

 

[AndSmithMustScore]

AFL teams don't tank.

Whoever is out on the park is trying i'm sure.

 

[AndSmithMustScore]

yea probably not great for boston but its luck of the draw as far as im concerned. the ping-pong balls didnt fall their way that year but they gave themselves the second-most chances. i just think an idea like this would eliminate the need for tanking.

im probably wrong but milwaukee were something like 9th last the year they snagged bogut, had just 16 chances and nabbed the 1st pick. if this were afl the first pick this year wouldve gone to st. kilda. makes it interesting doesnt it?

So an AFL team that finishes with 10 wins deserves the #1 pick over a team that won 2?

That's gonna go some way to equalising the league isn't it.

 

[FM0226]

its not real good when your team (BOSTON) comes second last and then ends up with 5th pick.

Well, that's exact how it works, it doesn't award the tankers - And Boston tanked badly last season - and it forced them into action because they didn't get the pick and now they have one of the best players in the league.

Right now, the AFL Draft provides too much incentives to play not just badly, but EXTREMELY badly - and that's hardly what people will want to see. Maybe we can introduce some kind of brackets system - Bottom 4 teams goes to the lottery for the first 4 picks - so the worst that the worst team in the comp will get is a fourth pick (which frankly should be enough 'reward' for a bad season). That way, there's not a lot of incentives for teams to make sure they finish bottom or have no more than 4 wins a season.

 

[AndSmithMustScore]

Well, that's exact how it works, it doesn't award the tankers - And Boston tanked badly last season - and it forced them into action because they didn't get the pick and now they have one of the best players in the league.

Right now, the AFL Draft provides too much incentives to play not just badly, but EXTREMELY badly - and that's hardly what people will want to see. Maybe we can introduce some kind of brackets system - Bottom 4 teams goes to the lottery for the first 4 picks - so the worst that the worst team in the comp will get is a fourth pick (which frankly should be enough 'reward' for a bad season). That way, there's not a lot of incentives for teams to make sure they finish bottom or have no more than 4 wins a season.

Yeah Pierce deliberately missed 2/3 of the season.

 

[FM0226]

So an AFL team that finishes with 10 wins deserves the #1 pick over a team that won 2?

That's gonna go some way to equalising the league isn't it.

Obviously you have no idea how the lottery system in the NBA work.

1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

No.14 is the equivalent to the side that ends up 9th or 10th, so they would have less than say 1% of getting a first pick as oppose to 25% to the team that finished last, 20% for the team that finished second last.

Obviously if we adapt this system the percentages will be re-looked at. But really, I don't see why the team that came last necessarily needs help more a team that comes second last - they should have a equal crack at the 1st pick. And priority picks are just a joke.

 

[FM0226]

Yeah Pierce deliberately missed 2/3 of the season.

Well, that's what happens when you try to rebuild through a young team. If you actually sat through of the Boston's later games, have a look at the rotations in the last quarter used by Rivers - it's tanking at its worst. And getting a fith pick isn't bad, they got ray allen out of the it and in turn got garnett. If they had the number one pick and got oden...

 

[The Casey Cat]

Agree with the proposals here. I think a draft lottery and a one or two week restricted trade period mid year would be a great idea.

 

[m.diddy]

The reason why AFL is so much better than international comps is because clubs and players are so loyal. Would you really want this to turn into a franchise type thing where players play for 6 clubs throughout their whole career, watch the beginning of the movie baseketball to give you an idea as to what would happen.

Don't mind lottery though.

 

[Inferno]

The lottery system won't stop tanking, it just means teams aren't rewarded for mediocrity as much.

 

[Choc4Life]

its not real good when your team (BOSTON) comes second last and then ends up with 5th pick.

Especially in a draft year with Oden and Durant.

The mid season split round should be abolished in favour of a mid season break where all teams have a week off at the same time avoiding the problems of 2week break teams playing teams off 1 week break.

During this mid season break trading should be allowed, including future draft picks for that year and the following years draft.

The argument that the teams will trade away their future is a joke. Any team who is stupid enough to wreck themselves through trades shouldn't be in the comp anyway. There has been enough time now (since the inception of the national league) for teams to realize the good old days of management won't work in todays AFL.

 

[dooda]

I like the lottery idea but make it between the bootom 4 sides

 

[Borgsta]

Well, that's what happens when you try to rebuild through a young team. If you actually sat through of the Boston's later games, have a look at the rotations in the last quarter used by Rivers - it's tanking at its worst. And getting a fith pick isn't bad, they got ray allen out of the it and in turn got garnett. If they had the number one pick and got oden...

Haha you are asking the Biggest Boston fan here if he watched games towards the end of the season?

Boston tanked to an extent but Rivers is a horrible coach anyway.

 

[The Chad]

my understanding is that tanking is a far more accepted practise in the NBA and in the cases of when le-bron was in the draft and also boston this year, cheered and publically backed by their fans (ie, a more public fashion than simply condoning it on the internet like carlton fans did on bigfooty)

therefore when a team like boston gets screwed over in the draft there's no real sympathy, it's just part of the game

 

[Gavin Excell]

any comparison on any level, on any element , on any aspect to the sheer tedium that is f...ng basketball is atrocious. Hang your head in shame.

 

[RockJobster0312]

Problem with the lottery is that it can only work in codes with a greater number of teams - something around 20+. The reason is, that the odds of the lottery will either be too favorable to the team finishing bottom, or not favourable enough for the team finishing bottom. The borderline is a thin one (as opposed to the NBA and NHL - which I believe has the same system) which would obviously be determined with a) how many 'balls' were in the lottery and b) the odds determined by the teams able to compete in the lottery.

The lottery sparks a lot MORE tanking if anything. For example, if a team who was placed 11th or 12th on the ladder, and with 3 rounds to go, they knew that the chances of making the Finals were slim. The difference between the circumstances of the current system, and the circumstances of the lottery is that the current system almost forces those teams to go all hell out to make the Finals, as there is nothing to lose, whereas the lottery system would tell the team to 'tank' the last 3 games in an attempt to get more balls in the lottery and thus a higher chance of landing a top 3 pick.

Plus, the other thing with not having 20+ teams is that if a situation like what happened in the NBA Draft this year happens in an AFL lottery, the repocussions would be must harsher for the team that doesn't get the high pick. In the NBA, there are 14 teams that don't make the Finals every year. Generally, the sides ranked as the 17th (30 teams in the NBA, thus the best lottery team is the 17th best team in the league) to 20th are borderline playoff teams. Whereas, in the AFL generally, the 9th-11th/12th teams are borderline Finals teams. Now in the lottery system, the 17th team could get the #1 pick, as could the 9th in the NBA. However, the odds are greater of this happening in the AFL to the NBA. In the NBA Draft just gone, the 23rd worst team (7th in terms of odds of getting the number 1 pick) got the number 1 pick. However, that team is still very poor a team. Whereas if the NBA was to see the 12th team get the number 1 overall pick, that team would be so much better off because of it.

Plus, in the NBA, if you finish third last in the season the worst pick you can get is the 6th overall. The team that finishes 2nd last gets at worst, the 5th pick in the draft. And the team that has the worst record in the NBA can at worst, get the 4th overall selection in the draft. Now I might be wrong on that, however, there is a limit to where a team can go if they fail to get a top 3 pick. That wouldn't work in the AFL as there is not enough teams. Where would it start? The First teams worst pick could be the 3rd, and the 2and worst the 4th? Works in theory, but there would be little point in its effectiveness in reality.

Good idea, and a great system - but the AFL isn't large enough to use it.

 

[FM0226]

Problem with the lottery is that it can only work in codes with a greater number of teams - something around 20+. ....Good idea, and a great system - but the AFL isn't large enough to use it.

Obviously the system will need to be modified if they are going to work/ But I don't see why a lottery could encourage more tanking then the existing system where it simply awards the bad teams directly.

My idea is to have brackets. So you group the bottom 4 as a bracket, 8-12 as a bracket, 4-8, 1-4 etc. And the lottery runs with in each bracket.

So the worst result for the bottom is a 4th pick and the percentage with probabl something similar to:

Bracket 1 - picks 1-4

Chance of getting 1st Pick:
Team came last - 35%
Team came 15th - 30%
Team came 14th - 25%
Team came 13th - 10%

Something like that so there's a not a huge difference between the bottom three at getting the pick while the 4th last team still gets a shot at it, but the worst it'll get is still a 4th pick.

 

[dmc333]

And in trading NBA clubs are actually prepared to 'give up' to 'get.'

AFL clubs are too scared of making a bad trade, then having it mentioned in trade conversations for the next 10 years.

 

[Kram]

Reverse ladder is fine.

Just F@#K off the priority picks, no team is going to tank losing supporters for a piddly upgrade of a couple of spots in the draft.

Just need to get rid of the ridiculous temptation Ala Carlton this year, what a joke.

 

[RockJobster0312]

Obviously the system will need to be modified if So the worst result for the bottom is a 4th pick and the percentage with probabl something similar to:

Bracket 1 - picks 1-4

Chance of getting 1st Pick:
Team came last - 35%
Team came 15th - 30%
Team came 14th - 25%
Team came 13th - 10%

Thats a really good idea, and would definatley help in terms of addressing certain problems that would arise if the AFL were to go to a lottery system, but it still wouldn't stamp out tanking.

For example, if you were 11th and 12th, and still could make the bottom four bracket, and you knew you were a slim chance to make the Finals with three rounds to go, what would you do? Or more to the point, what could some teams (and some would) do in the situation? You finish 12th and you are in the best position to get pick 5; but by know means are guaranteed it. OR, you can get a guaranteed top 4 pick with a chance of getting the number 1 pick. Plus, the teams that finish in that bracket and still tank to improve thier chances.