Apple Isle Showdown: Tas Govt threatens to end Hawks, North deals if no plan for 19th side

[Bicco]

The AFL are thinking long term. That's always been clear.

They want to capture a significant slice of the massive population growth in South East Queensland and they're well on the way to doing so.

2050 projected populations (Australia is projected to have 37.6 million)

• Tasmania - possibly 650,000 (The Tasmanian Government has set a target to grow the population to 650,000 people by 2050 to drive economic growth)
• Sydney - 7.7 million
• South East Queensland - 6 million (1.1 million on the Gold Coast)

The AFL believe that continued exposure of AFL at all levels will see growth in participation rates and interest.

For example 2017 overall participation across all levels of the game in Queensland jumped 10.21 per cent to a then record 252,624. In 2018 participation grew by a further 5.2%. Overall all competitions and programs grew to 265,760 participants. Participation in club football grew a further 3.5% to 30,351 participants.

Thirty years down the track with more young people playing AFL that will translate into greater adult interest, greater crowds and greater membership. For young elite athletes, there are clear pathways to play at the highest level in Queensland, instead of adopting alternative sports. Having two teams in Queensland enables more Queensland footballers to do that, especially via the Academies."



But it won't happen at the expense of Gold Coast. For the above reasons.

I believe all of what you have written.
I don't believe that the 'on paper' expansion of population will correlate to the increase of participants that the AFL projects it will. As I've said, their inability to connect with junior leagues is a real problem. The AFL has little interest in anything but the AFL competition and the vested interests there in.
If the AFL'S plan is bordering on some sort of participation osmosis, then they will struggle

 

[robo_1]

Have a guess how many Victorians are in the Melbourne Storm 30 player squad?

ZERO.

Dean Ieremia

 

[Roylion]

I don't believe that the 'on paper' expansion of population will correlate to the increase of participants that the AFL projects it will.

I don't think there's any doubt that participation will increase. It continues to do so.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-24/afl-experiencing-significant-boom-in-queensland/12804800

https://www.aflq.com.au/afl-participation-in-queensland-reaches-record-high/

Thirty years down the track with more young people playing AFL that will translate into greater adult interest, greater crowds and greater membership.

For young elite athletes, there are clear pathways to play at the highest level in Queensland, instead of adopting alternative sports.

 

[Bicco]

I don't think there's any doubt that participation will increase. It continues to do so.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-24/afl-experiencing-significant-boom-in-queensland/12804800

https://www.aflq.com.au/afl-participation-in-queensland-reaches-record-high/

Thirty years down the track with more young people playing AFL that will translate into greater adult interest, greater crowds and greater membership.

For young elite athletes, there are clear pathways to play at the highest level in Queensland, instead of adopting alternative sports.

I disagree with the reading of the demographics. I don't disagree with those figures. But figures are rubbery.
There's a lot of the right demographics in SE QLD right now. But that won't continue, those kids will up and leave at some point and the figures will look worse.
Demographically, I don't think the population growth will continue to give the results being forecast or even thought of.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Just as a point on 'generational change', we've had examples of how that hasn't happened in the EPL with subcontinental persons. We've seen it not happen with the Vietnamese who've been here in significant numbers since 1975.

To compare, Melbourne Storm have been in existence & been pretty successful since 1998. They play in a city of some 5million people in a State of 6.2 million. On TV often. Lots of super stars that attract attention.

Also, RL has been played in Victoria for over 100 years. They have 12 clubs playing.

Have a guess how many Victorians are in the Melbourne Storm 30 player squad?

ZERO.

Where have I ever mentioned “generational change”? And just about every AFL side outside of Melbourne have home grown players, without doing research, I’d suggest they all do. That’s why AFL is the truly national game. You are talking waffle with the EPL stuff, totally irrelevant to the conversation.

 

[BigBreakfast]

I don't see NT/Darwin ever getting a side TBH. It just doesn't have the population and also has massive logistical and weather based issues. Canberra is a much more likely proposition.

Fair enough, I was going to suggest Canberra but I deleted the comment because GWS are farming that area and it is regional RL territory.

 

[Walshawk]

Just because you were a Fitzroy member in 1996 doesnt mean you were a Brisabe Liosn memebr in 1997. I know quitw a few that were not members in 1996 yet joined in 1997. The Bears also had Victorian members in 1996.



Or more Queenslanders joined the Brisbane Lions on the back of Brisbane's finals appearances in 1995 and 1996, (in the latter year they reached a preliminary final)



North and Gold Coast are and will contiinue to be in the AFL competition. Tasmania won't be replacing either.

Yep. How can anyone say North don’t deserve their place. In the last 50 years they have won twice as many flags as Collingwood. More than every Vic club besides Hawthorn. Richmond and Carlton. Equal with Essendon. Yes they are the smallest Vic club but they are well run as well as successful. Have a look at St Kilda or Melbourne if you want to lose a club (I don’t). Saints are stuffed financially and have not won a flag in 55 years. List and draft concessions may even away them to move to Gold Coast.

 

[Roylion]

There's a lot of the right demographics in SE QLD right now. But that won't continue, those kids will up and leave at some point and the figures will look worse.

Up and leave to go where?

Demographically, I don't think the population growth will continue to give the results being forecast or even thought of.

Why? More exposure of the game will drive rates of partipation and in areas of high population growth the potential is enormous.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/30152190/afl-grand-final-2020-season-means-queensland-footy

 

[Established1870]

So just looked it up, there are 10 Professional Footballers of South Asian extraction out of 4000 in England. The South Asian population of England is 7.5%.

Most of the issues in regards to the lack of South Asians in the modern English game are mostly down to racism to put it bluntly and a lot of studies have been commissioned on this very subject which prove it.

 

[the big lebowski]

Yep. How can anyone say North don’t deserve their place. In the last 50 years they have won twice as many flags as Collingwood. More than every Vic club besides Hawthorn. Richmond and Carlton. Equal with Essendon. Yes they are the smallest Vic club but they are well run as well as successful. Have a look at St Kilda or Melbourne if you want to lose a club (I don’t). Saints are stuffed financially and have not won a flag in 55 years. List and draft concessions may even away them to move to Gold Coast.

Thankyou

The obsession from some to kill clubs is ridiculous.

As is the lack of a Tasmanian team. We are going to 20 teams and here is an opportunity to have one under written by a state govt.

Key board warrior efficiency experts on this thread fail to grasp a simple concept. Nothing is more profitable than heart and soul. Without that you don’t have passion. And that is the sole reason AFL football is the domestic bohemath it is. And precisely the reason it will only ever stay domestic.

Tasmania is a football state. The AFL should do anything within reason to ensure it stays that way. The team will be supported and loved by the state, and hold interest for other AFL supporters. This will help ratings. More so than a plastic start up on the Gold Coast that’s for sure.

Just like those that argue to relocate ie kill North (or whoever). North has a quarter of a million supporters. Sure that might be the lowest or close to the lowest of the traditional clubs, but that passion is gold. It’s so much harder to win people over to love your product and yet some advocate severely jeapordiding the loyalty/passion of 250kish customers?

People say Victoria can’t sustain 10 teams (with literally no evidence to support this), yet I argue it’s those smaller clubs that help sustain the league.

 

[madmug]

Dean Ieremia

No.

 

[madmug]

I don't think there's any doubt that participation will increase. It continues to do so.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-24/afl-experiencing-significant-boom-in-queensland/12804800

https://www.aflq.com.au/afl-participation-in-queensland-reaches-record-high/

Thirty years down the track with more young people playing AFL that will translate into greater adult interest, greater crowds and greater membership.

For young elite athletes, there are clear pathways to play at the highest level in Queensland, instead of adopting alternative sports.

It might. It hasn't for the AL.

It doesn't matter anyway. GCS are a fact now.

One just hopes the AFL are at least 1/2 right with this.

It could be an extremely costly venture for whatever real growth on long term support they might get.

A generational handover of $25mil per annum plus all the rest of the development costs they pour in is an awfully huge gamble on the outcome they'd like.

Maybe a generation of junior development first, before an AFL club?

 

[madmug]

Where have I ever mentioned “generational change”? And just about every AFL side outside of Melbourne have home grown players, without doing research, I’d suggest they all do. That’s why AFL is the truly national game. You are talking waffle with the EPL stuff, totally irrelevant to the conversation.

I never said you did. The AFL do & I said 'just a point on ---' etc

But if it doesn't suit your worldly views, ignore it. The AFL do.

 

[Carringbush2010]

You have no trouble following your team when living interstate.

Old South Melbourne have no trouble following the Swans, ditto Fitzroy/the Lions.

Suggestions Vic fans will abandon the game they love because the team move interstate are overstated.

I do have trouble following my team from wa, can't get to games.

I lot of old South fans don't follow the league any more, same with the Roys, just ask Roylion.

Point is if you relocate a team to where your members and fans can't get to the their games you can't expect them to just accept that and follow in blind loyalty. Just ask North members they seemed to have an issue when they were proposed to move to GC

 

[robo_1]

No.

who was wearing the number 2 jersey on the weekend in albury then


And Melbourne Storm must be putting out fake news then

Being only the second-ever born and raised Victorian to play in the Melbourne Storm jersey is a pretty cool claim to fame for 18 year old Dean Ieremia.

Young talent on the rise

Being only the second-ever born and raised Victorian to play in the Melbourne Storm jersey is a pretty cool claim to fame for 18 year old Dean Ieremia.

www.melbournestorm.com.au

 

[Canberra Pear]

Fair enough, I was going to suggest Canberra but I deleted the comment because GWS are farming that area and it is regional RL territory.

AF far outstrips RL for participation in Canberra, and GWS crowds are not far off the Raiders crowds so I think Canberra would get right behind their own team.

They've also got triple the population of Darwin.

 

[Walshawk]

Thankyou

The obsession from some to kill clubs is ridiculous.

As is the lack of a Tasmanian team. We are going to 20 teams and here is an opportunity to have one under written by a state govt.

Key board warrior efficiency experts on this thread fail to grasp a simple concept. Nothing is more profitable than heart and soul. Without that you don’t have passion. And that is the sole reason AFL football is the domestic bohemath it is. And precisely the reason it will only ever stay domestic.

Tasmania is a football state. The AFL should do anything within reason to ensure it stays that way. The team will be supported and loved by the state, and hold interest for other AFL supporters. This will help ratings. More so than a plastic start up on the Gold Coast that’s for sure.

Just like those that argue to relocate ie kill North (or whoever). North has a quarter of a million supporters. Sure that might be the lowest or close to the lowest of the traditional clubs, but that passion is gold. It’s so much harder to win people over to love your product and yet some advocate severely jeapordiding the loyalty/passion of 250kish customers?

People say Victoria can’t sustain 10 teams (with literally no evidence to support this), yet I argue it’s those smaller clubs that help sustain the league.

Studying marketing I was taught that It cost 10 times more to find a new customer compared to servicing existing one properly. It makes no sense that the AGL is happy to spend $25m per year trying to dig up the occasional new fan in RL territory, but doesn’t want to accept $11m per year from the Tas govt to ensure that a while state remains AFL heartland. A classic case of looking a gift horse in the mouth.

 

[Ando727]

Studying marketing I was taught that It cost 10 times more to find a new customer compared to servicing existing one properly. It makes no sense that the AGL is happy to spend $25m per year trying to dig up the occasional new fan in RL territory, but doesn’t want to accept $11m per year from the Tas govt to ensure that a while state remains AFL heartland. A classic case of looking a gift horse in the mouth.

Pretty much.It shows the dreamland these bean counters are living in when they base everything on forward projections - as though the population of non-heartland AFL areas owes them some attention. AFL will never dominate QLD or NSW - the world is changing, there are other competing forces (many of which aren't even sporting). It's more financially sound to shore up your strengths so you don't lose them and have to recoup the losses elsewhere. The AFL is acting like Tassie will always be there waiting for them when they're ready to exploit them, but that will not be the case. Tassie could easily transition into a QLD of sorts - and I couldn't blame us if we did. I'm less interested in the AFL down here than I was in Melbourne because there is no proper AFL presence. If we had an A-league team, I'd probably go to those games rather than a North/Hawthorn AFL match. Same for NBL. I'd rather go watch something that has some local connection than just be a blind follower of AFL just because that's what I've always been in the past.

 

[Papa G]

90,000 existing paid up members in Tassie apparently. The Vic State Govt/AFL clearly doesn't want that to stop coming in supporting the Vic clubs. At let say $100 a pop that's $9 mill of Tassie money going to Vic clubs. On top of the money the Tassie State Govt puts in. Toot Toot.

The Tassie support for their VFL clubs won't die over night, but it will dissipate over time if they have their own club.

 

[Kwality]

Studying marketing I was taught that It cost 10 times more to find a new customer compared to servicing existing one properly. It makes no sense that the AGL is happy to spend $25m per year trying to dig up the occasional new fan in RL territory, but doesn’t want to accept $11m per year from the Tas govt to ensure that a while state remains AFL heartland. A classic case of looking a gift horse in the mouth.

Did you studies run to media rights?

 

[Walshawk]

Did you studies run to media rights?

Nah Was back in the late 90s when media rights were nothing. However, given nobody in Sydney actually watches the Giants, what do you think that they real value is? Certainly a lot less than any game involving a WA, SA or Vic club?

 

[Walshawk]

90,000 existing paid up members in Tassie apparently. The Vic State Govt/AFL clearly doesn't want that to stop coming in supporting the Vic clubs. At let say $100 a pop that's $9 mill of Tassie money going to Vic clubs. On top of the money the Tassie State Govt puts in. Toot Toot.

The Tassie support for their VFL clubs won't die over night, but it will dissipate over time if they have their own club.

Very good point. Hawthorn and North would drop 5k members straight away, but other club memberships might hold for a decade or so. But more games in Melbourne and at Marvel could make up for that.

 

[Papa G]

Very good point. Hawthorn and North would drop 5k members straight away, but other club memberships might hold for a decade or so. But more games in Melbourne and at Marvel could make up for that.

Yeah not sure about that. North struggle to pull a crowd under any circumstances and Hawthorn struggle to get good crowds when struggling on field. Both are looking at bottom 4 finishes this year. Part of the reason clubs sell games is that they can't make money because they don't bring in enough of their own. Hawthorn will be right, they are big and rich enough to get through the troughs, but North just aren't. More games at Marvel ain't suddenly getting more people going. The loss of members and cash from Tasmania will no doubt hurt Hawthorn but not fatally, but North.... well they're back in the shit again.

 

[Walshawk]

Yeah not sure about that. North struggle to pull a crowd under any circumstances and Hawthorn struggle to get good crowds when struggling on field. Both are looking at bottom 4 finishes this year. Part of the reason clubs sell games is that they can't make money because they don't bring in enough of their own. Hawthorn will be right, they are big and rich enough to get through the troughs, but North just aren't. More games at Marvel ain't suddenly getting more people going. The loss of members and cash from Tasmania will no doubt hurt Hawthorn but not fatally, but North.... well they're back in the sh*t again.

Albury will be calling North.

 

[Kwality]

Nah Was back in the late 90s when media rights were nothing. However, given nobody in Sydney actually watches the Giants, what do you think that they real value is? Certainly a lot less than any game involving a WA, SA or Vic club?

Search me ! My point was its one thing to look at potential revenue, but what will it cost to generate it, a $motza ..