April - Daily Punt

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Means nothing at all, get back horses who draw inside are more than likely going to find trouble in the run particularly in sprint races, he is much better off drawing out, he needs gaps to open on the rail (won't happen if playing to inside again) and or get right back & come around them.

In my opinion brings him back to the pack and makes his task much harder, he is still probably good enough but barrier 1 is the last barrier I would have wanted him to draw.

Agree in part, but because it is 1400 they may ride him a touch closer this week, say 3 back the fence. Not like he is a pull merchant or anything, seems to relax well in his races.

Still not a race I'm terribly interested right now to be honest, but i may have a decent play on Dissident come the weekend (distance:6-3-2-1, pretty much bomb proof to run top three in this sort of WFA race, $11 is crazy) if he goes there but ill wait to see how the track is playing before i dive into anything at all.

 

[Main Man]

Win, lose or draw $2.60 about Trust in A Gust at Caulfield on Saturday was too good to refuse, haven't even finished assessing the race as yet but thought he would go up odds on.

If he is right he should be winning.

 

[Main Man]

Agree in part, but because it is 1400 they may ride him a touch closer this week, say 3 back the fence. Not like he is a pull merchant or anything, seems to relax well in his races.

Still not a race I'm terribly interested right now to be honest, but i may have a decent play on Dissident come the weekend (distance:6-3-2-1, pretty much bomb proof to run top three in this sort of WFA race, $11 is crazy) if he goes there but ill wait to see how the track is playing before i dive into anything at all.

I hope they do ride Chautauqua closer, he leads in his jumps outs so not sure why he always has to go back but that seems to be his pattern in races regardless of early pace.

If he could race more forward in his races whilst still maintaining his late sprint he would be near on unbeatable.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Win, lose or draw $2.60 about Trust in A Gust at Caulfield on Saturday was too good to refuse, haven't even finished assessing the race as yet but thought he would go up odds on.

If he is right he should be winning.

Who is that with?

I can't see any prices up for that race yet

$2.60 is very very good if you're already on, well done.

 

[Main Man]

Who is that with?

I can't see any prices up for that race yet

$2.60 is very very good if you're already on, well done.

TAB, they are $2.40 now but honestly thought he would go up odds on, other than Tycoon Tara this is more a less a race of off season horses, he is a dual G1 winner (handicaps but high rating ones) and he is only 2kgs above the limit (not including Afleet Esprit).

He is a tough horse with a great winning record, drawn to stalk the speed, if he is good to go then I can't see him losing this to be honest.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

TAB, they are $2.40 now but honestly thought he would go up odds on, other than Tycoon Tara this is more a less a race of off season horses, he is a dual G1 winner (handicaps but high rating ones) and he is only 2kgs above the limit (not including Afleet Esprit).

He is a tough horse with a great winning record, drawn to stalk the speed, if he is good to go then I can't see him losing this to be honest.

Agree, all over the $2.40, good find, thanks.

I rate River Delta as better than off season but not up to TIAG with only a 2kg advantage.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

After a quick assessment and market for that race on my form program and data i have TIAG @ $1.70, very very happy to be on @ $2.40, and I'm about to go again now

 

[RWnBluey]

After a quick assessment and market for that race on my form program and data i have TIAG @ $1.70, very very happy to be on @ $2.40, and I'm about to go again now

At work searching for a market for TIAG all morning waiting to snap up an opening price, $2.60 comes up TAB go to load up and the website wouldn't work for me on my phone, download the TAB app... the piece of shi.t doesn't even allow you to look beyond tomorrows racing.... By this stage into $2.40 (urge to kill, rising), try website again... nope. Try other books, nope. Finish work, get home, login... $2.20 F U TAB


.... and you too A11dAtP0w3R! prob you that was winding him in

 

[bombers21]

Trust In A Gust was in a pretty bad way with his injury and not sure he's fully wound up here.

Clearly the best horse but happy to oppose.

Don't mind Worth A Ransom at $31 or Tudor at $12

 

[Main Man]

Trust In A Gust was in a pretty bad way with his injury and not sure he's fully wound up here.

Clearly the best horse but happy to oppose.

Don't mind Worth A Ransom at $31 or Tudor at $12

What injury are you referring to? I don't recall him being injured at all?

 

[Main Man]

He had some form of leg injury but I have not heard anything to suggest that he was in a particularly bad way? Do you have inside information?

Market will tell the story I guess, if he blows the gate then something is up with him, if he is solid then I have no concerns.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

At work searching for a market for TIAG all morning waiting to snap up an opening price, $2.60 comes up TAB go to load up and the website wouldn't work for me on my phone, download the TAB app... the piece of shi.t doesn't even allow you to look beyond tomorrows racing.... By this stage into $2.40 (urge to kill, rising), try website again... nope. Try other books, nope. Finish work, get home, login... $2.20 F U TAB


.... and you too A11dAtP0w3R! prob you that was winding him in

I feel your pain mate, been there done that.

And yes, bigger bet than First Seal a few weeks ago, hopefully a different result.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

What injury are you referring to? I don't recall him being injured at all?

He's got a massive stud deal going for him, there is no way Weir is running him unless ready to win. Im not concerned at all.

 

[Main Man]

Was hoping the bookies might miss Private Secretary Race 1 Randwick given she is out of the midweeks but they haven't.

Lightyly raced mare who has a big winning strike rate, has been conservatively running Group level figures her last few starts in the lower grades, has a big finish on her and I expect her to be very hard to beat on Saturday provided the track plays half even.

 

[iluvparis]

That has to be the shittest Champagne I have ever seen - one horse that ran in the Slipper (and was midfield at 100/1).

My cousins boss part owns Pasadena Girl so I'll probably just back that <--- solid form analysis

 

[iluvparis]

Also TIAG is in the Crownbet money back (as free bet) race at Caulfield this week - although you have to take fixed odds for the promo (currently 2.05)

 

[Main Man]

That has to be the shittest Champagne I have ever seen - one horse that ran in the Slipper (and was midfield at 100/1).

My cousins boss part owns Pasadena Girl so I'll probably just back that <--- solid form analysis

Take Vancouver out and they are an ordinary bunch of 2yo's to be honest, Pride of Dubai's resume reads nicely but at this stage I would think its a case of right time right place for him.

 

[bombers21]

He had some form of leg injury but I have not heard anything to suggest that he was in a particularly bad way? Do you have inside information?

Market will tell the story I guess, if he blows the gate then something is up with him, if he is solid then I have no concerns.

No inside information but going by what Weir said when he was scratched from the Crystal Mile. Said he will be back in a couple of days and wouldn't interrupt his spring. That was 6 months ago. The injury was bone bruising, nothing too serious from my knowledge

 

[PureFooty]

Was going to have this week off after a brutal week last week. But there are a few terrific bets this week.
Chautauqua, Under the Louvre, Trust in A gust, Fontein Ruby, Hi World. Chautauqua the bet of the year for me.

 

[rideclutch]

Was hoping the bookies might miss Private Secretary Race 1 Randwick giving she is out of the midweeks but they haven't.

Lightyly raced mare who has a big winning strike rate, has been conservatively running Group level figures her last few starts in the lower grades, has a big finish on her and I expect her to be very hard to beat on Saturday provided the track plays half even.

Reminds me of Avoid Lightning a bit, humble beginnings and all that.

Decided not to back her one day at Hawkesbury when they weren't making ground, but they rode her ugly and still blitzed them

 

[Main Man]

Reminds me of Avoid Lightning a bit, humble beginnings and all that.

Decided not to back her one day at Hawkesbury when they weren't making ground, but they rode her ugly and still blitzed them

I think she is pretty good, think she is hard to beat on Saturday, I don't like her racing pattern but it hasn't stopped her from building a great winning strike rate albeit at the lower levels, hoping the track is not a 1 lane hwy up the inside on this weekend.

 

[rideclutch]

Only 4 winning chances in the All Aged in my opinion, maybe 4.5, Chautaqua is the one I most likely want to be with but he is yet to produce anything near his peak this time in [...]

How did his TJ run rate compared to his peak?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

That has to be the shittest Champagne I have ever seen - one horse that ran in the Slipper (and was midfield at 100/1).

My cousins boss part owns Pasadena Girl so I'll probably just back that <--- solid form analysis

You have something on when she won first up at 67-1?

 

[Main Man]

How did his TJ run rate compared to his peak?

He is capable of going about 3 lengths better on my ratings, but as I said early pace in his races this time in has not allowed him to run a super fast overall rating.

His closing sections have been elite, but he was running similar elite sections in the Spring off stronger tempos.

I personally think he is going as well as he was in the Spring but until he runs the fast overall rating or at least is given the opportunity to run one with a fast early pace then you are only speculating as to how well he is actually going.

The 3 ratings he has run this Autumn are mid range for G1, there are a lot of horses capable of running to this level, his peak ratings have put him in the elite G1 category, when there is a faster pace the lesser horses drop off whilst he maintains this setting him apart from the rest, not many horses a capable of running the overall ratings he can.

 

[iluvparis]

You have something on when she won first up at 67-1?

Only found this out last week FTL

Also hasn't got this weeks info yet.