Racing April Daily Thread - Racing > Rugbaleeg

[NonPhixion]

I've resorted to betting on chess.
Let's go Liren Ding, whoever you are

 

[balmainforever]

What! Not even live darts.

 

[onebillsdrive]

I've resorted to betting on chess.
Let's go Liren Ding, whoever you are

Wait till he meets Magnus Carlsen (the Winx of chess players)

 

[Chipmunk]

Wait till he meets Magnus Carlsen (the Winx of chess players)

NonPhixion what odds did you get?

 

[Sarcoidevo]

Wait till he meets Magnus Carlsen (the Winx of chess players)

He got beat by a 16 yo Iranian kid the other day

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/...magnus-carlsen-iran-chess-spt-intl/index.html

Though apparently he revenged his defeat yesterday

 

[eastaugh36]

One I like today at Mt Gambier. Race 5 Number 4 Yin And Yang. Expecting it to firm quite a bit through the day.

 

[HeathySure]

Wait till he meets Magnus Carlsen (the Winx of chess players)

not a patch on Deep Blue

 

[WWII]

He got beat by a 16 yo Iranian kid the other day

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/...magnus-carlsen-iran-chess-spt-intl/index.html

Though apparently he revenged his defeat yesterday

Blitz chess doesn't count

 

[Gavin Excell]

Lol - another one the speed fappers blew their load over for zero return

Not even can be said to be a former flimsy golden slipper winner - was a Golden Slipper favourite. Wonder if that's how they'll spruik it.

 

[Chipmunk]

Blitz chess doesn't count

It counts in these times, it’s the only game in town.

 

[iluvparis]

Not even can be said to be a former flimsy golden slipper winner - was a Golden Slipper favourite. Wonder if that's how they'll spruik it.

'Won the Golden Gift in a time faster than Black Caviar'

 

[FallingLiefs]

Not even can be said to be a former flimsy golden slipper winner - was a Golden Slipper favourite. Wonder if that's how they'll spruik it.

It's only partially race performance related, It's hard to explain to pure punters but he is a half to standing stallions Astern/Epaulette. So that makes 3 from the mare. The mare also had a reasonable filly called Alizee and one time board favourite Mogador. So when he burst on the scene and looked GS favourite that would have been G1 winner number 4 from the mare from at the time 6 runners.

Those sort of mares come around very rarely, If he had won a big race we would be talking the mare up as the next Eight Carat.

As for race performance, yes they are relying on ratings and fave for GS tag. Email I got was Daniel O'Sullivan gave them a signed letter to promote saying he was top 5 colts of last 5 years and 2nd best debutant behind Extreme Choice. But this is all about the mare.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Newgate are hoping he's the next Rubick not Colombia.

 

[HeathySure]

Blitz chess doesn't count

Blitz chess is the quarterhorse racing of Chess

 

[X_box_X]

A couple of Box Challenge bets for the day session.

$25 The Meadows Box Challenge - Number 5 to win at $12 w TAB
An eleven race card. No reserves are running, which means the final results will be identical across all corporates. Where Topsport pays on the rug number, TAB and other corporates pay on the Box number (i.e. if 9 or 10 finish in the top three, points will be awarded based on the box they jump from). This same bet is paying $9.25 with Topsport.


My predictions:

Meadows

1 - 11.5
2 - 6
3 - 6
4 - 13.5
5 - 10.5
6 - 6.5
7 - 3
8 - 9

I'm happy to take the $12 on offer for the 5. I have it finishing in third place, three points behind #4, so it's value.

$25 Murray Bridge Box Challenge - Number 1 to win at $3.80 w TAB
A 10 race card with only one reserve running - this is in race seven, but it's a $31 chance so pretty irrelevant I would have thought. Despite that, this reserve will run from Box 1, which counts towards the TAB's final total. Given the same bet is paying $3.16 with Topsport, I think this is value.

My predictions:

Murray

1 - 12.5
2 - 5
3 - 2
4 - 6
5 - 3
6 - 9.5
7 - 11
8 - 11

A race in four, but I have the #1 on top.
Race 1 - $6.50 chance
Race 2 - $2.90 chance
Race 4 - $1.16 chance
Race 5 - $1.95 chance
Race 8 - $2.90 chance

 

[WWII]

I'm looking to tighten up my betting strategies and form analysis over the off-season. What's the best reading material out there, is Don Scott still relevant?

 

[iluvparis]

What's the best reading material out there, is Don Scott still relevant?

Yes

 

[iluvparis]

Bendigo R2 - fave $1.75 second fave $2.25 in a 10 horse field - what a time to be alive

 

[Turnover]

All too royal in the sprint on Saturday?

 

[iluvparis]

All too royal in the sprint on Saturday?

Considered it but looks a typical type of race where TACTICAL ADVANTAGE gets his one win per prep for me.

 

[NonPhixion]

I'm looking to tighten up my betting strategies and form analysis over the off-season. What's the best reading material out there, is Don Scott still relevant?

joe Buchdahl has some good resources

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Dalasan opened in the red
Not touching him at that


Amangiri down in class looks a decent bet

Rule the World fresh at 16’s makes appeal

 

[HeathySure]

I'm looking to tighten up my betting strategies and form analysis over the off-season. What's the best reading material out there, is Don Scott still relevant?

Have always found the punting library on this site to be really good. There is some crap but also some really interesting ideas.

Horse Racing Tips & Betting Systems from Pro Punters | Practical Punting

FREE Horse Racing Tips, Best Bets, Longshots & Betting Tools. Visit us if you like backing winners, betting info - discover the secrets to punting.

practicalpunting.com.au

 

[iluvparis]

Dalasan opened in the red
Not touching him at that


Amangiri down in class looks a decent bet

Rule the World fresh at 16’s makes appeal

Yeah the Amangiri fappers who have blown their banks on her at her last two starts would have to be buttering up again here in a race she can actually win

Dalacat should be in the St Leger

 

[juice t]

He got beat by a 16 yo Iranian kid the other day

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/...magnus-carlsen-iran-chess-spt-intl/index.html

Though apparently he revenged his defeat yesterday

Well

Even Winx lost to Gust Of Wind