You're right in the fact that Carlton dominated the game, but missed set shots is no excuse. St Kilda lost the 2009 GF due to inaccuracy. Kicking accuracy is just as integral as tackles or contested posessions. No one can say they were unlucky to lose because they were down on contested posessions, so I see it as the same for kicking accuracy.
I thought the Saints played pretty well that night, was certainly their best game to the season to that point, and eventually has led to the form they have now (admittedly they were terrible in the last 3 quarters the week after against Hawthorn).
But no, St Kilda are not the 3rd best team in it. Certainly don't think they will beat Hawthorn, and I think Carlton should be able to beat them, and Eagles would beat them in Perth, but obviously at Etihad its a different story.
St Kilda have got their mojo back, the defensive pressure and working together is back to comparable levels to 09/10. However, Riewoldt isn't the same as he was in those years, there is no Hayes, Kosi isn't what he was (50 goals in 09) and they are very reliant on 3 guys (Milne, Schneide and Roo) to kick the vast majority of their goals.
They have discovered some younger players who can play or have improved. Jack Steven is a very good player, Armitage has improved in Hayes absence, McEvoy has had a breakout year and Gwilt had been fantastic until injured.
St Kilda, in their absolute wildest dreams could make a prelim. Most likely they will go out first week, even second week would be a fine achievement.
However, I think we have seen enough from them this year, and their top players are all still young enough, they could load up for a big crack at it in 2012.