Interesting article in the AFR
How Treasurer Jim Chalmers is rated by 10 economists
Leading economists surveyed by The Australian Financial Review were asked to assess the performance of Treasurer Jim Chalmers and rate him out of 10.
www.afr.com
Out of 10, how would you rate Jim Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer so far?
Eslake: 7
Hutley: 6.5. As a teacher might say, good work, but could do better. As is so often the case, politics tends to get in the way of good economic policy. But so far, Chalmers has got more right than wrong and has set the scene to be more bold, should he and the PM choose.
Holden: 7, after adjusting for coming into the job in challenging circumstances.
Winzar: 7. After several years without much policy reform under previous governments, Chalmers has held significant consultation on a range of issues – including through the Jobs and Skills Summit and employment white paper, the women’s economic equality taskforce and the Intergenerational Report. But we haven’t seen a lot of reform yet, other than small changes, such as the taxing of earnings on high-balance superannuation accounts. This year we really need to move from consultation to implementation.
Anthony: 6.5
Blythe: 7.5. It’s difficult to judge a treasurer with only a relatively short period in office. There hasn’t been time to make defining contributions of the likes of Keating (eight years as treasurer) and Costello (11 years). That said, the economic scorecard doesn’t look too bad. GDP growth has remained positive – the feared recession was avoided. The unemployment rate held close to 50-year lows – policymakers had to lower their jobless forecasts as the year went on. Inflation rates remained too high, but the peak has passed. And there was even some (modest) attempts at reform such as an RBA review and changes to superannuation, childcare and taxes on oil and gas. Measures to help ease cost-of-living pressures also helped at the margin.
Downes: 8 or 9. It’s one of the toughest jobs going. It’s impossible to judge without knowing the constraints that he is working with. He obviously works hard and has a good working relationship with Treasury, using its analytical capacity to good effect.
Hamilton: 6. Not exactly a disaster, but with a fair bit of room for improvement. The treasurer came to office with the promise of being the new Keating, but so far seems to be more like the new Swan. Before the election, many who know him well told me he is terrific, but in practice he has disappointed. His essay in The Monthly was a big red flag – it made me doubt whether he is the serious thinker some led me to believe.
McKibbin: I would rate him an 8 so far. Chalmers is one of Australia’s best treasurers. However, if he was involved in the design of the industrial relations changes in the Fair Work Legislation Amendment (Secure Jobs, Better Pay) Act 2022, I would make it 6. This re-regulation of the labour market will further reduce Australia’s low productivity growth.
Miller: 5.5