Good post Mr Mojo Risin. I understand the frustration from opposition fans, football is an emotional game and we all have an interest in it being fair and balanced.
OK, this post ended up a lot longer than I expected... better than posting in 14 different threads though I guess.
Our run at home/and away is generally good, and the usual reasons given are
- The crowd influences the umpires
- The players play for free kicks
However, they are consistant across other teams. It is more pronouced here than other grounds due to the size of the home crowd in relation to the away side. We play at Subiaco particularly well, with 17 wins in a row now. Playing for free kicks is a league wide issue that we have been the main focus of.
The 'West Coast umpiring' issue is a self fulfilling prophecy. We have more attention on us every week in regards to umpiring, which is why the 'errors' in our favour are noted and against us are ignored. The Joseph one is a great example, when the exact same free kick was paid against Kerr twice in the Carlton forward line. The umpiring was not much in our favour relative to pretty much every other game we've played this year, if anything the 17-7 free kicks paid to Carlton after quarter time indicates the opposite. But the hysteria surrounding us and umpiring is so strong every issue is magnified to the extreme.
The thing is that umpiring is a complex issue, and too many people put it down to one particular factor (whether that's home ground, players cheating, umpires biased, conspiracy or whatever) without realising that is a combination of factors that lead to these results. The umpires are not biased, and do not go out to favour one team over another. They umpire the game as they are told to umpire it, but are guilty of the same perceptual errors as the rest of us, the difference is they are trying to adjudicate in one of the toughest sports in the world while trying to ignore external crowd factors, players appealing and issues brought up during the week.
Any particular indicator like free kick stats don't really tell you anything. Last year our free kick differential home (+2.9/game) and away (+1.8/game) was quite close, despite our form being much better at home, and our +18 away goes against the 'home ground bias' theory. Our free kicks in wins (+2.3/game) were worse than in losses (+3.7/game) which goes against the 'best team wins more free kicks' theory. In 2010, when winning the wooden spoon, we won the most free kicks and had the best differential.
These are the factors that indicate why we win a lot of free kicks
- Our strengths are in areas that traditionally win more free kicks- inside mids, dominant ruckmen and power forwards. As a comparison, Hawthorn regularly lose the free kick count, a lot due to battling ruckmen giving away frees, an undisciplined/'unsociable' game style, poor defenders and ill-disciplined forwards like Franklin
- We have players that are adept at winning free kicks- This is undeniable. Luke Shuey, Adam Selwood, Scott Selwood and Ashton Hams are able to twist into poor tackles and win free kicks. Regardless of what you think of the tactic, it is more pronouced against bad teams with poor tackling techniques. Dean Cox is a masterful ruckman and he wins a lot of free kicks due to better positioning against his opponent.
- The umpires are influenced by the home crowd- League wide factor, but amplified at Subiaco because of the size of the crowd
And the factors why we give away relatively few free kicks
- Well drilled side- in every year Worsfold has coached us we have been in the bottom 5 for frees against and had a positive differential
- We don't fall into the same traps as teams against us, which is why we very rarely give away head high free kicks
- I think that we are one of the best sides in adapting to interpretations in rules are knowing where the line is, and a lot of the credit for this has to go to the coaches
- As above, our areas of strength are in the ruck with Cox/Naitanui, a great defence with players like Glass and contested winning mids. Umpires can be influenced by the profile of players, which is why Glass and Cox can sometimes get away with more than other players in their position. Again this is a league wide issue, see Judd and HTB or Riewoldt as a forward
There is no conspiracy, there is no mysterious influence at work, all of these are issues that are quite obvious to people who take more than a DreamTeam look at games and trends. The reasons this is such an issue now and not in 2010 when the same factors were there is mainly because we are winning games. It is also easier for opposition coaches to blame umpiring rather than acknowledge their own teams shortcomings and how they could get better.
If the AFL thinks that it is an issue and want to adress it, they have only a few options
- Tell umpires to ignore the crowd, player influence and profile. I'm sure they already do this, and it's much easier said than done.
- Instruct umpires to not pay free kicks for 'ducking' or intiating contact. They do this already as well, but they can always reinforce it.
- Get umpires to umpire inside a bubble above the ground. The most sensible option.
As Kerry Packer once said to me, "don't get bitter, get better". Clubs should focus on how they can tackle better and play smarter. Fans can say what they like, but for the most part as an Eagles fans it's amusing rather than annoying, because the analysis is so poor and biased, it usually doesn't merit serious responses, which is why I'm posting this here rather thanBay 13 the main board. You'd expect better than what you get from the media, however.
OK, this post ended up a lot longer than I expected... better than posting in 14 different threads though I guess.
Our run at home/and away is generally good, and the usual reasons given are
- The crowd influences the umpires
- The players play for free kicks
However, they are consistant across other teams. It is more pronouced here than other grounds due to the size of the home crowd in relation to the away side. We play at Subiaco particularly well, with 17 wins in a row now. Playing for free kicks is a league wide issue that we have been the main focus of.
The 'West Coast umpiring' issue is a self fulfilling prophecy. We have more attention on us every week in regards to umpiring, which is why the 'errors' in our favour are noted and against us are ignored. The Joseph one is a great example, when the exact same free kick was paid against Kerr twice in the Carlton forward line. The umpiring was not much in our favour relative to pretty much every other game we've played this year, if anything the 17-7 free kicks paid to Carlton after quarter time indicates the opposite. But the hysteria surrounding us and umpiring is so strong every issue is magnified to the extreme.
The thing is that umpiring is a complex issue, and too many people put it down to one particular factor (whether that's home ground, players cheating, umpires biased, conspiracy or whatever) without realising that is a combination of factors that lead to these results. The umpires are not biased, and do not go out to favour one team over another. They umpire the game as they are told to umpire it, but are guilty of the same perceptual errors as the rest of us, the difference is they are trying to adjudicate in one of the toughest sports in the world while trying to ignore external crowd factors, players appealing and issues brought up during the week.
Any particular indicator like free kick stats don't really tell you anything. Last year our free kick differential home (+2.9/game) and away (+1.8/game) was quite close, despite our form being much better at home, and our +18 away goes against the 'home ground bias' theory. Our free kicks in wins (+2.3/game) were worse than in losses (+3.7/game) which goes against the 'best team wins more free kicks' theory. In 2010, when winning the wooden spoon, we won the most free kicks and had the best differential.
These are the factors that indicate why we win a lot of free kicks
- Our strengths are in areas that traditionally win more free kicks- inside mids, dominant ruckmen and power forwards. As a comparison, Hawthorn regularly lose the free kick count, a lot due to battling ruckmen giving away frees, an undisciplined/'unsociable' game style, poor defenders and ill-disciplined forwards like Franklin
- We have players that are adept at winning free kicks- This is undeniable. Luke Shuey, Adam Selwood, Scott Selwood and Ashton Hams are able to twist into poor tackles and win free kicks. Regardless of what you think of the tactic, it is more pronouced against bad teams with poor tackling techniques. Dean Cox is a masterful ruckman and he wins a lot of free kicks due to better positioning against his opponent.
- The umpires are influenced by the home crowd- League wide factor, but amplified at Subiaco because of the size of the crowd
And the factors why we give away relatively few free kicks
- Well drilled side- in every year Worsfold has coached us we have been in the bottom 5 for frees against and had a positive differential
- We don't fall into the same traps as teams against us, which is why we very rarely give away head high free kicks
- I think that we are one of the best sides in adapting to interpretations in rules are knowing where the line is, and a lot of the credit for this has to go to the coaches
- As above, our areas of strength are in the ruck with Cox/Naitanui, a great defence with players like Glass and contested winning mids. Umpires can be influenced by the profile of players, which is why Glass and Cox can sometimes get away with more than other players in their position. Again this is a league wide issue, see Judd and HTB or Riewoldt as a forward
There is no conspiracy, there is no mysterious influence at work, all of these are issues that are quite obvious to people who take more than a DreamTeam look at games and trends. The reasons this is such an issue now and not in 2010 when the same factors were there is mainly because we are winning games. It is also easier for opposition coaches to blame umpiring rather than acknowledge their own teams shortcomings and how they could get better.
If the AFL thinks that it is an issue and want to adress it, they have only a few options
- Tell umpires to ignore the crowd, player influence and profile. I'm sure they already do this, and it's much easier said than done.
- Instruct umpires to not pay free kicks for 'ducking' or intiating contact. They do this already as well, but they can always reinforce it.
- Get umpires to umpire inside a bubble above the ground. The most sensible option.
As Kerry Packer once said to me, "don't get bitter, get better". Clubs should focus on how they can tackle better and play smarter. Fans can say what they like, but for the most part as an Eagles fans it's amusing rather than annoying, because the analysis is so poor and biased, it usually doesn't merit serious responses, which is why I'm posting this here rather than
