All I was suggesting is clubs are more open to trading second rounders to move up one or two slots when they know they'll be getting a specific player through a live trade than they would to just get a pick. That said, list vacancies and academy and F/S stuff can distort the value of picks during trade week as well. Dees traded 14, 27 and 35 for 11 last year but that was because they were only using two picks in the draft. We did similar in 2022, we only used two picks and traded several picks to Brisbane for their Ashcroft points so we could get a better pick to trade for Ollie Henry.
FWIW, I've been reluctantly fine with giving up two firsts all along. I'm also not trying to say our R1 and R2 are exactly equal to Dan Hanneberry's pick 12 valuation either (also not sure why anybody cares about Hanneberry's opinions either but this thread seemed to suddenly get a bit nasty after that was posted, like pick 12 had somehow now became Smith's exact value).
Yeah the known quantity gives teams more certainty but I think likewise teams also hold picks until the draft to see who is available or trade for a premium, rather than trade before. Although I think it’s been pretty consistent in terms of what those picks in that range are valued at trade wise, in or outside of live trading.