Being competitive in DT 2013?

[Keystone agony]

I would have been happy to finish in the top 700, were you higher than that?

Ive seen many people in my time have one good year and never be able to do it again. Last year probably had luck at its highest. I remember some bloke called stromer who finished 2nd or 3rd so i decided to seek him out for some advice, the longer i went on with him the more i realised he had not as much idea as his ranking suggested. That year he went on to rank 40k+.

Ill happily eat my own words when i see a 100% that he finished 700th overall and when he replicates that performance till then.

Happy to say last year i stopped mid way with quite a few trades left over and it wasnt my best year.

 

[tonemeister]

Ive seen many people in my time have one good year and never be able to do it again. Last year probably had luck at its highest. I remember some bloke called stormer who finished 2nd or 3rd so i decided to seek him out for some advice, the longer i went on with him the more i realised he had not as much idea as his ranking suggested. That year he went on to rank 40k+.

I remember Stormer. What about 'The Convicts'. Third one year, winner the next. Quite a few mid pricers paid off for him. Not a single rookie starter.

 

[Keystone agony]

I remember Stormer. What about 'The Convicts'. Third one year, winner the next. Quite a few mid pricers paid off for him. Not a single rookie starter.

Yep Convicts is a gun obviously backed it up year after year. From memory also did very well last year aswell.

That midprice strategy did win it for him in what 2008? that strategy might be 5 years old? although the game has chnaged once again and i feel there will be many ways to skin the cat this year. Midprice could be one of them.

 

[Fitzey]

scoring consistency
potential for score improvement
good value / underpriced

That.

 

[VSTone]

i use a method to assess my team via last years results
i look at each line as a unit ie D1 D2 and DB
D1 is your first three defenders.
D2 is your second three defenders
DB is you defensive bench, spot 7 and 8
and then the same for the mids, fwds and rucks only have one line plus bench

if you look at what the season end results were last year the lines averaged
D1 - 101, D2 - 88, DB - 85
M1 - 120, M2 - 113, MB 104
R1 - 99, RB - 90
F1 - 107, F2 - 97, FB - 96

it allows you to recognize where you may leak the most points and what should be your point of focus in terms of cash allocation to each line.
right now my D2 line is easily my weakest...
but its the weakest for a reason...
all the big scores come from midfielders...if you go rookie heavy in the mids - you could be giving up a lot of early points...you can only plan...but what actually happens is another story!

 

[Krujan]

i use a method to assess my team via last years results
i look at each line as a unit ie D1 D2 and DB
D1 is your first three defenders.
D2 is your second three defenders
DB is you defensive bench, spot 7 and 8
and then the same for the mids, fwds and rucks only have one line plus bench

if you look at what the season end results were last year the lines averaged
D1 - 101, D2 - 88, DB - 85
M1 - 120, M2 - 113, MB 104
R1 - 99, RB - 90
F1 - 107, F2 - 97, FB - 96

it allows you to recognize where you may leak the most points and what should be your point of focus in terms of cash allocation to each line.
right now my D2 line is easily my weakest...
but its the weakest for a reason...
all the big scores come from midfielders...if you go rookie heavy in the mids - you could be giving up a lot of early points...you can only plan...but what actually happens is another story!

Looking at those numbers makes me think that 3-5 Def premo/rookies is the way to go. Just load up in the other positions and hope the Def rooks scores hold up until they can be upgraded.

 

[VSTone]

doesn't necessarily mean it will happen again this year but when you start to look at this pattern year in year out, it does become quite hard to ignore.

 

[tonemeister]

i use a method to assess my team via last years results
i look at each line as a unit ie D1 D2 and DB
D1 is your first three defenders.
D2 is your second three defenders
DB is you defensive bench, spot 7 and 8
and then the same for the mids, fwds and rucks only have one line plus bench

if you look at what the season end results were last year the lines averaged
D1 - 101, D2 - 88, DB - 85
M1 - 120, M2 - 113, MB 104
R1 - 99, RB - 90
F1 - 107, F2 - 97, FB - 96

it allows you to recognize where you may leak the most points and what should be your point of focus in terms of cash allocation to each line.
right now my D2 line is easily my weakest...
but its the weakest for a reason...
all the big scores come from midfielders...if you go rookie heavy in the mids - you could be giving up a lot of early points...you can only plan...but what actually happens is another story!

Superb analysis, I wish I had enough time to go over my team in that much detail.

On DEF structure, what we don't have this year is GC or GWS blooding rookies from the get go, so it's back to having only a few who will actually play consistantly re -2010. But there's quite a few mid price DEF around with potential to breakout and JS. I'm sure you guys already know who they are........due to retirements, trades, and moving up the field.

 

[amazingjoshy]

i use a method to assess my team via last years results
i look at each line as a unit ie D1 D2 and DB
D1 is your first three defenders.
D2 is your second three defenders
DB is you defensive bench, spot 7 and 8
and then the same for the mids, fwds and rucks only have one line plus bench

if you look at what the season end results were last year the lines averaged
D1 - 101, D2 - 88, DB - 85
M1 - 120, M2 - 113, MB 104
R1 - 99, RB - 90
F1 - 107, F2 - 97, FB - 96

it allows you to recognize where you may leak the most points and what should be your point of focus in terms of cash allocation to each line.
right now my D2 line is easily my weakest...
but its the weakest for a reason...
all the big scores come from midfielders...if you go rookie heavy in the mids - you could be giving up a lot of early points...you can only plan...but what actually happens is another story!

great post...agree that those with rookie heavy midfields will be too far off the pace to peg it back this year imo considering there will be others that absolutely load up in there with 6 or more premos

 

[sante]

great post...agree that those with rookie heavy midfields will be too far off the pace to peg it back this year imo considering there will be others that absolutely load up in there with 6 or more premos

No doubt but that money will affect the team in some other way. You just need to figure out where you're best spending your money.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

No doubt but that money will affect the team in some other way. You just need to figure out where you're best spending your money.

i don't understand peoples thinking against this... money is money if you're not spending it in the midfield youre spending it elsewhere

as long as your picks are solid and at least stay the same but hopefully go up in value you'll be getting the points you pay for... they will be spread over the ground but they'll be there

 

[Bluetiger]

I too believe in loading up on premiums in the mids. At the moment my side has 6 ultra premiums and 2 starting rookies in the midfield, with 2 rookies on the bench. Hardest decision will be trying to work out best 2 from viney, crouch, wines, o'meara etc to start on field every week.

I think getting off to a solid start as previous posters said is a huge benefit this year. With the additional trades it will be easier to try and hold onto a good ranking late in the season by sideways trading, as opposed to being swamped by everyone as I'd run out of trades late in seasons gone by.

Another reason going for the 6 premo mids is my lack of faith in the top rated forward and back premos.
Stevie J, Chapman, Pav, Grimes, Waters, Heppell, Shaw & Hartlett don't fill me with the same confidence as Pendles, Watson, Boyd & Cotchin.

Anyway good luck with whatever your strategy is for the season!

 

[Jobe3votes]

Before this year I would have said use your trades wisely. I never used to and thus went from top 900 mid season 2012 and ended up top 42k by September 2012

But now we have 2 trades per week so that doesn't matter anymore

However, selecting your initial squad is the be all end all of AFL Fantasy/Dreamteam now and in the future.

 

[VSTone]

i don't understand peoples thinking against this... money is money if you're not spending it in the midfield youre spending it elsewhere

as long as your picks are solid and at least stay the same but hopefully go up in value you'll be getting the points you pay for... they will be spread over the ground but they'll be there

it all falls back to a statistical probability of one thing over another...the key point is players who play
in the midfield are the ones that provide the most DT points... so what you need to look for is midfielders that
are out of position ie this is why picking a DPP mid/def in the def spot is advantageous...
and if you can nail a rookie that fits this bill then its all the better...

no doubt at some stage there will be a time when you have to roll the dice...if you do it round 1 - the chances are greater you'll have stuffed it up...

 

[Keystone agony]

it all falls back to a statistical probability of one thing over another...the key point is players who play
in the midfield are the ones that provide the most DT points... so what you need to look for is midfielders that
are out of position ie this is why picking a DPP mid/def in the def spot is advantageous...
and if you can nail a rookie that fits this bill then its all the better...

no doubt at some stage there will be a time when you have to roll the dice...if you do it round 1 - the chances are greater you'll have stuffed it up...

I dont understand at all what your getting at VSTone sorry to say it makes little sense.

"In the midfield are the ones that provide the most DT points" Well yes that correct but they also cost the most and the rookies in the midfield on avg also make the most DT points so the less rookies you have there the least amount of points.

Its all about bang for your buck whilst spending as much of the salary cap to start with as possible.

As has already been said by FlowersByIrene "money is money if you're not spending it in the midfield youre spending it elsewhere"

If we were to know that there would be 8 rookie midfielders who all avg over 80 and play 90% of games early on then you probably wouldnt worry about a premium pick in the midfield. Youd use the money elsewhere if it benefited your team.

 

[VSTone]

I dont understand at all what your getting at VSTone sorry to say it makes little sense.
...
Its all about bang for your buck whilst spending as much of the salary cap to start with as possible.
...

it's not for everyone...that i agree with...the logic is sound.
and bang for your buck, yes indeed...spread value is just the method i have used to be competitive in the past and expect it to serve me well again this year, until it fails that is.

in round 4 when value trading becomes really important - how will you assess which of the 100's of trading possibilities will best serve you? no need to answer... and then how will you transition from the starting lineup
to super premo lineup... this year it will likely be a race to that point, and those that get there two to three weeks late will have to begin the gamble as they will be most likely behind, and we know what that leads
to...2014.

getting deep here -
let's consider the 8 starting rookies your m1 line will ave 85...yuck
last year it averaged 120 so you are giving up 35x4 points on this M1 line
a 35 point increase will need a 2 trade upgrade to your midfield Ace.
8 weeks minimum to upgrade... and the opportunity to specifically upgrade is going to be less (midfield only),
consider a spread now where those 35 points you are giving up is now displaced across all lines
at 20 points per player off pace, you still have 8 trades to do to upgrade but each will be a 1 trade upgrade
and the flexibility is built in because of the multi line spread (can choose from all players).
what this does is provide greater opportunity to upgrade, you could be stuck with your midfielders
waiting for a suitable upgrade to come along and each week you wait, you will be giving an advantage to those that can upgrade.

not everyone's cup of tea.. I agree, and that's ok too.

 

[Keystone agony]

getting deep here -
let's consider the 8 starting rookies your m1 line will ave 85...yuck
last year it averaged 120 so you are giving up 35x4 points on this M1 line
a 35 point increase will need a 2 trade upgrade to your midfield Ace.
8 weeks minimum to upgrade... and the opportunity to specifically upgrade is going to be less (midfield only),
consider a spread now where those 35 points you are giving up is now displaced across all lines
at 20 points per player off pace, you still have 8 trades to do to upgrade but each will be a 1 trade upgrade
and the flexibility is built in because of the multi line spread (can choose from all players).
what this does is provide greater opportunity to upgrade, you could be stuck with your midfielders
waiting for a suitable upgrade to come along and each week you wait, you will be giving an advantage to those that can upgrade.

English?

 

[TedDougChris]

let's consider the 8 starting rookies your m1 line will ave 85...yuck
last year it averaged 120 so you are giving up 35x4 points on this M1 line

The last two years have been unprecedented in terms of R1 rookies, due to the introduction of GCS and GWS. I can't see the rookies this year averaging the same amount. I think there are a large number of good rookies, but I'm not convinced there is the spread across all the positions to allow you to average that high.

I think there a number of good midfield rookies, not convinced elsewhere...

 

[VSTone]

it simply boils down to "keep your options open".

 

[Keystone agony]

it simply boils down to "keep your options open".

Dont go out on too much of a limb mate

Your options are naturally gonna be open with having 2 trades per week.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

it's not for everyone...that i agree with...the logic is sound.
and bang for your buck, yes indeed...spread value is just the method i have used to be competitive in the past and expect it to serve me well again this year, until it fails that is.

in round 4 when value trading becomes really important - how will you assess which of the 100's of trading possibilities will best serve you? no need to answer... and then how will you transition from the starting lineup
to super premo lineup... this year it will likely be a race to that point, and those that get there two to three weeks late will have to begin the gamble as they will be most likely behind, and we know what that leads
to...2014.

getting deep here -
let's consider the 8 starting rookies your m1 line will ave 85...yuck
last year it averaged 120 so you are giving up 35x4 points on this M1 line
a 35 point increase will need a 2 trade upgrade to your midfield Ace.
8 weeks minimum to upgrade... and the opportunity to specifically upgrade is going to be less (midfield only),
consider a spread now where those 35 points you are giving up is now displaced across all lines
at 20 points per player off pace, you still have 8 trades to do to upgrade but each will be a 1 trade upgrade
and the flexibility is built in because of the multi line spread (can choose from all players).
what this does is provide greater opportunity to upgrade, you could be stuck with your midfielders
waiting for a suitable upgrade to come along and each week you wait, you will be giving an advantage to those that can upgrade.

not everyone's cup of tea.. I agree, and that's ok too.

if i understand correctly here are a few points...


1. no one is suggesting you run with 8 rookies, most people seem to be running 5 premium and 3 rookies or 5 premium 1 underpricred 2 rookies
Personally Im going more aggressive 4 premium and 4 rookies

say M1 needs to average 120 and M2 needs to average what?? 110??? 105???

by going for the four top mids, imo
Swan Ablett, Murphy(inj effected price), my secret smokey
that M1 line can easily average 120 Im assuming it doesn't include captains double but Im expecting at least 130 swan 125 gaj 120 murph 120 smokey

not only am i averaging above 120 here which will mean my M2 line can average slightly less - lets say my 4 rookies average 80 odd - would be very good id be ecstatic hopefully it will happen,

but realistically to stay in contention with other teams all my four need to average are the same as 1/1/2 line ups others have
so the 5th premium is usually a mundy type so that's like 110 max a ball type 90 and two rookies - usually the best two which will hurt me but there are more than 2 good rookies...
lets say everyone has jaeger and viney as their two m7/8.. they get cacelled out. so we're left with my two rookies vs a premium and an underpricer.. now they can't comete in a probable world, even though who knows they may, but as the money is spread out over the ground not only do my big 4s higher average help my two rookies out, but here comes the spread


my F3 line of 1/2/0 - 1 premium two underpricers and no rookies will likely be going up against a

1/0/2 or a 0/2/1 or a 0/3/0 line up

I've got more money on this line meaning ill be averaging more than their's which means that bonus can also help out my two rookies to compete with that m2 line


basically as long as you haven't got a ton of money on the bench, you have a super premo for ultimate captain output, and all of your players score their averages or higher... you'll get the same points as everyone else until peoples start earning money and have more than the salary cap

 

[VSTone]

yeah i think you get "the Vibe" ... FBI

I don't know where the value is, all the strategy does is allow me to move quickly to where the value is by keeping most options open while trying to stay close to the leaders.
some will nail it, most wont - so I assume that I will part of the wont group.
in the end it's just one way of looking at the DT puzzle, it's really about spawning some useful conversation
between my fellow DTers.

I've been sucked into DT for a couple of years now and have steadily improved my ranking each year and
again my aim is to better last years result. G/L to all.

 

[SM]

Hmm the more I read this the more convinced I am to ditch a FWD and pick up another Ultra-Premo.. so ditched Rockliff for Daniher to upgrade Ball to Swan.

 

[Keystone agony]

To stay in close contention you will need to pick value IMO and get the right rookies.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

midfielders score more herp de derp