Being competitive in DT 2013?

[VSTone]

Hi SM,
your example -
Rockliff, Ball or Swan, Daniher

my estimates of what they might do this year using the method outlined

using player, position, potential ave, agst position/best line ave 2012 = maths = result (higher the better)
Ball M2 - ave 85 agst M2/113* = 85 - 113 = -23
Rockliff F1 - ave 110 agst F1/107* = 110 -107 = +3

Swan M1 - ave 133 agst M1/120* = 133-120 = +13
Daniher F2 - ave 45 agst F2/97* = 45-97 = -52

so my rating gives Ball + Rockliff = -20 off the pace ranking
vs Swan + Dainher = -39 off the pace ranking

so for me i think Ball and Rockliff is the better option...
but like anything its all just pure speculation on what may happen...
Danihers job security is questionable, and Captain fantastic (Swan) is hard to ignore what ever you do.
it is just one layer of the onion, which has many layers...

my suggestion is develop a set of check boxes that a player must pass in order to claim a spot in your team.
do the same for your captain and benches as these check lists might be different.

 

[Keystone agony]

Hi SM,
your example -
Rockliff, Ball or Swan, Daniher

my estimates of what they might do this year using the method outlined

using player, position, potential ave, agst position/best line ave 2012 = maths = result (higher the better)
Ball M2 - ave 85 agst M2/113* = 85 - 113 = -23
Rockliff F1 - ave 110 agst F1/107* = 110 -107 = +3

Swan M1 - ave 133 agst M1/120* = 133-120 = +13
Daniher F2 - ave 45 agst F2/97* = 45-97 = -52

so my rating gives Ball + Rockliff = -20 off the pace ranking
vs Swan + Dainher = -39 off the pace ranking

so for me i think Ball and Rockliff is the better option...
but like anything its all just pure speculation on what may happen...
Danihers job security is questionable, and Captain fantastic (Swan) is hard to ignore what ever you do.
it is just one layer of the onion, which has many layers...

my suggestion is develop a set of check boxes that a player must pass in order to claim a spot in your team.
do the same for your captain and benches as these check lists might be different.

I dont understand what all this M1, F2 shizzle is about?

 

[Bluetiger]

Hi SM,
your example -
Rockliff, Ball or Swan, Daniher

my estimates of what they might do this year using the method outlined

using player, position, potential ave, agst position/best line ave 2012 = maths = result (higher the better)
Ball M2 - ave 85 agst M2/113* = 85 - 113 = -23
Rockliff F1 - ave 110 agst F1/107* = 110 -107 = +3

Swan M1 - ave 133 agst M1/120* = 133-120 = +13
Daniher F2 - ave 45 agst F2/97* = 45-97 = -52

so my rating gives Ball + Rockliff = -20 off the pace ranking
vs Swan + Dainher = -39 off the pace ranking
.

you lost me on the M2 averaging 113? whos doing that? seems unfair to compare Ball at a guesstimated average of 85 vs 113
Also can you just explain the whole M1 / M2 / F1 / F2 concept.

Cheers

 

[Keystone agony]

Im not maths genius but my calculator brain doesnt have

85 -113 equalling -23 either

 

[SM]

If Daniher is sitting on my bench though he's hardly a needed score output, whereas Swan would be on the field racking it up.

 

[VSTone]

If Daniher is sitting on my bench though he's hardly a needed score output, whereas Swan would be on the field racking it up.

then that third player should be factored in too... and KA my maths up there was pretty poor -
no wonder i missed Zorko last year!

 

[VSTone]

you lost me on the M2 averaging 113? whos doing that? seems unfair to compare Ball at a guesstimated average of 85 vs 113
Also can you just explain the whole M1 / M2 / F1 / F2 concept.

Cheers

post 30 of this thread

 

[SM]

then that third player should be factored in too... and KA my maths up there was pretty poor -
no wonder i missed Zorko last year!

Macaffer.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Hi SM,
your example -
Rockliff, Ball or Swan, Daniher

my estimates of what they might do this year using the method outlined

using player, position, potential ave, agst position/best line ave 2012 = maths = result (higher the better)
Ball M2 - ave 85 agst M2/113* = 85 - 113 = -23
Rockliff F1 - ave 110 agst F1/107* = 110 -107 = +3

Swan M1 - ave 133 agst M1/120* = 133-120 = +13
Daniher F2 - ave 45 agst F2/97* = 45-97 = -52

so my rating gives Ball + Rockliff = -20 off the pace ranking
vs Swan + Dainher = -39 off the pace ranking

so for me i think Ball and Rockliff is the better option...
but like anything its all just pure speculation on what may happen...
Danihers job security is questionable, and Captain fantastic (Swan) is hard to ignore what ever you do.
it is just one layer of the onion, which has many layers...

my suggestion is develop a set of check boxes that a player must pass in order to claim a spot in your team.
do the same for your captain and benches as these check lists might be different.

yeah but danniher is a horrible pick

change it to a
Staker or J.Simpson etc and it might be a bit better


solid analysis i just think the danniher inclusion is fundamentally flawed


and is F2 seriously averaging 97??
and that is at the end of the year you can't average that much at raw start...

 

[VSTone]

4,5,6 in the forwards last year averaged approx 97 at season end...
so it would be reasonable to assume that it will be something similar this year

 

[Jobe3votes]

With 44 trades this year then all we really need to worry about is getting our original lineup as spot on as humanly possible.

There are 2 main tactics this season. (1) Sideways trade premos depending who they play and their dreamteam average. Or after every 3 games rookies/cheapies play, downgrade the best 1 to a new rookie on the bubble, and then upgrade a medium pricer to a premo.

Just interesting which tactic people will generally go for.

 

[mezaire]

With 44 trades this year then all we really need to worry about is getting our original lineup as spot on as humanly possible.

There are 2 main tactics this season. (1) Sideways trade premos depending who they play and their dreamteam average. Or after every 3 games rookies/cheapies play, downgrade the best 1 to a new rookie on the bubble, and then upgrade a medium pricer to a premo.

Just interesting which tactic people will generally go for.

This is the bit of the new trading system I like!

Let's play hyperthericals;
You have a rookie who was priced at $108k and has scored an avg. of 70 for the first 5 rounds and you are playing him as a M8. Pendles had a knock in the 2nd round and was subbed and therefore has dropped $80k.

Do you
A: Take the cash (about $80k) on the rookie, trade him to another $108k rookie with no price rise as yet and then trade a midpricer to Pendles.
or
B: Keep ther rookie for a few more weeks as he will rise another $100k odd.

Obviously more things could be at play but points per dollar will be far more inportant this year.

 

[Keystone agony]

This is the bit of the new trading system I like!

Let's play hyperthericals;
You have a rookie who was priced at $108k and has scored an avg. of 70 for the first 5 rounds and you are playing him as a M8. Pendles had a knock in the 2nd round and was subbed and therefore has dropped $80k.

Do you
A: Take the cash (about $80k) on the rookie, trade him to another $108k rookie with no price rise as yet and then trade a midpricer to Pendles.
or
B: Keep ther rookie for a few more weeks as he will rise another $100k odd.

Obviously more things could be at play but points per dollar will be far more inportant this year.

C

 

[yogibbear]

It's so obvious what you do...

INSTANTLY sideways/downgrade to bubble/sideways to bubble premo any premo that has a bad game (protect your $$$)
Instantly downgrade any rookie that has a sub affected game.
Aim is to get the absolute best team BEFORE anyone else. So you want maximum dollars like usual. i.e. game is even more like trading shares than it has been before. Buy when the news is good, sell when 1 bad game (before it impacts their value) [And you can easily bring them back in when their B/E is -ve again if they are a pendles type).

The trick is if you have insider knowledge (insider trading) you could pre-empt a sub affected game / injury / bad game and trade them out before the initial $$$ loss if their B/E is already questionable... so just run FF genie each week, sort by B/E and the two with the least probability of overcoming their B/E MUST BE TRADED under ALL circumstances unless there are pressing reasons to trade other players (injuries/byes)

 

[FlowersByIrene]

It's so obvious what you do...

INSTANTLY sideways/downgrade to bubble/sideways to bubble premo any premo that has a bad game (protect your $$$)
Instantly downgrade any rookie that has a sub affected game.
Aim is to get the absolute best team BEFORE anyone else. So you want maximum dollars like usual. i.e. game is even more like trading shares than it has been before. Buy when the news is good, sell when 1 bad game (before it impacts their value) [And you can easily bring them back in when their B/E is -ve again if they are a pendles type).

The trick is if you have insider knowledge (insider trading) you could pre-empt a sub affected game / injury / bad game and trade them out before the initial $$$ loss if their B/E is already questionable... so just run FF genie each week, sort by B/E and the two with the least probability of overcoming their B/E MUST BE TRADED under ALL circumstances unless there are pressing reasons to trade other players (injuries/byes)

sssssssh

 

[sante]

It's so obvious what you do...

INSTANTLY sideways/downgrade to bubble/sideways to bubble premo any premo that has a bad game (protect your $$$)
Instantly downgrade any rookie that has a sub affected game.
Aim is to get the absolute best team BEFORE anyone else. So you want maximum dollars like usual. i.e. game is even more like trading shares than it has been before. Buy when the news is good, sell when 1 bad game (before it impacts their value) [And you can easily bring them back in when their B/E is -ve again if they are a pendles type).

The trick is if you have insider knowledge (insider trading) you could pre-empt a sub affected game / injury / bad game and trade them out before the initial $$$ loss if their B/E is already questionable... so just run FF genie each week, sort by B/E and the two with the least probability of overcoming their B/E MUST BE TRADED under ALL circumstances unless there are pressing reasons to trade other players (injuries/byes)

All well and good if you don't have injuries/suspensions/dropped from actual AFL team etc

 

[Keystone agony]

I find that post slightly hypicritical. you say get the best team before everyone else and than you say trade pendles to someone on a bubble. as good as it sounds your still gonna nees to get 22 quality pkayers as quick as possible. with that trading you might go around in circles and never actually get 22 good players. you wont be sideways tradium premiums from rounds 6-12.

 

[54Dogs]

I find that post slightly hypicritical. you say get the best team before everyone else and than you say trade pendles to someone on a bubble. as good as it sounds your still gonna nees to get 22 quality pkayers as quick as possible. with that trading you might go around in circles and never actually get 22 good players. you wont be sideways tradium premiums from rounds 6-12.

Depends.

Pendles gets injured, has a 14 rolling through. ST bangs out 153 and has 2 easy games.

Trading Pendles > ST can make u more over the next 2 weeks than other options, use the coin to facilitate other upgrades. Then trade ST back to Pendles with 100K swing

 

[Keystone agony]

Depends.

Pendles gets injured, has a 14 rolling through. ST bangs out 153 and has 2 easy games.

Trading Pendles > ST can make u more over the next 2 weeks than other options, use the coin to facilitate other upgrades. Then trade ST back to Pendles with 100K swing

But u wouldbt have gained any more premiums. withtgw rookie downgrade upgrade youll be gaining the extra premium and points

 

[sante]

But u wouldbt have gained any more premiums. withtgw rookie downgrade upgrade youll be gaining the extra premium and points

Early on it doesn't matter. 2 trades a week means you dont need to hold your premiums if they are injured or in a form slump. Initial squad is crucial.

 

[Keystone agony]

Early on it doesn't matter. 2 trades a week means you dont need to hold your premiums if they are injured or in a form slump. Initial squad is crucial.

I agree first 5-6 rounds it wont matter but by then you have 32 trades left and wouldnt have increased the amount of premiums. after that the focus will be points before that you have done the hardwork with getting a surplus of money

 

[Jobe3votes]

I find that post slightly hypicritical. you say get the best team before everyone else and than you say trade pendles to someone on a bubble. as good as it sounds your still gonna nees to get 22 quality pkayers as quick as possible. with that trading you might go around in circles and never actually get 22 good players. you wont be sideways tradium premiums from rounds 6-12.

therefore you check who the premo midfielder plays the next week, his average against them. the midfielder you havent got that has the higher average against their next opponent, you bring him in fo the player in your current midfielders that averages the lowest against their next opponent.

Of course, this all depends on their current price & how much you have left in the bank. Work it that way.

Also, if Joe Daniher for whatever reason guns it and goes up in value after his first 3 matches from $143,200 to an amazing $313,200 (unlikely I know) then you have made $170k on Daniher. Trade Daniher at $313,200 to a player that looks like having his current price RISE after his next game (he's played 2 blinders already) (trade him in before that 3rd game). Then with the money you make, upgrade a Luke Ball to a Joel Selwood of sorts.

Hope I have explained it well enough.

If you follow this trade tactic, come dreamteam finals time, you may very well have a high majority of your starting players as premos.

 

[Jobe3votes]

I agree first 5-6 rounds it wont matter but by then you have 32 trades left and wouldnt have increased the amount of premiums. after that the focus will be points before that you have done the hardwork with getting a surplus of money

If you use the tactic I explained on this page, you wont be doing any upgrading to premos until atleast AFTER round 3 anyway. Price rises don't occur until a player has played 3 games.

Trades AFTER round 1 will only ever be used if you didn't pick a well performing premo in your starting lineup, or a gun playing rookie/cheapie.

Your 2 trades after round 2 could very well be used to trade IN those players that MAY have a very high price increase after their 3rd match. So in saying that, AFTER round 2 onwards is when you may trade in & out to successfully catch those players getting a decent price jump the game before their 3rd game.

 

[sante]

DreamTeam has always been about that Jobe?

 

[Keystone agony]

Gee jobe ive only played this game for 10 years and i have never once come across this such mastery approach. please keep this amazing info to myself only via pm in the future. it will only mean either u or me can possibly win the game and ill split the winning prize with you if youll do the same. cant wait for 2013 with that un heard of brillance im gonna win just becoz of u now jobe. thanks