Mega Thread Best 22/2013 Predictions and all that

[Bronze]

From what Mick has said, and based on his past philosophies, my predictions would include:
- Watson and Warnock to feature heavily.
- Henderson to go back forward for most of the season.
- Lucas to play most games.
- Quite a few younger players floating in and out of the team. Mick's never been afraid to throw youngsters in the deep end. This probably means a debut for Menzel early on.
- I wouldn't be surprised either if he see's a specialist role for AJ in the back pocket, and backs him in the first part of the season to do the job. In fact, something in me would leave me suprised if AJ wasn't in the team Round 1.

God help us!

 

[HereComesJuddy]

God help us!

God help Richmond come Round 1 - Actually, if there is a god, you stay away from Richmond

 

[Jeremias]

Oh really? Ya think? Last time we played them on their home ground in the mud - their conditions we beat them - with less of a team than we have now...as I said , forget 2012 - I think our VFL squads acquitted themselves quite well - 2013 Carlton won't be fielding any VFL squad.

The sides I AM worried about are Hawthorn, Collingwood, Geelong Essendon and Freemantle.

Yes, really.

Carlton played horrible football for a large chunk of the season, and missed the finals. Sydney were brilliant in 2012 and won the premiership. Yeah, we had injuries - but they were and are at the moment a fair way ahead of us - as are a number of other clubs.

What happened in 2011 is no longer relevant, and it's absurd to bring up a result from that year to compare one team to another. They are a significantly better team than they were back then.

Wake up to yourself. We all have high hopes for Carlton in 2013 with good reason, but to say that Sydney have no hope of beating us isn't being realistic - in fact it's being the complete opposite.

 

[JustaBattler]

Yes, really.

Carlton played horrible football for a large chunk of the season, and missed the finals. Sydney were brilliant in 2012 and won the premiership. Yeah, we had injuries - but they were and are at the moment a fair way ahead of us - as are a number of other clubs.

What happened in 2011 is no longer relevant, and it's absurd to bring up a result from that year to compare one team to another. They are a significantly better team than they were back then.

Wake up to yourself. We all have high hopes for Carlton in 2013 with good reason, but to say that Sydney have no hope of beating us isn't being realistic - in fact it's being the complete opposite.

Sydney are a good team however, who do you rate better than our players in a position by position comparison? Why do you think on a player by player basis that Sydnbey is so far away better than Calrton?

What about Norfs and Saints - are they TOO far and away better than Carlton? Same for Adelaide?

So our list can't match up with these teams? Is that what you are saying?

I think you are the one that is unrealistic actually - maybe you should "wake up to yourself" - you seem to be stuck in some kind of nightmare vision about where Carlton really stands as a Club, I really think you don't understand just how horrendous last years injury list was and just how impossible to it was for Carlton - and still we nearly made the 8.

I will be reminding you of just how ' far back Carlton is' - every time we post a win in 2013.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I think that the team we now have can beat anyone on our day.

However come 2013... We really haven't added anything to our list other than draft picks and years experience, While we ended up losing guys that possibly could get games at other clubs. These draft picks may take a few years to come on.

Injuries are what killed our chances in 2012 and having a poor showing over our pre season due to ops didn't help either.

I am not going to say that we will beat all the teams that have been already mentioned in this page, but I think the competition is so damn close, even on their day, a poor team can beat a better team on paper. Whether it be for mental reasons, coaching reasons or the other million reasons. It can happen and will happen. ie; Port Adelaide and Gold Coast.

If all goes well and we stay somewhat injury free, we will fare well in 2013. Both Hawthorn and Sydney benefited from great pre seasons, a good coach and not too many injuries. It is rare that a team wins a premiership that struggles to field a good 22. Sending injured players out there because we have no one left isn't great team management, but you do have to field a team and cant just forfit (which is what we should have done in a few games this year).

Every team at this time of year believes that they are better than they were last year. Reality is, some won't be. I actually think we were damn good last year (with all that was before us) and if we can improve even just 5% and keep the list healthy, we should go alright.

If need to get 3-10 games into Bootsma, Mitchell, McCarthy, O'Keeffe, Buckley, Menzel, Temay and Graham.
And if we can get 8-15+ games into Watson, Casboult, Bell and Lucas, 2013 and beyond is shaping up nicely for us.

 

[Jeremias]

Sydney are a good team however, who do you rate better than our players in a position by position comparison? Why do you think on a player by player basis that Sydnbey is so far away better than Calrton?

What about Norfs and Saints - are they TOO far and away better than Carlton? Same for Adelaide?

So our list can't match up with these teams? Is that what you are saying?

I think you are the one that is unrealistic actually - maybe you should "wake up to yourself" - you seem to be stuck in some kind of nightmare vision about where Carlton really stands as a Club, I really think you don't understand just how horrendous last years injury list was and just how impossible to it was for Carlton - and still we nearly made the 8.

I will be reminding you of just how ' far back Carlton is' - every time we post a win in 2013.

You really don't get it, do you?

It's not about what we put down on paper. We may well stack up very favourable in a player by player comparison against Sydney (not that I think we necessarily do as I haven't looked into it closely), but it's not about how well we stack up against them in a position by position comparison on paper. When it comes down to it, all that becomes completely and utterly irrelevants. What matters is how the players present themselves and perform as a unit during games. And in that regard, Sydney left us for dead in 2012 and we're well and truly behind them heading into 2013.

I bet you had Hawthorn beating Sydney in the GF because on paper they had the better side too.

I made no comment in my previous post on North, St Kilda or Adelaide - but I will now. All three sides were better than us last season, but I'm confident we can overtake 2, and possibly all 3. I believe North will slide because they don't have it as easy in 2013 as they did this year in terms of their fixture. I'm also not convinced by their fire-power up front over the course of an entire season, and if Goldstein goes down they don't have much in reserve by way of ruckmen. St Kilda are trying to tread water by bringing in a whole heap of new faces. They'll do enough to not bottom out but not enough to get right back up there, in the short term at least. The loss of Goddard will hurt them in the short term as well. Adelaide were outstanding last season and rocketed ahead of us and many other clubs. I think they'll be affected by the whole saga going on this off-season, and by losing Tippett the footballer, but how much that will impact them is intangible and remains to be seen. I don't think it's a given that we'll pass them or beat them in 2013.

And that opinion wasn't formed because of how we match up against those sides in a meaningless position by position comparison on paper.

I'm being very realistic. I understand just how much we were impacted by injuries, if you've read any of my posts you'll see exactly that - so cut the condescending crap. I also understand that injuries weren't the only reason why we had as poor a year as we did in 2012. It may be the main reason, but it most certainly isn't the only one. As an example, I saw instances throughout the year of disgusting complacency and selfishness that I never want to see again. Those sort of things don't come about as a result of, and can't be blamed on injury.

In terms of next year I have a very positive outlook. I certainly believe we can and will make the finals, unless we are once again decimated by injuries as we were in 2012, which hopefully does not happen. We have a very talented bunch, in fact I truly believe we are up there in terms of talent in the league, but as yet they haven't shown that they can perform as a unit to anywhere near the same effect as some of the best sides in the competition, including as Sydney did in 2012. Hopefully that changes under Mick in 2013 but it's not a certainty as some seem to be suggesting as a lot comes down to the players rather than those sitting in the box.

 

[Bluejob]

First time in years - I look at the Carlton list and see multiple options for how to structure the side.

Jamison Watson Laidler
Yarran Henderson Scotland
Gibbs Judd Simpson
Walker Waite Garlett
Betts Casboult Hampson
Kreuzer Murphy Carrazzo

IC: McLean Armfield Robinson S: Bell

No way a St Kilda, Adelaide, Sydney or Norfs beat this team.

To be honest, its reasons like this Carlton started losing games in 2012. Players (and fans) got ahead of ourselves. The 'April' premiers tag was well deserved. Got caught up in the hype.

Make no mistake, we have a formidable side on paper but we had that against Port adelaide in round 10.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Match up for match up. I seem to remember a certain bf poster saying that No way Essendon would beat us. We had them in every position on the ground and no one on that team would fit into our squad. Or was it Watson that might get a game with us???
In the end, we lost...

 

[slashin_velvet]

Running a few idea's i'd like to see tried out. (Bolded for emphasis)

B Scotland Jamison Laidler
HB Rowe Hampson Touhy
C Yarran Judd Gibbs
HF Simpson Waite Walker
FF Casboult Henderson Betts
R Kreuzer Carrazzo Murphy
I/C McLean Menzel Robinson (Armfield)

1) Bring in Rowe in the backline as a 3rd Tall foil for when laidler is playing the sweeping role, and push him up forward when one of the talls is having a break.
2) Throw Hammer in defense. His kicking and marking have been questionable....but he's tall, and can ruck well. I'd love to see him come up against a premier forward such as cloke, and get big punches up the ground. (also be a rotation through the ruck, with Hendo switching back)
3) Yarran on the wing as a link up player, not just someone running out of defense. Want an attacking side, with players that go both ways
4) Gibbs in the middle (not the most radical suggestion)
5) Henderson back up to the forward post. He's last few years in defence seem to have given him confidence, and he's learnt how some of the best talls in the league play. If he's taken the right notes from them, he could be damaging up forward.
6) Give Menzel a run early on if his knee's are up to it.

A ruck idea (zoned ruckman) - Casboult does all the ruckwork in the forward half. Hammer does all the ruckwork in defense. Kruezer takes the rest around the ground working as a midfielder.

 

[Azul]

A ruck idea (zoned ruckman) - Casboult does all the ruckwork in the forward half. Hammer does all the ruckwork in defense. Kruezer takes the rest around the ground working as a midfielder.

Playing Kouta, Setanta and Waite in defense made them better players in their preferred positions, definitely in terms of defensive pressure.

If Kreuzer/Warnock spend 85% of the match on the ball, can Hampson coexist alongside specialist mega-forwards in Rowe, Casboult and Mitchell? Or does Malthouse omit second ruck, reverting to the Leigh Brown/Dawes scenario of playing a big bodied behemoth to crash and bash?

I think there's scope for some sort of experimentation; none of our rucks have particular nous for falling back with the flight of the ball in defense to block the path of an opposition forward - an awareness that can be taught by reading the flight of the ball from half back.

 

[JustaBattler]

To be honest, its reasons like this Carlton started losing games in 2012. Players (and fans) got ahead of ourselves. The 'April' premiers tag was well deserved. Got caught up in the hype.

Make no mistake, we have a formidable side on paper but we had that against Port adelaide in round 10.

Actually we got caught up in the Clubs worst injury run - ever and the shyte compounded on compounding shyte from there. No club can have pretty much ALL its talls out for 2/3rds of the year and hope to compete. We also copped 5 - 6 day turnaround games in row...making recovery harder..

Unpalatable as it may sound - injuries made the Coach and the team's job impossible.

However I agree that it is best for no Coach to make sully boy proclamations about 'top 4 or bust' it is disrespectful to the opposition and subject to revision - if you have a bad run of injuries etc..

 

[The Grover]

Let's have a go at something that looks different:

Jamison Watson Walker
Yarran Henderson Laidler
Simpson Judd Scotland
Kruezer Murphy Gibbs
Menzel Waite Carrazzo
Betts Casboult Hampson
Int: Garlett McLean Robinson (Lucas)

This requires several things:
1. Gibbs to become a prolific onballer.
2. Watson to step up as a fullback, if not ready Duigan will play as the third tall; Paddy also an option.
3. Walker to be willing to play on small forwards and sometimes swing, if not Temay or someone comes in for Menzel.
4. Menzel, Laidler and Lucas to throw off injuries and be ready to go.
5. Hampson will spend more time in the ruck than your typical third forward, and Kruezer will not be a ruck/forward, but instead a ruck/midfielder. Malthouse is creative enough to create a new role for him.
6. Casboult will probably rotate with Rowe and Mitchell depending on who is better at the time.
7. Henderson can switch forward if required, breaking opposition defenses.

I have exactly same team except:
In: Bell ( another inside mid a must ), Armfield.
out: Garlett, Lucas

I'm on the same page with Walker, showed in his 1 match in defence on Milne he can play that role far better than anyone else at Carlton. Joseph, Tuohy had there chances, I'm not writing them off BUT walker way ahead.

I don't want Betts, Garlett combo up forward anymore. Menzel has more strings to his bow, gives us more overhead marking & conversion.

 

[Blue Dangerfield]

Sydney are a good team however, who do you rate better than our players in a position by position comparison? Why do you think on a player by player basis that Sydnbey is so far away better than Calrton?

What about Norfs and Saints - are they TOO far and away better than Carlton? Same for Adelaide?

So our list can't match up with these teams? Is that what you are saying?

I think you are the one that is unrealistic actually - maybe you should "wake up to yourself" - you seem to be stuck in some kind of nightmare vision about where Carlton really stands as a Club, I really think you don't understand just how horrendous last years injury list was and just how impossible to it was for Carlton - and still we nearly made the 8.

I will be reminding you of just how ' far back Carlton is' - every time we post a win in 2013.

The key to Sydney's success right here. As a team they play better football than any other team in the comp.

 

[Stamos]

The key to Sydney's success right here. As a team they play better football than any other team in the comp.

I think the fact that their entire back 6 missed about 7 games for the year had a lot to do with this.

 

[gbatman]

We are a fair way from the top teams in the competition, at this stage it's all based on potential and what we/players might be able to do. This is how I see it.

To be competative at the top, we need a full back and a full forward for a start. Jamison is a good full back but his body is unreliable. I think a lot of his shoulder problems might occur from him taking on the biggest and strongest forwards every week, just like how we saw Laidler's knee pop wresteling one out with a ruckman much bigger and stronger than him.

I think we need to faze Jamison out of the full back position so that we aren't relying on an injury prone player and setting ourselves up to fail. This and to protect his body so we can get more out of him. The guy is quite capable of playing on smaller opposition and is a good attacking player, something we have never really tapped into.

Watson is ready to go and has a strong durable body and should be playing full back. He will benefit from playing along side some good leaders. I think he will become a good full back and if he does it frees up the rest of our defenders to do even more damage and make things even harder for their opponants. He will be an even better player in 2013.

Same thing goes with Waite. Injury prone player, needs a few other big targets to take the attention off him and so we aren't relying on him too much. Apart from Waite, Casboult is the best mark at the club and is the only guy who has the size, strength and knowlege on how to use his body so him playing is an absolute given.

Henderson will not play forward, he's not strong enough, heavy enough and his hands aren't good enough under physical pressure to be better at this role than Casboult and Waite. His best position is clearly CHB. He could be an ok forward but he could well be recognised as a top line CHB. Would much rather see him beating top line CHFs, running off half back and using his defensive smarts than battling away and achieving moderate results up forward. It would weaken our defence to play him up forward as he's clearly our second best defender, at this stage.

Our onball structure needs to change a bit I think. I bit more strength and out positioning in our favor is on the cards. Last year we were beat up physically and literally pushed around in there. Judd's lack of strength from his injury badly hurt his game. A failure to achieve forward momentum and win the footy on the attacking side of clearances hurt us. Letting the opposition out too easily hurt us as well. I wonder if we could be using guys like Bell and McLean better to win the footy on the forward side of the ruck contests. Stopping the opposition moving the footy out from stoppages is a focus, I think our periferal players were to close to the play and easily drawn in last year. Particularly our game against Sydney, how easily they found space with just a few handballs away from stoppages was concerning. I would really like us to focus more on momentum of the footy at stoppages and busting it forward throug the congestion. Perhaps our more class players like Judd, Carrazzo and Murphy spending more time outside the center square and our bigger stronger ball winners like Mclean, Bell and possibly one other spending more time in close. I think perhaps we relied too heavily on Carrazzo, Judd and Murphy and we pushed them too hard and it left them exhausted by the end of games/the season.

So what I am saying is, for us to be a serious threat, a young player has to step up at full back and up forward and we need to find some more size, strength and physicality in the midfield. If we don't achieve this, not a lot will change from how we have been going. As much as a new game style is going to help, we still need the right ingredients.

 

[Sin City]

Play Menzel from round one. He's already used to playing against men in the SANFL so he'll get nothing from playing VFL, get the bloke with the elite talent up to AFL speed as quick as possible.

 

[Sin City]

Laidler Watson Jamison
Yarran Henderson Bootsma
Simpson Murphy Gibbs
Menzel Waite Garlett
Betts Casboult Walker
Kreuzer Judd Carrazzo
Robinson McLean Bell Scotland/Curnow/Tuohy/Lucas/Graham

Henderson can move forward when Casboult goes into the ruck and the back line still won't be short.

 

[Azul]

Henderson will not play forward, he's not strong enough, heavy enough and his hands aren't good enough under physical pressure to be better at this role than Casboult and Waite.

He has found a niche in the backline but I think you're underselling him. What Henderson provided was the ability to roam upfield and provide a target on a lead to backmen streaming out of defense. Something Waite might have done a few seasons ago before injuries, age and wear and tear took their toll.

Our game often breaks down between the arcs. After clearing the ball from the half back line, with few tall marking targets presenting 65m from goal, clever oppositions seize on turnovers and pump the ball straight back to our fatigued defensive 50.

 

[Azzurro]

Laidler Watson Jamison
Yarran Henderson Bootsma
Simpson Murphy Gibbs
Menzel Waite Garlett
Betts Casboult Walker
Kreuzer Judd Carrazzo
Robinson McLean Bell Scotland/Curnow/Tuohy/Lucas/Graham

Henderson can move forward when Casboult goes into the ruck and the back line still won't be short.

I think the days of our FF being the 2nd ruckman are probably numbered Sin, as impressive as that team looks it's just not the Malthouse way. But who knows - perhaps his plans have changed!

Love the Boots inclusion. I've been too scared to include him in my attempts because he's still a work in progress, but he certainly covers small or medium forwards and can pinch hit on talls as required. Definitely a gun in the making - and he frees Walker from having to play defensively, as IMO he's the next best option (as others have noted by including him in the back pocket, a la Milne v Walker last year).

Here's hoping Jeffy makes the cut. Such a gun, but has his work cut out to hold his spot now with Menzelenko around. That said, I firmly believe his value in the forward line is much greater than most people recognise - his tackling and pressure acts are both magnificent and incredibly damaging to the opposition.

 

[mediumsizered]

The key to Sydney's success right here. As a team they play better football than any other team in the comp.

Which realistically means that any team with sufficient talent can achieve success if they play well as a team. I don't think Sydney's best 22 is any more talented than ours, but they do clearly work better as a team & don't rely on a handful of players to set the standard (as stated by Stamos, having a good run with injury also helps).

 

[gbatman]

He has found a niche in the backline but I think you're underselling him. What Henderson provided was the ability to roam upfield and provide a target on a lead to backmen streaming out of defense. Something Waite might have done a few seasons ago before injuries, age and wear and tear took their toll.

Our game often breaks down between the arcs. After clearing the ball from the half back line, with few tall marking targets presenting 65m from goal, clever oppositions seize on turnovers and pump the ball straight back to our fatigued defensive 50.

Yeah he might be able to do that but i think that would be a waste, playing a quality CHB and our second best defender as a forward out up the ground, around the wings etc. Walker and Waite and Casboult are the forwards who aught to be pushing up the ground for us and doing this role.

Agree where our game breaks down, it especially breaks down between center and the forward 50, which all comes back to our pissy short arse forward line.

When we play three tall forwards, the quality and the size of the defender Walker will get will be drastically different, Walker will tear teams appart when he no longer has key position and top quality defenders on him and that's where we will open up the half forward line for our medium and small forwards to tear shreads off lesser/smaller/more evenly matched opposition than they have had previous seasons.

You take Henderson out of that backline then all of a sudden you create an unhealthy reliance on Jamison which has hurt us so much in the past and you put pressure on guys like Laidler to play on guys half a foot taller and you sevearly weaken our defence.

 

[Sin City]

I think the days of our FF being the 2nd ruckman are probably numbered Sin, as impressive as that team looks it's just not the Malthouse way. But who knows - perhaps his plans have changed!

Love the Boots inclusion. I've been too scared to include him in my attempts because he's still a work in progress, but he certainly covers small or medium forwards and can pinch hit on talls as required. Definitely a gun in the making - and he frees Walker from having to play defensively, as IMO he's the next best option (as others have noted by including him in the back pocket, a la Milne v Walker last year).

Have to get the ones with elite talent in the team and up to AFL speed. I'm sick of seeing potential stars rotting in the reserves. Guys like Fyfe, Beams and Sidebottom have all thrived from being given enough time to get used to AFL football and then show everyone what they've got. Hopefully Watson, Bootsma, Menzel and Lucas get the same chances.

 

[Azul]

Yeah he might be able to do that but i think that would be a waste, playing a quality CHB and our second best defender as a forward out up the ground, around the wings etc. Walker and Waite and Casboult are the forwards who aught to be pushing up the ground for us and doing this role.

They ought to but they haven't. Due to his awkward gait, Levi is best suited to running in a straight line out of the goalsquare, Waite is hampered by age and injury impacting his fitness and Walker will never have the muscles.

McInness didn't look out of place in a brief cameo but perhaps it's a job for 'swingman' Paddy!

You take Henderson out of that backline then all of a sudden you create an unhealthy reliance on Jamison which has hurt us so much in the past and you put pressure on guys like Laidler to play on guys half a foot taller and you sevearly weaken our defence.

Yep and any Hendo-switch assumes the continued development of Watson with support from White and Duigan.

 

[gbatman]

They ought to but they haven't. Due to his awkward gait, Levi is best suited to running in a straight line out of the goalsquare, Waite is hampered by age and injury impacting his fitness and Walker will never have the muscles.

McInness didn't look out of place in a brief cameo but perhaps it's a job for 'swingman' Paddy!


Yep and any Hendo-switch assumes the continued development of Watson with support from White and Duigan.

Not sure what you mean about Casboult not being a good mover, he was good up the ground this year and good around the ground as a ruckman. His up the ground game against Essendon was excellent. Not bad for a guy who came into the AFL after a massive lay off.

McCarthy's abilities are a bit of an unknown, has a lot of ability. I think he could well be a bit of a swingman type but at this stage I don't think he is best 22. Could be a replacement for waite or inline for an injured defender this season. Would be interesting to see him get a bit of a run at AFL.

Henderson doesn't have the muscle either. You have to be at least able to hold your position and occasionally out body your opponant and take marks under physical pressure to be a forward and like Kreuzer he doesn't do this well. Casboult is our best body on body mark. Waite is good at holding his ground. Besides that's less important for the up the ground role you are suggesting which makes Walker a great candidate.

McInness is not a key position player, he would always be the underdog and under sized playing key position. He's a medium sized defender like Laidler. This is something we must stop doing at Carlton.

 

[Kramer1]

McCarthy's abilities are a bit of an unknown, has a lot of ability.

Dont go changin' GB.