Strategy Blair Hartley Project 2015 III - Linked to Treloar / Yarran / Stevie J / Kreuzer

[Frustrated Tiger]

Had a heated debate with a bias Carlton supporter. He is a adamant that Carlton won't let Yarran go for anything less than a first round pick

Only issue with Yarran is a new coach (most likely Bolton) might see the talent and convince him to stay etc

No loss to us if he stays. ...

 

[rfctiger90]

I don't really want Yarran. Although in saying that, would trust Blair to pick the right guy for our list and the coaching staff to make him into a valuable player like Grigg, Houli, Hunt, Chappy, Maric. We have a good track record. Knights would probably join that group if not for injury. Hampson was probably the one miss although had 3 good games and 1 shocker this year so could be worse.

 

[Calcium Man]

Cotchin didn't get a huge increase. He was our highest paid player from his last contract considering he was our captain, bnf winner, 2nd in brownlow and face of the club.

Rance took less then 600k.

I don't know how much of pay rise Jack got but he was on about 600k with lids.

Remember to get over 600k you have to do a lot of media work. It's why dusty only got 500k

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

What frustrates me is that we were into Motlop, word is we miss. Into Treloar, miss. Would love to land a big fish, that establishes a desirable location.

We need two things. Everyone is on to the small fwd/mid thing, and would much prefer Motlop over Yarran. Sounds as though its Yarran, as long as we pay the right price, ok.

We need a bona fide ruckman. Big Ivaaaarn only has so long left. I cannot see Vickery/Griff as solution, they are part timers, pinch hitters. Someone in the 23-26 bracket you would get a min 5 years from. Once again, with what looms as a massive off season for trades, word around that Witts/Kreuzer are being looked at by some up North. Reckon profile wise they fit OK.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Once again. If they want success then they will sacrifice a few $ for that. If we do well next month then we have the $ and the future to attract a good player (and maybe Yarran as a risky pick up). I would imagine that for some of the players there isn't a no. 1 choice and they are open to the best tradeoff of income and success. Especially someone like Danger I would have thought.

 

[RockJobster0312]

Those who don't want Yarran, watch Josh Hill's 28 disposal, 3 goal effort against the Dockers. I envisage that's the sort of position and role Yarran would play (and not for a moment am I suggesting he will be a 20+, 3 goal a game player).

Right now, for Treloar, Motlop or Yarran, it will depend largely on who if at all they tell their respective clubs to trade them to. It may be a Ryder situation (get me to Port Adelaide) or a Beams situation (get me to Queensland). If (and Treloar especially) says that he wants to go to a Victorian team, you would suggest the Pies or the Dees are in the box seat. For what its worth, I have heard that we are still in for all three players. Yarran is most linked to us because his dollar value isn't as high as the others which are getting fairly out of control (Treloar) or he is more likely to stay (Motlop).

 

[AJ Green]

What about Carlisle

 

[Tiger71]

Those who don't want Yarran, watch Josh Hill's 28 disposal, 3 goal effort against the Dockers. I envisage that's the sort of position and role Yarran would play (and not for a moment am I suggesting he will be a 20+, 3 goal a game player).

Right now, for Treloar, Motlop or Yarran, it will depend largely on who if at all they tell their respective clubs to trade them to. It may be a Ryder situation (get me to Port Adelaide) or a Beams situation (get me to Queensland). If (and Treloar especially) says that he wants to go to a Victorian team, you would suggest the Pies or the Dees are in the box seat. For what its worth, I have heard that we are still in for all three players. Yarran is most linked to us because his dollar value isn't as high as the others which are getting fairly out of control (Treloar) or he is more likely to stay (Motlop).

Yarran, it comes down if we can do a deal that we believe is fair. We wont be offering our first round, that is fact. Yarran wants to come to us but he is under contract. The blues can easily just let him rot in the VFL next year. I am hoping we can get it done, he is exactly what we need but guess well see.

Motlop has 3 very good offers in front of him and a OK offer from the Cats. All the noise last week is that he would sign this week, maybe due to the Krock announcement or the fact he signed is last contract in August ? Who knows, but the longer it drags out the higher the chance for another club to get him increases IMO. If we could land both Mots and Yarran, wowie...our speed issues would immediately be solved. Personally I think he will re sign with the cats but I am less confident of that happening now as I was last week.

Treloar is a pie. IMO if it happens like the rumors suggest, there should be a trade investigation done about the pies.

Danger will still be a cat.

 

[Tiger71]

What about Carlisle

Melbourne making a huge play apparently.

 

[DrMike]

Not ridiculous

Remember rance was on around $300k, so at least $300k found its way to him.

Even if jack and cotch only had $100k rises, which is overly optimistic IMO, you have $200k left

So the premise some have that this will allow us to buy Dangerfield is ridiculous

You people would be pleasantly surprised by what Rance is on
Jack and Cotch were already on decent coin
Everyone took less so there would be more money for us to chase someone

 

[DrMike]

Those who don't want Yarran, watch Josh Hill's 28 disposal, 3 goal effort against the Dockers. I envisage that's the sort of position and role Yarran would play (and not for a moment am I suggesting he will be a 20+, 3 goal a game player).

20 disposals and 4 goals, not including the shank from the end of the goal square or the passage that cost his team a goal
His goals were more opportune than people make Vickery's out to be, it was a chip scab game

 

[_RT_]

Not ridiculous

Remember rance was on around $300k, so at least $300k found its way to him.

Even if jack and cotch only had $100k rises, which is overly optimistic IMO, you have $200k left

So the premise some have that this will allow us to buy Dangerfield is ridiculous

We are currently at minimum $500k under the cap this season, which is allowing us to go $500k over the cap next season. We've also had Foley and Newman retire which frees up another $500-700k for next year. By my sums that's $1.5-1.7mil in cap space freed up. Even allowing for Cotchin Jack & Rance getting increases we'd still have around $1mil to play with and that's before any further changes are made.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

You people would be pleasantly surprised by what Rance is on
Jack and Cotch were already on decent coin
Everyone took less so there would be more money for us to chase someone

Of course they took less than they could have, but they still had decent hikes

Also rance was on $300-350k, so he was hardly already on decent coin

 

[DrMike]

Of course they took less than they could have, but they still had decent hikes

Also rance was on $300-350k, so he was hardly already on decent coin

That's not what I said
$300k tops of Newman/Foley has been taken up by the 3 mentioned

 

[Ned_Flanders]

We are currently at minimum $500k under the cap this season, which is allowing us to go $500k over the cap next season. We've also had Foley and Newman retire which frees up another $500-700k for next year. By my sums that's $1.5-1.7mil in cap space freed up. Even allowing for Cotchin Jack & Rance getting increases we'd still have around $1mil to play with and that's before any further changes are made.

So I assume you haven't looked at the crop for next year who will be looking for pay hikes?

Our young and improving list means most of those retirement saving will be going to our kids

People thinking we can afford danger and one of Motlop/teloar are kidding themselves

 

[Ned_Flanders]

That's not what I said
$300k tops of Newman/Foley has been taken up by the 3 mentioned

Actually you said people would be pleasantly surprised the three (inc rance) were already on decent coin

Rance wasnt

 

[DrMike]

Actually you said people would be pleasantly surprised the three (inc rance) were already on decent coin

Rance wasnt

Read it again, stop once you get to the end of the line, start again when you get to the next line

 

[RockJobster0312]

What about Carlisle

Have heard we are definitively NOT for a second contemplating Carlisle. Talented yes, but from what I heard can be a bit difficult if he doesn't get his own way.

Yarran, it comes down if we can do a deal that we believe is fair. We wont be offering our first round, that is fact. Yarran wants to come to us but he is under contract. The blues can easily just let him rot in the VFL next year. I am hoping we can get it done, he is exactly what we need but guess well see.

Motlop has 3 very good offers in front of him and a OK offer from the Cats. All the noise last week is that he would sign this week, maybe due to the Krock announcement or the fact he signed is last contract in August ? Who knows, but the longer it drags out the higher the chance for another club to get him increases IMO. If we could land both Mots and Yarran, wowie...our speed issues would immediately be solved. Personally I think he will re sign with the cats but I am less confident of that happening now as I was last week.

Treloar is a pie. IMO if it happens like the rumors suggest, there should be a trade investigation done about the pies.

Danger will still be a cat.

I have heard (and I should state that I have heard this from a source which is completely unreliable - you know friends sisters boyfriends aunt's church's pastors brother sort of connection) that a Yarran - Astbury - Aish three teamer is on the cards. Obviously Aish to the Blues and Astbury to the Lions. Would assume that there would have to be picks involved (Brisbane get killed) - but its on the cards.

Carlton want to trade Yarran. The reason is all about controlling compensation. They could let Yarran wallow next year in the VFL but it clogs up a list space (when there are many teams who are after him) and more importantly, his value goes down significantly. Thus a lesser contract, and the likelihood of Carlton receiving quality FA compensation diminishes. They also see Buckley, Docherty and Tuhoy (as well as Sheehan and Vojo-Rainbow) all playing the same role as Yarran moving forward.

I'd suggest that he would be somewhere between the Trengrove trade (our first for him and their early second) which would see us jump back potentially a few spots and the Gartlett trade (Gartlett and 83 for 61 and 79). If I was a betting man it would be our second for Yarran flat. Carlton could run the risk of another year on the list (as above) and the other suitors (most notably the Hawks) will not offer a higher pick.

Lastly, there is a belief in the industry that free agent compensation is either about to be scrapped, or changed significantly. It will be in part due to the Buddy Franklin compensation (or that's the real life argument against compensation) for two reasons. The first is it is not necessarily fair (Buddy end of first round, Frawley early first) but because the Hawks obtain a first round draft pick and then in the next few seasons, still have the ability to spend big dollars on free agents. Frawley obviously, but also they have made a big play for Dangerfield (why Lake's contract is yet to be renegotiated). The thoughts being from within the industry that yes the Hawks lost a gun. But were compensated with a bucket of oney to use (which they have and wll continue to do so) on future free agents as well obtain another first round pick. It is essentially double dipping. Long story short, Carlton do nowant to get caught next off-season with their pants down in a situation where they don't get anything for losing Yarran.

Insofar as Motlop - I have heard the same as yourself. The deal is pretty much done - or the core of which is done - with the major hold-up being the length (4 years want Cats, 5 wants Motlop). Obviously as time goes on the chances of him leaving are higher, but ultimately believe he will stay a cat.

Treloar is not a Pie - yet. Most likely I agree (not only because of the ploy with his girlfriend which I don't believe is true. And if it were... Tom Scully's old man anyone?) but the Pie's have essentially removed themselves from the Dangerfield race to focus solely on Treloar. They believe that when Pendlebury and Swan retire, Treloar would be the gun (that Beams was to have been) that carries the midfield. They essentially are willing to one-up everyone to see this happen. Also - watch out for the Dee's in this off-season. Willing to spend big for an A+ midfielder.

 

[RockJobster0312]

20 disposals and 4 goals, not including the shank from the end of the goal square or the passage that cost his team a goal
His goals were more opportune than people make Vickery's out to be, it was a chip scab game

I'll be honest, I do not know what chip scab game is, but still thought his game was very good (rewarded with the Ross Glendenning medal too). But essentially that's what I guess Yarran's role will be. Forward 50 pressure. Opportunistic goals and quickness out of the forward 50. Also, Josh Hill was once on the scrap heap too.

 

[banana_bus]

If (and Treloar especially) says that he wants to go to a Victorian team, you would suggest the Pies or the Dees are in the box seat.

Ah wut?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Read it again, stop once you get to the end of the line, start again when you get to the next line

Have done, and it doesn't discount the first statement

I agree everyone took less than they could have, BUT it still doesn't mean rance was on a good pay packet as you said he and the others were. Don't disagree on cotch and jack, but rance was miles off them

 

[DrMike]

I'll be honest, I do not know what chip scab game is, but still thought his game was very good (rewarded with the Ross Glendenning medal too). But essentially that's what I guess Yarran's role will be. Forward 50 pressure. Opportunistic goals and quickness out of the forward 50. Also, Josh Hill was once on the scrap heap too.

Seagull, didn't earn what he got (most of)
A lot of people agree and he shouldn't have won that medal
It's a thing over here

 

[DrMike]

Have done, and it doesn't discount the first statement

I agree everyone took less than they could have, BUT it still doesn't mean rance was on a good pay packet as you said he and the others were. Don't disagree on cotch and jack, but rance was miles off them

Let's try again to make it clearer than shall we.

You people would be pleasantly surprised by what Rance is on.


Jack and Cotch were already on decent coin.



Everyone took less so there would be more money for us to chase someone

Make sense now? Yes Rance wasn't on much. Now read this.

$300k tops of Newman/Foley has been taken up by the 3 mentioned

 

[RockJobster0312]

Ah wut?

Because both are willing to give up a lot (we are talking high and multiple first round picks). Pies definitely for Treloar, Dees moreso for any quality player.

If Treloar through the trade period is the hottest player on the market, they will offer GWS (who they have a good trading relationship with) better than what anyone else can offer.

Likelihood is Dee's will make a huge play for someone else (have heard someone at Gold Coast, unsure who. Prestia's name has been bandied around - could also be O'Meara. But sources are bad/ unreliable), and it is even more likely that Treloar will nominate a specific team - but until that happens - Melbourne are a dark horse.

 

[banana_bus]

Because both are willing to give up a lot (we are talking high and multiple first round picks). Pies definitely for Treloar, Dees moreso for any quality player.

If Treloar through the trade period is the hottest player on the market, they will offer GWS (who they have a good trading relationship with) better than what anyone else can offer.

Likelihood is Dee's will make a huge play for someone else (have heard someone at Gold Coast, unsure who. Prestia's name has been bandied around - could also be O'Meara. But sources are bad/ unreliable), and it is even more likely that Treloar will nominate a specific team - but until that happens - Melbourne are a dark horse.

First I've heard Melbourne linked with Treloar, and probably the last. Why would he want to go there? GWS are 4-5 years from a flag, Melbourne are 40-50 years away.