Bluemour Melting Pot XXIX

[Coops93]

Its way too early for this crap, we'll end up reamed in the trade like we were with Saad.

If we want to make sure this Carlton preference is not public until we've figured out how to do the trade at a price we are willing to pay.

Last year we should have split our first pick and on traded one of them before Saad went public.

Were we really reamed in that trade? He's the no.2 ranked general defender this season.

Just because the media has been critical of him and pumped up Hind doesn't mean he's actually been bad.

 

[Gethelred]

If he requests a trade and nominates Carlton, it'd either be our first alone (top 10 pick), future first (if Freo want to roll that dice), or a later pick (second rounder) with a player (SPS).

Cerra isn't a Lachie Neale or Dylan Shiel type trade. He's a promising young kid who seems to want to get back to VIC, and in that situation Freo will likely need to decide between a high draft pick and the longer term investment but associated risk that represents, or a lesser pick and a player who immediately helps to offset the loss of Cerra.

While I do agree, he's the best performed of Fremantle's young mids. If they lose him, they may as well refuse to draft anyone not from Perth from this point on if all they're going to do is leave.

They need to make this work. Losing Cerra at all is a savage blow to their rebuild; losing him for market price would be a travesty, and losing him for unders would be a judgement of that entire club from top to bottom by one of their players.

I don't see how we get out of this without trading a first and a player, personally. They're not going to want just a first; they have one who is achieving already in Cerra. That he's out of contract will not hurt them, either; they will have a pick before we do in the PSD, and so will all the clubs below us. Do you truly think that North or Hawthorn would shirk at signing him? We'd have to offer him a million next year to get him through to us, and that isn't happening.

I can't see it happening. They need him more than we do, and they have the money where we need to be very careful over the next few seasons not to overpay while we re-sign the younger players we want to keep. We may need our first this year if it can get for us a Jones replacement, if not just our second; if our first can get us someone like Brander or our second can draft someone like Andrews (Brisbane picked Harris with pick 61!) we should not be wasting it in a trade for another midfielder when we have a cavalcade of them developing. And yes, Cerra is better than all of the players we have currently, but that's not to say he's 750 thousand a year good, or is he going to be better than the picks we'd need to trade out to get him.

In my opinion, the opportunity cost of Cerra is projecting to be higher than his presence at Carlton. If we can arrange a deal to pay him 600 thousand with performance incentives and an acceptable trade - say, our future first and McGovern - then that's a good deal more attractive to me.

If not, and they insist on our first this year or Cerra insists on the higher pay rate, I'm out.

 

[Stamos]

It seems overs because it feels like we are giving SPS away for stuff all or no reason but the reality is he is worth stuff all and if he leaves we are getting bugger all for him.
Take him out of any trade for Cerra and we would have to give up more then our pick, what will end up being ~10 for him. SPS will seem a like cheap steak knives compared to what it’ll actually cost to add to pick ~10 to get him. (Assuming SPS demands a trade) I would be interested if anyone could name their 10th favourite player in this years draft and with a straight face say they would prefer them to Cerra. I don’t think it’s anywhere near the ballpark.
For me it just comes down to dollars. Offer him that ~$6-650k and stick to it. If we get Cerra then I imagine SPS is gone and probably no need for Newnes so they would cover his wage anyway.

It's too narrow a view.
A top 10 pick this year coasts about $120k, not 650-700.
The contracts of Saad and Williams already put some pressure on our cap management. Our biggest needs are KPD depth and a Levi replacement, and if we're going to be boosting our midfield, we need elite running.

It's not about Cerra being a good player, it's the cost of the deal, and that cost not in isolation, but how it relates to our total list and currency (draft/trade capital and salary cap space).

 

[Coops93]

While I do agree, he's the best performed of Fremantle's young mids. If they lose him, they may as well refuse to draft anyone not from Perth from this point on if all they're going to do is leave.

He isn't, Brayshaw is.

He may not even be the second best young mid on the team.

 

[fmurphy30]

I rate Cerra. He is a quality footballer. I don't want him at Carlton.

Why? He will cost too much in picks/players and cap space. We have needs that have to be addressed elsewhere.

We have plenty of midfielders but a pooly run midfield. We have Cripps, Dow, Stocker, SPS, Walsh, Setterfield, Kennedy, Fisher, Williams (if he gets fit) and others. This is without considerations for wings, oldies, kids or fringe dwellers. Adding Cerra to that mix doesn't make us better. It makes us more confused.

We do not set up with a proper defensive sweeper in the middle and are too often jumped by the opposition at centre bounces, who waltz out without pressure. One of the positives last week was not having a ruckman meant we had to be defensively accountable. Breaking even in the middle helped enormously. Moving forward, using Cripps as the defensive mid on the best opposition player (unless they are explosive) will help with this if he buys in. Better yet, recruiting Hewitt from Sydney for relative peanuts as a DFA to replace Ed Curnow probably does it better.

Cerra is a very good player but we have quite a few of them. We won't get him to be a defensive stopper. We lack sufficient defensive structures around the ground and do not use our midfielders efficiently enough in the middle. Hopefully the review address these and the myriad other issues at the club. Whether that saves DT or excises him is another discussion.

One area we've been lucky in this year is that JW and Jones have not gone down. We have zero backup behind them. I like Marchbank but there are serious questions on his durability and future. Levi is all but finished but I suspect we may keep him as backup as we have no one else. I have no faith in McDonald. We have no developing talls as we got rid of them all last year. We probably need another ruckman too.

This year our first pick should be around 7-10. I'd like to get the best tall available. If we think that won't happen, then look to trade and get one in. Do we rate someone like Fischer McAsey

3

Fischer Mcasey

Age

23

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.8

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.3

3star

MG

102.3

2star

D

6.8

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

3.5

2star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.3

2star

MG

102.3

2star

D

7.2

2star

K

3.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

MG

114.8

2star

? If so, is he gettable? What will he cost (if its too much, don't bother - we need to learn to say 'no')? If we don't rate him, who else can we get? We need talls to be developing... Who else can we get from the state leagues to be a back up or develop?

I hope we are looking and the needs of the list. We don't need a Cerra as much as we need back ups for key positions and the ruck. Whether you like SOS's drafting or not, he went to the Chris Pelchen school of list structure. SOS drafted for depth in all positions. He wanted and got a certain amount of talls (forward and back), rucks, midfielders etc. I won't argue the toss on what draftees were good or otherwise, but our list was horribly misaligned when he arrived and he corrected it (structurally). He drafted redundancies to back up the list in case of injury. Kerr was drafted effectively to cover Curnow if injured (didn't work, but I understand the theory). TDK could cover Harry (and then move more to a ruck role). This type of list build has a second benefit of ensuring our Magoos are sufficiently structured and able to sustain the senior game plan (although the alignment with NB meant that wasn't happening). There was a plan with SOS. At least he was trying to do something with purpose. After delisting 3 KPD's last year, Austin recruited/drafted midfielders, small defenders and small forwards. We were seen as desperate for a small forward, so we went shotgun and looked at everyone. Our list is unbalanced again.

Getting Cerra is the Carlton we have bemoaned for most of the last 20 years - it is the quick fix for sponsors and photo ops to excite members. Does it make us better? I don't think so. Not because I don't rate him but because I don't think he brings enough that we don't already have. I think by next year, Dow might be about the same. Our club really needs a whole lot more.

Let's focus on the structural problems with the list and back our drafting (or trading at the fringes) to get what we need. Stop chasing the big fish for bragging rights!

 

[Gethelred]

Here's the thing for me; stop weighing SPS against Cerra, because the trade as stated isn't SPS versus Cerra value wise. It's SPS + our first this season versus Cerra, and for me that's a problem.

Is the difference between SPS and Cerra truly worth a mid first round pick? Truly? How likely are we to find an SPS in the draft? Easy/hard?

I really don't get how easily people are willing to let go of SPS. He's dual sided - as in, completely dual sided; he can kick off his right or left with no difference - he's got inside midfield chops at AFL level, he's capable of the miraculous with ball in hand, and he's 23. He's not shown signs of dropping his head.

It's uncanny the speed with which some will drop off a player sometimes.

 

[Gethelred]

He isn't, Brayshaw is.

He may not even be the second best young mid on the team.

Nope. Disagree, strongly.

 

[Coops93]

I really don't get how easily people are willing to let go of SPS. He's dual sided - as in, completely dual sided; he can kick off his right or left with no difference - he's got inside midfield chops at AFL level, he's capable of the miraculous with ball in hand, and he's 23. He's not shown signs of dropping his head.

He doesn't used his left nearly as much as he did early in his career. It's strange to me because he's always been 2 sided and I remember scouting reports suggesting it was genuinely hard to tell which was his preferred foot sometimes. Now he'll attempt to straighten up and use his right or even use the outside of his right foot instead of using his left.

I don't know why he's lost the confidence in his opposite foot because when he does use it there's never any issues.

 

[Gethelred]

He doesn't used his left nearly as much as he did early in his career. It's strange to me because he's always been 2 sided and I remember scouting reports suggesting it was genuinely hard to tell which was his preferred foot sometimes. Now he'll attempt to straighten up and use his right or even use the outside of his right foot instead of using his left.

I don't know why he's lost the confidence in his opposite foot because when he does use it there's never any issues.

JustaBattler is right when you view SPS's disposals - the short, safe kicks that everyone hates him going for - are due to a coaching directive for him to look for safety; release the pressure, give us a stop play to reset. If it's safety you're after, you take the safest possible option always, and you don't take the risk on your opposite foot.

It's something that he's going to have to overcome to improve as an AFL capable footballer, but I genuinely do not understand why people are so willing to discard someone with such AFL capable traits and demonstrated form as steak knives. I don't get it. Trade him when he's at the apex of his value, or when he's worth something at least on a reasonable level of remuneration for what we invested in him; give it every chance to work, and delist him if it doesn't.

Don't trade him because you think he's not up to it or not going to make it or he's lazy or he's not very good or he picks and chooses when to go. Trade him when, and only when, you're going to get decent value in return.

 

[Coops93]

JustaBattler is right when you view SPS's disposals - the short, safe kicks that everyone hates him going for - are due to a coaching directive for him to look for safety; release the pressure, give us a stop play to reset. If it's safety you're after, you take the safest possible option always, and you don't take the risk on your opposite foot.

It's something that he's going to have to overcome to improve as an AFL capable footballer, but I genuinely do not understand why people are so willing to discard someone with such AFL capable traits and demonstrated form as steak knives. I don't get it. Trade him when he's at the apex of his value, or when he's worth something at least on a reasonable level of remuneration for what we invested in him; give it every chance to work, and delist him if it doesn't.

Don't trade him because you think he's not up to it or not going to make it or he's lazy or he's not very good or he picks and chooses when to go. Trade him when, and only when, you're going to get decent value in return.

Were you replying to me here or Justabattler? It didn't really have anything to do with my post.

 

[Coops93]

Nope. Disagree, strongly.

Because you rate Cerra so highly or don't really rate the others?

 

[Gethelred]

Were you replying to me here or Justabattler? It didn't really have anything to do with my post.

Replying to you; he's not going to use his left if his priority is safety. Even if you're good to excellent on your non-preferred, it's still your non-preferred.

Referred to JAB's point because I didn't come up with it as far as that insight goes; don't like people who lay claim to the ideas of others.

 

[Gethelred]

Because you rate Cerra so highly or don't really rate the others?

Because I see Serong as similar to Stringer in that he'll do the amazing then the stupid in a single patch of play, and Brayshaw as another in and under type. Both will have decent highlights, but - more often than not - I much prefer the bloke who's going to hit someone lace out from 50m away to get you a shot at goal against the run of play.

Cerra's such a good kick. Between him and Mundy, they've been able to compensate well enough for having a VAFA level forward line at times this year to kick winning scores. I appreciate ball winning and athletic ability, but sometimes you've just got to go for the bloke who can and has threaded a needle at 50m by foot in a game of footy.

 

[Coops93]

Replying to you; he's not going to use his left if his priority is safety. Even if you're good to excellent on your non-preferred, it's still your non-preferred.

Ah ok. I'm not convinced the answer is he takes those kicks because it's the coaches directive that he needs to kick short for safety to get out of tight situations. He still takes those same kicks and avoids using his left when not under pressure.

 

[Gethelred]

Ah ok. I'm not convinced that's the answer or the coaches directive that he needs to kick short for safety to get out of tight situations. He still takes those same kicks and avoids using his left when not under pressure.

I think it's a hard thing to do, go from playing completely one way and then going to playing another.

It's why I've wanted for a considerable amount of time for them to leave him in the reserves, and to let him develop that cut throat best option reflex disposal. He's played too much defense, goes almost always for the safest possible option when he could be the most dangerous kick inside forward 50 that we have in the team.

Give him to Power for an offseason and for the first 3 rounds in the VFL next year. Get him playing with a bit of dare and much less caution.

 

[Beyond Blue]

Freo wanna play hard ball we will just make it SPS & McGovern for Cerra & Treacy.

Getting rid of McGoverns contract would be a win for us.

Player for player swaps rarely occur in the AFL nowadays

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Not aimed at anyone, but just a request ahead of silly season.

Can we try and make our trade hypotheticals at least moderately realistic. Please try and consider the trade from the non-Blues side.

Lopsided trade hypotheticals are lots of fun, but are kinda a waste of time.

Yours Sincerely,

ferrisb
Snr Sergeant
Trade Police

I'm hearing this:

- Ferris and a 1st round pick to North board
- Snake_Baker to Carlton

 

[Aphrodite]

I'm hearing this:

- Ferris and a 1st round pick to North board
- Snake_Baker to Carlton

Not possible - Perma banned

 

[bmaurizio]

Player for player swaps rarely occur in the AFL nowadays

That would be a great outcome for us, especially if we unloaded all of Gov's salary too, definitely chuck in a pick too , 2022, 1st rounder.

 

[ferrisb]

I'm hearing this:

- Ferris and a 1st round pick to North board
- Snake_Baker to Carlton

We're gonna need an independent review of the mods!

 

[Manhattanite]

Freo wanna play hard ball we will just make it SPS & McGovern for Cerra & Treacy.

Getting rid of McGoverns contract would be a win for us.

Offering McGovern is actually a good idea. I think he can still be a point of difference in our forward line in the future - but I can also see how trading him helps us. McGovern is likely open to going back home and playing for his old mans club - we would have to pay some of his salary for the next two years which is fine. We would get Cerra and keep a draft pick (maybe a second). Freo gets another decent forward and a higher draft pick.






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[Broadside]

I'm hearing this:

- Ferris and a 1st round pick to North board
- Snake_Baker to Carlton

it would be good to offload Ferris' salary but there's no way he would agree to the trade, nothing funny about North

being at Carlton is a "target rich environment" for his skills

 

[Aphrodite]

We're gonna need an independent review of Carlton posters!

 

[Beyond Blue]

That would be a great outcome for us, especially if we unloaded all of Gov's salary too, definitely chuck in a pick too , 2022, 1st rounder.

I'm not doubting its is good deal for us, I don't think that's the way clubs approach trading anymore and I'm also almost certain Fremantle wouldn't entertain it.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

It's too narrow a view.
A top 10 pick this year coasts about $120k, not 650-700.
The contracts of Saad and Williams already put some pressure on our cap management. Our biggest needs are KPD depth and a Levi replacement, and if we're going to be boosting our midfield, we need elite running.

It's not about Cerra being a good player, it's the cost of the deal, and that cost not in isolation, but how it relates to our total list and currency (draft/trade capital and salary cap space).

I have no issues of not chasing him if money is an issue but if we then keep on say Newnes at say $300k because we need back up then I’d prefer we had spent an extra $350k on Cerra type of thing.