Bluemour Melting Pot XXVI

[The Old Dark Navy's]

As per the Bluemour File OP, this is a thread for discussing Carlton related rumours.
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-file.1085141/

Rumour posters should post their rumours in both threads for those that like just to read rumours and for those that like to have get lost in their rumour files.

Remember ... #Bluemour





Continued from here ...

Bluemour Melting Pot XXV

Continued here ... https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-melting-pot-xxvi.1250444/

www.bigfooty.com

Continued here:

Bluemour Melting Pot XXVII

As per the Bluemour File OP, this is a thread for discussing Carlton related rumours. http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-file.1085141/ Rumour posters should post their rumours in both threads for those that like just to read rumours and for those that like to have get lost in their...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Jabba73]

Two first rounders and a decent player I think is not a bad offer for Oliver. Dees would consider it, particularly given he comes out of contract next year and they may not be able to sway him.

That means they need to find two more players to dump off their list (Oliver +2) for the 3 coming in.

Are you sure they want to do that? More likely they ask us to trade player + pick for a better pick so they only have 2 incoming list spots, not 3.

 

[Forty3]

Not required or a ridiculous trade idea??

Gone are the days we can take Salary dumps.
After Saad and Williams it will be hard to squeeze one player at $750+ let alone two.

 

[Jabba73]

Presuming that we hand over our first to Geelong for two late firsts in return and that one of those is used in the Saad deal, how do we even contemplate a deal for Oliver?

A late 2020 first + 2021 first (likely mid) are our assets (equivalent value to pick 3 or 4) and that won't even get us invited to the meeting. It's going to have include one of our young stars and I can't see SPS or Marchbank quite being at the level to get it done. How many years into the future can we deal picks? Is it just 2021 or 2022 in play as well?

If we are chasing Oliver, we don't need to split pick 7, it will go to the Dees as part of the asking price.

* are going to need to revise their expectations, a back pocket/flanker is not worth anywhere near the cost of a Top 10 mid or key forward. It will be a 2nd and maybe something else swapped or a fringe player they really want to target to fill a hole in their list.

 

[blue healer]

We won’t be getting Oliver if we want Saad.


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Not sure why you say this but if you think we can't do both I can only ask....did you expect that Hawthorn would trade in both Mitchell and O'Meara the year after a premiership?

 

[Treesloth]

That means they need to find two more players to dump off their list (Oliver +2) for the 3 coming in.

Are you sure they want to do that? More likely they ask us to trade player + pick for a better pick so they only have 2 incoming list spots, not 3.

Sounds like they may also lose McDonald and Preuss, but they could also on-trade the first rounders to move further up the draft etc.

Plenty of flexibility there, obviously depending on what revised list sizes will be*

 

[Own The Future]

Not required or a ridiculous trade idea??

Couldn’t fit both into the salary cap. Tom McD is currently on $700K+.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Not sure why you say this but if you think we can't do both I can only ask....did you expect that Hawthorn would trade in both Mitchell and O'Meara the year after a premiership?

But the problem is, we aren't Hawthorn.. plus Oliver is going to cost more than either 10 + a future 2nd or 14 + 52 (+ 57 in return).

 

[Aphrodite]

You don't belong here.

Why are you still here.

 

[TheBlueCampaigner]

Funny that Buckenara has singled out Clarry as a player that Melbourne should put up for trade in his assessment of them in the HS today..

 

[reubsblues]

If Oliver wants to come to us he 100% needs to be our priority pick 7 and next yrs first
Get saad another way
Dow O'Brien Kennedy Jsos McGovern Stocker and even sps or marchbank if need be can be used to get done
If we end up getting Williams Saad and Oliver
I can live with losing any of those players

 

[BringBackSimmo]

* has poached highly touted assistant coach Daniel Giansiracusa

Daniel Giansiracusa

Age

42

Ht

182cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.6

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

10.2

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

5.2

5star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.0

4star

from the Western Bulldogs.

Part of their plan to get Dunkley?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I think our chances of landing Oliver will be determined by how early the Saad deal is done.

If we split pick 7, I can't for the life of me see how we can satisfy Melbourne...

If the split doesn't happen on day 1 or early day 2, I reckon it means that pick 7 is in play for an Oliver offer and our chances increase.

But if that pick split happens early then no chance we get Oliver I'd say...

 

[reubs1066]

That means they need to find two more players to dump off their list (Oliver +2) for the 3 coming in.

Are you sure they want to do that? More likely they ask us to trade player + pick for a better pick so they only have 2 incoming list spots, not 3.

Not al all.

Let's say it's 2020 #16, 2021 #10, 2021 3nd rounder...

Nothing stops them from packaging up one or more of those picks for one player or a better pick etc.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Here's an unpopular opinion: If we're serious about Oliver, we have to get used to the idea that a quality player might move with pick(s).

It's no use trying to sell off potential and picks when Melbourne are pretty much at the same level in their list development as us (FWIW, I think our player's ceilings are far, far higher than Melbourne's).

No use saying "why not McG or LOB or Dow" who have either a) had a poor year(s), or b) have potential, but undemonstrated consistency in the top flight.

Put yourselves in Melbourne's list management's shoes for the moment - would you be happy to accept Pick 7 and McG for a gun inside mid?

It'd be like them giving us next yrs 1st round and ANB for Cripps.

As much as I hate it, you gotta give quality to get quality. Neale Freo -> Bris trade comparison probably irrelevant to an extent with respect to trading of picks, given Freo were hitting the draft. Brisbane were extremely savvy in their list management in this aspect...

Is anyone suggesting a future first and LOB for Oliver? Don't think that's been offered up at all.

Something like 13, 16 and LOB for Oliver and a future second would be a decent starting point, I'd think. They can ask for McKay, but McKay has to agree to go there, which he's not going to do on short notice, while contracted, without having had time to sit down with his manager and go through all the ramifications it would have.

Flip it. Hypothetical here, nobody go losing your shit thinking I'm actually suggesting we should do this.

- Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

wants out to Geelong.
- Geelong offer up 11, 16 and Narkle.
- We'd much rather Dangerfield and Stewart. Those two tell us to piss off, they'd rather stay where they are.
- We can either keep Charlie, hope he turns it around, but potentially lose him next year for less.
- Or we can take 11, 16 and Narkle. Package 8 and 11 for Merrett with a too good to refuse offer. Use 16 on Saad. We can field a better than decent forward line with some combination of McKay, Casboult, Gov and TDK. We walk away down a Charlie, but up Merrett, Saad and Narkle.

It wouldn't be the "perfect" result. But it would be making the most of a shitty situation.

Which is what I'm hoping Melbourne will do. They're not a particularly strong-willed club on the field. Taking a disgruntled premium player into 2021 could easily cause more problems for them and result in another horribly inconsistent year. Instead, they should look to remove the potentially destabilising influence in Oliver and turn it to their advantage by addressing other areas of need (key forward, outside run).

 

[Macca43]

I think our chances of landing Oliver will be determined by how early the Saad deal is done.

If we split pick 7, I can't for the life of me see how we can satisfy Melbourne...

If the split doesn't happen on day 1 or early day 2, I reckon it means that pick 7 is in play for an Oliver offer and our chances increase.

But if that pick split happens early then no chance we get Oliver I'd say...

I would go the other way - we can take Saad through the PSD if needs be, give up what we need to to get Oliver and let the bombers have whats left.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Is anyone suggesting a future first and LOB for Oliver? Don't think that's been offered up at all.

Something like 13, 16 and LOB for Oliver and a future second would be a decent starting point, I'd think. They can ask for McKay, but McKay has to agree to go there, which he's not going to do on short notice, while contracted, without having had time to sit down with his manager and go through all the ramifications it would have.

Flip it. Hypothetical here, nobody go losing your sh*t thinking I'm actually suggesting we should do this.

- Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

wants out to Geelong.
- Geelong offer up 11, 16 and Narkle.
- We'd much rather Dangerfield and Stewart. Those two tell us to piss off, they'd rather stay where they are.
- We can either keep Charlie, hope he turns it around, but potentially lose him next year for less.
- Or we can take 11, 16 and Narkle. Package 8 and 11 for Merrett with a too good to refuse offer. Use 16 on Saad. We can field a better than decent forward line with some combination of McKay, Casboult, Gov and TDK. We walk away down a Charlie, but up Merrett, Saad and Narkle.

It wouldn't be the "perfect" result. But it would be making the most of a shitty situation.

Which is what I'm hoping Melbourne will do. They're not a particularly strong-willed club on the field. Taking a disgruntled premium player into 2021 could easily cause more problems for them and result in another horribly inconsistent year. Instead, they should look to remove the potentially destabilising influence in Oliver and turn it to their advantage by addressing other areas of need (key forward, outside run).

Plus, I'd say Melbourne are more well equipped to cover the loss of Oliver than we are to cover the loss of Charlie...

 

[Gavstar]

I would go the other way - we can take Saad through the PSD if needs be, give up what we need to to get Oliver and let the bombers have whats left.

Given the we are willing to take him in the PSD teams may be confident enough to bid before us. If I was North and Saad's in the PSD I take him in a heartbeat not like their salary caps under pressure at the moment.

 

[Brezsa]

I would go the other way - we can take Saad through the PSD if needs be, give up what we need to to get Oliver and let the bombers have whats left.

We had ITK posts last week saying we can’t do Saad through the PSD I’d we get Oliver. Probably not confident enough that we can load up the contract enough in the Cap to scare off the other clubs and they see it as too much of a risk

 

[Macca43]

Given the we are willing to take him in the PSD teams may be confident enough to bid before us. If I was North and Saad's in the PSD I take him in a heartbeat not like their salary caps under pressure at the moment.

And pay $1m to a player who doesn't want to be there? If Saad gets to the PSD he is going to the blues.

 

[Blue since 72]

I think our chances of landing Oliver will be determined by how early the Saad deal is done.

If we split pick 7, I can't for the life of me see how we can satisfy Melbourne...

If the split doesn't happen on day 1 or early day 2, I reckon it means that pick 7 is in play for an Oliver offer and our chances increase.

But if that pick split happens early then no chance we get Oliver I'd say...

This is it.

We've made a commitment to take Saad so that is the club's priority. Oliver will be looked at after Saad is signed off and tbh I don't see how we
can satisfy Melbourne for a contracted gun.

 

[Macca43]

We had ITK posts last week saying we can’t do Saad through the PSD I’d we get Oliver. Probably not confident enough that we can load up the contract enough in the Cap to scare off the other clubs and they see it as too much of a risk

Which makes no sense to me - no one on our list or Oliver would be willing to take a bit less in the next couple of years to get more in the back end.

We also had ITK's saying Oliver is a smokescreen.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I would go the other way - we can take Saad through the PSD if needs be, give up what we need to to get Oliver and let the bombers have whats left.

That's what we the fans wish to happen.

But in reality, we won't be sending Saad to the PSD and picking him up for nothing. Forget it. Just because it happened with Martin, doesn't mean it'll happen again.

OR already stated that getting Oliver relies on us doing a deal for Saad or else we won't be able to put a price on Saad in the PSD anyway and there's no way Norf won't snatch him up. No way.

* are going to be desperate as f for 1st round picks. They can't trade their own. They'll match Daniher and demand Lions 2 first rounders for him. Wheterh one alone will be enough for Caldwell or not, time will tell... but they're gonna need 2 for Dunkley or Dogs will them to GAGF.

Calling it now... if the pick split doesn't happen early, we are right in it to land Oliver. It'll mean pick 7 is in play for him and we're working out what else we can offer vs what else they want.

We wouldn't have bothered approaching his manager if we aren't ready to lose something we value highly... I reckon Dow is good chance to go.

 

[Benaly28]

I’d be having a chat to Ed Curnow. He’d be a walk up start in the Dees 22, and Oliver would most likely kick him out of our midfield somewhat. Ed plus a first round pick would be reasonable compo.


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You’ve just shot Bambi.Seriously Ed?


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[Blue__Balls]

Isn't Smith going to Geelong?

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Geelong have been linked to everyone, as per usual.

If Smith does go to Geelong, I think that works in our favour. Might make LOB a more attractive steak knives option for Melbourne. Two firsts and LOB for Oliver and change. They get LOB for the outside run, they get Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

32

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

with their second rounder, leaves them with two firsts to either draft, or target some other players.

 

[Gavstar]

And pay $1m to a player who doesn't want to be there? If Saad gets to the PSD he is going to the blues.

Don't forget EFC have the pick before us in the PSD..... Pretty sure Dodo would be reminding Austin about that as part of his negotiating strategy. EFC is happy to keep players at the club who don't want to be there. Just ask Daniher and Fantasia. It doesn't cost them anything if he walks away from his PSD contract and would hurt Carlton as we wouldn't get him for another year.