Bluemour 'Silly Season' Edition XXXIV

[Manhattanite]

The chat this year even regarding the top 5 does not fill me with much confidence, Wardlaw has serious injury issues already, Humphrey can’t kick and has no tank, Ashcroft is tied to the Lions, then people seem torn on both Tsatas and Philpou.

Shezeel seems popular because he fits a real need, I’m not saying I don’t like him, trading two first round picks essentially, is too dangerous for me. Over the next two seasons I’d rather multiple first round picks, instead of one top 5 pick

Regardless of my thoughts, a lot will change in the 6 weeks before the draft

Exactly a lot will change and each club ahead of us will change their thinking too in terms of what they need and what they think is best available

As someone else pointed out, half forwards are rarely taken with the top picks so clubs at the top may play it safer. So while Sheezel is maybe 5th in talent he could be taken at say 8th.

Also from what Austin said last week in a Q&A he made it sound he would use our future second to move up from pick 10. Not our future first (which we aren’t allowed to do as things stand anyway). So doesn’t sound like he thinks he needs a top 5 pick for what he wants to do (which is likely Sheezel given 43’s great record).






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[SHOWEY]

Is anyone else waking up this morning feeling that * getting Setters for token a token pick just when we need mid-depth to contend for a premiership and he was just coming good a really not great, stupid idea?

Dodo really bothers me, like a leech that doesn't come off even with fire or salt...

 

[Monty1978]

2 first rounders gets you an established very good player from another club not a sheezel ..I would do it if I was the bombers , chuck in setters and they would be stupid not to do it

 

[Coona Blues]

With regards to Ed.

Experience. Solid. Baseline.

Geelong was built on a group of these types.

Yes he is old. That is actually good. We need it. We know his output. It is very good second half of career. Experienced. Can handle pressure.

If Ed played 15 games this year we would have played finals.

Sorry, but if Juddy played 15 games this year…

Same principle. Time waits for no man.
Not wanting to disrespect Ed, but flies in the face of what we are doing.

 

[iAsbestos]

Our last major play of the trade period will be an attempt to get up the first round order.
Our goal is to get Sheezel.
A lot depends on what North does with pick 1, gws very keen to get 1 and get Cadman, North very keen on Wardlaw. But if the have two picks before us they will take Sheezel with the second.

Humphries similar player for less

 

[KohPhi]

Is anyone else waking up this morning feeling that * getting Setters for token a token pick just when we need mid-depth to contend for a premiership and he was just coming good a really not great, stupid idea?

Dodo really bothers me, like a leech that doesn't come off even with fire or salt...

Nope.
Bottom six footballer moves from one club to another for more opportunity isn't going to be the end of our premiership aspirations.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

With regards to Ed.

Experience. Solid. Baseline.

Geelong was built on a group of these types.

Yes he is old. That is actually good. We need it. We know his output. It is very good second half of career. Experienced. Can handle pressure.

If Ed played 15 games this year we would have played finals.

Sorry... but the difference between making and missing finals was not 32.5 yr old Ed Curnow...

 

[CJMB]

The club won’t pay him 200k and we haven’t failed him......ok

We're probably happy for him to stay on $200k for a year, so maybe a 50% pay cut with him knowing he's a depth player for mid and wing, compared to at least 2 years at * on similar money to he's on now. In that hypothetical it's $200k guaranteed compared to $1M (+/- $200k). That's a huge difference.

 

[agro]

Is anyone else waking up this morning feeling that * getting Setters for token a token pick just when we need mid-depth to contend for a premiership and he was just coming good a really not great, stupid idea?

Dodo really bothers me, like a leech that doesn't come off even with fire or salt...

It will piss me off if Essendon pay more for Weidman than they pay for Setterfield.

 

[FRUMPY]

It will piss me off if Essendon pay more for Weidman than they pay for Setterfield.

I would - easily

 

[Blue_Fusion]

The club won’t pay him 200k and we haven’t failed him......ok

At the end of the day Surrey, he has failed himself. The guy had all the tools to be a very good AFL footballer, but his attitude is what ultimately got in his way.

Position change is definitely not easy and I think mentally he couldn't cope with that. I've seen enough games where he clearly lacked intent.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Get to #5 and then trade Setterfield and #5 for #4.

Yep. Then #4 and Dow for #3.

 

[CJMB]

I wouldn't trade two first rounders for a draftee unless we are talking a Walsh-like prospect.

When we think about draftees, we say 'he plays like Walsh, Cripps or McKay'. Or in Sheezel's case, something like Robbie Gray

9

Robbie Gray

Age

36

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

13.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

.

But really that's the best case scenario. Not unreasonable for that player to turn out like Dow, Setters, SPS (picks 3-6).

So these kids are really POTENTIALLY the next Walsh, Cripps, McKay or Gray.

Which makes a BIG difference to what you should pay for them. A first rounder could be a bust. Paying two first rounders for a kid could be a double bust.

Sheezel isn't the next Robbie Gray

9

Robbie Gray

Age

36

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

13.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

. Instead, he's

5% going to be better than Robbie Gray

9

Robbie Gray

Age

36

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

13.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

10% going to be as good
35% going to be a good player
20% going to be an OK player
30% going to be a bust

I might pay two first rounders for prime Robbie Gray

9

Robbie Gray

Age

36

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

13.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

. I wouldn't pay two first rounders for an unproven kid who miiiight be as good as Robbie Gray

9

Robbie Gray

Age

36

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

13.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

, but probably won't be.

TL-DR; draft picks are overrated and using multiple picks to select one kid looks dangerous IMHO

Early days, but I'm fairly comfortable with the players we've selected under the new LM regime with some ok but not great picks in Motlop (Rd2, #27), Durdin (Rd2, #37) & Caroll (Rd2, #41). I'm interested to see how we'll fare with a few better selections (currently 10, 29, 49, 66, 66).

If we're going to play with our picks I'd probably prefer to see us hang on to 10 & maybe 29 and work with the bottom 3 to see if we can get up a little earlier than 49. Maybe 46+66+68 for 42 or 44 or something?

Otherwise potentially involve a future pick with our bottom 4 to try and get 2 decent picks; not 100% on our futures situation but perhaps 29+49+66+68+F2 for 23+35?

Guess it depends on how many we're planning on taking in the ND too.

 

[CJMB]

Yes that`s true, but if we only get pick 62 or whatever for Setters then isn`t it better to keep him instead of just handing him over to bloody Dodo for bugger all as I cannot recall that * creep ever doing us any favours!!! I heard that we offered Setters a one year contract when he wanted two, so it`s not that he wants out so much but more about him just wanting some certainty....I hate any of our players going to those * dogs.....!!!

Even if we had to offer Setters $800k over 2 to keep him?

 

[Magruder]

I wonder how much they want Setterfield? He would be good for them, he gives them an inside midfielder who brings physicality and tackling pressure, he sort of came good for us the last few rounds so it counts for something. Reckon Bombers and Dodoro are under a lot of pressure to get results, fans are screaming out for an inside midfielder. They would not want to walk away with nothing.

On the flip side he has a fair bit of value to us for the reasons I have mentioned but not to the point where we would not let him go but only for our own advantage.

It's an interesting trade, the guy is not a star but he has value for both sides.

It begs the question, if the tables were turned, what would Essendon be demanding for a player who finished the season like Setterfield had?

They’d be asking for a late 2nd but it would get done at 10 mins to deadline for a 4th.

 

[JustaBattler]

IF we finish last next year and have that F1 traded out.... we won't but... just saying...

Can't we just let GWS (or some other interstate team) draft him and then after 2 years of playing in their 2's bring him in for a second round pick.

On a side note... I don't like that this has spilled out... Cook has been very adamant about not leaking info out... someone still is... sure it's great for this place, gives us something to talk about... but its bad for the club.

Are you taking so-called "ITK posters" too seriously?

 

[Coops93]

The discussion about trading future picks is really interesting.

As a blanket rule, saying I wouldn't trade 2 first round picks for a pick 3, for example, seems a little.. antiquated? to me. It's always hard to know what a future first looks like as it depends wholly on how well we play, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say that we improve again and finish in the 4-6 range on the ladder next year, meaning we have pick 12-14.

Would you trade pick 10 and pick 13 for pick 3? In terms of points you're looking at 2607 for the 2 and 2234 for pick 3 alone, so it's a bit more but not not completely out of whack.

Imo it just depends on how confident you are about your prospects next season as well as how highly you rate the player you're going for at pick 3 vs the players at pick 10 and the mid-late first round picks next year. If you really rate, for example, Shazeel that highly, so much more than any of the mid-late first round picks you'll have in the next 2 yrs, then go for it.

Having said that there's obviously the risk of him being a bust and you lose out on next years first. But ultimately the risk in the end is pick 13, which imo isn't going to devastate a club; if you're depending on pick 13 next year to turn things around then I'm not sure you're on the right track to begin with. The only hinderance I see with trading it is future trading prospects, which for me is the only part of the deal that gives me pause.

 

[I bleed Blue]

I wouldn't trade two first rounders for a draftee unless we are talking a Walsh-like prospect.

When we think about draftees, we say 'he plays like Walsh, Cripps or McKay'. Or in Sheezel's case, something like Robbie Gray.

But really that's the best case scenario. Not unreasonable for that player to turn out like Dow, Setters, SPS (picks 3-6).

So these kids are really POTENTIALLY the next Walsh, Cripps, McKay or Gray.

Which makes a BIG difference to what you should pay for them. A first rounder could be a bust. Paying two first rounders for a kid could be a double bust.

Sheezel isn't the next Robbie Gray. Instead, he's

5% going to be better than Robbie Gray
10% going to be as good
35% going to be a good player
20% going to be an OK player
30% going to be a bust

I might pay two first rounders for prime Robbie Gray. I wouldn't pay two first rounders for an unproven kid who miiiight be as good as Robbie Gray, but probably won't be.

TL-DR; draft picks are overrated and using multiple picks to select one kid looks dangerous IMHO

100% this

You pay 2 first round picks for a known quantity.

Not a speculative pick.

 

[bmaurizio]

Sorry... but the difference between making and missing finals was not 32.5 yr old Ed Curnow...

33 yrs old beginning season 2023 and would not have played senior footy for 18 months. A Great servant of the club no dispute, but not effective list management. I would have preferred him as support to Power assistant coach for VFL perhaps. Ed Curnow and Eddy Betts would be inspirational & instrumental for our youngsters, mentors, developing cohesiveness and inspiring to better performance.

 

[HarryFlashman]

With regards to Ed.

Experience. Solid. Baseline.

Geelong was built on a group of these types.

Yes he is old. That is actually good. We need it. We know his output. It is very good second half of career. Experienced. Can handle pressure.

If Ed played 15 games this year we would have played finals.

First player I’d select to have a kick at goal if my life was on the line (in our side). Ed stands strong when we need him to- it’s actually really important to have this type of person around to grow everyone else. With all the talk of “mental fortitude” having a glowing & positive example of this around you everyday is a huge plus.

 

[GT619]

Will batman find better fitting underwear? Will robin continue to support Suns if Rankine leaves?

View attachment 1531254

Stayed tuned folks…same bat-time, same bat-channel.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Are you taking so-called "ITK posters" too seriously?

Not sure if this one is a "so called" itk...

 

[BigFrizz36]

I would - easily

I'd be more pissed off if my club had taken Weideman before Harry and Charlie

 

[JustaBattler]

Not sure if this one is a "so called" itk...

doesn't answer the question does it?

 

[ferrisb]

Would 10 and Setterfield get us pick 4? Would both clubs do it?

Mods! Someone seems to have deleted ~1,500 words from gbatman's post.... this can't be it

ps - love your work GB