Bombers will make the 8 in '09

[bomba4eva]

NO CHANCE
Sorry but i recon you guys will come 14th to 16th

Ignore the troll.

Believe that 2 of the last 3 years Essendon has beaten Collingwood in our second fixture preventing the Pies from making the top 4. If we aren't making finals at least we are making a significant impact on one of our biggest rivals

A decent injury run and we will make the 8.

 

[Slattery_20]

Are you in any way related to Dave The Man?

 

[GoDons]

Are you in any way related to Dave The Man?

I think his location says enough.

 

[sen entertainment bloke]

How many Geelong supporters genuinely believed that they would win the premiership the following year in Dec 2006?

That's the attitude I like.

Next years premiership is not written in some sort of formula that says certain teams can't win.

Each premiership happens out of the heart of club.

The club with the best heart wins. String of injuries aside.

 

[Ryan The Man]

Sorry about the late reply guys!

get your $$ on the bombers to make the 8 then!
the odds now are $3 for us to make the 8. im getting on them.

Already one step ahead, it's not much but i've got $100 on you guys to
make the 8. $3.00 was bloody good odds, especially since it's looking like
the bookies are being very conservative. They've got 8 teams under $1.90,
and the only team less likely to make the 8 than Essendon are Melbourne at
$6.50, what the hell are they thinking?? Fremantle at $1.75 and West Coast
at $2.70 are "more likely" according to them to make the 8. Even though I
have Fremantle at 8th, no way I'm putting money on $1.75. PATHETIC

I am interested to hear about your reasoning behind
Fremantle. But your other predicitons don't seem too bad. I am glad to see
you are using a system to make predictions rather than just following what
everyone else thinks.

Fremantle was by far the hardest one to do, mainly because of their
massive list changes. It does seem a little strange at first, but when you consider the fact that they lost 8 games in 2008 by less than 10 points, and had they won those games, they would have finished fourth, it's not such a massive shock. They have some pretty good quality players in their team, and IMO they will finish 8th, just.

How many injuries did you factor in for Essendon
in 09.

It'd be bloody hard to be worse than this season just gone, but I
guarantee we will lose some matches next season and we'll put that down to
us missing a few key players for a few weeks.

Unfortunately, I didn't factor in any injuries. I did an overall list analysis, and that goes upon the assumption of ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL, which we all know is impossible. But to go predicting injuries would be too vague IMO.

As for my ladder, here goes:

Hawthon
Geelong
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Port
Essendon
Adelaide
Fremantle
-----------
Carlton
Collingwood
Richmond
West Coast
St kilda
Swans
North
Melbourne


I'll be the first to say that my ladder looks very bizzare. Now it is important to keep in mind that this is simply how I rate certain players from clubs, putting my collingwood bias aside.
Bribane seems weird, but they do have some very good players, including the AFL ready Daniel Rich.
There are four new teams in the 8, 50% change.
Now with cousins, didn't change much, just allowed Richmond to move ahead of West Coast now.
Carlton will just miss out.

I'm expecting people to tell me how I'm not giving North and respect, but I'm looking only at the players, and not the team.
Not many people expected West Coast, Fremantle, and Port to finish so low in 2008, so although saint, swans and north looks ridiculous, its not so farfetched.
I'm putting this ladder out there aware that some people are going to attack it and myself like no tomorrow, but bare in mind that the ladder and the end of a season rarely turns out similar to those that are the common consensus at the start of the season. Therefore taking an overall view of lists is the only way to get a reasonably accurate view of the season ahead.
Best of luck.
GO PIES.

 

[essendon2008]

Hawthon
Geelong
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Port
Essendon
Adelaide
Fremantle
-----------
Carlton
Collingwood
Richmond
West Coast
St kilda
Swans
North
Melbourne

As much as i would love to see that ladder at the end of 09, i just cant realistically imagine it.

I think your top 4 looks pretty good, however i wouldnt be surprised to see the Dogs a little lower and Brisbane does seem too high but every year there are a few teams that shock us so i will give you that one.

On face value, the next 4 looks pretty good, but then you look at the bottom 8 and you feel some of these teams deserve to be in the 8. As you have stated, Carlton, Collingwood and Richmond will just miss finals and i find these teams really hard to place; feeling they could place anywhere from 4th to 12th.

I could agree with the Swans sliding however i really feel the Saints and North would be in the 8, or atleast very close. If you did your predictions based on team lists, then i feel you, as have most people (for a few years now) underrated the Roos. I dont know what it is but they seem to perform above expectations.

Saints i feel are a wildcard and not only injuries but also form and team unity can have a major say on their result. They have enough talent to make top 4 again, but i wouldnt be surprised if they made bottom 4.

Anyway that's just my thoughts. Most likely to be proven wrong come next season but thats how i see it.

 

[Slattery_20]

Brisbane 4th, North 15th, Aints 13th

Interesting

How on earth could you include a first year draftee as affecting a club's overall fortunes. More so than you predict the effect of losing a great coach for a first year bloke

 

[Ben the Gooner]

NO CHANCE
Sorry but i recon you guys will come 14th to 16th

K putting my life savings on us making the 8 now.

RTM, thanks for your input.

 

[Ryan The Man]

How on earth could you include a first year draftee as affecting a club's overall fortunes. More so than you predict the effect of losing a great coach for a first year bloke

It would be absolutely ludicrous to try and make out that I know exactly how Michael Voss will coach in his first year. It is easier to predict the impact a player would have, or at least rate a player. It is widely known that Daniel Rich is AFL ready, the reason he fell to no.7 was because of doubt on the scope of improvement he can make once at AFL level. I don't know whether he can affect their overall fortunes, but I looked at him just as I looked at any other player, and rated how I believe he will perform next year, just as I did with Hurley and Zaharakis (whom I believe will get a fair bit of senior time in '09).

As I said previously, there are so many variable that will impact on the way the ladder will be at round 22 next year, but to go out and begin hypothesising about injuries and coaches tactics would be pointless, I can assure you it would be a waste of time.

Perhaps a better way to describe this ladder is in terms of where I rank the quality of each AFL list, rather than where they will finish.

 

[stay true]

Have to say, kudos for the effort put in.

 

[B-Bomber]

Good work Ryan, it's always good to hear an opposition supporter say good things about our team as despite us all knowing it there is a little part in the back of your mind that realises you might not be looking at the whole picture with both eyes

 

[rusman]

I hope we make the 8. Made a bet today with me mate for a slab that bombers would win above 7 games (like 7+draw or better). Im fairly confident.

About the ladder. gota put north alot higher. People underestimate there list every year. They have been favourites to be bottom few for a while now and they keep doing the job.

Collingwood i cant see dropping out of the 8.

Still good ladder tho and great to hear comments from a collingwood supporter who seems to sell his team short ur a rare breed

 

[windyhill]

Essendon are a good bet in the sort of way that 8 teams make the finals. The only way to make serious money is to bet serious money. If you have the back up, I`m sure the boys will give you " a good run for your money" Geel and Haw are the two clear standouts, the rest you could throw a blanket over them.
They are a very good bet Essendon for the 8, my problem is not getting the actual value, hence , you have to bet big to win big.

 

[Beerfish]

Carlton 9th lol

Love it.

 

[bombre-boy]

.....Carlton 9th lol


Isnt that Richmonds spot!

 

[mick7]

play finals in '09?

I bloody hope so!

 

[KingMullet]

I dont see Essendon making the top 4. With a bit of luck I think they might be able to finish 6th - 8th. Looking at Ryans ladder I agree with what some other people have said in North could finish a bit higher. I also reckon Collingwood will make the 8.

 

[Smyth94]

The concern I have about our finals aspirations are of course mainly injuries - the derailer of even the best teams.

The other concern is our defense and midfield pressure - our defense especially, is going to be quite young and inexperienced with Pears, Myers and Hurley getting plenty of game time in '09, I still think the better forwards will dine on our inexperienced defense but hopefully some increased midfield pressure will help our budding backs.

We definitely have the firepower up front to win games, but we really need to improve on our score against column if we are to make the step up to finals.

 

[SupersonicDocker]

I can see it happening.

From a true realistic point of view i think you guys have the ability to make the finals but perhaps in the same vein as the dogs you would probably struggle on the big stage purely from a lack of battle hardening for the youngs yet. Ala still a lot of smaller bodies.

Predicting huge seasons from

Leroy jetta
Alwyn Davey
Jobe Watson
Brent Prismall (Will come out flying showing geelong how wrong they were)

 

[_Interpol_]

Saints i feel are a wildcard and not only injuries but also form and team unity can have a major say on their result. They have enough talent to make top 4 again, but i wouldnt be surprised if they made bottom 4

Lol, sums em up pretty much. Cept it would be a surprise to end bottom 4, but i get ya point

In my humble opinion, can't see the dons making finals. Any reliance on Gumbleton is misguided, he has played 2 games and been chronically injured. Getting through 22 games would be the bare minimum you would need, any impact would be a bonus.

Ryder for my hasn't really impacted enough games to be considered a big threat to opposition teams. I don't know of many people who shudder when seeing him on the team sheet.

The midfield is still lacking a lot, which puts pressure on a young defence. Once again, you can't expect much from young players.. Pears, Daniher, Hurley.. It just won't happen.

Neagle is an intetesting one who should start having an impact

Too much will be left to too few, 8 wins, 14 losses, 11th-13th spot.

Good luck regardless

 

[_Interpol_]

I can see it happening.

From a true realistic point of view i think you guys have the ability to make the finals but perhaps in the same vein as the dogs you would probably struggle on the big stage purely from a lack of battle hardening for the youngs yet. Ala still a lot of smaller bodies.

Predicting huge seasons from

Leroy jetta
Alwyn Davey
Jobe Watson
Brent Prismall (Will come out flying showing geelong how wrong they were)

RE: Prismall

First year back after a knee reco in september? be realistic, will be lucky to start playing mid season, no impact can be expected in 2009. 2010 for him. Some of the toughest players take a good 12 months of footy to start to fire big time.

 

[Burzum]

Gumbleton's played 5 games.

 

[damochandler]

i hope we make the 8. but we arent really at the stage of making the 8. we are on the fringes of making the 8. we will make the 8 in 2010

 

[bomberstomake8]

Lol, sums em up pretty much. Cept it would be a surprise to end bottom 4, but i get ya point

In my humble opinion, can't see the dons making finals. Any reliance on Gumbleton is misguided, he has played 2 games and been chronically injured. Getting through 22 games would be the bare minimum you would need, any impact would be a bonus.

Ryder for my hasn't really impacted enough games to be considered a big threat to opposition teams. I don't know of many people who shudder when seeing him on the team sheet.

The midfield is still lacking a lot, which puts pressure on a young defence. Once again, you can't expect much from young players.. Pears, Daniher, Hurley.. It just won't happen.

Neagle is an intetesting one who should start having an impact

Too much will be left to too few, 8 wins, 14 losses, 11th-13th spot.

Good luck regardless

i would guess we would finish around 10th, your reasoning though is way off the mark, whoever said we are relying on pears hurley daniher and gumbelton?, of those four i only expect pears to get named in our best 22 next year.

why would we rely on any young gun up forward when we have lloyd and lucas? gumbelton and neagle will be eased into the game, its not like they will be thrown in at CHF and FF.. they will be playing FP and HFF.. playing roles alongside lloyd and lucas

and down back i expect only pears will be getting consistent games going on his preseason thus far. hurley is not in our starting best 22 yet hopefully he will be getting there by the end of the season. same goes with daniher.

with fletcher and ryder filling up FB and CHB pears/hurley will be playing the third tall defender. hardly relying on them or expecting too much from them

the people we need to have big seasons to make the finals are our senior players lloyd lucas fletcher, mcveigh, ryder, hille, welsh, watson, stanton, and maybe someone like houli or reimers

i dont get why you think we will rely too much on gumbelton neagle pears hurley and daniher.

 

[mercs]

I think top 4 will not happen but 6-8 for me. my assessment for Essendon with the following players we are looking in good stead.

McVeigh - Is a fantastic player and love's playing for the club a future captain for my mine and a midfield leader.
Davey - Really puts alot of pressure on the opposition and very hard man to stop, love the way he plays and very important to Essendon
Lovett - Will be mentially strong this year and with the right support and nothing to loose will be at Essendon for the rest of his career. pace to burn
Watson/Stanton - Will be the solid contributors in the middle supporting McVeigh and all will receive alot more support from Houli, Welsh, Lovett, Winder, Monfires and co.
Foward Line - Lloyd, Lucas, Gumpy, Jetta, Monfries will kick 40 goals, Davey, McPhee, Neagle will be great player & Hille (resting). This is a very strong and if gells will be hard to stop.

The backline is our weaker area but with Pears, Nash (our Wellman) Slattery, Hurley - needs a year or 2, Meyers & Prior these guys need to help Ryder and Fletcher out.

I expect that following to just continue on there form - Hillie, Watson, Fletcher, McVeigh & Stanton with Davy to light us up

So if the backline gets stronger and gells together I am tipping 5-6 but I think 7 or 8 next year.