Boomer saying he'll be the last to play 400 games

[Kram]

Yep..... Would you say the game has changed from 1990 to today?

Yep the physical demands have risen dramatically yet here we are sitting 25 years later and 2 more have been added to the list. Very, very difficult to do but one day eventually another player will get there.

 

[Belnakor]

These 2015 listed players are closest in age to the record-holders for their respective number of games:

Ron,

Calling upon your DB can we also get

1) Percentage of games played vs potential games played by their team (ie: most durable players)
2) Percentage of games played vs total games in season (to get an idea of players who have cash in on finals the most to add to games)

That would give a bit more information. I think 1 would be a good measure.

 

[Phillyroo]

Yep the physical demands have risen dramatically yet here we are sitting 25 years later and 2 more have been added to the list. Very, very difficult to do but one day eventually another player will get there.

These 2 are freaks, and have the benefit of knocking out 100games ish in the 90's. You may be right you may be wrong. But if I was gonna put my house on a result I would go with Boomer on this one.

 

[Dacksaredown]

They were probably saying the same thing when Barlett did it, then Tuck did it. I think it's definitely possible for someone to do it again. Look at how well they are treated, with docs and physios and rubdowns and all that. I'd imagine Bartlett never got that treatment.

 

[Spook]

Yep..... Would you say the game has changed from 1990 to today?

Yes
And would You say the game changed from 1975 to 1990?

 

[The Swert]

Most 300 game players have come in the last 50 years. Before then Gordon Coventry, Jack Dyer, Dick Reynolds were the only ones to break that barrier.

Its hard, but not Impossible.

Until 1968 there were only 18 games a round, we now play 22.

There will probably come a time when we play 25 rounds a year and then many records will be broken.

Yes we will see another 400 game player. I reckon it will be an interstate player. I think the 'travel effect' is a furphy. Adelaide has more 300 gamers than Melbourne despite being around only 25 years.

 

[hawker19]

Mitchell is only a year younger than Pav and has played 40 less games. He won't get anywhere near 400 and i'd be surprised if he gets to 350.

Pav is key position forward who has traveled countless times across the country for hundreds of thousands of kilometres and is showing signs of wear and tear. Mitchell is arguably in career best form, is surrounded by strong midfielders and doesn't get crunched anywhere near as much as Pav has over the journey. Still got a few years left in him I reckon.

 

[Ron The Bear]

A look at the number of players per club playing every h&a match for the season suggests that, since the early 90's, players are more resilient than ever before.

Year|Pl/Cb||Year|Pl/Cb||Year|Pl/Cb||Year|Pl/Cb
\1897|3.88||1927|3.92||1957|3.92||1987|2.79
\1898|3.88||1928|3.08||1958|5.25||1988|2.57
\1899|4.13||1929|3.17||1959|3.25||1989|2.86
\1900|2.63||1930|4.25||1960|4.50||1990|3.64
\1901|2.88||1931|3.92||1961|3.92||1991|4.07
\1902|2.38||1932|3.08||1962|2.92||1992|3.60
\1903|3.88||1933|2.58||1963|4.25||1993|5.13
\1904|4.25||1934|2.58||1964|4.00||1994|4.27
\1905|4.25||1935|3.50||1965|3.25||1995|4.25
\1906|3.50||1936|3.17||1966|3.67||1996|4.25
\1907|3.50||1937|2.50||1967|4.92||1997|4.50
\1908|2.90||1938|3.58||1968|2.92||1998|4.69
\1909|4.00||1939|2.92||1969|3.33||1999|5.06
\1910|4.40||1940|3.67||1970|3.50||2000|5.19
\1911|3.30||1941|3.75||1971|3.00||2001|5.25
\1912|4.20||1942|2.36||1972|2.75||2002|5.44
\1913|4.00||1943|4.18||1973|3.00||2003|5.94
\1914|3.00||1944|4.33||1974|3.08||2004|5.56
\1915|4.78||1945|3.17||1975|2.75||2005|5.88
\1916|4.50||1946|3.25||1976|3.83||2006|6.56
\1917|3.50||1947|3.17||1977|1.92||2007|6.75
\1918|3.88||1948|3.08||1978|3.67||2008|5.06
\1919|2.33||1949|2.75||1979|4.00||2009|4.88
\1920|3.89||1950|2.92||1980|3.08||2010|4.13
\1921|3.78||1951|4.25||1981|2.42||2011|4.65
\1922|3.67||1952|3.42||1982|3.33||2012|4.33
\1923|3.44||1953|3.75||1983|3.50||2013|4.22
\1924|3.67||1954|3.83||1984|2.75||2014|4.83
\1925|4.25||1955|3.75||1985|3.08||2015|7.83*
\1926|3.67||1956|3.08||1986|2.92|||

 

[Phillyroo]

Yes
And would You say the game changed from 1975 to 1990?

Not nearly as much as it did from 1990 to now.

 

[Belnakor]

Yes we will see another 400 game player. I reckon it will be an interstate player. I think the 'travel effect' is a furphy. Adelaide has more 300 gamers than Melbourne despite being around only 25 years.

melbourne have been shit for the majority of the past 25 years which has a significant effect on career length

 

[Ron The Bear]

Ron,

Calling upon your DB can we also get

1) Percentage of games played vs potential games played by their team (ie: most durable players)
2) Percentage of games played vs total games in season (to get an idea of players who have cash in on finals the most to add to games)

That would give a bit more information. I think 1 would be a good measure.

Percentage of club's games played since debut (min 50 games played):

Player|Gms|Missed|%|Age
\Gibson, Sam|75|0|100.00|29.16
\Howe, Jeremy|93|1|98.94|25.07
\Zorko, Dayne|74|1|98.67|26.45
\Talia, Daniel|90|2|97.83|23.81
\Jones, Nathan|194|5|97.49|27.51
\Breust, Luke|106|3|97.25|24.70
\Rampe, Dane|63|2|96.92|25.14
\Martin, Dustin|123|4|96.85|24.08
\Ellis, Brandon|80|3|96.39|21.97
\Gibbs, Bryce|187|8|95.90|26.36
\Pearce, Danyle|218|10|95.61|29.30
\Baguley, Mark|65|3|95.59|28.17
\Wingard, Chad|82|4|95.35|21.99
\Deledio, Brett|225|12|94.94|28.27
\Blair, Jarryd|116|7|94.31|25.28
\Heppell, Dyson|99|6|94.29|23.19
\Picken, Liam|143|9|94.08|28.98
\Morris, Steven|76|5|93.83|26.56
\Wines, Oliver|60|4|93.75|20.79
\Blicavs, Mark|59|4|93.65|24.32
\Dangerfield, Patrick|145|10|93.55|25.30
\Taylor, Harry|173|12|93.51|29.11
\Selwood, Joel|197|14|93.36|27.16
\Hannebery, Daniel|135|10|93.10|24.41
\Vlastuin, Nick|53|4|92.98|21.26
\Mundy, David|225|17|92.98|30.01
\Riewoldt, Jack|172|13|92.97|26.73
\Tuohy, Zach|91|7|92.86|25.62
\Patfull, Joel|193|15|92.79|30.63
\Clarke, Justin|51|4|92.73|21.68
\Pavlich, Matthew|328|26|92.66|33.56
\Gaff, Andrew|100|8|92.59|23.10
\Atley, Shaun|99|8|92.52|22.86
\Dahlhaus, Luke|86|7|92.47|22.92
\Pendlebury, Scott|207|17|92.41|27.54
\Treloar, Adam|73|6|92.41|22.37
\Ebert, Brad|162|14|92.05|25.31
\Cloke, Travis|231|20|92.03|28.39
\Stanton, Brent|241|21|91.98|29.23
\Goodes, Adam|364|32|91.92|35.54
\Redden, Jack|124|11|91.85|24.62
\Puopolo, Paul|101|9|91.82|27.64
\Betts, Eddie|220|20|91.67|28.66
\Hill, Stephen|143|13|91.67|25.23
\Westhoff, Justin|174|16|91.58|28.81
\Dal Santo, Nick|291|27|91.51|31.42
\McVeigh, Jarrad|258|24|91.49|30.30
\Smith, Devon|74|7|91.36|22.18
\Bastinac, Ryan|116|11|91.34|24.09
\Harvey, Brent|399|38|91.30|37.19
\Lewis, Jordan|229|22|91.24|29.25
\Cunnington, Ben|114|11|91.20|24.07
\Smith, Isaac|100|10|90.91|26.56
\Murphy, Marc|199|20|90.87|28.01
\Boak, Travis|170|18|90.43|26.98
\McDonald, Tom|75|8|90.36|22.85

% of finals played (min 200 games played):

Player|Gms|Fnls|Fnls %
\Schneider, Adam|225|23|10.22
\Burgoyne, Shaun|284|27|9.51
\Bartel, Jimmy|276|26|9.42
\Johnson, Steve|247|23|9.31
\Mackie, Andrew|228|21|9.21
\Lumumba, Heritier|213|19|8.92
\Shaw, Heath|206|18|8.74
\Birchall, Grant|205|17|8.29
\Kelly, James|267|22|8.24
\Cloke, Travis|231|19|8.23
\Pendlebury, Scott|207|17|8.21
\Richards, Ted|245|20|8.16
\Swan, Dane|251|20|7.97
\Chapman, Paul|279|22|7.89
\Franklin, Lance|218|17|7.80
\McVeigh, Jarrad|258|20|7.75
\Hale, David|228|17|7.46
\Lewis, Jordan|229|17|7.42
\Enright, Corey|302|22|7.28
\Goodes, Adam|364|26|7.14
\Lake, Brian|241|17|7.05
\Shaw, Rhyce|228|16|7.02
\Dal Santo, Nick|291|20|6.87
\Roughead, Jarryd|220|15|6.82
\Mitchell, Sam|275|18|6.55
\Goddard, Brendon|262|17|6.49
\Hodge, Luke|262|17|6.49
\Cornes, Kane|300|19|6.33
\Ablett junior, Gary|273|17|6.23
\Fisher, Sam|209|13|6.22
\Judd, Chris|279|17|6.09
\Riewoldt, Nick|292|17|5.82
\Montagna, Leigh|242|14|5.79
\Fletcher, Dustin|400|23|5.75
\Sandilands, Aaron|231|13|5.63
\Ray, Farren|203|11|5.42
\Mundy, David|225|12|5.33
\Griffen, Ryan|217|11|5.07
\Harvey, Brent|399|20|5.01
\Reilly, Brent|203|10|4.93
\Pearce, Danyle|218|10|4.59
\Cross, Daniel|242|11|4.55
\Johnson, Michael|200|9|4.50
\Morris, Dale|200|9|4.50
\Boyd, Matthew|252|11|4.37
\Thompson, Scott|276|12|4.35
\Wells, Daniel|224|9|4.02
\Pavlich, Matthew|328|13|3.96
\Firrito, Michael|245|9|3.67
\McPharlin, Luke|251|9|3.59
\Petrie, Drew|283|10|3.53
\Cooney, Adam|228|8|3.51
\Monfries, Angus|206|7|3.40
\Murphy, Robert|286|9|3.15
\Betts, Eddie|220|6|2.73
\Simpson, Kade|235|6|2.56
\Watson, Jobe|200|5|2.50
\Stanton, Brent|241|5|2.07
\Deledio, Brett|225|2|0.89
\Newman, Chris|260|2|0.77

 

[The Swert]

melbourne have been shit for the majority of the past 25 years which has a significant effect on career length

Melbourne have been in the competition for 118 years yet only have one 300 game player.
Collingwood have been in the competition for 118 years yet only have two 300 game players. None in the past 20 years.

Adelaide have only been in the competition for 24 years and already have four 300 game players.
Fremantle have only been in the competition for 20 years and already have one 300 game player.
Port Adelaide have only been in the competition for 18 years and already have one 300 game player.

That's not bad for the new teams considering it generally takes a player 15 years to get to 300 games.

Yes, success breeds longevity but so does being in the competition for a few decades.

 

[Belnakor]

Percentage of club's games played since debut (min 50 games played):

interesting...

So the trend line of players who haven't missed very many games is 20.2015*AGE-385.668. So this means these guys play about 20 games a year.

On that basis there are people who are behind/infront of the mark (no idea how to do the tables sorry)

Player Gms Age Avg Infront/Behind
Cloke, Travis 231 28.39 187.852585 43.147415
Dal Santo, Nick 291 31.42 249.06313 41.93687
Gibbs, Bryce 187 26.36 146.84354 40.15646
Deledio, Brett 225 28.27 185.428405 39.571595
Ebert, Brad 162 25.31 125.631965 36.368035
Pendlebury, Scott 207 27.54 170.68131 36.31869
Stanton, Brent 241 29.23 204.821845 36.178155
Pavlich, Matthew 328 33.56 292.29434 35.70566
Selwood, Joel 197 27.16 163.00474 33.99526
Harvey, Brent 399 37.19 365.625785 33.374215
Goodes, Adam 364 35.54 332.29331 31.70669

so the names raised in the thread are pretty close to on the money

 

[Tas]

If things stay the same (which never happens) then he is probably right. However, things always change. The reason we have 400 game players at all is because the VFL increased in size and played more games.

There will be others, AFL can't stop meddling with the game and I can't see the future direction to be keep things as they are.

I expect the landscape to be radically different in 10 years time. I expect the AFL will shorten the game in the future, if the attention span of future generations continues to decline as rapidly as it has recently then I wouldn't be surprised if the game will be reduced down to an hour and I think the physical requirement to sustain a shorter period will be significantly reduced.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they reduce the number of players in the future, particularly get rid of at least 2 forwards and 2 defenders, possibly even the current wing men, I think this would make it harder for teams to congest/zone/press and you will probably find fewer front on collisions which account for the majority of serious injuries.

I doubt you will see future players rack up as much time on field, but who knows, if they shorten the game and continue to increase the number of teams you might end up with a longer season made up of more shorter games which would probably put 500 games in sight.

 

[Freomaniac]

Suprisingly, I dont Recall an NRL player Playing 400 games, A couple would of played 350. The reason I bring this up was the teams play 24 games each then finals. In VFL/AFL history, the early years was a 14 round season, then 18 then eventually 22. Would like to see the AFL increase to 24 rounds, gives players a chance to crack the 400 games, Peter Carey played 447 games for Glenelg, Russell Ebert played 392 games in the SANFL, which makes their records more remarkable as they both played in an era where the SANFL was at its most violent.

 

[Seedsfan]

Back when Coverntry made it to 300 games they said no one will replicate that.

 

[Spook]

Not nearly as much as it did from 1990 to now.

Change is relative.

 

[Seedsfan]

If things stay the same (which never happens) then he is probably right. However, things always change. The reason we have 400 game players at all is because the VFL increased in size and played more games.

There will be others, AFL can't stop meddling with the game and I can't see the future direction to be keep things as they are.

I expect the landscape to be radically different in 10 years time. I expect the AFL will shorten the game in the future, if the attention span of future generations continues to decline as rapidly as it has recently then I wouldn't be surprised if the game will be reduced down to an hour and I think the physical requirement to sustain a shorter period will be significantly reduced.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they reduce the number of players in the future, particularly get rid of at least 2 forwards and 2 defenders, possibly even the current wing men, I think this would make it harder for teams to congest/zone/press and you will probably find fewer front on collisions which account for the majority of serious injuries.

I doubt you will see future players rack up as much time on field, but who knows, if they shorten the game and continue to increase the number of teams you might end up with a longer season made up of more shorter games which would probably put 500 games in sight.

Lol

 

[Phillyroo]

Change is relative.

Ok, and relatively speaking the game has gotten too fast and too taxing for it to be done again in Boomers opinion. Who incidentally is infinitely more qualified on this topic than you and I.

 

[chiwigi]

If the hunger for the game is there then more players than ever could make 400. They have better medical teams, recovery and fitness than anything we've seen before (or we're lead to believe?). This could just be the beginning. The biggest obstacle I see is remaining first choice to play with the coach.

Finances these days are also a greater incentive.

 

[Walter H White]

I apologise in advance if someone has already mentioned this (haven't read the whole thread) but if the length of a season changes in the future i.e. to 26 games a season, then it obviously increases the opportunity for players to play more games, albeit potentially increasing the wear and tear on players having to play more games in any single season. This may never happen, and the opposite could occur but it's not beyond the realms of possibility even if it doesn't happen for many years.

 

[Tas]

Lol

AFL has been talking about the possibility of reducing the number of players since 2011, the issue of congestion and the appeal of games has been an ongoing issue, there has been a lot of recent talk about shortening the length of games over the last few years as well.

Comparing any block of 20 years in the modern times has seen significant change from period to period, expecting there wont continue to be radical change in the next block is unrealistic.

 

[Spook]

Ok, and relatively speaking the game has gotten too fast and too taxing for it to be done again in Boomers opinion. Who incidentally is infinitely more qualified on this topic than you and I.

Have a chill pill flog, I never questioned Boomers opinion at all.

You are obviously to simple to understand change and rate of change and relativity.

 

[Spook]

I apologise in advance if someone has already mentioned this (haven't read the whole thread) but if the length of a season changes in the future i.e. to 26 games a season, then it obviously increases the opportunity for players to play more games, albeit potentially increasing the wear and tear on players having to play more games in any single season. This may never happen, and the opposite could occur but it's not beyond the realms of possibility even if it doesn't happen for many years.

But But Boomer said it will never happen

 

[calyam]

I don't see the season becoming any longer - if anything the season is more likely to become shorter. Another factor that could be important is draft age - if the AFL increase the draft age to 19 then the quest to 400 immediately becomes harder.

But if neither of those factors change then I'd be surprised if it didn't happen again. Events which occur four times in a 32 year period can best be considered achievable even if they are difficult. I don't see any clear cut possibility among the current crop though - Pavlich is perhaps the best chance and that would take a remarkable effort for a KPF. Ablett could have an outside chance as well given he could become a half forward flanker in his twilight.