News Brad Hill requests trade to Fremantle

[Keys]

I haven't looked through the whole thread, but has anyone crunched the numbers on what Mayne going to C'wood actually nets us? Or is #4 a genuine possibility?

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

COMPENSATION

A club that has a net loss of players transferring to/from other clubs as free agents in one transfer period is entitled to compensation via National Draft picks allocated by the AFL.

The compensation formula produces a points rating for players based on:

1. The new contract of the free agent;
2. The age of the free agent.

Draft picks are allocated to clubs based on the net total points for free agents lost and gained during the transfer period.

Draft picks will be allocated to one of five places:

• 1st round
• end of 1st round
• 2nd round
• end of 2nd round
• 3rd round

In applying the formula, an expert committee reviews the formula outcomes. The committee has the power to recommend alternative outcomes to GM – Football Operations where the formula produces a materially anomalous result.

Its rubbery but to get Pick 4 Mayne's salary would have to be in the top 5% of players over 25 in the league - apparently 6% were paid over $600k in 2014 so pick 4 is doubtful as most would expect.

After that it gets sketchy especially with the bit at the end that I've bolded that basically means they can make it up if they don't like the result. The best you'll get is a 2nd round pick (22) and if the AFL decides to get creative you could be looking at end of 2nd round (37).

Last year Scott Selwood got us a 2nd round pick whilst Leuenberger and Suckling both were awarded an end of 2nd round pick for Brisbane and Hawthorn respectively - all picks in the late 30's. All players were given 3 year deals as far as I know (not certain on Suckling)

Anything less than $400k per year and I reckon the AFL will manipulate it to an end of 2nd round pick. Over $450k and it's hard to see how it can't be pick 22. Between $400-450k and it's toss a coin

Just my guess FWIW

Edit : There's also no point looking at any compo prior to last year as the compensation was watered down after Frawley got pick 3 for Melbourne

 

[TheLastCall]

Wel


Well the next category up from a second rounder is an end of first which wouldn't make a huge difference since we finished so low. Of course the afl doesn't reveal what the cut-off numbers for the formula are.

They've said it'd have to be in the top 5% of players over 25,which is estimated to be about the top 15 players. End of first round is the next 10% then 2nd round next 15%.

So Mayne would need to be earning more than 70% of the players over 25 to be pick 22. Does 500k a year cover that? No idea

However at the bottom of the rules on the afl site it days "in applying the formula, an expert committee reviews the formula outcomes. The committee has the power to recommend alternative outcomes to gm - football operations where the formula produces a materially anomalous result"

I think they'd argue pick 4 would be such a result. So pick 19 or pick 22 are most likely if Collingwood really pay that much for that long

Pick 19 would make a difference as it's a first round pick and we possibly could use it as our first and trade 3 & next years 1 st for Hogan. 22 would not allow that. And extra first allows interest possibilities.

 

[G Mus]

I haven't looked through the whole thread, but has anyone crunched the numbers on what Mayne going to C'wood actually nets us? Or is #4 a genuine possibility?

Not unless he pulls in a minimum of 700k a year, probably more

 

[Dockernut]

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency



Its rubbery but to get Pick 4 Mayne's salary would have to be in the top 5% of players over 25 in the league - apparently 6% were paid over $600k in 2014 so pick 4 is doubtful as most would expect.

After that it gets sketchy especially with the bit at the end that I've bolded that basically means they can make it up if they don't like the result. The best you'll get is a 2nd round pick (22) and if the AFL decides to get creative you could be looking at end of 2nd round (37).

Last year Scott Selwood got us a 2nd round pick whilst Leuenberger and Suckling both were awarded an end of 2nd round pick for Brisbane and Hawthorn respectively - all picks in the late 30's. All players were given 3 year deals as far as I know (not certain on Suckling)

Anything less than $400k per year and I reckon the AFL will manipulate it to an end of 2nd round pick. Over $450k and it's hard to see how it can't be pick 22. Between $400-450k and it's toss a coin

Just my guess FWIW

Edit : There's also no point looking at any compo prior to last year as the compensation was watered down after Frawley got pick 3 for Melbourne

Thanks. The Frawley thing is typical AFL-Vic-centric-nothing-to-see-here-ism.

 

[Andy Brennan]

So based on the stats on footy wire which don't seem to have been updated for list changes made so far this year there are 331 afl payers over 25 right now today. What date the afl determines to work out when a player is calculated as over 25 for free agent formula purposes I dont know.

So if Mayne earns more dollars than 232 of those players (top 99) he's worth pick 22.

If he gets more than 281 (top 50) of them he's worth pick 19.

If he gets more than 314 of them (top 17) he's worth pick 4.

This is all very rough please don't nitpick my numbers guys

My guess is the forumla is meant to capture about the top 100, 50 and 15 earners over 25 as cut-offs for the banding

 

[Okinakashi]

What date the afl determines to work out when a player is calculated as over 25 for free agent formula purposes I dont know.

It's when the paperwork is submitted. So the actual numbers change as people have birthdays and are given new contracts or delisted etc.

 

[Keys]

What date the afl determines to work out when a player is calculated as over 25 for free agent formula purposes I dont know.

It's based on the date the paperwork is lodged so it's conceivable, albeit very unlikely, that a difference in lodging the paperwork by a couple of days could change the compensation result. Have a look at birthdays in October 1990 for players that will turn 26 during the FA period.

 

[Andy Brennan]

It's based on the date the paperwork is lodged so it's conceivable, albeit very unlikely, that a difference in lodging the paperwork by a couple of days could change the compensation result. Have a look at birthdays in October 1990 for players that will turn 26 during the FA period.

Interesting, and far too hard for me to bother trying to accurately calculate it.

Im gonna say year to year it'd fluctuate somewhere around the top 15, 50 and 100 as the cut-offs for 1st, end of 1st and 2nd round compensation.

Assuming the age profile of the entire afl is relatively stable

Edit: also assuming the total number of players is about the same

 

[GreatPurpleShark]

On what planet would WCE want BHill? They traded for Jetta last year. They need another purely outside mid on their list? Anyone suggesting WC will put their first up for Brad Hill needs to do a brain detox.

Pick 17 for redden.......... end of story

 

[Carnthedockers]

Yeah true, like this complete lack of creativity up forward: http://www.afl.com.au/video/smart-r...02&eventType=Goal&seek=2248&videoQuality=high

Im sure if i looked hard enough I could find footage of a cm perfect pass from Dawson as well..

 

[PurpleGreenRed]

McGuire has been after Mayne for years. He mentioned in 2012 when we made a play for Cloke that he would be after our 22-23 year olds and I think he mentioned Mayne in particular on Fox Footy.

Now he's got his Mayne man and I think he will be a loss to our club.

 

[Freo88]

I would just be glad to have three premierships.

Thought the same thing when I was typing that!

 

[Silky32]

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency



Its rubbery but to get Pick 4 Mayne's salary would have to be in the top 5% of players over 25 in the league - apparently 6% were paid over $600k in 2014 so pick 4 is doubtful as most would expect.

After that it gets sketchy especially with the bit at the end that I've bolded that basically means they can make it up if they don't like the result. The best you'll get is a 2nd round pick (22) and if the AFL decides to get creative you could be looking at end of 2nd round (37).

Last year Scott Selwood got us a 2nd round pick whilst Leuenberger and Suckling both were awarded an end of 2nd round pick for Brisbane and Hawthorn respectively - all picks in the late 30's. All players were given 3 year deals as far as I know (not certain on Suckling)

Anything less than $400k per year and I reckon the AFL will manipulate it to an end of 2nd round pick. Over $450k and it's hard to see how it can't be pick 22. Between $400-450k and it's toss a coin

Just my guess FWIW

Edit : There's also no point looking at any compo prior to last year as the compensation was watered down after Frawley got pick 3 for Melbourne

Nice work Keys, I agree with all of that. Especially the bit about the afl putting on the rubber gloves.

So what if Mayne goes for roughly what has been rumoured, and Z Clarke leaves for a similar free agency deal?

If Freo don't bring any free agents in, could the compensation be pooled and potentially yield pick 4 or end of first, or would 2 separate picks be awarded?

 

[Keys]

Nice work Keys, I agree with all of that. Especially the bit about the afl putting on the rubber gloves.

So what if Mayne goes for roughly what has been rumoured, and Z Clarke leaves for a similar free agency deal?

If Freo don't bring any free agents in, could the compensation be pooled and potentially yield pick 4 or end of first, or would 2 separate picks be awarded?

I don't really know tbh but as far as I can tell the compensation for each player is worked out separately - in 2013 Hawthorn lost both Franklin and Ellis to FA but only got a compensation pick for Buddy, nothing for Ellis. In 2012, Port and Melbourne both lost two players to FA and separate picks were awarded for each of the players they lost rather than aggregating them to get one higher pick.

That link seems to allow for a club to still get some compensation through FA if they lose a better player than they pick up but doesn't really address what happens if a club loses more than one player. Common sense would dictate that each player is treated separately but this is the AFL where common sense is a fluid concept.

TL;DR - separate picks are given. I think.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

It's based on the date the paperwork is lodged so it's conceivable, albeit very unlikely, that a difference in lodging the paperwork by a couple of days could change the compensation result. Have a look at birthdays in October 1990 for players that will turn 26 during the FA period.

You are probably correct

Just 1 question why do you constantly post on here?

Back on your board you bag out Freo. You have recently called our club a bunch of leaches with no history or identity.

**** off idiot

 

[Lach72]

Jesus Christ Jedi. Pull your head in

 

[Kram]

 

[wild side]

You are probably correct

Just 1 question why do you constantly post on here?

Back on your board you bag out Freo. You have recently called our club a bunch of leaches with no history or identity.

**** off idiot

Harsh Jedi, keyser is all good.
He's a very informative and reasonable poster, regardless of who he supports

 

[free at last]

You are probably correct

Just 1 question why do you constantly post on here?

Back on your board you bag out Freo. You have recently called our club a bunch of leaches with no history or identity.

**** off idiot

He's a freagle?

 

[Kram]

There's only one thing worse than a Freagle and that's flogs that have GWS as their '2nd' team.

 

[Silky32]

I don't really know tbh but as far as I can tell the compensation for each player is worked out separately - in 2013 Hawthorn lost both Franklin and Ellis to FA but only got a compensation pick for Buddy, nothing for Ellis. In 2012, Port and Melbourne both lost two players to FA and separate picks were awarded for each of the players they lost rather than aggregating them to get one higher pick.

That link seems to allow for a club to still get some compensation through FA if they lose a better player than they lost but doesn't really address what happens if a club loses more than one player. Common sense would dictate that each player is treated separately but this is the AFL where common sense is a fluid concept.

TL;DR - separate picks are given. I think.

Cheers mate

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Harsh Jedi, keyser is all good.
He's a very informative and reasonable poster, regardless of who he supports

Is he? He rips into us on west coast board and acts all nice and constantly posts on our board.

I have no objection to opposition posters but he's two faced

 

[Keys]

**** off idiot

That's the spirit

This is your board so what I post here reflects that

 

[Clems Knee]

That's the spirit

This is your board so what I post here reflects that

I'm still dark you had to change your avatar.
You were a lot more welcome before.

 

[Kram]

I did notice that for some reason Keyser seemed to disappear from here for a good few days a couple of weeks ago