Brayshaw and Cerra.

[gungho]

3rd year for the two young great white hopes.
Bit nervous that they aren't really showing the promise that belies their draft order and hype.
Lachie Neale was averaging about 25 touches by his third year (On round 3 the following year he had 42).
Possessions aren't everything, but I just don't know about these guys.
Brayshaw's kick seems to be too high, and Cerra, while a classier player, doesn't seem to quite have the eye of the tiger to me.
What's everyones thoughts?

 

[Purple_Turtle]

Ideally they'd be bonafide stars, but it's worth pointing out:

1. Neale in his 3rd year was in a side contending for a premiership, with some excellent players in the middle like Sandilands, Fyfe, Barlow, Crowley and the like easing pressure on him. Surely that has an impact?

2. Shortened quarters. I don't think these players are quite at Neales disposal level, but if you account for the difference in time on the field I think you'll find they're tracking fine. Particurarly with regards to Brayshaw playing limited minutes for some reason.

 

[Dirty_banchez]

I have lost faith. Just think what will happen when Fyfe and Sonny retire, we'll be anchored to the bottom of the ladder for decades.

I have lost faith

 

[freo1997]

Cerra looks to be a poor mans Elliot Yeo..which is Average. Has the build, sound skills and a footy brain, but he’s lacking the tenacity. I wouldn’t be against trading him in 2/3 years time if he’s not finding form and if he still has value in trade time.

Brayshaw for all his current flaws I still think he’s a Cotchin or at worse a Priddis in the making. He’s a bull, shows leadership and gut runner. He needs to polish up his kicks, but every team needs an extractor dishing out handballs getting the hard ball gets. If I had to put $ on any current docker besides Fyfe to get a brownlow in their career..it be him.

 

[tonygeeks]

Funny how the gloss wears off a lot of the overhyped Vic Metro superstars and they get caught and often overtaken by the kids from the other states when everything is equal

Hopefully I'm just jumping the gun because we need them to be good

 

[FD2646]

I think Cerra is showing some positive signs, especially since this has been the first year whereby he has acquired a full-time midfield opportunity. I think he showed intent tackling vs the bigger Port mids and got a bit of the pill. Additionally versus Brisbane he delivered a couple of absolute lace out passes to forwards which resulted in scores. Brayshaw however seems to have regressed, which I'm hoping is due to a slight injury he appears to be carrying.

 

[Ysaye]

Cerra looks to be a poor mans Elliot Yeo..which is Average. Has the build, sound skills and a footy brain, but he’s lacking the tenacity. I wouldn’t be against trading him in 2/3 years time if he’s not finding form and if he still has value in trade time.

Brayshaw for all his current flaws I still think he’s a Cotchin or at worse a Priddis in the making. He’s a bull, shows leadership and gut runner. He needs to polish up his kicks, but every team needs an extractor dishing out handballs getting the hard ball gets. If I had to put $ on any current docker besides Fyfe to get a brownlow in their career..it be him.

I don't see your player comparisons at all (apart from maybe Cotchin in terms of running style) and conclusions. In terms of the attributes:

Cerra - agree on the skills and brain, but honestly there are still questions on the build - not a bad build but he doesn't have the strength to slip out of tackles like he did as a junior and nor is he strong overhead marking. I don't think there is issues of tenacity but the endurance is not there yet. In fact Yeo has always had really good endurance which adds to the wierdness of that comparison.

Brayshaw - yes agree onleadership and gut running. Good defensive positioning and tackling as well but at the moment though he is not at an "extractor" or "ball magnet" level - he has never had more than 26 disposals in an AFL game; even Cerra has had a 30 possession game. So far his average possessions is the lowest of any of season he has played so far (bearing in mind small sample for this season atm, shorter quarters etc.).

Cerra's first season his disposal was ultra reliable (classy even) and he had good positioning particularly in the forward line or kicking into it. Last season I was impressed with Brayshaw's tackling and the impact in last quarters when everyone else was tiring.

Cerra did not look good as a defender and looked particularly vulnerable to fast moving small forwards on the offensive. He has also gone missing at times and the gap between his best and worst is large.

Brayshaw's kicking is very much a pyschological thing; of he is on he is on otherwise it can be painful to watch.

The string of hub games also makes it tough for both (and on all our players); I don't think it is fair at all to judge based on this season (also provides an advantage to the gold coast juniors). And maybe this hub thing will have some benefits longer term for away game form?

Lastly, there is a perception that Cerra is a "go home Victorian metro boy" and this emphasises some people's criticism of him - I suppose that was not helped by him taking time with his first contract extension (although we have had favourite players like Pav and Fyfe do this to us before). Brayshaw on the other hand gets the favor of "his family is from WA so we will call him A Vic WA" and that he extended his contract much quicker.

For mine the equation is still this:
Cerra needs to get up to an average of at least low 20s possession wise and then with his disposal he is well worth a pick 5. David Mundy is my rough benchmark for Cerra in that I see them as similar types and team benefits as efficient ball users; it took six seasons to get to that point). The possession numbers are down on last season but it is a compromised season and we know that he has improved his endurance and he has been more consistent with his numbers so those are positives. Valente is posited as an alternative (in terms of being an efficient midfield ball user) but honestly he is not even at the same park yet.

Brayshaw I was hoping for high 20s / 30s possession wise this season as a permanent rover; it hasn't happened (again bearing in mind the compromise) and that hurts the team. I don't know if there are injury concerns? If Serong comes in and starts getting possessions in the 20s then I would switch Brayshaw to the wing/flanks (Brayshaw has previously looked very good as a "plug the gaps" player) and run Serong as our rover instead for a while. The other one as other posters have pointed out is Blakely, but whatever Ross Lyon was not happy about, Longmuir also seems to not like about him, and I don't think his form in the reserves has helped his case either.

 

[blue shark]

The balance has just not been right with everyone looking to play offensive.
Even the positioning behind the ball, player is off.
For every Fyfe you need a Crowley type player to protect or
worry the opposition.
No point bringing Blakely into the mids to ball watch, run one way. We need a Serong, Valente or Banfield to do the heavy lifting.

 

[G Mus]

Look how bad Sydney Stack has looked this year with Richmond struggling

It’s hard to stand up in a shit side, especially when you are developing yourself so I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom even if Brayshaw does seem to be like a Liam Shiels clone

 

[Scham]

Both have shown tiny glimpses of top end developing talent but of course the more you play in the AFL and the bigger the role that you’re asked to do, the more homework the opposition put into you and the better the player assigned to you. They’re neither struggling with that nor coping brilliantly but more getting by.

At this stage they both project as good AFL players to me. Not stars or champions but good solid players and nowhere near as good as Neale.

 

[Freoforever86]

Ideally they'd be bonafide stars, but it's worth pointing out:

1. Neale in his 3rd year was in a side contending for a premiership, with some excellent players in the middle like Sandilands, Fyfe, Barlow, Crowley and the like easing pressure on him. Surely that has an impact?

2. Shortened quarters. I don't think these players are quite at Neales disposal level, but if you account for the difference in time on the field I think you'll find they're tracking fine. Particurarly with regards to Brayshaw playing limited minutes for some reason.

this is how I feel. I think Neale was helped by the fact we had stars in there at the time and he could just go about his business.

Cerra and Brayshaw have to go win their own ball against opposition star Mids with far bigger bodies atm. Not something many just pick up and do (Rowell the exception). Their was against Boak for large parts of Sunday and he’s a beast of a mid.

all I want out of Brayshaw is a bit cleaner hands and to work on his kicking. Cerra seems to be tracking pretty well, but decision making can be off.

the one I’m a little worried about us Tucker. 5th year mid now, should be tracking better. Started slowly, thought he was really poor against essendon especially with disposal. He’s disappeared after strong starts the last 2 games.

Tucker averaging 18d
Brayshaw averaging 15d
Cerra averaging 14d

With the shortened games, I’d still be expecting Tucker to be averaging 20, and Brayshaw/Cerra 18-20.
so all a little under where they should be, but not panic stations, especially playing some good sides.

 

[Bring back Drum]

Brayshaw has been on the field this season for between 2 & a half quarters & 3 at the most.(65-74% game time). Adam Cerra is playing 3 quarters of footy regularly.(around 75%)

They are being managed for burnout & to continue their education. They are not the finished product & are playing different roles to what they have in recent years.

You put Brayshaw in Gold Coasts team & he averages 25 this year because he doesn’t have Nat Fyfe to compete with at stoppages. Cerra gets 25 because Walters isn’t there. It’s all about opportunities. Who’s Rowley competing with?

They are being groomed as replacements not the main men for now. They’re tracking just fine.

 

[Scham]

Yep, Tucker is a different story. He strikes me as mentally deficient to become a good AFL player. Built like a brick shithouse and talented as all get out but needs to toughen up.

 

[Scham]

Brayshaw has been on the field this season for between 2 & a half quarters & 3 at the most.(65-74% game time). Adam Cerra is playing 3 quarters of footy regularly.(around 75%)

They are being managed for burnout & to continue their education. They are not the finished product & are playing different roles to what they have in recent years.

You put Brayshaw in Gold Coasts team & he averages 25 this year because he doesn’t have Nat Fyfe to compete with at stoppages. Cerra gets 25 because Walters isn’t there. It’s all about opportunities. Who’s Rowley competing with?

They are being groomed as replacements not the main men for now. They’re tracking just fine.

Interesting take on it.

Others are saying that Neale got so much of the ball because he had good midfielders around him but you’re saying that’s a disadvantage?

 

[Ausbenito]

The balance has just not been right with everyone looking to play offensive.
Even the positioning behind the ball, player is off.
For every Fyfe you need a Crowley type player to protect or
worry the opposition.
No point bringing Blakely into the mids to ball watch, run one way. We need a Serong, Valente or Banfield to do the heavy lifting.

If all the coaches are off Blakely why didnt we trade him? IMO he was tracking just as good as the other two if he went to a side such as Sydney am sure he would be a top player for them not so easy for these guys at the Dockers.
Really important we recruit another top midfielder or we could be in for alot of painful seasons whether that means trading younger high draft picks they need to make a decision sooner rather than later while Fyfe and Walters are still playing well.
Also believe Brayshaw has to be the defensive midfielder that is his best attributes being a run with player who can get a few possessions as well.

 

[Joao]

Neale is the second best accumulator in the comp. I would expect his numbers to be better at the same age given the player he is now.

 

[Nothing]

Brayshaw is tracking like his brother.

Andrew Brayshaw and Angus Brayshaw AFL Stats Comparison

Andrew Brayshaw and Angus Brayshaw AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Cerra has similar numbers to Marc Murphy.

Adam Cerra and Marc Murphy AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Marc Murphy AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Both Angus and Murphy developed into top class players. A bit of time and Cerra and Brayshaw will both be good players. Great? Time will tell but good at least.

 

[Bring back Drum]

Interesting take on it.

Others are saying that Neale got so much of the ball because he had good midfielders around him but you’re saying that’s a disadvantage?

Absolutely. Nat Fyfe’s role around stoppages is to win the ball & extract it. We all know this & he said as much in his Brownlow speech. He doesn’t have to worry about an opponent.

You take him out & have to use Brayshaw more as the main inside mid, his numbers go up. It’s all about opportunities. He is the 3rd choice at the moment behind Fyfe & Tucker.

Time on ground stats this year.
Fyfe 92-95%
Tucker 72-84%
Brayshaw 65-74%.

Brayshaw just needs to learn to spread a bit quicker & to the right spots to up his numbers.

Cerra is different. He’s only 3 games in to a midfield role at AFL level. He needs time to sort his role, but I like where he is heading.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Brayshaw is tracking like his brother.

Andrew Brayshaw and Angus Brayshaw AFL Stats Comparison

Andrew Brayshaw and Angus Brayshaw AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Cerra has similar numbers to Marc Murphy.

Adam Cerra and Marc Murphy AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Marc Murphy AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Both Angus and Murphy developed into top class players. A bit of time and Cerra and Brayshaw will both be good players. Great? Time will tell but good at least.

Both very good comparisons I think.

Neither really look like they will be elite mids of the competition but still tracking well to hit A grade status IMO.

Brayshaw's TOG% baffles me a bit given his much touted endurance.

 

[Take my logue]

Brayshaw is carrying something. Look at his time on ground stats. Cerra has looked good this year for mine. Nothing to worry about at this stage.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Both very good comparisons I think.

Neither really look like they will be elite mids of the competition but still tracking well to hit A grade status IMO.

Brayshaw's TOG% baffles me a bit given his much touted endurance.

He has a sore calf last match, and only played 60% of the game.

 

[ImperialPurple]

Cerra looks to be a poor mans Elliot Yeo..which is Average. Has the build, sound skills and a footy brain, but he’s lacking the tenacity. I wouldn’t be against trading him in 2/3 years time if he’s not finding form and if he still has value in trade time.

Brayshaw for all his current flaws I still think he’s a Cotchin or at worse a Priddis in the making. He’s a bull, shows leadership and gut runner. He needs to polish up his kicks, but every team needs an extractor dishing out handballs getting the hard ball gets. If I had to put $ on any current docker besides Fyfe to get a brownlow in their career..it be him.

Elliot Yeo was average at 20. At best. Most people thought he was ‘just another HBF’. A few years in the gym, a few pre-seasons and a bunch of experience later and he’s dual AA and has reached the level of a poor-man’s Fyfe. If our guys get to poor-man’s Fyfe level, we’ll have done bloody well.
And why trade Cerra unless he wants to go?? So we can get a late first, early second draft pick and get another 18yo, just as Cerra’s entering his prime. In two years he’ll Be 22 and have close to 100 games (barring injury ). Can’t understand What the logic would be behind trading him.

 

[Joao]

People putting a line through them now are the ones who probably would have delisted Mundy at 21.

 

[Dale147]

He has a sore calf last match, and only played 60% of the game.

Yes, he went in with a corkie to his calf.

 

[eastfreo75]

3rd year for the two young great white hopes.
Bit nervous that they aren't really showing the promise that belies their draft order and hype.
Lachie Neale was averaging about 25 touches by his third year (On round 3 the following year he had 42).
Possessions aren't everything, but I just don't know about these guys.
Brayshaw's kick seems to be too high, and Cerra, while a classier player, doesn't seem to quite have the eye of the tiger to me.
What's everyones thoughts?

Neale was drafted at 19.

We need to wait another year to compare with Neale.