Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 2)

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Well Ill be keen on a guide come Monday the 21st so that would be great if you could. Also I dont quite understand the bolded and would it be possible to share (or PM) how much you put on the quinella of Cooney-Black last year @ $130..

I had $1100 on the Cooney-Black quinella at $130 last year.

When you are trying to put an amount like that on the TAB has the computer set not to allow the bet and they then ring the TAB to see if it's real and change the odds before taking the bet ( or let you on only for a little bit ). For that reason I fill out a Black-Cooney quinella ticket for $20 and then reach over the counter, grab the ticket and slide it thru again. Obviously last year on that bet I repeated it 55 times.

 

[George Washington]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I had $1100 on the Cooney-Black quinella at $130 last year.

Obviously last year on that bet I repeated it 55 times.

Thats dedication right there.

 

[Geeves Train]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

haha ironic that you say no comment in your actual comment, okay so next question, how much did you win in 2008?

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

haha ironic that you say no comment in your actual comment, okay so next question, how much did you win in 2008?

Cheeky ! I just showed in a post that I won $143k on 1 bet alone which surely tells you a fair bit. If you check my posts last Sept you will see that i was on Cooney to win, Black to lead half way and that i landed a number of club multi bets - if it wasn't for Hayes rolling Riewoldt I would have been massively rich last year. I vowed to study harder and leave no stone unturned in 2009.

 

[twarby]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

all those who are saying lecras or fevola are shoe ins for their group..im interested to know how many votes you expect them to be on if you dont rate tredreas chances seeing most have him on 9(i dont however)
just curious

 

[Geeves Train]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Cheeky ! I just showed in a post that I won $143k on 1 bet alone which surely tells you a fair bit. If you check my posts last Sept you will see that i was on Cooney to win, Black to lead half way and that i landed a number of club multi bets - if it wasn't for Hayes rolling Riewoldt I would have been massively rich last year. I vowed to study harder and leave no stone unturned in 2009.

True but it also seems like you have had literally 1000's of bets and they havent been small value so I am genuinely interested in how much you have put on and what return per unit you are looking at.

Don't I wish i could have 55 tickets each paying $2600,

 

[The GOAT]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

BK what is your take on Vince/Gibbs/Clark in the groups?
Seems like a few of us are keen on this

 

[twarby]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

BK what is your take on Vince/Gibbs/Clark in the groups?
Seems like a few of us are keen on this

FWIW i dont like the ruckman group at all and i think people are over estimating clark.i cant see him getting more than 6
BK would know best he has studied brisebane quite a bit

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Very interesting read regarding your bets BK. 30 tickets for selwood at half way, geez you’d be cheering if he gets up…

I was wondering if you knew off the top of your head the point in payouts that the TAB have to write a check rather than just hand over cash? I have been doing as you have and filling out multiple tickets with smaller stakes to try and avoid this if of course i have the kind of results I’m hoping for.

I'd also be interested in roughly what percentage your investment in the Brownlow has increased this year over last year? I recall reading one of your posts talking about betting in one of the years that Harvey won so you've obviously been at it for quite a while, I’d be interested in knowing how much of an increase in stakes you've been willing to outlay since then

Cheers for the posts anyway, like most i take more on board from your word than anyone else on here, although I have my own pretty strong views that haven't moved too far as well. Black is one that you've almost pulled me around on, i was never doubting his chances to win the Brisbane group, or the medal for that matter, but i wasn’t sure enough to include him in any of my multi's up until yesterday when he snuck into a few. Previous to that I’d just kept clear of the Brisbane group.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

BK what is your take on Vince/Gibbs/Clark in the groups?
Seems like a few of us are keen on this

I think that Vince is a moral to win his group. He should be $1.20. I think that Gibbs will probably win but rate Pendlebury a danger. I actually have Pendle on 14.25 and Gibbs 13.7 so maybe save on Pendle. I actually put Pendle in a few more multis than Gibbs.

Re Clark I think no go at all ! I know he had a great year and i watched Bris a lot 9 due to my S Black liking ) but I have him on 5 votes only...he can only poll in the lat 3 round so may well be on 0 after R18. Like others have indicated I wouldn't touch the ruck group and have Cox in front on 7 but I had nothing on it.

Go for Selwood ( save Hayes ), Okeefe ( save Goodwin ), Sewell ( save Edwards ),Thompson, Pavlich or Ablett ( small ave Boyd ) who I think can all win their group and leave out the ruckmen. Leave out the one with all the medal favs as well as too hard.

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I think that Vince is a moral to win his group. He should be $1.20. I think that Gibbs will probably win but rate Pendlebury a danger. I actually have Pendle on 14.25 and Gibbs 13.7 so maybe save on Pendle. I actually put Pendle in a few more multis than Gibbs.

Re Clark I think no go at all ! I know he had a great year and i watched Bris a lot 9 due to my S Black liking ) but I have him on 5 votes only...he can only poll in the lat 3 round so may well be on 0 after R18. Like others have indicated I wouldn't touch the ruck group and have Cox in front on 7 but I had nothing on it.

Go for Selwood ( save Hayes ), Okeefe ( save Goodwin ), Sewell ( save Edwards ),Thompson, Pavlich or Ablett ( small ave Boyd ) who I think can all win their group and leave out the ruckmen. Leave out the one with all the medal favs as well as too hard.

agree strongly with nearly everything here, especially the vince group! easy money there... regarding the highlighted group above though you dont consider higgins a threat at all? i also see Bartel a threat in the Thompson group

 

[The GOAT]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

cheers BK, won't touch the rucks

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Very interesting read regarding your bets BK. 30 tickets for selwood at half way, geez you’d be cheering if he gets up…

I was wondering if you knew off the top of your head the point in payouts that the TAB have to write a check rather than just hand over cash? I have been doing as you have and filling out multiple tickets with smaller stakes to try and avoid this if of course i have the kind of results I’m hoping for.

I'd also be interested in roughly what percentage your investment in the Brownlow has increased this year over last year? I recall reading one of your posts talking about betting in one of the years that Harvey won so you've obviously been at it for quite a while, I’d be interested in knowing how much of an increase in stakes you've been willing to outlay since then

Cheers for the posts anyway, like most i take more on board from your word than anyone else on here, although I have my own pretty strong views that haven't moved too far as well. Black is one that you've almost pulled me around on, i was never doubting his chances to win the Brisbane group, or the medal for that matter, but i wasn’t sure enough to include him in any of my multi's up until yesterday when he snuck into a few. Previous to that I’d just kept clear of the Brisbane group.

No rule re when the TAB give a cheque and I've had quite a few from Brownlow ( mostly ) and horse racing. Normally over $10k a cheque is mandatory but many TABS will pay out $7-8k or so, some might only have a few thousand on them. Ask before collecting is the key.

I first really bet on the medal in 1997 when Harvey won ( wasn't earning much prior to that ). I won $25k on him and $80k on multis at IASBET ( pretty sure they were called Darwin allports then ). They put up how many votes players would get and you got $1.90 for higher or lower...i.e. Hocking 15.5 and I went higher. I took a 4 leg, 6 leg and 8 leg multi and got all 8 right. Only placed 4 bets tht year with $2k on Harvey and $650 on multis. All bookies stopped all sorts of multis on the Brownlow from that day until a couple of years ago when the TAB introduced them. Still now sportingbet, IASBET, Sportsbet won't take Brownlow multis.

From then until 2007 I had about $3-5k on the medal in total every year. last year I cranked it up considerably and thi year have gone absolutely nuts. I've always been a solid punter and am happy to use their money to have a good crack this year.

I'm glad I steered you into Black..when you think of him remember that it's a best and FAIREST award which everyone seems to forget.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

agree strongly with nearly everything here, especially the vince group! easy money there... regarding the highlighted group above though you dont consider higgins a threat at all? i also see Bartel a threat in the Thompson group

Higgins I have potentially polling in 6 games only and have him on 4.75. Okeefe always worries me as a vote getter but has had a v good year and I'd be surprised if he polled less than 8.
I have Bartel 10.25 vs Thompson 14.5.

 

[twarby]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

BK - how many votes do you have watson, thompson, davis, sewell, and edwards on if you dont mind me asking.

i really like davis and watson to win there groups and chucked on this multi today along witha string of others

1. DAVIS (group10) VINCE(group6) WATSON(group5) GIBBS(group4) ABLETT(group2) = 217/1

but you have made me re think davis, watson and to a lesser extent gibbs

i havnt done any savers yet for this multi, which group do you think i should worry about the most, or perhaps saver watsons and davis with sewell, edwards and thompson.
for what its worth i have watson on around 14-16 and davis around 13

 

[AG]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Haha, BK is getting buried with questions. Brownlow King was a good choice of name.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Hey Blacky, I keep analysing all of my data and I have concluded that our old mate S. Black can win the medal. I have him finishing on 25-28 votes and reckon that he will be very hard to catch around that mark. I actually have him landing on 28.

Black is now my outright pick to win the medal ( in a very tight count ). Anyone who still rates Brown a chance to beat him for the Bris votes had better stop betting immediately. The market there should be Black $1.05, Brown $6.

I still conclude that the only player's who can win the medal are Black, Judd, Selwood ( that's my top 3 ), Ablett ( 4th ) and to a lesser extent Goodes and Hayes. Boyd is the smokey but I'm pretty sure that around 20 is his mark.

I have all of the above guys going for plenty and am very confident that I have the winner covered and I have all quinella options covered ( no Boyd though who I note is in the TAB quinella markets now ). I am going to put more on options involving Black into all of my guys, particulrly into Selwood and Judd but also Goodes, Ablett, Hayes, Boyd and I will drag myself to put him into Swan just in case there is a miracle. Black owes me nothing from last year and I am confident he can run top 2.
I can't do trifectas as like last year the TAB have left Black out and I want him in top 3 options for sure.

Swan, Goddard, Dalsanto, Montagna, Riewoldt can't win and I think that around the 20 mark will be the max that any of those 3 can poll.

Black is the one who is over the odds and is so reliable on the night that I am very comfortable with my top pick. if any of you aren't aware you should be of the following :

Bris has won a combined total of 18 wins in 2007/08 combined. Black polled Brownlow votes in 14 of those wins and 10 games were 3 votes !!!! 3 games were 2 votes and 1 game was 1 vote. He was runner up in the medal both years and is a previous winner.

In 2009 Black has played in 12 games and a draw which is well up on the ave of the past 2 and I am certain he will poll votes ( 2 min in each ) in the 6 point loss to Carl and the 18 point loss to the dogs. I think he will poll in 10 of the wins and am pretty sure that he will poll in the draw. IMO he's had atleast as good a year this year as the past 2 and he starts slowly and finishes strongly this year vs what he did last year.

I know that my views are strong but I have put in the work and feel that I need to stick my neck out and select a top pick.

Good luck to all and let's hope that collectively we bowl over the TAB and the bookies !

Haha, I love that outcome

Too bad we ca't get Black trifectas...stupid limited options TAB. A Black-Selwood-Judd trifecta would be huge.

Quinellas are good enough though.

On that advice, I put down Black/Judd and Black/Selwood quins, and going to do some coupled with Geelong/Saints quin to boost value.

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

No rule re when the TAB give a cheque and I've had quite a few from Brownlow ( mostly ) and horse racing. Normally over $10k a cheque is mandatory but many TABS will pay out $7-8k or so, some might only have a few thousand on them. Ask before collecting is the key.

I first really bet on the medal in 1997 when Harvey won ( wasn't earning much prior to that ). I won $25k on him and $80k on multis at IASBET ( pretty sure they were called Darwin allports then ). They put up how many votes players would get and you got $1.90 for higher or lower...i.e. Hocking 15.5 and I went higher. I took a 4 leg, 6 leg and 8 leg multi and got all 8 right. Only placed 4 bets tht year with $2k on Harvey and $650 on multis. All bookies stopped all sorts of multis on the Brownlow from that day until a couple of years ago when the TAB introduced them. Still now sportingbet, IASBET, Sportsbet won't take Brownlow multis.

From then until 2007 I had about $3-5k on the medal in total every year. last year I cranked it up considerably and thi year have gone absolutely nuts. I've always been a solid punter and am happy to use their money to have a good crack this year.

I'm glad I steered you into Black..when you think of him remember that it's a best and FAIREST award which everyone seems to forget.

haha yea he is exactly the kind of player i'd usually be onto in a second for brownlow bets. I'm huge on polling history and the players attitude and behavior during games, especially towards the umpires. The main reason i think that i wasn't on him previously is because i'm in SA and don't have foxtel and they've televised probably less than half of the Brisbane games here this year. the games that they have shown have been pretty much all of Browns best games for the season and black has been a little less prominent. I do read as much media based reports on the games that i dont see as i can, but that takes a very distant back seat to the games i actually see myself. If this year goes in the same direction as the last 5 have in results for me i think its fair to say i'll have foxtel for the beginning of next season and will be watching every game...

 

[PieGal]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

The bet you have placed should be a $15 chance !! Something ( like Mclean ) will probably go wrong but by golly the odds are absolutely unbelievable. Where on earth did you get on at odds of $110,000 ?? Everywhere I bet won't allow price to exceed $3000.
Good luck !

If your bet lands you can add a 0 on the end of the collect for what I'll win.

Placed it on Monday online with Sportsbet...Just read their fineprint though and the maximum they will pay out on a Multi is 100,000 so it looks like I cost myself an extra dollar unecessarily if it comes off

I will be sending lots of good karma your way BK if it happens!

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Got on Patrick Ryder to be top Essendon top vote getter at $26.00

Yes Jobe Watson and Stanton are favourites, but at 26, its worth a go here for sure.

 

[twarby]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Got on Patrick Ryder to be top Essendon top vote getter at $26.00

Yes Jobe Watson and Stanton are favourites, but at 26, its worth a go here for sure.

can only see ryder polling in a few games no chance of getting more than 8

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

What do people think about the West Coast leading vote gettor?

Mark Le Cras $6.00 (had probably 6 voteable games)

19 disps (12 kicks 7 hballs), 6 marks and 5 goals in Rd 22 80-pt win over Richmond at Subiaco (28 Aug 2009)

23 disps (17 kicks 6 hballs), 6 marks and 3 goals in Rd 19 5-pt win over the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium (8 Aug 2009)

26 disps (13 kicks 13 hballs), 8 marks and 3 goals in Rd 18 27-pt win over Essendon at Subiaco (2 Aug 2009)

22 disps (15 kicks 7 hballs), 9 marks and 3 goals in Rd 12 15-pt loss to Richmond at Etihad Stadium (13 Jun 2009)

22 disps (18 kicks 4 hballs), 8 marks and 4 goals in Rd 7 8-pt win over Melbourne at Subiaco (10 May 2009)

14 disps (11 kicks 3 hballs), 7 marks and 6 goals in Rd 1 9-pt loss to Brisbane at the Gabba (28 Mar 2009)


Adam Selwood $2.40

29 disps (12 kicks 17 hballs), 4 marks and 4 tackles in Rd 21 74-pt loss to Adelaide at AAMI Stadium (22 Aug 2009)

33 disps (19 kicks 14 hballs), 4 marks and a goal in Rd 20 38-pt win over North Melbourne at Subiaco (15 Aug 2009)

29 disps (12 kicks 17 hballs), 4 marks and 4 tackles in Rd 18 27-pt win over Essendon at Subiaco (2 Aug 2009)

28 disps (10 kicks 18 hballs), 5 marks, 6 tackles and a goal in Rd 17 5-pt loss to Fremantle at Subiaco (25 Jul 2009)

29 disps (16 kicks 13 hballs) and 4 marks in Rd 15 20-pt loss to St Kilda at Subiaco (12 Jul 2009)

26 disps (15 kicks 11 hballs) and 9 marks in Rd 9 22-pt loss to Collingwood at Subiaco (23 May 2009)

22 disps (15 kicks 7 hballs), 7 marks, 5 tackles and a goal in Rd 7 8-pt win over Melbourne at Subiaco (10 May 2009)

25 disps (15 kicks 10 hballs), 5 marks and 4 tackles in Rd 5 18-pt loss to Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium (25 Apr 2009)

27 disps (14 kicks 13 hballs), 3 marks and a goal in Rd 4 33-pt win over the Western Bulldogs at Subiaco (19 Apr 2009)

33 disps (16 kicks 17 hballs), 8 marks, 5 tackles and a goal in Rd 2 50-pt win over Port Adelaide at Subiaco (5 Apr 2009)

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Matt Priddis $4.25


27 disps (10 kicks 17 hballs), 6 tackles and 2 goals in Rd 20 38-pt win over North Melbourne at Subiaco (15 Aug 2009)

35 disps (9 kicks 26 hballs), 3 marks and 4 tackles in Rd 18 27-pt win over Essendon at Subiaco (2 Aug 2009)

23 disps (11 kicks 12 hballs), 4 marks, 8 tackles and a goal in Rd 17 5-pt loss to Fremantle at Subiaco (25 Jul 2009)

35 disps (6 kicks 29 hballs), 4 marks and 7 tackles in Rd 13 20-pt win over Hawthorn at Subiaco (27 Jun 2009)

33 disps (16 kicks 17 hballs), 7 marks, 7 tackles and a goal in Rd 12 15-pt loss to Richmond at Etihad Stadium (13 Jun 2009)

26 disps (13 kicks 13 hballs), 5 marks and 8 tackles in Rd 6 13-pt loss to Fremantle at Subiaco (2 May 2009)

32 disps (17 kicks 15 hballs), 3 marks, 10 tackles and a goal in Rd 5 18-pt loss to Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium (25 Apr 2009)

30 disps (12 kicks 18 hballs), 4 marks and 10 tackles in Rd 3 97-pt loss to St Kilda at Etihad Stadium (11 Apr 2009)

29 disps (16 kicks 13 hballs) in Rd 1 9-pt loss to Brisbane at the Gabba (28 Mar 2009



Dean Cox $6.50

30 disps (11 kicks 19 hballs), 7 marks, 32 hitouts and a goal in Rd 11 22-pt loss to Geelong at Subiaco (7 Jun 2009)

22 disps (13 kicks 9 hballs), 6 marks, 4 tackles, 30 hitouts and 2 goals in Rd 8 5-pt loss to Sydney at ANZ Stadium (16 May 2009)

23 disps (10 kicks 13 hballs), 8 marks, 27 hitouts and a goal in Rd 7 8-pt win over Melbourne at Subiaco (10 May 2009)

24 disps (16 kicks 8 hballs), 7 marks and 19 hitouts in Rd 6 13-pt loss to Fremantle at Subiaco (2 May 2009)

30 disps (15 kicks 15 hballs), 9 marks and 31 hitouts in Rd 5 18-pt loss to Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium (25 Apr 2009)

25 disps (12 kicks 13 hballs), 6 marks and 31 hitouts in Rd 4 33-pt win over the Western Bulldogs at Subiaco (19 Apr 2009)

24 disps (14 kicks 10 hballs), 9 marks and 27 hitouts in Rd 3 97-pt loss to St Kilda at Etihad Stadium (11 Apr 2009)

21 disps (8 kicks 13 hballs), 6 marks, 23 hitouts and 2 goals in Rd 2 50-pt win over Port Adelaide at Subiaco (5 Apr 2009)

23 disps (14 kicks 9 hballs), 26 hitouts and a goal in Rd 1 9-pt loss to Brisbane at the Gabba (28 Mar 2009)

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

For some reason i think Dean Cox might be a sniff here, but ive laid him at 6.60 on Betfair originally thinking he had no hope.


I still think Priddis is a good shot here at 4.25 watched his games closely throughout the season and he is a good honest toiler. Le Cras probably hasnt done enough and playing small forward doesnt appeal to umpires unless they kick a bag.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Group A
Dane Swan 3.50
Dal santo 4.75
Goodes 4.75
Judd 4.75
Black 6.50
Mitchell 6.50

Group B
Ablett 1.30
Goddard 4.50
Boyd 8.00
Murphy 26
J brown 31
Didak 31

early thoughts?

Swan at 3.50 looks like money for jam. And i fancy one of the other 5 boys to beat Ablett in group B. Lay of 1.30 max bet here