Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 2)

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Re-done my analysis on the Lions team votes.
I ended up with Brown and Black tied on 16 +/- 2 votes.

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

hey, ive done some multis with judd, goodes, black, boyd, vince, deledio and tredrea. I've covered vince with thompson and tredrea with pearce and players not quoted. Does everyone think one of these is a good chance to get up? Thanks

 

[carlton2007]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

who does everyone think will poll in the most matches?

 

[banta]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

i think swan will poll in the most matches personally.

regarding players with good polling history. in particular Judd, Black and Goodes. i have each judd and goodes leading their team votes but not by much over o'keefe and gibbs and murphy respectively, and black about the same as brown.

am i being persuaded too much by their polling history or should i judge the year on its merits, and not neccessarily give the other blokes the edge because they have won the medal before?
cheers

 

[banta]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

also, i saw early on that a few people had money on brad sewell. for those who watched him closely, how many votes did you have him polling around??
is brent harvey really that easliy a lock?? didnt see too many kangaroos games so i'm not confident with him, especially at his price. seeking some peace of mind, as i would love at least one leg of a multi i am confidet in.

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

who does everyone think will poll in the most matches?

Im thinking Selwood then maybe hayes/montagna then swan

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

i think swan will poll in the most matches personally.

regarding players with good polling history. in particular Judd, Black and Goodes. i have each judd and goodes leading their team votes but not by much over o'keefe and gibbs and murphy respectively, and black about the same as brown.

am i being persuaded too much by their polling history or should i judge the year on its merits, and not neccessarily give the other blokes the edge because they have won the medal before?
cheers

i think you are on the right path by considering polling history in allocating your votes. there are players that poll well year to year (goodes, kerr, black ect) that you can safely factor in will get more votes than expected where as players with poor polling history (rievolt, goodwin, kornes) will get less. studying the history and trends is a huge part of brownlow betting in my opinion.

regarding your question about harvey i'm not sure i'd get on him now, there is a chance that petire and even possibly swallow could roll him. he should win, but he's not 100% home yet... i've got plenty of multi's through him so i'll be cheering him home, but i wont touch him again at $1.15 or whatever he's at now. black is probably your best be as a team group multi, in the other groups vince in a near certainty! at $2.50 make sure you get plenty through him!

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

There is no way Swan is money for jam in that group - take on Black, Goodes and Judd at your own peril. I'd leave the group alone. Ablett a good thing to win his group and he and Vince should be used as anchors.

Vince-Ablett-Selwood = $8.13
Vince-Ablett-Hayes = $21.13 as a save

That's what I call money for jam !!!

What groups are Hayes and Selwood from? The one containing Montagna/Volt/Chapman/S Johnson?

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

What groups are Hayes and Selwood from? The one containing Montagna/Volt/Chapman/S Johnson?

Yeah thats the one,

SELWOOD Joel (GEEL) 2.50
MONTAGNA Leigh (STK) 3.25
RIEWOLDT Nick (STK) 4.25
HAYES Lenny (STK) 6.50
CHAPMAN Paul (GEEL) 11.00
JOHNSON Steve (GEEL) 34.00

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Yeah thats the one,

SELWOOD Joel (GEEL) 2.50
MONTAGNA Leigh (STK) 3.25
RIEWOLDT Nick (STK) 4.25
HAYES Lenny (STK) 6.50
CHAPMAN Paul (GEEL) 11.00
JOHNSON Steve (GEEL) 34.00

Interesting

I think Montagna is a big chance there too.

Definitely like GAJ/VINCE though at $3.20.

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Interesting

I think Montagna is a big chance there too.

Definitely like GAJ/VINCE though at $3.20.

Yeah I think Selwood should just win but Hayes/Motagna will be close.

Yeah I agree with GAJ/Vince. Gibbs should probably win his group as well.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Just got on Bernie Vince to win his group at $2.50

Selections: 5221 VINCE Bernie (ADEL) Bet Type: Fixed Odds Sports Win Bet Amount: $ 190.00
Price: 2.50 Ticket Value: $475.00 Total Cost:
$190.00

Vince 2.50
Montagna 3.25
Riewoldt 4.25
Hayes 6.50
Chapman 11.00
Steve Johnson 34.00


think the only danger here is montagna. but happily to take vince here. Saints players should take votes away from each other.

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Just got on Bernie Vince to win his group at $2.50

Selections: 5221 VINCE Bernie (ADEL) Bet Type: Fixed Odds Sports Win Bet Amount: $ 190.00
Price: 2.50 Ticket Value: $475.00 Total Cost:
$190.00

Vince 2.50
Montagna 3.25
Riewoldt 4.25
Hayes 6.50
Chapman 11.00
Steve Johnson 34.00


think the only danger here is montagna. but happily to take vince here. Saints players should take votes away from each other.

I'd be very worried about hayes. You should have taken vince in group 4 on TAB. He is $2.50 against
Rich $5
Adam Selwood $6
Hodge $6.50
Akermanis $6.50
Haselby $7

I think this would have been a much better bet

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Just got on Bernie Vince to win his group at $2.50

Selections: 5221 VINCE Bernie (ADEL) Bet Type: Fixed Odds Sports Win Bet Amount: $ 190.00
Price: 2.50 Ticket Value: $475.00 Total Cost:
$190.00

Vince 2.50
Montagna 3.25
Riewoldt 4.25
Hayes 6.50
Chapman 11.00
Steve Johnson 34.00


think the only danger here is montagna. but happily to take vince here. Saints players should take votes away from each other.

Hey, I think you have the wrong players there isn't this Vince's group?

VINCE Bernie (ADEL) 2.50
RICH Daniel (BL) 5.00
SELWOOD Adam (WCE) 6.00
AKERMANIS Jason (WBDS) 6.50
HODGE Luke (HAW) 6.50
HASLEBY Paul (FREM) 7.00

I think the group you've put is Selwoods. I think Vince will win his group anyway.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

yeh sorry your right, posted wrong players (its been a long day)

Vince 2.50
Rich 5.00
Selwood 6.00
Akermanis 6.50
Hodge 6.50
Haselby 7.00

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

^^ Thats if you put it on at the TAB, i presumed you did because it's that sportsbet number for Vince in his group at the TAB

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

yeh sorry your right, posted wrong players (its been a long day)

Vince 2.50
Rich 5.00
Selwood 6.00
Akermanis 6.50
Hodge 6.50
Haselby 7.00

thats ok then its a very good bet, one ill be putting on myself, probably multi it with black most votes brissy

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

thats ok then its a very good bet, one ill be putting on myself, probably multi it with black most votes brissy

I think you can only multi within the groups, because i tried to do one with most club votes but i couldn't do it.

I ended up doing Vince-Gibbs-Selwood.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Andrew Swallow and Petrie in my opinion will be the leaders for North Melbourne. brent Harvey is far too short. Missed half of the season and thats enough for me , to suggest bet on the others top North Melbourne Vote getters

Selections: 3954 Players Not Quoted Bet Type: Fixed Odds Sports Win Bet Amount: $ 95.00
Price: 10.00 Ticket Value: $950.00
I personally think Andrew Swallow will win it. thats paying $10 at TAB under 'Any other player'

Harvey 1.15
McIntosh 9.00
Petrie 9.00
Any other Player 10.00
Simpson 41.00
Hale 101.00

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Harvey at 1.15 is a very very low price and I wouldnt put it in a multi of any sort.


I can see him polling maximum of 10 votes but no more.
He has 8 pollable games for me, 2 of those were losses by more than 6 goals.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Port Adelaide Leading vote gettor:

Kane Cornes 2.75
Player Unquoted 4.25
Cassisi 4.50
Tredrea 5.50
Pearce 6.00
Chad Cornes 17

Cassisi for me is the play here at $4.50. Was suprised to see him 3rd favourite for this. Kane Cornes has a horrible record at brownlow nights. He is traditionally not a good vote gettor of the umps

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Adelaide - Most Brownlow Votes 21 Sep 2009
Dead Heat Rule Applies, Suspended Players Are Eligible,

Straight

Scott Thompson 3.00
Bernie Vince 3.25
Any Other Individual Player 4.25
Tyson Edwards 5.00
Simon Goodwin 11.00
Kurt Tippett 29.00

Surely no one would be close to vince and thompson and both at $3.00 or more, easy profit to be made here i would have thought.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I really like Akermanis to be leading Dogs top vote gettor, at $21.00 is also a good longshot. The games where they won he kicked 4,4,4,5 goals and had a ton of the ball. BUt i believe he can poll at most 7 matches. WOuldnt be suprised if he could get 9-12 votes for those 4 games by itself

Western Bulldogs - Most Votes


21-9-2009 18:30AEST



Most Votes Matthew Boyd 1.35 Adam Cooney 6.00 Any Other Player Not Quoted 7.50 Brian Lake 14.00 Brad Johnson 16.00 Jason Akermanis 21.00 Ryan Griffen 51.00 Lindsay Gilbee 51.00 Shaun Higgins 81.00

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Andrew Swallow and Petrie in my opinion will be the leaders for North Melbourne. brent Harvey is far too short. Missed half of the season and thats enough for me , to suggest bet on the others top North Melbourne Vote getters

Selections: 3954 Players Not Quoted Bet Type: Fixed Odds Sports Win Bet Amount: $ 95.00
Price: 10.00 Ticket Value: $950.00
I personally think Andrew Swallow will win it. thats paying $10 at TAB under 'Any other player'

Harvey 1.15
McIntosh 9.00
Petrie 9.00
Any other Player 10.00
Simpson 41.00
Hale 101.00

Im taking this one too, with petrie as back up

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Port Adelaide Leading vote gettor:

Kane Cornes 2.75
Player Unquoted 4.25
Cassisi 4.50
Tredrea 5.50
Pearce 6.00
Chad Cornes 17

Cassisi for me is the play here at $4.50. Was suprised to see him 3rd favourite for this. Kane Cornes has a horrible record at brownlow nights. He is traditionally not a good vote gettor of the umps

Im on tredrea here. I got on him at $10 on centrebet, although I think he is in to $8 or $9 now. Ive multied him in with LeCras most votes WestCoast. I think he will will get 8 or 9 votes and I think that is enough to win ports