Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 2)

[TassieSaint]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

If Judd goes for eye gouging, will that make him inelligable?

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Hey Guys
I see the tigers brownlow leader as a two man race,
but how confident are we that Deledio will take it out over cousins?
As cousins has some juicy odds!

Going by stats and what i have seen,
lots of delids best games have been in losses, bar 2 or so.

Where as Cousins has had two clear games where he should get 5-6 in their wins over melb and ess,
and most likely the 2 votes in the loss v Carlton.

I know deledio has been better than cousins all round ... but i have a feeling that he may just pick up too many small 1 votes in the losses and a possible bog in one of his games, which could make it a close one!

Do any have him projected to clear 8 - 9 votes?,
as i think 9 would get over Cousins!
But i can't really make much comment, as i have not done some deep analysis like some here!

Also with West Coast,
lots of talk on selwood or lecras .. but priddis has been good aswell.
Does he feature a chance, or is money best bet placed on lecras at his good odds?

Priddis/Cox/Embley/Le cras/Selwood - all have hopes.
Cox showed he didn't poll last year so I have taken him out.
The other 4 will be very close.
I don't think Embley/Priddis will score over 7 though.
I have Le cras and Selwood even and just ahead.
Pretty confident it will be a two horse race up the top.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

If Judd goes for eye gouging, will that make him inelligable?

I would have thought so.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I would have thought so.

I'm pretty sure only suspensions during the regular season count.
So even if Judd headbutted the umpire during the finals, he would still be eligible for the Brownlow.

 

[Carlton Kid]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Had a chuckle at this for an 8 leg multi in the team votes

Ade - Vince
Car - Murphy
Ess - Watson
Fre - Pavlich
Gee - Selwood
Melb - Player not quoted (McLean)
Nth - Harvey
Port - Pearce
Rich - Player not quoted (Cousins)
St.K - Hayes
WCE - Lecras

$5 bet comes out as $11,126,362.50

Not bad as looking at the above that could in fact happen. Not too unrealistic.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

looks very possible carlton kid, although you will deifnately lose it on selwood beating ablett for geelong. ablett has too many games where he will poll 3 and 2.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Team Votes:

Vince
Black
Judd
Watson
Ablett
Mitchell
Harvey
Goodes
Boyd
Lecras

10 @ 100.10 = 1001

Any chance???

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Its a chance yes.

You could say

Vince 1/2 chance
Watson 1/2
Harvey 1/3
LeCras 1/2
Ablett 1/2

All the others are locks for me. Although some would consider Boyd and Black in danger.

 

[tarky]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Had a chuckle at this for an 8 leg multi in the team votes

Ade - Vince
Car - Murphy
Ess - Watson
Fre - Pavlich
Gee - Selwood
Melb - Player not quoted (McLean)
Nth - Harvey
Port - Pearce
Rich - Player not quoted (Cousins)
St.K - Hayes
WCE - Lecras

$5 bet comes out as $11,126,362.50

Not bad as looking at the above that could in fact happen. Not too unrealistic.

most multis look like they have a good chance of happening....yet rarely do.

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Did the following two sets of multis

$4 Boyd-Harvey-Deledio-Vince-LeCras return $114.80
$4 Boyd-Harvey-Deledio-Vince-Selwood return $71.76
$4 Boyd-Harvey-Deledio-Thompson-LeCras return $124.36
$4 Boyd-Harvey-Deledio-Thompson-Selwood return $77.72




$4 Vince-LeCras-Boyd-Tredrea return $343.20
$4 Vince-LeCras-Boyd-Port Not Quoted return $265.20
$4 Vince-LeCras-Boyd-Pearce return $374.40
$4 Thompson-LeCras-Boyd-Tredrea return $343.20
$4 Thompson-LeCras-Boyd-Port Not Quoted return $265.20
$4 Thompson-LeCras-Boyd-Pearce return $374.40



Hopefully one from each group will get up. Any thoughts?

 

[Carlton Kid]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

most multis look like they have a good chance of happening....yet rarely do.

Agreed.

 

[premiers06]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Did the following two sets of multis

$4 Boyd-Harvey-Deledio-Vince-LeCras return $114.80
$4 Boyd-Harvey-Deledio-Vince-Selwood return $71.76
$4 Boyd-Harvey-Deledio-Thompson-LeCras return $124.36
$4 Boyd-Harvey-Deledio-Thompson-Selwood return $77.72




$4 Vince-LeCras-Boyd-Tredrea return $343.20
$4 Vince-LeCras-Boyd-Port Not Quoted return $265.20
$4 Vince-LeCras-Boyd-Pearce return $374.40
$4 Thompson-LeCras-Boyd-Tredrea return $343.20
$4 Thompson-LeCras-Boyd-Port Not Quoted return $265.20
$4 Thompson-LeCras-Boyd-Pearce return $374.40



Hopefully one from each group will get up. Any thoughts?

These are pretty solid I like the second set better but deledio to me is a real worry for the first group not 100% sold on Delidio.

However ill be putting pretty simillar multis to that with minus delidio plus S.Black

 

[CatFan79]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Agreed.

Last year Swan drew with someone else at the pies for most votes (can't remeber who) but that cut my big multi return in half..

On another topic, I'm interested to hear how others feel about BK's analysis?

He has the winner coming from either Black/Judd/Selwood (in that order) with Ablett and Hayes to round out the top 5.

I've done my own analysis and still see Ablett polling (at worst) high 20's with Swan and Judd close behind.

I DO think Hayes has a red hot chance to finish top 5 and I've picked him to lead the saints polling, from Dal Santo and Montagna.

I know Selwood, Black and Goodes are all umpires fav's but AT BEST I see them around the 20 vote mark and not able to threaten the contenders..

 

[echelon22]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I've done my own analysis and still see Ablett polling (at worst) high 20's with Swan and Judd close behind.

I DO think Hayes has a red hot chance to finish top 5 and I've picked him to lead the saints polling, from Dal Santo and Montagna.

I know Selwood, Black and Goodes are all umpires fav's but AT BEST I see them around the 20 vote mark and not able to threaten the contenders..

I pretty much agree. I have Ablett on around 27, Selwood 22, Goodes 21 and Judd 20. I could only find 17 for Black (like others who have posted tallies), however he does have a way of exceeding expectations so 20-21 votes would not surprise me.

Quite confident with Ablett. In the last 2 years he's collected 30+ poss 14 times and polled in every single one of those games. This year he's got 30+ in thirteen games.

Swan is the main danger according to my list. In the last 2 years if the pies have won and he's collected 30+ touches he's polled. In the two losses in which he got 30+ touches he also polled. He had 30+ in 12 wins this year, and 30+ in 2 losses. On that math I have him collecting 27 votes as well, it will be interesting to see how that pattern holds up.

Going to look into Dal, Hayes etc tonight

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Last year Swan drew with someone else at the pies for most votes (can't remeber who) but that cut my big multi return in half..

On another topic, I'm interested to hear how others feel about BK's analysis?

He has the winner coming from either Black/Judd/Selwood (in that order) with Ablett and Hayes to round out the top 5.

I've done my own analysis and still see Ablett polling (at worst) high 20's with Swan and Judd close behind.

I DO think Hayes has a red hot chance to finish top 5 and I've picked him to lead the saints polling, from Dal Santo and Montagna.

I know Selwood, Black and Goodes are all umpires fav's but AT BEST I see them around the 20 vote mark and not able to threaten the contenders..

It was Medhurst who drew with swan last year, i had the same thing happen too me!

interesting analysis, i'm a lot more sceptical about Ablett's chances. I'll be very interested too watch how he polls this year, yes he does have 4 or so games where he was a clear BOG, but apart from that his season has been made up of many games getting cheap handball recieves and picking up lots of possesions in strings of play to make his numbers look good. I'm not saying he cant win, but i think he'll poll surprisingly low, around the 20 mark.

My top 3 picks for the year are goodes, selwood and swan. Saying that at this stage i've got nothing on the win, just heaps of team and group multi's. there are too many people who can win the whole thing too risk betting on it, where as there are some much more likely scenario's for similar odds within the group betting.

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I pretty much agree. I have Ablett on around 27, Selwood 22, Goodes 21 and Judd 20. I could only find 17 for Black (like others who have posted tallies), however he does have a way of exceeding expectations so 20-21 votes would not surprise me.

Quite confident with Ablett. In the last 2 years he's collected 30+ poss 14 times and polled in every single one of those games. This year he's got 30+ in thirteen games.

Swan is the main danger according to my list. In the last 2 years if the pies have won and he's collected 30+ touches he's polled. In the two losses in which he got 30+ touches he also polled. He had 30+ in 12 wins this year, and 30+ in 2 losses. On that math I have him collecting 27 votes as well, it will be interesting to see how that pattern holds up.

Going to look into Dal, Hayes etc tonight

It's a risky thing too do an analysis based on numbers alone mate. I think looking through you'll find a lot of players well up on their previous numbers, and up on the numbers of past winners...

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Last year Swan drew with someone else at the pies for most votes (can't remeber who) but that cut my big multi return in half..

On another topic, I'm interested to hear how others feel about BK's analysis?

He has the winner coming from either Black/Judd/Selwood (in that order) with Ablett and Hayes to round out the top 5.

I've done my own analysis and still see Ablett polling (at worst) high 20's with Swan and Judd close behind.

I DO think Hayes has a red hot chance to finish top 5 and I've picked him to lead the saints polling, from Dal Santo and Montagna.

I know Selwood, Black and Goodes are all umpires fav's but AT BEST I see them around the 20 vote mark and not able to threaten the contenders..

BK has the runs on the board from last year and appears dedicated in his analysis.

Hower, I also disagree on a few issues.

The main issue is the degree of player love shown in polling history that BK rightly takes into account where I only adjust for this minutely.

As a consequence, I have Black and Selwood both polling below 20. I bookmarked an earlier post which I still stand by.

Despite this, I cannot ignore the weight of posts by others who say Black is in with a big chance (and especially given last year). Accordingly, I will be looking for hedging positions during the count.

However, I rate Selwood no chance of beating Ablett in votes.

Edit: The other big question is just how poor is the judgment of most umpires? We already know they struggle to bounce and call free kicks correctly. Can they judge the best player?

Ablett has won the MVP for both players and coaches for the last 3 years (I doubt anyone cares about media votes for POTY). Can the umpires get it wrong again?

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Can anyone advise where I can get complete player stats from past years on a match by match basis? I am aware that footywire offers player stats on this basis but there are important stats that they dont provide. The AFL homepage stats provide complete stats on players on a game by game basis for this year but cant find any for past years.
Thanks for the help!

 

[AG]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Can anyone advise where I can get complete player stats from past years on a match by match basis? I am aware that footywire offers player stats on this basis but there are important stats that they dont provide. The AFL homepage stats provide complete stats on players on a game by game basis for this year but cant find any for past years.
Thanks for the help!

http://www.finalsiren.com/

Go to player statistics at the top and then select player compare. Then type the name of the player and then a screen comes up with their career history. Select which year you want and then scroll down.

Basic stats but it's a good site.

 

[carlton2007]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I'm pretty sure only suspensions during the regular season count.
So even if Judd headbutted the umpire during the finals, he would still be eligible for the Brownlow.

thats spot on, you can not recieve any votes in the finals, so therefore finals do no count towards the brownlow medal. once the final siren of your respective match, in round 22, has sounded, there will be nothing you can do (with the exeption of kane kornes mouthing of to the umpire) to make yourself inellegible for the big one!

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

http://www.finalsiren.com/

Go to player statistics at the top and then select player compare. Then type the name of the player and then a screen comes up with their career history. Select which year you want and then scroll down.

Basic stats but it's a good site.

Great, thanks mate!!!

 

[Tigertriumph]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Am thinking of doin this as a multi for most votes polled per team

Brownlow Hawthorn Most Votes 3945 MITCHELL Sam 1.03
Brownlow Melburne Most Votes 3957 MOLONEY Brent 6.00
Brownlow Geelong Most Votes 3937 ABLETT Gary 1.12
Brownlow Wst Bdgs Most Votes 3991 BOYD Matthew 1.30
Brownlow Adelaide Most Votes 3905 VINCE Bernie 2.75
Brownlow West Cst Most Votes 3987 LECRAS Mark 4.00
combined odds 98.97

What do use reckon of its chances of winning any comments

 

[banta]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Edit: The other big question is just how poor is the judgment of most umpires? We already know they struggle to bounce and call free kicks correctly. Can they judge the best player?

Ablett has won the MVP for both players and coaches for the last 3 years (I doubt anyone cares about media votes for POTY). Can the umpires get it wrong again?

exactly. it all comes down to what the umpires think, which unfortunately is extremely difficult.
i guess it is possible to see previous years stats, and look at which umpires give votes in matches to certain types of players. but this theory again isn't all that solid.

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

exactly. it all comes down to what the umpires think, which unfortunately is extremely difficult.
i guess it is possible to see previous years stats, and look at which umpires give votes in matches to certain types of players. but this theory again isn't all that solid.

this is another reason why watching the game rather than relying on stats and media opinions is important. there are plenty of things you can pick up to help indicate where the votes are going. players that mouth off at the umpires or even other players dont tend too poll well, eg Didak... players who are fair, keep quiet and try to prevent trouble tend to get more votes. watch simon black, never talks back, shakes the umpires hand, holds back big johnno brown when he's firey, there is reason behind his good polling history.

players that have polled in previous years are also a pretty good indicator. looking into that really helps complete the picture as to where the umpires will direct the votes. I think its because its the umpires opinion that there is such a high chance of making a profit on the brownlow, if you go through and look at things from all angles, how players play, impact on a game, attitude towards the umpires, polling history, competition for votes, winning games ect you can form informed opinions that can give an edge over the bookies.

Of course at the end of the day luck does play a part as well, there are always going to be games where players are missed and where players pick up votes from no where, but thats what makes it so entertaining.

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Am thinking of doin this as a multi for most votes polled per team

Brownlow Hawthorn Most Votes 3945 MITCHELL Sam 1.03
Brownlow Melburne Most Votes 3957 MOLONEY Brent 6.00
Brownlow Geelong Most Votes 3937 ABLETT Gary 1.12
Brownlow Wst Bdgs Most Votes 3991 BOYD Matthew 1.30
Brownlow Adelaide Most Votes 3905 VINCE Bernie 2.75
Brownlow West Cst Most Votes 3987 LECRAS Mark 4.00
combined odds 98.97

What do use reckon of its chances of winning any comments

I think most should win, Moloney would be the danger but i suppose he's the one that brings the odds up so it could be worth the risk. Maybe do a couple of savers with Davey and Mclean.