Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

13 - Ablett, Pendlebury
12 - Hodge
11 - Judd, Boyd, Barlow, Bartel, Swan, Dal Santo
10 - Montagna, Goddard
9 - J.Bolton

Definitely like the first 6 on the leaderboard.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

odds are up on centrebet for this week, some interesting things:

* Centrebet still not giving bartel a chance to beat ablett for geelongs most votes, even though i have him, only 1 vote behind ablett, paying $9 after abletts $1.06!

* Watson still at $2.20, just can't see him being beaten for essendon's votes.

* Pavlich at $4, looks great, only have him behind barlow by a couple.

* Rodan $5.50 still looks really good too.

* Malceski shorter odds then goodes! haha i think not.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

FootyStar#1 said:
odds are up on centrebet for this week, some interesting things:

* Centrebet still not giving bartel a chance to beat ablett for geelongs most votes, even though i have him, only 1 vote behind ablett, paying $9 after abletts $1.06!

* Watson still at $2.20, just can't see him being beaten for essendon's votes.

* Pavlich at $4, looks great, only have him behind barlow by a couple.

* Rodan $5.50 still looks really good too.

* Malceski shorter odds then goodes! haha i think not.
Click to expand...

I agree on everything here. Ablett too short now. He's too short for the whole thing really.

Rodan/Pav great value. Malceski way too short out of nowhere. Sydney's votes are very interesting, Goodes will probably still win it though. My count is:

Sydney
A Goodes, J Mcveigh 7
B Mcglynn, D Bradshaw 6
N Malceski, J Bolton 5
D Hannebery 4
R O'keefe 3


JRiewoldt at $2.30 is free money, as is Judd at $1.50. Can't wait for TAB Markets. :D
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

If Dane Swan doesn't at least get 2 votes from yesterdays match it's a joke. He was epic and basically single handledly gave us a chance of winning. Would think Moloney and Swan will share the 3 and 2 they were both fantastic. Didn't think Pendles was anything special tbh. Brad Dick might get the 1 for kicking the most goals of anyone on the ground.

So this is how I think it will go:
3 Moloney
2 Swan
1 Dick
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

danielnajdek said:
If Dane Swan doesn't at least get 2 votes from yesterdays match it's a joke. He was epic and basically single handledly gave us a chance of winning. Would think Moloney and Swan will share the 3 and 2 they were both fantastic. Didn't think Pendles was anything special tbh. Brad Dick might get the 1 for kicking the most goals of anyone on the ground.

So this is how I think it will go:
3 Moloney
2 Swan
1 Dick
Click to expand...

Jamar smashed both Jolly and Fraser, he is surely good for at least 1.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

danielnajdek said:
If Dane Swan doesn't at least get 2 votes from yesterdays match it's a joke. He was epic and basically single handledly gave us a chance of winning. Would think Moloney and Swan will share the 3 and 2 they were both fantastic. Didn't think Pendles was anything special tbh. Brad Dick might get the 1 for kicking the most goals of anyone on the ground.

So this is how I think it will go:
3 Moloney
2 Swan
1 Dick
Click to expand...

Even from the get go, every kick/handball was spot on target, took a few really solid marks as well. If he had converted a couple of his 3 behinds it would have been a perefect game from his standards. I gave him the 3.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Athomas said:
I agree on everything here. Ablett too short now. He's too short for the whole thing really.

Rodan/Pav great value. Malceski way too short out of nowhere. Sydney's votes are very interesting, Goodes will probably still win it though. My count is:

Sydney
A Goodes, J Mcveigh 7
B Mcglynn, D Bradshaw 6
N Malceski, J Bolton 5
D Hannebery 4
R O'keefe 3


JRiewoldt at $2.30 is free money, as is Judd at $1.50. Can't wait for TAB Markets. :D
Click to expand...
Couldn't agree more, Riewoldt a moral down at Richmond at this stage and I still hate Deledio after last year where he cost most of us winning heaps more. Agree re Judd plus Watson that someone mentioned earlier.
Sydney very open and I actually have J Bolton in front but too tight to call.
It's all starting to take shape.
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

GoodesStuff said:
Judd is at 16.00 now :eek:
Click to expand...
Get more on is my advice ! 1 big BOG and he'll tumble into less than $10 and 2 BOGS and he'll be equal fav.
For all we know he's in front now. I still reckon that it's great how Gazza is so short and offering us all so much value on anyone else.
Admittedly if Gazza was to have a BOG match this week he'll tighten right up but I'm happy to risk.
Atleast out of everyone we all like, we know 1 thing : that Judd polls like a freak. Gazza will be risk like other recent winners the year after and isn't as good so far in 2010, Hodge polled terribly in 08 so is a risk, Barlow totally unkown, Goddard mouths off and hated by umps, Swan polled terribly last year, others have played well so far but probably not well enough.
Watson and Boomer Harvey the smokeys.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK - Watson and Harvey? Both sides will struggle to make the 8 now, especially the Bombers who could quite easily be 5-9 in 3 weeks time. I have tried to fade Watson most of the year after he missed out on certain votes last year and only have him on 8 votes at this stage, 2 ahead of Winders and Hille.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

AhSteveSteve27 said:
BK - Watson and Harvey? Both sides will struggle to make the 8 now, especially the Bombers who could quite easily be 5-9 in 3 weeks time. I have tried to fade Watson most of the year after he missed out on certain votes last year and only have him on 8 votes at this stage, 2 ahead of Winders and Hille.
Click to expand...
I've got both Watson and Harvey on 10-11 votes so it's the $151 that looks nice in an open year. I doubt either can win but with 10 rounds left 3-4 big games would go a long way.
Right now I'd say that if I had to stick my neck out that the current chances not in order are Ablett, Judd, Barlow, Hodge ( could be on front if he's polling well ), Swan.
It will be a massive last 10 rounds !
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Brownlow King said:
I've got both Watson and Harvey on 10-11 votes so it's the $151 that looks nice in an open year. I doubt either can win but with 10 rounds left 3-4 big games would go a long way.
Right now I'd say that if I had to stick my neck out that the current chances not in order are Ablett, Judd, Barlow, Hodge ( could be on front if he's polling well ), Swan.
It will be a massive last 10 rounds !
Click to expand...

I only have Watson on 4 votes and have David Hille leading ours on 6. Maybe i am underrating him but there have been other very good players in our wins.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

this might be a tough ask for all you statistician nuts out there, but has anyone got any data on any players who have received votes in games where they have also been reported in? say in the last 2-3 years?

There's a few games this year where im just wondering whether a player will poll well when reported (i.e. round 8 stk ess - Hille)
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

FootyStar#1 said:
this might be a tough ask for all you statistician nuts out there, but has anyone got any data on any players who have received votes in games where they have also been reported in? say in the last 2-3 years?

There's a few games this year where im just wondering whether a player will poll well when reported (i.e. round 8 stk ess - Hille)
Click to expand...


that is a very good question, i'd be interested in this too.

on a seperate note there is an interesting article on the afl website
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/96402/default.aspx
looks like they know that ablett is too short but there is a lot of money for the geelong / ablett double which makes sense after last year. I agree with what BK said earlier, this is giving all of us a lot of value if we are willing to risk ablett.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

fredd said:
that is a very good question, i'd be interested in this too.

on a seperate note there is an interesting article on the afl website
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/96402/default.aspx
looks like they know that ablett is too short but there is a lot of money for the geelong / ablett double which makes sense after last year. I agree with what BK said earlier, this is giving all of us a lot of value if we are willing to risk ablett.
Click to expand...
Well spotted...it makes a lot of sense. They are simply keeping Gazza super safe due to last year with him into Geel and the liability on the same double this year.
Gee I'm really starting to warm to Hodge. I've been thru his polling history and his 2008 wipeout isn't as bad as it looks ( games where he looked good on paper but those that got the votes had v good stats as well ) and he actually polled alright last year all things considered.
I can't wait to see the Quinella prices as I fondly recall the $131 price I smashed on the Cooney ( $16 to win at the time ) - Black ( $25 to win at the time ) result.
By comparison I'd say that Quinellas not involving Ablett this year will be big odds. Hodge - Barlow, Judd - Hayes for example would be big odds.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I'm really confused with Judd going out week after week. After he played Melboure he WENT OUT. Now, I went to that game and there is no way in the world that Judd wasnt the best player in that last quarter. Add to the fact that judd polls so well and given that Houlihan and Waite were generally the players getting votes in the paper and Judd surely gets at least a vote if not BOG.

Ablett after that same round didnt go out at all and theres no way he gets more than a vote. He really shouldnt poll at all in that game.

I understand Judd drifting last round but not to $15 and equal with barlow, hodge and jimmy.

FWIW, I've got an inkling that Garry will poll badly this year. Generally happens to the winner of the brownlow the previous year. I rekon Judd right now will be top 2 in the count. Barlow will poll bad as will Sandilands and Swan. Unsure of how Hodge will go. Not really sure of his past counts? Judd, Jimmy and Lenny are the value bets right now.

Also dont think goddard will poll well. Didnt last year and I doubt he will again. Loves getting stuck into the umpires which doesnt help...
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Brownlow King said:
Well spotted...it makes a lot of sense. They are simply keeping Gazza super safe due to last year with him into Geel and the liability on the same double this year.
Gee I'm really starting to warm to Hodge. I've been thru his polling history and his 2008 wipeout isn't as bad as it looks ( games where he looked good on paper but those that got the votes had v good stats as well ) and he actually polled alright last year all things considered.
I can't wait to see the Quinella prices as I fondly recall the $131 price I smashed on the Cooney ( $16 to win at the time ) - Black ( $25 to win at the time ) result.
By comparison I'd say that Quinellas not involving Ablett this year will be big odds. Hodge - Barlow, Judd - Hayes for example would be big odds.
Click to expand...
Lets hope so BK. Quinellas involving Hodge, Lenny, Bartel, Judd look good at this stage.
 
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