Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[bpg1986]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Great to see this is up and running again after what was a successful campaign for most of us last year!

At this point I'm wondering who you guys have your money on?

My bets are focused around taking people at big odds with the hope of laying them off on Betfair later on in the year.

For example I had Goddard last year pre-season at 250/1 which I had $100 on (stood to win $25,000). Rather then ride the bet, I laid him off at 25/1 before the count and pocketed a cool $1000 with no risk whatsoever.

So at this point in the season I'm looking for guys who are way over the odds... I'll never back anyone at less then 30/1.

Pre-season my main guy was Shaun Higgins, with minor investments on Kerr and Vince.

But last night I had a decent hit into Sandilands at 80/1 (he's now 50/1 thanks to me, sorry guys ) and minor plays on Barlow at 100/1 and Natanui at 50/1.

It seems this season Freo will finally win enough games to have a contender, and given that they both should have 4-6 votes by my reckoning after 2 rounds the odds are incredibly juicy.

At this point I don't consider either to be serious contenders but more a potential trade out for profit. Sandilands could potentially become a serious contender though.

So who do you guys have you $$ on so far?

After a few very successful years with only minor investments, I'm going to have a real go this year for the big bucks... here's hoping we all clean up!

 

[bpg1986]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Oh but the bet I'm most excited about so far is this:

Riewoldt was 26/1 to win the Coleman pre-season which I thought was over the odds. Then I got to thinking, if he does win the Coleman he'll have to kick about 100 goals, and if he does that surely he'll have Charlie to take home as well.

So I doubled it at 730/1 or so, and then trebled it with a Saints flag at 3000/1.

Obviously still very speculative but it's looking much more possible now then 2 rounds ago.

Come on Roo boy!

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Niceeee

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

My Brownlow so far:

 

[bombersaway]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

hey stuziman i think boak will be a great one to get on now

not sure about those odds though sportsbet have him at 501/1 right now

considering port should play finals win say 12-15 games and with the burgoynes gone he has to start in the guts and be the main man u would think k.cornes never gets votes and chad playing down back there's not to many real dangers for him at port only pearce i gues but he's to inconsistant

boaks off to a good start he's first round draft pick and injury free might go get on right now


as for the reiwoldt/saints trebble what an awesome bet i reckon your on a real good thing there hope u loaded up on it

 

[jefffff34]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

The above posts about multi'ing each clubs leading vote getters is very much on the mark, I put a $10 3 way bet on last year that had Jon Brown/Jason Winderlich/Warren Tredrea all multied for Brisbane, Essendon and Port Adelaide. It got me $576. They were all equal top of their respective club, if they were clear leaders, I would have won $4800. Winderlich was $41 at TAB Sportsbet.

This is what I have at the moment, a yellow cell means he has a chance of polling. Black means he was did not play (or will not) and a red name means they are ineligible.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Given how successful it seems everyone was last year, I wonder if all the agencies will stop allowing the multis this year.

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Given how successful it seems everyone was last year, I wonder if all the agencies will stop allowing the multis this year.

I'm thinking centrebet won't but sportsbet will so have your $$ ready the morning it's up

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

check out my idea for the brownlow and tell me what you think?

it might work... http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?p=17357717#post17357717

 

[DCFCFAN84]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Dockers Vs Adelaide

3. Barlow
2. Sandilands
1. Pavlich

Dockers Vs Essendon

3. Sandilands
2. Hill
1. Barlow

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Round 2, 2010.

Brisbane Lions V Carlton:
3. Jonathan Brown
2. Marc Murphy
1. Jared Brennan

Collingwood V Melbourne:
3. Aaron Davey
2. Ricky Petterd
1. Scott Pendlebury

West Coast V Port Adelaide:
3. Travis Boak
2. Adam Selwood
1. Jason Davenport

St. Kilda V North Melbourne:
3. Nick Riewoldt
2. Brendon Goddard
1. Leigh Montagna

Adelaide V Sydney:
3. Ryan O'Keefe
2. Ben McGlynn
1. Patrick Dangerfield

Essendon V Fremantle:
3. Aaron Sandilands
2. Michael Barlow
1. Paul Hasleby

Richmond V Western Bulldogs:
3. Adam Cooney
2. Daniel Cross
1. Lindsay Gilbee

Hawthorn V Geelong:
3. Jimmy Bartel
2. Gary Ablett
1. Corey Enright

My Running Leaderboard can be located on my blog http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com

 

[DCFCFAN84]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Round 3

Dockers Vs Geelong

3. Pavlich
2. Ablett
1. Hill

 

[AG]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

EDIT: Reimers should be the 1 vote instead of NLM.

 

[bombersaway]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Round 3

stk v coll
3.j.gram
2.l.hayes
1.n.dal santo

kang v wce
3.b.harvey
2.m.lecras
1.l.anthony

bris v port
3.j.sherman
2.j.brown
1.m.richetelli

ess v car
3.j.watson
2.n.lovett-murray
k.simpson

syd v rich
3.b.mcglynn
2.j.bolton
1.n.malceski

melb v ade
3.j.mcdonald
2.b.moloney
1.b.vince

wbull v haw
3.m.boyd
2.c.rioli
1.b.hall

fre v gee
3.m.pavlich
2.g.ablett
1.p.chapman

leaders
j.brown 7
j.bartell 6
n.reiwoldt 6
b.mcglynn 6
m.barlow 5
g.ablett 4
m.boyd 4
t.boak 4
r.o'keffe 4
j.brennan 4

 

[Halli]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Im doing my own Phantom Brownlow. I run one last year on my website which was very successful, got the first three in order so going to use the same kind of formula this year and hope for soem similar success.

Round 1
Round 2
Round 3

I currently have Michael Barlow, Nick Riewoldt and Jon Brown on the top with 6 votes each, while James Bartel, Sam Gilbert, Ben McGlynn and Matthew Pavlich are all equal second on 5 votes. (view full tally)

Wish me luck!

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Im doing my own Phantom Brownlow. I run one last year on my website which was very successful, got the first three in order so going to use the same kind of formula this year and hope for soem similar success.

Round 1
Round 2
Round 3

I currently have Michael Barlow, Nick Riewoldt and Jon Brown on the top with 6 votes each, while James Bartel, Sam Gilbert, Ben McGlynn and Matthew Pavlich are all equal second on 5 votes. (view full tally)

Wish me luck!

Love your count, very similar to mine. Good luck!

 

[mitchzz]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

My leader at the moment is Reiwoldt on 6 followed by Barlow, Brown and Sandilands on 5.

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

So halli, how do you come up with your results?

I tried to search last years results on ur site without luck...can you direct me?

 

[tranquilli lace]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

HI GUYS HAVE RAN MY OWN COUNT FOR 3 YEARS AND HAVE BEEN LUCKY SO FAR HAVE PICKED THE WINNERS EVRYTIME 07,08 AND 09
WE ALL HAVE OUR OWN WAYS OF LOOKING AT IT AND THROUGH PLENTY OF STUDY ON THE BROWNLOW ITS EASIER TO SEE HOW THE UMPIRES SEE IT
OF COURSE ITS NOT 100% BUT IVE MADE SOME GOOD MONEY IN THE PAST COONEY/BLACK QUINELLA PAID 151/1 1N 08

ALL THE POINTS U GUYS MAKE R VERY GOOD ONE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS FREE'S FOR AND AGAINST THEY R AROUND THE UMPIRES MORE OFTEN UNLESS THE FREE AGAINST OR REPORT IS TOO AGRESIVE THEY SEEM TO POLL VOTES THE UMPS ALSO FOLLOW TRENDS IF A PLAYER IS UP FOR A MONTH FOR INSTANCE HE'S MORE LIKELY EVEN IF HE PLAYS A LESSER GAME TO SOME OTHERS AND THEY DEFFINATLY HAVE THEIR FAVORITES ANOTHER THING IVE FOUND IS DISREGARD TACKLES I MADE THE MISTAKE WITH BOYD LAST YEAR AND I WAS A LONG WAY OFF HE'S SCORE IVE BEEN TWEAKING THIS EVERY TIME AND HOPEFULLY IT CAN BE MORE ACCURATE THIS TIME COS ITS NOT WHO WINS WHERE U MAKE MONRY ITS CLUB BY CLUB MULTI'S THAT WHERE U CAN REALLY CLEAN UP SO ALL THE MINOR VOTES MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE

ALSO I HAVE A MATHEMATICAL TIPPING SYSTEM IM TRYING TO FINE TUNE SO FAR ITS PICKED 8 BOTH WEEKS ANOTHER WAY TO $$$
WILL POST THAT FRI

IM NEW TO THIS FORUM AND LOOK FORWARD TO SHARING IDEAS WITH EVERYONE SO HOPEFULLY WE ALL CASH IN AT THE END

NEVER CARED MUCH FOR PUNCTUATION

CHEERS

Hey Bombersaway - how'd your tips go for Round 3? Didn't see them up here. Were you close to the mark again? I wouldn't mind seeing them every week if you had the time. Cheers.

 

[bombersaway]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

hey tranqulli (springbank superstar)

didnt get a chance to get on over the weekend so missed out on posting them have spent some time over the last couple of days working on this week.

its a new system so i figure it needs about 6 weeks worth of results to get a better gauge on what works and what doesnt

it was fair at best but needed a round like this to balance it all out
it picked freo highest score and ade lowest score on sun which i put a $15 multi on odds of 39/1 for a collect of $585 so all was not lost

but its very complicated at this stage as there r about 10 different score/margin results and another 3 win ratio pages

for the record 1 line picked 7
the rest either 4 or 6 out of the 8
and most of the margins were pretty accurate all ones picked within about 10 points

will hopefully get it up this week it all depends on starting 22
so thurs will do fri game
sat morning sat games and the same again for sunday cheers

 

[tranquilli lace]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

hey tranqulli (springbank superstar)

didnt get a chance to get on over the weekend so missed out on posting them have spent some time over the last couple of days working on this week.

its a new system so i figure it needs about 6 weeks worth of results to get a better gauge on what works and what doesnt

it was fair at best but needed a round like this to balance it all out
it picked freo highest score and ade lowest score on sun which i put a $15 multi on odds of 39/1 for a collect of $585 so all was not lost

but its very complicated at this stage as there r about 10 different score/margin results and another 3 win ratio pages

for the record 1 line picked 7
the rest either 4 or 6 out of the 8
and most of the margins were pretty accurate all ones picked within about 10 points

will hopefully get it up this week it all depends on starting 22
so thurs will do fri game
sat morning sat games and the same again for sunday cheers

Sounds like it has plenty of potential! It's obviously always been the one area people have been trying to get right on a regular basis but factors such as injuries during games, player brain fades and everything in between make it very difficult. Look forward to seeing how it progresses.

 

[Halli]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

So halli, how do you come up with your results?

I tried to search last years results on ur site without luck...can you direct me?

I watch plenty of football which helps, and my business partner also watches games. I analyse stats, read the newspapers and match reviews and read this forum as well to see what other people are thinking. I also slightly favour players who seem to poll well most years.

There are lots of different things i take into account which seemed to work last year. Unfortunately i dont have last years results handy, i used to post them up on my betting blog, but we changed servers and moved from Typepad to Wordpress late last year, and all the old posts on there are gone. So it probably reeks of a bit of arrogance coming here saying i got the first three last year but not able to show you it, but for what its worth it was successful.

Have literally just set up a new site last night >> PhantomBrownlowMedal.com.au so everything will be tracked on here now. See what ya think

 

[Frothies Mcveigh]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

AG some more great work, the contrasts between peoples votes isinteresting.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Round 3, 2010.

St Kilda vs Collingwood
3. L. Hayes
2. S. Gilbert
1. J. Gram

North Melbourne vs West Coast
3. B. Harvey
2. A. Swallow
1. D. Wells

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions
3. M. Rischitelli
2. J. Sherman
1. J. Brown

Sydney vs Richmond
3. J. Bolton
2. B. McGlynn
1. H. Grundy

Carlton vs Essendon
3. J. Watson
2. N. Lovett-Murray
1. D. Fletcher

Melbourne vs Adelaide
3. James McDonald
2. J. Frawley
1. J. Grimes

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn
3. B. Boyd
2. R. Griffen
1. C. Rioli

Fremantle vs Geelong
3. M. Pavlich
2. G. Ablett
1. S. Hill

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Doing my own Brownlow like a lot of people. Will post the results after round 22.