Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I think the $31 on offer for Mundy to top Freo's votes is pretty good value. Has become their main clearance/contested possession winner this year and works well with Sandi. By Round 22, can't see much separating Barlow, Pav, Sandi and this guy.

I personally think Mundy is basically no chance to win Fremantle's votes and think his price is actually reflective of his chances. I would actually be surprised if he polls double digits. I don't think his playing style is attractive enough and there has been a few games this year where he has performed well but in a losing Fremantle side. I think it really is a 3 horse race between Pav, Barlow and Sandilands. Right now Barlow is definitely the value and i think he would currently be in front. Sandilands has a chance to beat him, last 4 games will determine if either Sandilands or Pav can catch Barlow.

 

[mattybomb22]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Great call. I reckon that Pendles got another 3.

I'm beginning to warm to a theory that the umps were off Swan last year and looked for others to give votes to at Coll. Last year they managed to give Pendles 13, Swan 12, Didak 12 and Davis 10 even though Swan clearly had the best year.

This year the Pies will win a fair few more games and if they look for guys to give votes to then Pendlebury could be right up there. Davis has had a shocker and Didak the same as last year at best.

It would be fair to say that Pendlebury has had atleast as good a year as last year and with a solid 4 weeks it could be rated a far better year ( he missed 2 games last year as well ). I have him on 18 or so votes and if Swan, Hodge and Ablett are off this year then he could easily be the one. Great value now at $21.

In my count Pendles is right up there with Swan and getting better each week! I also have Selwood up level with Ablett. Do you agree Brownlow King? As for my home team , goes without saying legend Blackie will be our best as has been our best this year once again , especially in a couple of those losing games which he has a knack of polling in.

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I personally think Mundy is basically no chance to win Fremantle's votes and think his price is actually reflective of his chances. I would actually be surprised if he polls double digits. I don't think his playing style is attractive enough and there has been a few games this year where he has performed well but in a losing Fremantle side.

My Freo votes: 14 - Barlow, 12 - Sandilands, 9 - Mundy, 7 - Pavlich. I agree with you that Barlow is still the value, but his early games may not attract votes. Ruckmen are usually hard done by as are forwards. Its the contested ball/clearance winners who get the bulk of votes and that has been Mundy's role this year. Its the popularity of the other three that has pushed his price out and given that I still think he's in the mix, I rate $31 value and worth a tenner.

FWIW FootStar, our leaderboards are almost identical.

 

[Pumbi]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

To my knowledge, Collingwood were a little worried that Pendlebury had 'over-worked' (For lack of a better term) in the pre-season, and subsequently managed him through the first part of the season. This was exemplified by his role in the side; He played a fair portion of matchs on the HFF in the first 6 or so rounds. Since about Round 10, he has dominated clearances and has been getting a heap of the ball. The only thing that hurts his chances is that Swan has played his best footy at around the same time of the year, and it would take a brave umpire to not award Swan the 3 votes in a few of those games. Having said that, Pendlebury still has 4 matches at the MCG to dominate, and I don't think he has even peaked this year.

 

[tranquilli lace]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

To my knowledge, Collingwood were a little worried that Pendlebury had 'over-worked' (For lack of a better term) in the pre-season, and subsequently managed him through the first part of the season. This was exemplified by his role in the side; He played a fair portion of matchs on the HFF in the first 6 or so rounds. Since about Round 10, he has dominated clearances and has been getting a heap of the ball. The only thing that hurts his chances is that Swan has played his best footy at around the same time of the year, and it would take a brave umpire to not award Swan the 3 votes in a few of those games. Having said that, Pendlebury still has 4 matches at the MCG to dominate, and I don't think he has even peaked this year.

Top post this! Agree with all that.

On another topic, may I play devil's advocate on Luke Hodge? I've watched a lot of him this year and he seems to have a lot to say to the umpires. Whether or not it is all negative we'll never quite know, but I'm appraoching him with caution.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Top post this! Agree with all that.

On another topic, may I play devil's advocate on Luke Hodge? I've watched a lot of him this year and he seems to have a lot to say to the umpires. Whether or not it is all negative we'll never quite know, but I'm appraoching him with caution.

Has always been a problem iirc, and together with his ability to get reported is the reason why I've only had a very small nibble at him at long odds early in the season and not bothered about him since.

 

[krayfesh]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

It's definitely not a stretch of the imagination to see Pendlebury and Bartel at least win their teams votes.

I still find it a little hard to see Hodge and Swan polling super well. Hodge definitely should though, as he's been great this year and has had a more prominent midfield role.

Probably not including Swan in any of my bets though...

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

It's definitely not a stretch of the imagination to see Pendlebury and Bartel at least win their teams votes.

That would make me a very rich man

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does anyone rate Boyd as an outside chance to win it this year? I think he could be on 16-17 votes atm and has been playing well the past few weeks. He is at $51, is he worth the punt? Would like to know what others have him on.

 

[Uncle Carlos]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does anyone rate Boyd as an outside chance to win it this year? I think he could be on 16-17 votes atm and has been playing well the past few weeks. He is at $51, is he worth the punt? Would like to know what others have him on.

I can't see him winning to be honest. I've chucked his name about a bit but I don't think he's going to be a high polling player, in many of his big possession games guys like cooney, griffen and cross are likely to get the 3. I think he'll get the most at WB but doubt he'll come close to the overall winner...

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I have Boyd on 15 at the moment, i agree with the above poster and think he will win bulldogs most votes, although to win the whole thing he would need to have 3 or 4 clear BOG's in the last 4 rounds to have any chance. I'd say top 8 would be more likely for him. He's a great player and if the bulldogs continue their form throughout the next few seasons, i'd rate him as a high chance to win a brownlow.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Round 18 Leaderboard
22 - L. Hodge
19 - G. Ablett (+)
18 - C. Judd
18 - L. Hayes
18 - D. Swan
17 - S. Pendlebury (+)
16 - M. Boyd (+)
16 - J. Bartel (-)
15 – J. Selwood (+)
15 - A. Cooney
15 - M. Barlow
14 - J. Watson
14 - A. Swallow
13 - A. Sandilands (+)
13 – A. Goodes

Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.

For more info, complete round votes, discussion and leaderboard visit http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Barlow is looking good now for most team votes with Sandi out this wend... adds good value to the multis!

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Round 18 Leaderboard
22 - L. Hodge
19 - G. Ablett (+)
18 - C. Judd
18 - L. Hayes
18 - D. Swan
17 - S. Pendlebury (+)
16 - M. Boyd (+)
16 - J. Bartel (-)
15 – J. Selwood (+)
15 - A. Cooney
15 - M. Barlow
14 - J. Watson
14 - A. Swallow
13 - A. Sandilands (+)
13 – A. Goodes

Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.

For more info, complete round votes, discussion and leaderboard visit http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com

when are you going to update your blog Walke... been waiting for that little read

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

when are you going to update your blog Walke... been waiting for that little read

Updated as of a few minutes ago, mate. Thanks for reading! Enjoy!

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

IMO Boyd is the hardest of any player to read in terms of how many votes he'll get.

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

IMO Boyd is the hardest of any player to read in terms of how many votes he'll get.

Yeah I agree really hard to predict. If he is on 16/17 votes then $51 is great odds. There are plenty who could take votes off
him though with cross, griff, cooney etc and hall as well. I have included him in some long shot multis (small outlay), not expecting them to get up but u never know.

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

IMO Boyd is the hardest of any player to read in terms of how many votes he'll get.

Yeah I agree really hard to predict. If he is on 16/17 votes though then $51 is over the odds. There are plenty who could take votes off him though with Cross, Griff Cooney etc, and Hall as well. I have included him in some long shot multis (small outlay), not expecting them to get up but u never know.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yeah I agree really hard to predict. If he is on 16/17 votes though then $51 is over the odds. There are plenty who could take votes off him though with Cross, Griff Cooney etc, and Hall as well. I have included him in some long shot multis (small outlay), not expecting them to get up but u never know.

multis? you have put him in multis or you plan to put him in some long shot multis?

By the way BK i sent you a private message

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

multis? you have put him in multis or you plan to put him in some long shot multis?

By the way BK i sent you a private message

Have multied Boyd and a few other contenders into potential premiership winners (cats/saints etc) is all.

 

[Modra93]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I really wish you could multi someone placing in the brownlow into a premiership contender.. didnt seem to want to work for me the other day.

Whose keen for Juddy to have a big one tommorow night? He has polled 5 votes (2 & 3) in 4 games against the Dons since joining Carlton, hopefully can make it 8 in 5.

 

[banta]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

just watched the replay of the port vs hawks game and yet again found it pretty tough for votes and reading through peoples mixed thoughts didnt make it easier.

clubs votes like port as well as the bulldogs and a few other clubs have been tough to pick in recent years and have provided a lot of value. which is why i really want to try to get a good grip on port votes.

for those who watched the game let me know what you think and for people who have watched a lot of port, share who you think would be leading at the moment.

for the weekend i went (albeit not confidently):
3. Cassisi
2. Westhoff
1. Shulz or Pearce

for the game i thought casissi was great and was at the bottom of almost every pack which has to count for something in the umpires eye, even though he didnt get massive stats.
shulz took big grabs and kicked important goals.
westhoff, also took a few big marks, was at lots of contests and put a lot of tackles on, in particular the one in the last with the game on the line.
pearce was good in the second half and broke the tag a bit, kicking 2 big goals.
for some reason i thought broadbent was good too but stats didnt reflect this
sewell was probably the best hawk.

also i think the commentator mentioned there was a first gamer umpiring. not sure if anything should be read into that but i thought that he maybe thinking more favorably to the captains and players who put their head over the ball. which is the type of player umpires are told to protect (think more favorably towards). which was cassisi in my eyes. but i may be way off.

 

[premiers06]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

just watched the replay of the port vs hawks game and yet again found it pretty tough for votes and reading through peoples mixed thoughts didnt make it easier.

clubs votes like port as well as the bulldogs and a few other clubs have been tough to pick in recent years and have provided a lot of value. which is why i really want to try to get a good grip on port votes.

for those who watched the game let me know what you think and for people who have watched a lot of port, share who you think would be leading at the moment.

for the weekend i went (albeit not confidently):
3. Cassisi
2. Westhoff
1. Shulz or Pearce

for the game i thought casissi was great and was at the bottom of almost every pack which has to count for something in the umpires eye, even though he didnt get massive stats.
shulz took big grabs and kicked important goals.
westhoff, also took a few big marks, was at lots of contests and put a lot of tackles on, in particular the one in the last with the game on the line.
pearce was good in the second half and broke the tag a bit, kicking 2 big goals.
for some reason i thought broadbent was good too but stats didnt reflect this
sewell was probably the best hawk.

also i think the commentator mentioned there was a first gamer umpiring. not sure if anything should be read into that but i thought that he maybe thinking more favorably to the captains and players who put their head over the ball. which is the type of player umpires are told to protect (think more favorably towards). which was cassisi in my eyes. but i may be way off.

cassisi i reckon is one of the value bets imo is in with a big shot and at $10 is value with the only other contenders being rodan and boak in getting more votes but as you said its hard to get a read on port

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

They loved Cassisi in that game, gave him a holding a ball decision then minutes later didn't ping him!

I went Schulz 3 Cassisi 2 Westhoff 1 but pearce could get the 1. Rodan a small chance at the 1 as well but I'm confdient on the first 2, just not the order.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yeh i thought the port game was tough to decide, in the end i changed mine to

3. cassisi
2. pearce
1. schulz

With sewell and westhoff the two other possibilities.

I think Port is one of the high risk teams but can be narrowed down to a few players. I think Cassisi, Rodan and Pearce are the only three chances for Port. I have a feeling Boak is only on about 5 or 6 at the moment and that these three are in the range of abou 7-10 between them. Very close but terrific odds. Right now i'd say Rodan or Pearce would be just leading but unfortunately this could very well be one of those teams with a split winner by the end of the count. Hopefully they can have 1 or 2 more wins before seasons end to distinguish a winner.