Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Thought I'd bump this with all the Swan (and Pendlebury) talk too.

Ok, well based on my analysis from before with the margins (60+ wins = 5.75 votes, 1-12 votes = 4.47 votes and so on) I've compared what each team 'should' have got compared to what they did.


Difference

16.60    Sydney
7.63    Brisbane
4.30    Geelong 
4.01    Port
3.64    Adelaide
3.04    Richmond
0.61    Fremantle
0.36    Carlton
-0.12    Melbourne
-0.31    St Kilda 
-1.81    West Coast
-3.53    North
-5.61    Essendon
-6.25    Hawthorn
-10.64    Bulldogs
-12.29    Collingwood

This is the basic summary (with all the actual results below).

From what I have found, Sydney got 16 more votes then they should have. Was trying to work out why, I would say the 'Goodes Factor' can accomodate at least 5 votes worth probably. For the next best Brisbane, you could almost say the 'Black Factor' would explain the same reason!

For the teams that polled badly, I think it is pretty clear why, they are extremely even. Collingwood as a whole do not have too many standouts and have a lot of players who play as a team for their wins. Pendlebury, Didak, Swan and Davis all got within 10-13 votes with a lot of other votes shared around the team.

The bulldogs are also a very even team, with 17 different players polling and the votes very evenly distributed.

Expected Votes    Actual Votes    Difference    
 
110.31    110.00    -0.31    St Kilda 
93.70    98    4.30    Geelong 
77.37    85    7.63    Brisbane
79.36    83    3.64    Adelaide
88.64    78    -10.64    Bulldogs
77.64    78    0.36    Carlton
87.29    75    -12.29    Collingwood
53.40    70    16.60    Sydney
55.99    60    4.01    Port
63.61    58    -5.61    Essendon
54.81    53    -1.81    West Coast
56.25    50    -6.25    Hawthorn
47.53    44    -3.53    North
41.39    42    0.61    Fremantle
37.96    41    3.04    Richmond
31.12    31    -0.12    Melbourne

These are the actual numbers. Carlton only won 13 games compared to Collingwood's 15 but managed to poll 3 more votes.

I don't think this data is too significant, however I do think it plays a bit of a part in showing that some teams poll better then others (Syd/Bris v Coll/Bull) and that the winning team will get more votes 93% of the time.

Did some analysis on my count this year (based on winning margins again) and I have Collingwood getting less votes then they deserve again which makes me smile.

Don't think it's too crucial, just thought I'd share it. If I can be bothered I'd do 2008 as well, maybe after exams.

 

[Gift]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Read in the Herald Sun today that one punter put $4k Pendle/Coll double with payout at $312000 and $4k on Hayes/Coll double with payout $252000

Was it BK or one of the other guys here?

 

[Uncle Carlos]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Read in the Herald Sun today that one punter put $4k Pendle/Coll double with payout at $312000 and $4k on Hayes/Coll double with payout $252000

Was it BK or one of the other guys here?

Read back a few pages. BK

 

[Gift]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

My bad i missed it... lol BK is secretly famous for making the news

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hey BK with your quinellas do you usually pick a number of players and invest in all their options... for instance if you think Swan, Hodge, Hayes, Pendlebury and Judd are your top 5 will you invest in:

Swan-Hodge, Swan-Pendle, Swan-Hayes....
Hodge-Pendle, Hodge-Hayes....

and so on? and also in this instance would you not include the likes of Swan, whom you may think can win, yet due to low odds wont win you big bucks for a quinella

Yeah pretty much spot on. I line up about my top 5 or 6 and take all combos. I vary the outlay according to confidence levels.
Last year I rated Judd and Gazza in my top 3 but didn't have a cracker on that quinella as I chased value. This year I'll have something on options involving all my guys and will include Swan for sure.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Might as well chuck my 2 cents in as well!! Firstly let me agree with above, that swan is super player, and even though I don't think he'll win, he has to be a massive chance and to back big against him is a massive risk. But I see a few reasons that he won't win... Firstly as mentioned, he is not a fashionable player. Furthermore, i know that he has been really effective this year, but the fact that in the past he has not been a great user will likely count against him, along with his ungainly style.

Another thing that will probably go against him, ridiculous as this sounds, is his consistency. Collingwood win by 100 points, swan has 35 touches. Collingwood win by 50 points, he has 35 touches. They win by 1 point, he has 35 touches. they lose by whatever margin, he has 35 touches. If he plays the same game every week, the umpires are looking at the x factor... more often than not, thats pendlebury gliding through packs, or didak shrugging off opponents to drive a goal from the 50.

3rd reason and most important reason, to expand on what i've said above, and mostly what BK said said about what players tick the boxes. I agree with the characteristics that previous brownlow medallists have. but IMO the key aspect is left out... leadership. The men that win brownlow medals are those that inspire, that can lift a struggling side squarely on their shoulders and be the difference in a match. Look at Judd when the chips are down at the blues... look at luke hodge! He has been the difference in so many hawks games.. however the hawks up and down form might hurt him. Then we come to the man that I love Lenny Hayes. When the chips are down at the saints, which they have been a few times this year, they look to Lenny to inspire, to lead from the front to turn a game around with a series of contested balls, courage, ferocious takcles, and drag the saints over the line. From the match report on afl.com.au

"ST KILDA has notched an important 35-point win over West Coast at Subiaco Oval on Sunday, snapping a two-game losing run and reviving its faltering season.

Defeat would have plunged the 2009 grand finalists into crisis, and they appeared destined for their fourth loss in five games early in the third quarter with the Eagles clearly in control and 17 points clear.

However, inspirational leader Lenny Hayes turned the tide in St Kilda’s favour as the visitors rediscovered their best football and kicked nine of the game’s last 10 goals" http://www.afl.com.au/match results/tabid/11433/default.aspx

That my friends, is the stuff that wins brownlows... and having written all this i'm going to rest my aching fingers, then probably double the money i've invested in hayes because i've talked myself into it

Very good points indeed ! I might have something more on Lenny myself.
The reality check for us with that theory is that you won't get votes if you haven't played a big game ( or atleast a v solid one ) and idealy your team needs to win when you play the big ones. Lenny is needing votes in the loss to Ess ( ideally seeking 2 votes ) plus the draw against the Hawks when Hodge was terrific. I honestly reckon that Lenny had a better year last year and would need 1-2 big games to be on par with last year IMO. The upside is that Riewoldt, who came 2nd for the Saints votes last year, has been MIA this year so the competition from him has gone and the competition for votes at the Saints has dropped off IMO.
There is also no Gazza running riot in this year's mix so 20 votes can win this year.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Read in the Herald Sun today that one punter put $4k Pendle/Coll double with payout at $312000 and $4k on Hayes/Coll double with payout $252000

Was it BK or one of the other guys here?

Thank you very much, BK in the papers again ! As someone said I alerted you guys to these bets once I'd placed them on Monday night.

 

[Saint4Ever]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I think Lenny Hayes has been absolutely brilliant this year. Swan is deserved favourite for the brownlow as he is a gun and has had a great year but Lenny has been awesome and the umps love him. Saints have relatively easy games comming up so expect hayes to finish the year off with a bang!

My top 3 are
1. Hayes
2. Swan
3. Ablett

roughy- Adam Goodes (only player that stands out for swans)

 

[Uncle Carlos]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Very good points indeed ! I might have something more on Lenny myself.
The reality check for us with that theory is that you won't get votes if you haven't played a big game ( or atleast a v solid one ) and idealy your team needs to win when you play the big ones. Lenny is needing votes in the loss to Ess ( ideally seeking 2 votes ) plus the draw against the Hawks when Hodge was terrific. I honestly reckon that Lenny had a better year last year and would need 1-2 big games to be on par with last year IMO. The upside is that Riewoldt, who came 2nd for the Saints votes last year, has been MIA this year so the competition from him has gone and the competition for votes at the Saints has dropped off IMO.
There is also no Gazza running riot in this year's mix so 20 votes can win this year.

Haha yeah i'm aware of these realities... I actually meant to just point out that swan is not that sort of player, using lenny was a bad example considering how much i love the guy, i should have known that i'd get carried away haha

 

[carpsi]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I still think Hayes is the one, and honestly believe he can win the medal and is being totally understated. I place a fair bit of emphisis on previous history and here is my Hayes breakdown.

2006

Played in 5 St Kilda wins
Polled in 3 games when gaining 26, 38, 24 touches (3,3,2)
Didn't poll in 2 games (22 and 11 touches)

2007

Played in 9 St Kilda wins
Polled in 4 games when gaining 32, 30, 19 26 touches (3,1,2,2)
Didn't poll in 5 games (17,17,28,22,16 touches)

2008

Played in 12 St Kilda wins
Polled in 7 games when gaining 28, 25, 27, 22, 25, 30, 29 touches (3,3,1,2,2,3)
Didn't poll in 5 games (17,15,20,16,16,20 touches)

2009

Played in 18 St Kilda wins
Managed 25 or more possessions 13 times during wins.
Managed 30 or more possessions 11 out of those 13 wins.

In the previous 3 years, if the Saints won and Hayes got more than 25 possessions, he has only not polled a vote once. I think he has 4 clear BOG games (5,8,14,16) and clearly 2 or 3 votes in 10 and 22. 16 votes from 6 games, 22 would not be surprise. I also like that he also polls mostly 2-3's previously.

 

[frantelle]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I still think Hayes is the one, and honestly believe he can win the medal and is being totally understated. I place a fair bit of emphisis on previous history and here is my Hayes breakdown.

Thats some solid research.
Where do you get historical votes (round by round) from?

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does everyone agree that currently Judd, Thompson, Boomer, Goodes and Watson are the best anchors?

Based on Centerbet odd's that would be just over 12-1* which is pretty good considering the value of people like Selwood, Pendles, Hayes, Sylvia/Green, Cooney, Rodan/Boak, etc.

*I know the Centerbet prices aren't the same as the TAB ones but it's a decent guide to go by.

For Sure

If Sandi misses then you could throw Barlow in there too! & imo Hayes falls under anchors aswell, theres 115/1 with these 2 added.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does everyone agree that currently Judd, Thompson, Boomer, Goodes and Watson are the best anchors?

Based on Centerbet odd's that would be just over 12-1* which is pretty good considering the value of people like Selwood, Pendles, Hayes, Sylvia/Green, Cooney, Rodan/Boak, etc.

*I know the Centerbet prices aren't the same as the TAB ones but it's a decent guide to go by.

Im planning to use all the players you mentioned as my anchors, except for Boomer who I think is a risk...

Will use Hayes, Pendles, Bartel, Rodan, and possibly Barlow as my value selections.

 

[Uncle Carlos]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Im planning to use all the players you mentioned as my anchors, except for Boomer who I think is a risk...

Will use Hayes, Pendles, Bartel, Rodan, and possibly Barlow as my value selections.

I won't be using thompson...watson and goodes are the best 2 anchors by far IMO

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Very good points indeed ! I might have something more on Lenny myself.
The reality check for us with that theory is that you won't get votes if you haven't played a big game ( or atleast a v solid one ) and idealy your team needs to win when you play the big ones. Lenny is needing votes in the loss to Ess ( ideally seeking 2 votes ) plus the draw against the Hawks when Hodge was terrific. I honestly reckon that Lenny had a better year last year and would need 1-2 big games to be on par with last year IMO. The upside is that Riewoldt, who came 2nd for the Saints votes last year, has been MIA this year so the competition from him has gone and the competition for votes at the Saints has dropped off IMO.
There is also no Gazza running riot in this year's mix so 20 votes can win this year.

Actually Dal Santo came second for the saints last year. He would have tied with Hayes if he polled 3 votes instead of 0 in round 1 when general media consensus was that he was best on. In my opinion Dal Santo isnt without a hope of winning the medal at this stage, there are more likely chances out there, but it's the first time in a few years that I can see a $200 shot that still looks to have a chance. After a couple of quieter weeks and the massive amounts of Hayes love he has been completely overlooked.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Is there a historical connection between Coaches Votes and Brownlow winners? How did Cooney and Bartel, who were (slightly) unexpected Brownlow winners, go in their respective years?

I know Ablett smashed the votes last year and went on to win the Brownlow, and Swan looks like winning the Coaches Votes easily this year. Makes me nervous as I'm going big on Hayes. I don't think Swan will win due to his playing style and polling history, but the coaches are making me very uneasy.

 

[Frankie23]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

There seems to be a 'once bitten, twice shy' mentality surronding Swan this year, IMO people have to disregard last year. His form in the second half of the year has been sensational, and the difference is that he has recieved the media attention to recognise this feat. Through my analysis, he won't have a blistering start, but watching and analysing his past few games I can't see how he can be ignored. I, along with many fans, have walked away from games in awe of Swan, something I didn't really notice last year

Pendlebury is another who ahs been dominating. Going through his year there are 3 main points I have picked up.
- He has won medals, statistically medals = 3 votes and he won the ANZAC/Bob Rose medal. Also matches against Carlton he has really stood out, all in all he has had 4-5 BOG's in winning teams...
- He was stand in captain. Don't underestimate this fact, for 4-5? weeks there he was captain, the umpires would have noticed that a 22 year old was captain of the 'best' team in the comp, this would be sitting in their heads. He played well in this period, and his leadership skills were highlighted, a big tick.
- Contested Ball. We know the umps love the ball winners and Pendles has been the CP king this year at Collingwood. Going though his games and he is winning 40% of his ball in the contested manner, the fact he is tackling (2nd most at the club) and kicking more goals is the icing on the cake.
- Fourth, Swan and Pendles will own the votes this year. Last year they had Davis and Didak to contend with, however Leon has been non-exisistent and Didak doesn't poll well historically/was quiet in the first half of the year.

Out of interest I have Swan (17-26) and Pendlebury (16-25) vote-wise. Get on them!

 

[Frankie23]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Also Swallow > Harvey, has anyone been watching these two?

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Is there a historical connection between Coaches Votes and Brownlow winners? How did Cooney and Bartel, who were (slightly) unexpected Brownlow winners, go in their respective years?

I know Ablett smashed the votes last year and went on to win the Brownlow, and Swan looks like winning the Coaches Votes easily this year. Makes me nervous as I'm going big on Hayes. I don't think Swan will win due to his playing style and polling history, but the coaches are making me very uneasy.

Previous Winners

2003 - Nathan Buckley (Collingwood)
2004 - Warren Tredrea (Port Adelaide)
2005 - Barry Hall (Sydney)
2006 - Simon Goodwin (Adelaide) & Adam Goodes (Sydney)
2007 - Gary Ablett (Geelong)
2008 - Gary Ablett (Geelong)
2009 - Gary Ablett (Geelong)

2009 Leaderboard (Ablett Brownlow year)

1 Gary Ablett (Geel) 104
2 Chris Judd (Carl) 91
3 Nick Riewoldt (St K) 83
4 Nick Dal Santo (St K) 82
5 Jonathan Brown (BL) 80
6 Dane Swan (Coll) 78
7 Paul Chapman (Geel) 72
8 Sam Mitchell (Haw) 70
9 Lenny Hayes (St K) 69
10 Matthew Boyd (WB) 67

2008 Top 5 (Cooney Brownlow year)

Gary Ablett 92
Buddy Franklin 87
Matthew Pavlich 81
Brent Harvey 75
Jimmy Bartel 74

Thats all I could find.

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

2008 Top 5 (Bartel Brownlow year)

Gary Ablett 92
Buddy Franklin 87
Matthew Pavlich 81
Brent Harvey 75
Jimmy Bartel 74

Thats all I could find.

Cooney won in 2008, Bartel was 2007.

It is actually really hard to track down the coaches Association results, a lot harder than i thought it would be...

 

[Jobe Watson]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Cheers for those figures guys.

Doesn't seem as though they are too related. To see that Cooney wasn't in the top 5 when he won the Brownlow, and that Hayes placed top 3 in Brownlow but could only muster 9th in the Coaches Votes makes me feel a little better about this year.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

FWIW, Hayes has not had statistically as good a year this year as last which IMO combined with the Saints winning less games means he will struggle to win.

 

[frantelle]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

FWIW, Hayes has not had statistically as good a year this year as last which IMO combined with the Saints winning less games means he will struggle to win.

This year
Wins
25<disposals<30 = 6
disposals>30 = 3

Losses
disposals > 30 = 3

Last Year
Wins
25<disposals<30 = 2
disposals>30 = 11

Losses
disposals>30= 0

I think you might be correct. All these games are potential polling games, if you extrapolate this years polling games would be high 13's, so for arguments sake say 14 games. Last year he had 13 potential polling games, but 85% of his potential polling games last year were wins with 30+ disposals. This year its around 50%.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK out of interest, how many do you have didak on??

10, surely he can't knock over Swan and Pendlebury at Coll.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Remember a big part of the award is fairest in the umpires eyes!!

Goddard and chapman will never win the brownlow for this reason they are always spraying the umps and polling history shows it.

Hayes has this aspect over the contenders this year. he always hands the ball back to the ump and hardly disputes anything. All reports tell me he is a really champion bloke off the field too. Judd was like this too until he got sick of taggers and had brain fades. Swan seems to be okay nowdays but his past and tats go against him in the nice guy stakes

hodge and sandilands are unknowns. Hodgey seems a little arrogant at times but might be nice to umps who knows...big sandi seems to be a BFG and has polled well in losses before

thoughts?

Yep I agree with all that really.....all roads head towards LENNY !!! Unbelievable really that he's $21. The TAB clearly don't rate him considering my bet this week and they haven't turned the dial at all.