Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

what must be noted is that a collingwood player getting votes is detrimental to a different collingwood player getting votes.

With this is mind, a Swan-Pendlebury or Ablett-Selwood quinella would expect to pay more than it should, according to correct formula.

 

[half_back_flank]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

What do you guys reckon if you were me ? Let Swan ride to fair extent like I did last year or get on him and almost guarantee a win.
Like all of you the team multis, group bet multis and quinellas is what I am waiting for but I might as well try to win big on the winner and the delay in other options has kept me pumping funds into the winner.

If you can almost guarantee a win, and with the sort of money you have invested BK, i would hedge with Swan. Thats just my opinion, and it is largely shaped by the amount of cash you have on other combinations.

Looking back through this thread, i see you have been vocal on Swan not being able to win and as a bloke who has watched him every week (sometimes twice) for years, i agree with you. He is a fantastic player who has been close to the best player this year, but he is an unfashionable player who quietly racks them up. He is highly effective but with an awkward looking kicking and hand balling style, i just don't think he will be able to catch the umpires eyes and impress them enough to win a Brownlow. That's just my two cents.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

If you can almost guarantee a win, and with the sort of money you have invested BK, i would hedge with Swan. Thats just my opinion, and it is largely shaped by the amount of cash you have on other combinations.

Looking back through this thread, i see you have been vocal on Swan not being able to win and as a bloke who has watched him every week (sometimes twice) for years, i agree with you. He is a fantastic player who has been close to the best player this year, but he is an unfashionable player who quietly racks them up. He is highly effective but with an awkward looking kicking and hand balling style, i just don't think he will be able to catch the umpires eyes and impress them enough to win a Brownlow. That's just my two cents.

Thanks for your view and being a Collingwood man you have seen a lot more of him than I have.
You make a very good point re him being a bit unfashionable. It would be fair to sat that in their winning years that Gazza, Cooney, Judd, Black, Goodes, Cousins etc. were all either really silky, broke lines as ball carriers or were both.
The key is to consider then who ticks the same box this year or stands out a lot. I'd say that Hayes does ( in his own way ), Judd ( not as much as he used to at WC ), Pendlebury does ( maybe not too flashy but is silky ), Goddard does but argues too much IMO, Ablett does but nothing like last year and will suffer from the season after winning factor, Selwood does but maybe not as good as last 2 years, Sandilands stands out I suppose as he's so damn tall. Hodge stands out and is a good ball user / carrier.
On this basis I'm comfortable with Hayes, Judd, Hodge and Pendlebury.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I'm comfortable with Hayes, Judd, Hodge and Pendlebury.

Do you think that Hayes and Pendles are both ones to go for at the odds for most team votes at this stage?? Im thinking of including Hayes into a lot of multis and Pendles into a few to add some value..

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Do you think that Hayes and Pendles are both ones to go for at the odds for most team votes at this stage?? Im thinking of including Hayes into a lot of multis and Pendles into a few to add some value..

Good evening Goodesy. I didn't think of that but I suppose that if I think they can win the medal then they'd have to be big chances to win their team votes.
However, the caution is that if for example Hayes won the medal and Pendlebury polled only 10 votes then Pendles would go down at Coll and I'd still be happy.
At this stage I'd be on Hayes in a fair few multis but would probably leave Coll out. As much as I'm thinking Swan probably won't win I'm not silly and know that he sure could win after the year he's had so would be foolish to take him on too much.
Surely a bit of nice value of Hayes, Pendles, into Goodes, Thompson, Harvey or similar.

 

[Modra93]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hey BK with your quinellas do you usually pick a number of players and invest in all their options... for instance if you think Swan, Hodge, Hayes, Pendlebury and Judd are your top 5 will you invest in:

Swan-Hodge, Swan-Pendle, Swan-Hayes....
Hodge-Pendle, Hodge-Hayes....

and so on? and also in this instance would you not include the likes of Swan, whom you may think can win, yet due to low odds wont win you big bucks for a quinella

 

[Uncle Carlos]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Thanks for your view and being a Collingwood man you have seen a lot more of him than I have.
You make a very good point re him being a bit unfashionable. It would be fair to sat that in their winning years that Gazza, Cooney, Judd, Black, Goodes, Cousins etc. were all either really silky, broke lines as ball carriers or were both.
The key is to consider then who ticks the same box this year or stands out a lot. I'd say that Hayes does ( in his own way ), Judd ( not as much as he used to at WC ), Pendlebury does ( maybe not too flashy but is silky ), Goddard does but argues too much IMO, Ablett does but nothing like last year and will suffer from the season after winning factor, Selwood does but maybe not as good as last 2 years, Sandilands stands out I suppose as he's so damn tall. Hodge stands out and is a good ball user / carrier.
On this basis I'm comfortable with Hayes, Judd, Hodge and Pendlebury.

Might as well chuck my 2 cents in as well!! Firstly let me agree with above, that swan is super player, and even though I don't think he'll win, he has to be a massive chance and to back big against him is a massive risk. But I see a few reasons that he won't win... Firstly as mentioned, he is not a fashionable player. Furthermore, i know that he has been really effective this year, but the fact that in the past he has not been a great user will likely count against him, along with his ungainly style.

Another thing that will probably go against him, ridiculous as this sounds, is his consistency. Collingwood win by 100 points, swan has 35 touches. Collingwood win by 50 points, he has 35 touches. They win by 1 point, he has 35 touches. they lose by whatever margin, he has 35 touches. If he plays the same game every week, the umpires are looking at the x factor... more often than not, thats pendlebury gliding through packs, or didak shrugging off opponents to drive a goal from the 50.

3rd reason and most important reason, to expand on what i've said above, and mostly what BK said said about what players tick the boxes. I agree with the characteristics that previous brownlow medallists have. but IMO the key aspect is left out... leadership. The men that win brownlow medals are those that inspire, that can lift a struggling side squarely on their shoulders and be the difference in a match. Look at Judd when the chips are down at the blues... look at luke hodge! He has been the difference in so many hawks games.. however the hawks up and down form might hurt him. Then we come to the man that I love Lenny Hayes. When the chips are down at the saints, which they have been a few times this year, they look to Lenny to inspire, to lead from the front to turn a game around with a series of contested balls, courage, ferocious takcles, and drag the saints over the line. From the match report on afl.com.au

"ST KILDA has notched an important 35-point win over West Coast at Subiaco Oval on Sunday, snapping a two-game losing run and reviving its faltering season.

Defeat would have plunged the 2009 grand finalists into crisis, and they appeared destined for their fourth loss in five games early in the third quarter with the Eagles clearly in control and 17 points clear.

However, inspirational leader Lenny Hayes turned the tide in St Kilda’s favour as the visitors rediscovered their best football and kicked nine of the game’s last 10 goals" http://www.afl.com.au/match results/tabid/11433/default.aspx

That my friends, is the stuff that wins brownlows... and having written all this i'm going to rest my aching fingers, then probably double the money i've invested in hayes because i've talked myself into it

 

[Rhino5]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I basically ignored Swan last year and did pretty well out of doing so. This year I think is a bit more fraught - we were all shocked at how poorly he polled last year and I can't help thinking there will be some making up for that, even subconsciously by the umpires. Also, in my view, he's had a better year and there will be a smaller spread of Collingwood votes.

Right now at 3.50ish, Swan is pretty short and I don't think I can bring myself to back him when the likes of Pendles, Selwood, Judd and Hayes (proven vote getters) are still around the $20 mark. I'm kicking myself a bit for not getting on Swan when he was still in double figures three weeks ago. Would have been a nice hedge to have while looking elsewhere.

I'm also starting to wonder at what point GAJ becomes value again - he is out to around $6.50, which is his longest price of the year. I have avoided him so far, but he's a lot more appealing at that price than around $2....and we know he gets noticed.

I do think the aforementioned four at around the $20 mark are the value (with Goddard and Boyd also being a little overlooked, though I don't really think they can win it), but I'm not confident that any of them will beat Swan, or even Hodge for that matter.

Finally, I know they won't win due to competition on their own teams, but Chapman at $81 and Didak at $201 are at pretty amazing odds considering how good they have been this year.

 

[Uncle Carlos]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I basically ignored Swan last year and did pretty well out of doing so. This year I think is a bit more fraught - we were all shocked at how poorly he polled last year and I can't help thinking there will be some making up for that, even subconsciously by the umpires. Also, in my view, he's had a better year and there will be a smaller spread of Collingwood votes.

Right now at 3.50ish, Swan is pretty short and I don't think I can bring myself to back him when the likes of Pendles, Selwood, Judd and Hayes (proven vote getters) are still around the $20 mark. I'm kicking myself a bit for not getting on Swan when he was still in double figures three weeks ago. Would have been a nice hedge to have while looking elsewhere.

I'm also starting to wonder at what point GAJ becomes value again - he is out to around $6.50, which is his longest price of the year. I have avoided him so far, but he's a lot more appealing at that price than around $2....and we know he gets noticed.

I do think the aforementioned four at around the $20 mark are the value (with Goddard and Boyd also being a little overlooked, though I don't really think they can win it), but I'm not confident that any of them will beat Swan, or even Hodge for that matter.

Finally, I know they won't win due to competition on their own teams, but Chapman at $81 and Didak at $201 are at pretty amazing odds considering how good they have been this year.

Agree with the thought that the umpires are likely to make up for not giving him votes last year. Disagree with the thought that there will be less spread of votes this year at the pies. Pendles has been equally, if not more, destructive than last year. And last year didak had a purple patch, with a couple of vote polling games scattered. He is in a purple patch right now, and there are certainly ealier games where he has done enough to poll. Harry O'Brien has destroyed teams off half back, and Luke Ball will certainly poll some votes. better add thomas and beams to that list!

 

[frantelle]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

The difference this year to Swan is that he is receiving a lot more media attention then the past 3 years combined. Last year unless you were a die hard AFL fan you didn't really know who he was, now he is being forced down your throat by commentators and journalists so he could already be in the back of umpires minds. He has proven he is capable of polling strongly.

I think its dangerous to write him off completely and it could go the other way, I'm sure he has multiple 30+ disposal games where no one has him down for a vote but he is capable of sneaking a couple purely by the weight of how many games he has performed well in.

I think its dangerous to completely write him off

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd et al. odds won't last too long if this is true

Manager says Sandilands has stress fracture

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/7750745/manager-says-sandilands-has-stress-fracture/

Enlarge photo

BREAKING NEWS: Fremantle's Aaron Sandilands could miss the AFL finals following reports from his management company that the giant ruckman has a stress fracture in his foot.

According to Sandilands' management's website, "fears are mounting the game's most influential big man has an injury that could derail" the Dockers' September campaign.

Although the club declared Sandilands has the foot affliction plantar fasciitis, which forced him to miss Fremantle's clash with North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium, the management company has speculated the 27-year-old has a "hot spot" in his foot.

A similar injury has ruled out small forward Hayden Ballantyne for at least the next two weeks and there are doubts whether he will be ready for the Dockers' first round final.

Fremantle coach Mark Harvey said earlier in the week he would wait until tomorrow before determining Sandilands' immediate fate.
The Dockers will announce their team for Saturday's home clash with Sydney later this afternoon

 

[Uncle Carlos]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK out of interest, how many do you have didak on??

 

[bombersaway]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Just out of curiosity what do people have in regard to how many games a player has polled in ?
One thing that I do at the end of round 22 is count games i've given votes in so example maybe Hayes 9 games a mix of 2's and 3's say and multiply the 9 by 2 to see what could be more accurate so insted of 24 he might have atleast 18 you would think,

then take pendulbury who and I'm just guessing cos I don't have my computer with me could have polled in 10 games but with say 4 x 1 votes so then I end up with 20

I've read before somewhere bk where u day something about knocking 2 or 3 off a players score is this another thing that u have ever tried?

In regard to your question about swan I think he's still a risk to win it but he has to be close although the comparison to Buckley and the back page write up might just halt he"s run if the umps mark him harder again

personally I think Hayes is the man and with 3 wind possibly to finish on I recon he's looking great with collingwood I think that the 3 of them would be very close and same with the big 4 at Geelong sandilands has no hope and hodge is a bit unknown as he hasn't polled well recently and he only has that 10 game block to poll in

that leaves Hayes and Judd who I think both are clear standouts in the team they play for both poll well and both have everything required to be a winner (Judd again)

I'm really glad I've stuck to my guns and have been on Lenny all year (10 times ) I think I need to back Judd over the next 3 and will be confident that one of those to will win

 

[bombersaway]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK out of interest, how many do you have didak on??

I'm hearing u there I recon those odds r massive off the price prob won't win but most coll votes maybe?

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd et al. odds won't last too long if this is true

Manager says Sandilands has stress fracture

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/7750745/manager-says-sandilands-has-stress-fracture/

In a way i hope this is true, shit for my DT with no trade left but good for my multi bets with Barlow added for some great value.

 

[Uncle Carlos]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I'm hearing u there I recon those odds r massive off the price prob won't win but most coll votes maybe?

Thats my thoughts exactly. I think we all know the possibilities for swan and pendles, but one possibility that has not been explored very much is that the votes could look VERY similar to last year, except inflated due to the extra games they've won. Especially considering his form, gotta slide a bit on it this week i think!

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Didak got 12 votes last year, however his form has been better this year and they've won more games. No reason why his votes won't increase.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd et al. odds won't last too long if this is true

Manager says Sandilands has stress fracture

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/7750745/manager-says-sandilands-has-stress-fracture/

In a way i hope this is true, shit for my DT with no trade left but good for my multi bets with Barlow added for some great value.

But a Dockers spokesman told thewest.com.au there was no substance to the report.

"The report is wrong. He does not have a stress fracture. That is categorical," the spokesman said.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/7750745/sandilands-cleared-of-stress-fracture/

 

[bombersaway]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Thats my thoughts exactly. I think we all know the possibilities for swan and pendles, but one possibility that has not been explored very much is that the votes could look VERY similar to last year, except inflated due to the extra games they've won. Especially considering his form, gotta slide a bit on it this week i think!

Also I think that the fact he has cleaned up his off feild image will help a lot I think there's a bit too bk's thoughts on swans tatts and any player the doesn't fit the nice guy mould with exceptions being cousins and maybe ricciutio look at some past winners and the type of person they are bartell, cooney, gooses, black even woewoodin have never heard a bad thing about any of them no off feild stuff they are all fairly much flawless in that regard pendulbury is a bit of an unknown for mine but I"d be happy to have a little on didak polling better than swan

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Not surprising he is having problems given he was virtually having 90% TOG week in week out.

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Also I think that the fact he has cleaned up his off feild image will help a lot I think there's a bit too bk's thoughts on swans tatts and any player the doesn't fit the nice guy mould with exceptions being cousins and maybe ricciutio look at some past winners and the type of person they are bartell, cooney, gooses, black even woewoodin have never heard a bad thing about any of them no off feild stuff they are all fairly much flawless in that regard pendulbury is a bit of an unknown for mine but I"d be happy to have a little on didak polling better than swan

Remember a big part of the award is fairest in the umpires eyes!!

Goddard and chapman will never win the brownlow for this reason they are always spraying the umps and polling history shows it.

Hayes has this aspect over the contenders this year. he always hands the ball back to the ump and hardly disputes anything. All reports tell me he is a really champion bloke off the field too. Judd was like this too until he got sick of taggers and had brain fades. Swan seems to be okay nowdays but his past and tats go against him in the nice guy stakes

hodge and sandilands are unknowns. Hodgey seems a little arrogant at times but might be nice to umps who knows...big sandi seems to be a BFG and has polled well in losses before

thoughts?

 

[AG]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

big sandi seems to be a BFG

Big ****ing giant??

 

[popathon]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

The difference this year to Swan is that he is receiving a lot more media attention then the past 3 years combined. Last year unless you were a die hard AFL fan you didn't really know who he was, now he is being forced down your throat by commentators and journalists so he could already be in the back of umpires minds. He has proven he is capable of polling strongly.

I think its dangerous to write him off completely and it could go the other way, I'm sure he has multiple 30+ disposal games where no one has him down for a vote but he is capable of sneaking a couple purely by the weight of how many games he has performed well in.

I think its dangerous to completely write him off

Good points. Not sure if it's a real indication but Swan is smashing the coaches award, something he's never really dominated. Personally i think the umpires will 'make up' for his lack of votes last year but Didak, Pendles, Beams and Daisy could easily steal a few 1's or 2's. Also has anyone noticed a correlation between certain umpires and brownlow votes?
Cheers for the input in this thread, being overseas for 3 months has made it difficult.

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Big ****ing giant??

haha yep as well friendly?

BFFG

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Good points. Not sure if it's a real indication but Swan is smashing the coaches award, something he's never really dominated. Personally i think the umpires will 'make up' for his lack of votes last year but Didak, Pendles, Beams and Daisy could easily steal a few 1's or 2's. Also has anyone noticed a correlation between certain umpires and brownlow votes?
Cheers for the input in this thread, being overseas for 3 months has made it difficult.

i tried to look at trends last year but its too hard as i needed the last 3 years....the umpires do release a word doccument with each umpire for each game on their website but its unreliable...there also might be a thread on here too but dont quote me on it