Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[WeetBixKid]

The best anchors are starting to pay pretty low ... I'm considering just leaving them out & doubling my bets. If the Centrebet odds are similar to what Tab release, Thompson + Watson only increase your return by $2.20. Risking two players for that extra 0.10% you get back compared to just doubling your bets doesn't seem worth it. Tossing up whether to just forget those 2 & double my bets, or use someone like Brown with one of them to make the anchors increase your return by 2.50 - 3

 

[echelon22]

Here`s my update

Leaderboard Current
G Ablett 26
D Swan 25
S Pendlebury 25
M Boyd 23
C Judd 23
L Hodge22
J Selwood 20
P Chapman 19
L Hayes 19
L Montagna 17
T Boak17

Team Votes

Adelaide
Thompson 14
Goodwin 8
Douglas8


Brisbane
Brown 12
Rischitelli 9
Black 8
Power 6
Carlton
Judd 23
Simpson 11
Scotland 9

Collingwood
Pendlebury 25
Swan 25
Didak 13

Essendon
Watson 12
Winderlich 7
Stanton 7
Hille 7


Fremantle
Barlow 16
Sandilands 10
Mundy 8
Pavlich 8


Geelong
Ablett 26
Selwood 20
Chapman 19
Bartel 15

Hawthorn
Hodge 22
Franklin 12
Sewell 9

Melbourne
Sylvia 13
Davey 8
Moloney 7
Green 6

North Melbourne
Harvey 146
Swallow 12


Port Adelaide
Boak 17
Cassisi 12
Pearce 7


Richmond
Newman 7
Deledio 7
J Riewoldt 7
Tuck 6

St kilda
Hayes 19
Montagna 17
Dal Santo 16


Sydney
Jack 14
Goodes 13


Western Bulldogs
Boyd 23
Cooney 13
Gia 11

West Coast Eagles
LeCras 6
Priddis 5
Naitanui 5

Ablett winning seems to be the consensus around here. If anyone`s interested my Boyd breakdown I have him with 3 in rounds 8,12,15,18, 2 votes in rounds 2,3,11,13,16, 1 vote in round 1 and a chance in 14 and 22. I really consider Boyd a massive chance to knock Ablett off, I feel he has been much more noticeable this year, he has turned his kick to handball ratio from handballing more last year to kicking a lot more than handballs if that means anything.
Surprised not to see you guys planning to take more risks with your multis, I will be going all out, only going for ones at least $300 odds.

Nice to see a count with something a bit different in Boyd, be interesting to see how he polls on the night. I think it's a big ask for Swan and Pendlebury to get 50 votes between them though.

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

God what a depressing round:

24 - Ablett
23 - Swan
22 - Judd, J.Selwood
21 - Pendlebury
19 - Hodge
18 - Montagna
17 - Boyd, Hayes

Here's hoping some sort of Steve Bradbury event occurs in which GAJ and Swan are ruled ineligible at 5pm on the 20th, with Selwood/Judd/Pendles rocking through to clean up the prize.

Club Leaders:

Adel: Thompson (15), Douglas (11), Johncock (6)
BL: Brown (13), Rischitelli (10), Black (7)
Carl: Judd (22), Murphy (9), Gibbs (7)
Coll: Swan (23), Pendlebury (21), Didak (14)
Ess: Watson (13), Winderlich (7), Hille (6)
Fre: Sandilands (14), Barlow (14), Pavlich (9), Mundy (9)
Geel: Ablett (24), J.Selwood (22), Chapman (15)
Haw: Hodge (19), Mitchell (16), Franklin (11)
Melb: Sylvia (9), Moloney (8), J.McDonald (8)
NM: Harvey (15), Swallow (15), Wells (6)
Rich: Riewoldt (9), Tuck (7), Deledio (7)
Port: Boak (15), Cassisi (9), Rodan (9)
StK: Montagna (18), Hayes (17), Goddard (15)
Syd: Goodes (14), Jack (13), Bolton (11)
WCE: Priddis (9), LeCras (7), Embley (5), Naitanui (5)
WB: Boyd (17), Cooney (14), Giansiracusa (11)

 

[Hodges]

Selwood paying 7.50 over at Sportingbet to finish top 5. Seems to be just on the top 5 in most counts, might be worth a dabble. Judd top 5 at 3.75 is money for jam.

 

[WeetBixKid]

The more I read, the more I'm tempted to dabble in Fremantle & risk Pavlich. The spreadsheet 15 or so pages back is great- eagerly awaiting BK's count to make sure this could be a goer.

 

[Viktor]

I swear every second post I've read from you has been either a whinge or just general floggatry. I don't get multis in Canberra either. The reason is centrebet now have a contract with ACT, TAS & W.A TABS to provide them with odds- since Centrebet don't allow multis, neither will any of these areas. If you want them you have to sign up with NSW or VIC TAB which is run by Tabcorp who still do them.

mate, drive out to queanbo and get yourself a nswtab account. takes only minutes to set up.

acttab is so far behind the times it's not funny.

 

[WeetBixKid]

Yep, did that a few weeks ago

 

[Viktor]

And for those of you paranoid about betting agencies reading this thread - I can guarantee Neil Evans has one of his boys checking up on it regularly.

 

[Viktor]

Yep, did that a few weeks ago

and next time you're in melbourne, get a victab account also

 

[AjsGuns]

And for those of you paranoid about betting agencies reading this thread - I can guarantee Neil Evans has one of his boys checking up on it regularly.

Mind sharing how you know this? and how ofen "regulary" is. Would explain why Boak is into $4 from 8 (1 BOG doesnt 1/2 his pice) and Cassisi significant drop when he didnt poll.

 

[sasal1]

Somebody mentioned a few pages back that Sandilands has polled well in the last couple of years despite Freo's poor form.
I had a look at this, and compared to Pavlich in the corresponding years, and what i came up with is this...

Pavlich polled 10 last year (freo: 6 wins) and 17 in 2008 (freo: 4 wins).

His 2010 season is pretty comparable with his 2008 season, averages around 18 posessions, 5 marks and kicked 52 goals (67 in '08 only 28 in '09).

Have I missed something here? Or is Pav remarkably good value?!

 

[Athomas]

Somebody mentioned a few pages back that Sandilands has polled well in the last couple of years despite Freo's poor form.
I had a look at this, and compared to Pavlich in the corresponding years, and what i came up with is this...

Pavlich polled 10 last year (freo: 6 wins) and 17 in 2008 (freo: 4 wins).

His 2010 season is pretty comparable with his 2008 season, averages around 18 posessions, 5 marks and kicked 52 goals (67 in '08 only 28 in '09).

Have I missed something here? Or is Pav remarkably good value?!

I am the only one here with Pav leading fremantle as far as I can tell. His first half of the year was outstanding, I actually have him leading at Round 11 on 14 and only getting 3 votes for the 2nd half of the year.

Value but I don't like the freo market.

 

[sasal1]

I am the only one here with Pav leading fremantle as far as I can tell. His first half of the year was outstanding, I actually have him leading at Round 11 on 14 and only getting 3 votes for the 2nd half of the year.

Value but I don't like the freo market.

I have him tied on 15 with Barlow, agree with you though on his 2nd half of the season - i only have him picking up 4 more votes.

 

[brent-83]

Somebody mentioned a few pages back that Sandilands has polled well in the last couple of years despite Freo's poor form.
I had a look at this, and compared to Pavlich in the corresponding years, and what i came up with is this...

Pavlich polled 10 last year (freo: 6 wins) and 17 in 2008 (freo: 4 wins).

His 2010 season is pretty comparable with his 2008 season, averages around 18 posessions, 5 marks and kicked 52 goals (67 in '08 only 28 in '09).

Have I missed something here? Or is Pav remarkably good value?!

Fremantle is an interesting one, and one I'll probably stay away from.

Last year = Pavlich in the midfield instead of a mainly forward. 2008 and prior, he started forward and got votes by kicking 5+ goals in a losing side...

The question will be, will he get the top votes for 3-5 goals and 20+ possessions in a winning side, or will Barlow and Sandi get them? Easier to stand out by playing really well as a forward in a losing side.

 

[FootyStar#1]

can we get a few pav breakdowns?

I have him in only 1 BOG (round 3), 2 votes in rounds 1, 6 and 9 and 1 vote in rounds 4 and 7 and a good chance in round 22. Total 11 votes.

I have a feeling the major difference in Pav comparing him to the past few seasons is having Barlow in the team, if he polls well then Pav won't win Freo's votes.

 

[sasal1]

I have Pav BOG in rounds 3 & 6, and two votes in 7, 9, 15 & 22 and one in round 1. Total 15

 

[rowie343]

Somebody mentioned a few pages back that Sandilands has polled well in the last couple of years despite Freo's poor form.
I had a look at this, and compared to Pavlich in the corresponding years, and what i came up with is this...

Pavlich polled 10 last year (freo: 6 wins) and 17 in 2008 (freo: 4 wins).

His 2010 season is pretty comparable with his 2008 season, averages around 18 posessions, 5 marks and kicked 52 goals (67 in '08 only 28 in '09).

Have I missed something here? Or is Pav remarkably good value?!

I completely agree, everyone seems to be overlooking Pav. I have some on him to lead at halfway mark at $30 odds on betfair. Odds were just too good to refuse. His first half of the season was outstanding, he is a very good poller and he is the main star in the side. If Barlow gets overlooked somewhat (which I believe he will), then expect him to be up there after the round 11 count. But not much after that.

 

[rowie343]

Here is copy n paste from my previous post for pav's tally up to round 11:

I have pavlich on 13 votes total. Dont know how most dont have him on much. Here is how I gave him votes:
R1 - 1
R3 -3
R4 -1
R5- 1
R6- 2
R7- 2
R9 - 2
R10 - 1
He could possibly be on more.

 

[TimeFor11]

Bris most team votes out on TAB site!!!!! Bring it ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

[Pinnell]

Bris most team votes out on TAB site!!!!! Bring it ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

AS I suspected the odds are at a much more favourable percentage for the TAB relative to what Centrebet are offering. THere will be some disappointment on these boards.. Partially because they offer the "any other player" option too..

 

[Pinnell]

AS I suspected the odds are at a much more favourable percentage for the TAB relative to what Centrebet are offering. THere will be some disappointment on these boards.. Partially because they offer the "any other player" option too..

Judd $1.02. WHy they have Andrew Walker listed there is beyond me - it means Bryce Gibbs is in the "any other player"category..
At least Pendlebury is not bad value at $4.50

 

[Athomas]

Bris most team votes out on TAB site!!!!! Bring it ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

WHAAA!

If they are coming out can people please post them to here as they come out... With the codes too if you don't mind. Omg must get to a TAB, i'm panicking!

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Brown @1.60 very dissapointing. But Rischi @17 some value...?

 

[deledio_gun]

Judd 1.02
Brown 1.60
Thompson 1.40

Not looking like value so far!

 

[stretcharmstrong]

WHAAA!

If they are coming out can people please post them to here as they come out... With the codes too if you don't mind. Omg must get to a TAB, i'm panicking!

Will post the whole lot in one post when all are up mate