Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[carpsi]

Haven't started working out my multi's and done my number-crunching, however I was just playing around with a few combos, and this really caught my eye

S.Thompson/J.Brown/Judd/Watson/Boak/Hayes/Jack @591

Jack is the only player I consider a real risk, I had Boak and Hayes along with the others winning their team votes quite easily.

I was looking at this also.
I intend on ripping judd and jack out and using the rest in a 5 leg boxed multi.
26 combos I think.
If your not confident on jack take him out. Your multi will be 9 times less. But instead of putting $5 or $10 on the multi, put on 9 times more. ie $45 or $90. Depends on how aggressive you want to bet.

 

[Jake_14]

I've set it out so it's relatively safe in case 1 of Thompson/Watson/Jvolt/Brown don't win. However I'd like all of them to win really and if 2 lose I'm stuffed basically.

Thompson/Douglas (82/9) are in every Multi, as are Goodes/Jack (49/42) so at least 42 of my bets will lose, however it's about the payouts

10 bets winning but paying $1000 total isn't as good as 2 bets winning paying $1500 but of course it's good to have as many winning bets open.

Im very keen to do goodes/jack/ 50-50 aswell.. jack to add alot of value and juice up those multis..

Im tossing up between rodan/boak/cassisi also

 

[GoodesStuff]

I was looking at this also.
I intend on ripping judd and jack out and using the rest in a 5 leg boxed multi.
26 combos I think.
If your not confident on jack take him out. Your multi will be 9 times less. But instead of putting $5 or $10 on the multi, put on 9 times more. ie $45 or $90. Depends on how aggressive you want to bet.

Yeah I like these players

Another I might include is Pendles. People setting out their multis .. are you including Pendlebury in quite a few of them?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Whats the point in analysing all of this, if you cant place multi bets on. Is there anyway by living in WA that i can place mutli bets on for team leaders in the brownlow. I cant understand why they would let Victorian people put votes on the team leaders and not other states, there is simply no substance behind that. If they lost alot of money last year than why would they open the market to the highest popularity state of football in Victoria. Has anywhere in Victoria actually already opened up the most team votes multi option yet??

 

[Athomas]

Whats the point in analysing all of this, if you cant place multi bets on. Is there anyway by living in WA that i can place mutli bets on for team leaders in the brownlow. I cant understand why they would let Victorian people put votes on the team leaders and not other states, there is simply no substance behind that. If they lost alot of money last year than why would they open the market to the highest popularity state of football in Victoria. Has anywhere in Victoria actually already opened up the most team votes multi option yet??

Don't crush our dreams.

The difference is it hasn't opened at all in victoria, whereas in the WATab they've had the market for a few weeks now.

I'm sure there is a good chance we can multi them (In Vic anyway )

 

[twarby]

Whats the point in analysing all of this, if you cant place multi bets on. Is there anyway by living in WA that i can place mutli bets on for team leaders in the brownlow. I cant understand why they would let Victorian people put votes on the team leaders and not other states, there is simply no substance behind that. If they lost alot of money last year than why would they open the market to the highest popularity state of football in Victoria. Has anywhere in Victoria actually already opened up the most team votes multi option yet??

ah dunn well done, how i have not missed you.
if you bothered reading the last couple pages all your questions have been answered

 

[Brownlow King]

Whats the point in analysing all of this, if you cant place multi bets on. Is there anyway by living in WA that i can place mutli bets on for team leaders in the brownlow. I cant understand why they would let Victorian people put votes on the team leaders and not other states, there is simply no substance behind that. If they lost alot of money last year than why would they open the market to the highest popularity state of football in Victoria. Has anywhere in Victoria actually already opened up the most team votes multi option yet??

Everyone is speculating but we expect and have it on good advice that the TAB in Vic ( and associated States I gather ) will offer multis and put them up from Wed arvo onwards. I have no idea re Perth.
Options could be to open an online acct with Vic TAB, get a mate in Vic to put them on for you or come to Vic for a holiday.

 

[Uncle Carlos]

Bk i'm very interested to hear your thoughts on Jack vs Goodes... We all realise that Jack is value... but will you be including him in multi's etc? I'm personally hoping that Goodes has a reasonable lead. Regardless of the fact that Jack was probably BOG in the last month on most occasions, I find it hard to see a young guy like him polling maximum votes for 4 games straight, which he would likely need to do to get over goodes

 

[WeetBixKid]

Whats the point in analysing all of this, if you cant place multi bets on. Is there anyway by living in WA that i can place mutli bets on for team leaders in the brownlow. I cant understand why they would let Victorian people put votes on the team leaders and not other states, there is simply no substance behind that. If they lost alot of money last year than why would they open the market to the highest popularity state of football in Victoria. Has anywhere in Victoria actually already opened up the most team votes multi option yet??

I swear every second post I've read from you has been either a whinge or just general floggatry. I don't get multis in Canberra either. The reason is centrebet now have a contract with ACT, TAS & W.A TABS to provide them with odds- since Centrebet don't allow multis, neither will any of these areas. If you want them you have to sign up with NSW or VIC TAB which is run by Tabcorp who still do them.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Boak into $4 fuming!
i wonder if they read this thread? im prob paranoid but seriously...

If it is true that you guys did as well last year as you have all said then they would definitely be reading this thread. They would be aware of it, and it would irresponsible of them to ignore over 200 pages of forum discussion.

 

[WeetBixKid]

If it is true that you guys did as well last year as you have all said then they would definitely be reading this thread. They would be aware of it, and it would irresponsible of them to ignore over 200 pages of forum discussion.

I've been thinking this too, I wonder how high this page rates in a google search for Brown-low... Thomspon down into 1.36, Jack down into 8.50, Boak into 3.90 at ACTTAB.

 

[Brownlow King]

Bk i'm very interested to hear your thoughts on Jack vs Goodes... We all realise that Jack is value... but will you be including him in multi's etc? I'm personally hoping that Goodes has a reasonable lead. Regardless of the fact that Jack was probably BOG in the last month on most occasions, I find it hard to see a young guy like him polling maximum votes for 4 games straight, which he would likely need to do to get over goodes

I reckon that Goodes is 2 in front of Jack and 4 in front of Bolton.
I have a funny feeling that Goodes may disappoint this year but will not take him on. Jack looks like value but it will be hard to beat Goodes. Pity he isn't against Watson or similar.

 

[Brownlow King]

I've been thinking this too, I wonder how high this page rates in a google search for Brown-low... Thomspon down into 1.36, Jack down into 8.50, Boak into 3.90 at ACTTAB.

My brother in law found me on here ( guessed it was me ! ) via Google search for Brownlow so it must be easy to find.

 

[sblack]

I've been thinking this too, I wonder how high this page rates in a google search for Brown-low... Thomspon down into 1.36, Jack down into 8.50, Boak into 3.90 at ACTTAB.

Google search for '2010 Brownlow Medal' has us as he 7th hit. With many other BigFooty threads linked from this main thread.

 

[WeetBixKid]

My brother in law found me on here ( guessed it was me ! ) via Google search for Brownlow so it must be easy to find.

Haha, damn... Well, this thread is the 7th result if you search Brownlow Medal 2010. Hmm. Edit: Beaten to it...

 

[Athomas]

I reckon that Goodes is 2 in front of Jack and 4 in front of Bolton.
I have a funny feeling that Goodes may disappoint this year but will not take him on. Jack looks like value but it will be hard to beat Goodes. Pity he isn't against Watson or similar.

I have a feeling he will dissapoint as well. Things like his finger wave, his season not being as good and his free kick count going from 27,25,32 last 3 years to 15 this year and his frees against going to 27 from 15.

Can easily see him polling 9-13 which may be beaten by Jack.

The way I see it (assuming Jack beats Bolton) is by including both Jack and Goodes (but Jack at a lower stake) if Goodes win I still win (just a little less) and if Jack wins I win heaps.

Just my thoughts.

 

[carpsi]

Thoughts please guys

Thompson, Judd----> Hayes/Goddard/Montagna, Boak/Cassisi, Goodes/Jack, JR/Deledio


TJHBGR
TJHBGD
TJHBJR
TJHBJD
TJHCGR
TJHCGD
TJHCJR
TJHCJD

and so on. 24 combos $10 each $240 total. Worst dividend 60-1. Best Dividend 1611-1.
Hope this makes sense

Im not convinced on St Kilda. Im probably taking the precautionary approach

 

[Athomas]

Thoughts please guys

Thompson, Judd----> Hayes/Goddard/Montagna, Boak/Cassisi, Goodes/Jack, JR/Deledio


TJHBGR
TJHBGD
TJHBJR
TJHBJD
TJHCGR
TJHCGD
TJHCJR
TJHCJD

and so on. 24 combos $10 each $240 total. Worst dividend 60-1. Best Dividend 1611-1.
Hope this makes sense

Im not convinced on St Kilda. Im probably taking the precautionary approach

It's pretty safe. NDS/Rodan/Bolton/Tuck seem unlikely to beat them but not 100%

 

[AG]

That one finger waving incident is about all he has done this year. In 07 and 08 (when he got a few of his unworthy votes, which created the myth that he didn't deserve his two Brownlow's) he was more petulant and went through that angry pills phase where people were calling him a sniper. Goodes has acted more like a captain this year, so I don't thing his on field demeanor will cost him votes. I'd say 65% of his frees against have been for hands in the back, so it's not rough play/mouthing off that are getting him done.

Hard to predict when the end will come for Goodes in regards to polling well. There will probably come a time over the next 2-3 years when he just stops polling even if he is still playing well. Does that happen with good players?

 

[WeetBixKid]

Thoughts please guys

Thompson, Judd----> Hayes/Goddard/Montagna, Boak/Cassisi, Goodes/Jack, JR/Deledio


TJHBGR
TJHBGD
TJHBJR
TJHBJD
TJHCGR
TJHCGD
TJHCJR
TJHCJD

and so on. 24 combos $10 each $240 total. Worst dividend 60-1. Best Dividend 1611-1.
Hope this makes sense

Im not convinced on St Kilda. Im probably taking the precautionary approach

Like it! I'd be tempted to use Watson who's around 1.65 instead of Thompson who's around 1.35 though... or maybe be more aggressive & use both Thompson & Watson to really flesh it out. From what I've read I'd also be tempted to maybe, maybe cover Port 3 times (Boak/Cassisi/Rodan) & risk Montagna, it's a tough one though.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Google search for '2010 Brownlow Medal' has us as he 7th hit. With many other BigFooty threads linked from this main thread.

Call the thread 'BM '11' next year and we have nothing to worry about

 

[Naitashuey]

Here`s my update

Leaderboard Current
G Ablett 26
D Swan 25
S Pendlebury 25
M Boyd 23
C Judd 23
L Hodge22
J Selwood 20
P Chapman 19
L Hayes 19
L Montagna 17
T Boak17

Team Votes

Adelaide
Thompson 14
Goodwin 8
Douglas8


Brisbane
Brown 12
Rischitelli 9
Black 8
Power 6
Carlton
Judd 23
Simpson 11
Scotland 9

Collingwood
Pendlebury 25
Swan 25
Didak 13

Essendon
Watson 12
Winderlich 7
Stanton 7
Hille 7


Fremantle
Barlow 16
Sandilands 10
Mundy 8
Pavlich 8


Geelong
Ablett 26
Selwood 20
Chapman 19
Bartel 15

Hawthorn
Hodge 22
Franklin 12
Sewell 9

Melbourne
Sylvia 13
Davey 8
Moloney 7
Green 6

North Melbourne
Harvey 146
Swallow 12


Port Adelaide
Boak 17
Cassisi 12
Pearce 7


Richmond
Newman 7
Deledio 7
J Riewoldt 7
Tuck 6

St kilda
Hayes 19
Montagna 17
Dal Santo 16


Sydney
Jack 14
Goodes 13


Western Bulldogs
Boyd 23
Cooney 13
Gia 11

West Coast Eagles
LeCras 6
Priddis 5
Naitanui 5

Ablett winning seems to be the consensus around here. If anyone`s interested my Boyd breakdown I have him with 3 in rounds 8,12,15,18, 2 votes in rounds 2,3,11,13,16, 1 vote in round 1 and a chance in 14 and 22. I really consider Boyd a massive chance to knock Ablett off, I feel he has been much more noticeable this year, he has turned his kick to handball ratio from handballing more last year to kicking a lot more than handballs if that means anything.
Surprised not to see you guys planning to take more risks with your multis, I will be going all out, only going for ones at least $300 odds.

 

[weagles_fan]

Here`s my update

Leaderboard Current
G Ablett 26
D Swan 25
S Pendlebury 25
M Boyd 23
C Judd 23
L Hodge22
J Selwood 20
P Chapman 19
L Hayes 19
L Montagna 17
T Boak17

Team Votes

Adelaide
Thompson 14
Goodwin 8
Douglas8


Brisbane
Brown 12
Rischitelli 9
Black 8
Power 6
Carlton
Judd 23
Simpson 11
Scotland 9

Collingwood
Pendlebury 25
Swan 25
Didak 13

Essendon
Watson 12
Winderlich 7
Stanton 7
Hille 7


Fremantle
Barlow 16
Sandilands 10
Mundy 8
Pavlich 8


Geelong
Ablett 26
Selwood 20
Chapman 19
Bartel 15

Hawthorn
Hodge 22
Franklin 12
Sewell 9

Melbourne
Sylvia 13
Davey 8
Moloney 7
Green 6

North Melbourne
Harvey 146
Swallow 12


Port Adelaide
Boak 17
Cassisi 12
Pearce 7


Richmond
Newman 7
Deledio 7
J Riewoldt 7
Tuck 6

St kilda
Hayes 19
Montagna 17
Dal Santo 16


Sydney
Jack 14
Goodes 13


Western Bulldogs
Boyd 23
Cooney 13
Gia 11

West Coast Eagles
LeCras 6
Priddis 5
Naitanui 5

Ablett winning seems to be the consensus around here. If anyone`s interested my Boyd breakdown I have him with 3 in rounds 8,12,15,18, 2 votes in rounds 2,3,11,13,16, 1 vote in round 1 and a chance in 14 and 22. I really consider Boyd a massive chance to knock Ablett off, I feel he has been much more noticeable this year, he has turned his kick to handball ratio from handballing more last year to kicking a lot more than handballs if that means anything.
Surprised not to see you guys planning to take more risks with your multis, I will be going all out, only going for ones at least $300 odds.

6 votes per round average? Wow.

 

[Grimmjow]

6 votes per round average? Wow.

Its a typo, everyone knows that. grow up.

 

[lions_den]

North Melbourne
Harvey 146

Seriously though I hope your count is accurate.