Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[KardiniaPark]

Are you sure Kardinia? From memory the thread started a lot of its Brownlow/Premiership betting at around rounds 16-18. I think you should reconsider.

Well...I didnt back Judd till the day of the brownlow. The first bet's i put on was the team multi's two weeks after round 22, I dont think you really need to risk it by betting with still 1/4 of the season to go. Also the only bets available then would be win & each way anyway. The fun part is the MUlti's so im happy to wait it out . Thats the plan, doesnt mean i wont cave in at some stage

 

[KardiniaPark]

I also agree that ablett is unders. They have done fairly well with the experienced players they traded for but there will be a hell of a lot of kids propping up the rest of the team. I just cant see them winning more then 5-6 games. There is just no way he will poll enough and as mentioned many times he isnt going to get the same support around the ball that he did at Geelong.

 

[smashing]

Selwood definitely looks like the best bet for me before seeing a game. He was right up there with them last year and should be the main focus of attention for the umps now ablett is gone.

I can also see pendlebury taking it to the next level this year.

Has anyone on here got any experience in laying on betfair? It might be worthwhile looking into backing someone like jobe watson at 50's then hopefully laying him off at 30's later on. I'm not sure how much someone would have to shorten to make it worthwhile.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

10k was won from my bet on Judd/Collingwood in round 16ish..
would be a fool not to bet during the year, as multis arnt a certanity to occur.

Absolutely agree. I reckon we won't get most-team-vote multis from TAB this year, but they (or some other agency or book) should allow the BL/Prem doubles, and the value for them is right about rounds 15-18 imo.

 

[Colson]

Hey guys, this is my first time on this thread, looking forward to all the advice and opinions, last year was my first year betting on the brownlow and I put on a couple of multis and cleaned up big time, so il be starting to put bets on a few rounds in, is that when people usually start? I think Jack is mega value at the moment

 

[s1bbald]

I think a few rounds in, any bets made should be an exception, instead of an intention. There are still far too many variables in what is now a 24 week season, and it would be farfetched to believe any money placed in Rnd 6 could be placed wisely. Any bet placed, barring exceptional circumstances, would be a reactionary bet, and as my continued failing in Fantasy Footy would suggest, if you've missed the boat, there's no point trying to jump on. That said, if someone of the ilk of Judd or Swan has 5 consecutive shockers in the first 5 rounds, and their price balloons, sure, sneak a cheeky 10-20 dollars on. Or, on the other edge of the scale, if Colin Sylvia is off to a blinder and the bookies are yet to catch on, why not? However, I think unless you are on to a seriously good thing, all funds should be saved for the second half of the year. Besides, any bets placed in the first half of the season may be tied up for well over 4-5 months. It is highly likely that you will want access to that money when there's value everywhere come Sept. 1. Just some food for thought .

P.S. Welcome!

 

[Colson]

Thank alot for that mate, il prob just chuck a 10 on Jack and selwood now and wait for a while, any tips from you? Or will you just sit back and wait?

 

[s1bbald]

This time of year for me is about creating a supercoach side that'll win me $50k . Like I've recommended to a few others, going through the old threads (long and tedious they may be) and sifting the 5% of good info from the 95% filler could prove to be invaluable in 4 months time. As for punting tips, I've got an eye on Bryce Gibbs, pending a release into the midfield. But that's heavy bias talking there...

 

[HolyWars]

I'll be putting some on Barlow @ those odds

 

[jimmyclean]

I'll be putting some on Barlow @ those odds

Considering Barlow might not play till halfway through the year I might not be so quick to place that bet.

 

[CamTinley]

Considering Barlow might not play till halfway through the year I might not be so quick to place that bet.

I don't think he'll be putting the bet on, hence the

I hope you're right about Barlow coming back half way through the year. I'd hate to see him "redamage" that leg by being selected in the 22 in Round 1.

 

[Colson]

Freo would be insane to start barlow, I doubt it will happen. I had a good look at alot of players last night and I think selwood is probably the best value there, just my opinion but on current form he will be hard to beat, proven vote getter even with ablett stealing votes and an umpire favourite, being th main man at Geelong now I think he will be hard to beat, that's obviously without seeing anything so far though. Swan and pendles will be stealing alot of votes from each other with plenty of players like didak and Thomas taking the odd 3s an 2s here and there. Can't see Judd winning again either and ablett won't be in enough winning games to get enough votes

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Freo would be insane to start barlow, I doubt it will happen. I had a good look at alot of players last night and I think selwood is probably the best value there, just my opinion but on current form he will be hard to beat, proven vote getter even with ablett stealing votes and an umpire favourite, being th main man at Geelong now I think he will be hard to beat, that's obviously without seeing anything so far though. Swan and pendles will be stealing alot of votes from each other with plenty of players like didak and Thomas taking the odd 3s an 2s here and there. Can't see Judd winning again either and ablett won't be in enough winning games to get enough votes

That's actually a pretty good, concise summary of how I'm feeling at the moment. I also reckon K Jack could be a reasonable value bet this year, should be your main man in the centre this year!

 

[Colson]

Good to know I'm not the only one thinking it haha, i would like to see Jacks odds to make top 5, hopefully There will be a fair bit of value in that considering the tab have started him at 51.

 

[Moore26]

I think Cyril Rioli will win it this year

 

[Colson]

He is an interesting option, A mates already gone down and put money on him. Who will take votes off him... Hodgey for sure, he isnt usually a vote getter but i think now with the captaincy he will get recognition, buddy will get votes, and Mitchel I would say thats the main vote takers theres Rioli, Hodge, Buddy and Mitchell. Burgoyne poll aswell but not as high as those 4. The main thing is wether the umps notice hodge more now cos of the captaincy because he had a stand out year last year. He still got about 16 but he barely had a bad game. I think from memory Hodge polled about 10 more votes than Rioli last year

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Good to know I'm not the only one thinking it haha, i would like to see Jacks odds to make top 5, hopefully There will be a fair bit of value in that considering the tab have started him at 51.

Currently @11 on betfair.

 

[Colson]

Cheers mate, sportsbet doesn't have that option yet

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Judd will win it again, if he could win it missing the first three games of the year, he will blitz it playing the full compliment of games this year

 

[Rustof]

Judd will win it again, if he could win it missing the first three games of the year, he will blitz it playing the full compliment of games this year

If Gibbs returns to the middle and Murphy is playing injury free, they could take quite a few votes away from him. Depending on how GC go, Gazza might pick up his 2nd.

 

[CamTinley]

Judd will win it again, if he could win it missing the first three games of the year, he will blitz it playing the full compliment of games this year

Judd has only missed having a visit to the Tribunal in two seasons, 2006 + 2010. He unbelievably didn't get cited in the Fremantle game in 2010 when he split open Pavlich's face with his elbow (he actually got votes in this game despite being beaten by McPhee).

I think he will probably not be so lucky next time so I wouldn't be too confident but who knows, Carlton should win more games this year.

 

[Colson]

Totally agree, and after the uproar that he wasnt suspended for Pav incident he wont be getting off lightly on anything

 

[weagles_fan]

What is Kerr paying?

 

[twarby]

What is Kerr paying?

101/1

way unders

il give you 501/1

 

[weagles_fan]

101/1

way unders

il give you 501/1

He is a known vote getter so if he could return to old form (I know it's a big if) and WC win 8-10 games he is a show.