Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[Dunn - Well Done]

I think we should be looking at the betting when you can offlay or layoff whatever it is. EG: People by player X at 100-1 and he has a ripping start and is sold when hes 20-1.

Those more experienced and knowledgable of the concept should help us in understanding it all, eg: how much a player needs to drop and how the whole calcualtions work. I can see Jack going into 10-1 and than i offlat him after buying him at 50-1.

 

[StringyDog]

He is a known vote getter so if he could return to old form (I know it's a big if) and WC win 8-10 games he is a show.

Since 2000 only 2 winners have come from outside top 4 Judd and Ricciuto, and both were in top 8, the days of winning brownlow from crap team outside finals is gone with umpires heavily favouring winning team.

Also Kerr no longer has protection from Judd/Cousins/Embley and can't handle being the top dog. Found out to be just a good ordinary player.

 

[Kahuna]

He is a known vote getter so if he could return to old form (I know it's a big if) and WC win 8-10 games he is a show.

Kerr hasn't been in good form for 5 years, if he has another rubbish this year I think that will the end for him. Wouldn't bother wasting my money.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I personally think it could very well be Matthew Boyds year. He polled extremely impressivily last season so the umpires definitly noticed his workman like efforts and quiet achieving ability.

Alot of people are saying Hodge has a chance because hes captain, well tell me who polled well above there skin last season and also is captain this year of the dogs??

Ill be putting early money on him and that will just about be it, maybe Jack. Although IMO he aint capable of winning it, i owuld only pick him known he could drop severly in price and than outlay him, but i still have no answer as to how that works.

There ZERO point in betting for Kerr. He wont play the first 6 games likely.

 

[s1bbald]

DWD makes the best point in the thread so far! Regardless of any ability, polling history, etc. etc. You simply can't poll votes if you aren't on the field! (Although I heard Judd almost pipped Lenny Hayes in the 1st Norm Smith last year for his performance in his lap of honour...) That's enough reason to put a line through him, weagles. A few people are even saying he's only one setback away from being completely finished! His best days are done.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I dont think Kerr will play a game this year

 

[twarby]

Boyds my only main bet pre season as his odds were stupidly high, 51s was too high for a proven vote getter, and also a recently made captain.

hes since moved into low 30s.
his first couple months are fairly easy, Bulldogs should push for the 4, and he gets 3s

ticks all the boxes.. i expect him to be possibly sub 15 by May

 

[cammania]

Serious post.

I am putting my money on Nick Reiwoldt. No jokes or funny stuff. Its where im putting my money.

Shuey in a year or two though

 

[Frankie23]

Can't wait for this year, I missed the first 11 rounds of last year (doing my own poll) and still made a very tidy profit.

If everyone puts a bit of effort in, it is easy money!

My first thought this year is don't jump off Swanny, he didn't poll that badly last year, and he is now an established star and will get the media/umpires attention week in-week out. Atm 10 bucks is solid value

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Can't wait for this year, I missed the first 11 rounds of last year (doing my own poll) and still made a very tidy profit.

If everyone puts a bit of effort in, it is easy money!

My first thought this year is don't jump off Swanny, he didn't poll that badly last year, and he is now an established star and will get the media/umpires attention week in-week out. Atm 10 bucks is solid value

Same thing was said about him in reference to the year before last, and look what happened in 2010; exactly the same thing - he polled less than what the vast majority expected.

I don't mean to be pessimistic, but that's just the way I see it when it comes to Swan. He's a very solid player no doubt, but because he seemingly got a lack of votes last year doesn't neccesarily mean the umpires are going to overcompensate. Some players just don't attract the umpires and Swan happens to be one of those, which is one of the many lessons i've learnt with the Brownlow over the past few years. Keep that in mind when punting, as polling history may not seem like much, but it actually equates to something much more.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

He is a known vote getter so if he could return to old form (I know it's a big if) and WC win 8-10 games he is a show.

101/1

way unders

il give you 501/1

HAHA! TAB have Kerr quoted at $34!? And I thought the $101 offered by Sportsbet was more than generous. Surely they're taking the piss.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

D-WD, to give you some sort of a response with regard to "lay betting", it's really quite simple. You either:
-back at long odds and then lay off when they come in, or
-lay at short odds (if you think they'll drift) and back them when they drift.

It's all about picking the market, the way it is going to move. So, if we take the first type from above (back long, sell short) as an example:

Back Boak to win the BL at 200:1 for 1 unit, he has a ripping first half of the year, combined with Port winning more than expected, and by round 14 he has come in to 40:1. You now have three options:
1. Let it ride and go for the 200 unit return.
2. Lay him for 1 unit, in which case if he wins you win roughly 200-(40x1) units = 160 units. If he loses in this case, you lose your initial 1 unit, but you gain the 1 unit that you layed. Effectively you make your initial bet at 200:1 a free bet at roughly 160:1.
3. You lay him for some amount that guarentees you a profit no matter if he wins or loses. For example, you lay him for 3 units. If he loses, you lose your initial 1 unit, but gain the 3 that you layed him for and so profit 2. If he wins, you win your 200 units, but lose roughly 3x40 units from your lay bet and therefore you win roughly 200-120=80 units.

Unfortunately, I think you need to be betting quite large, and hence risking a lot, to make good money, and then there is Betfair's commission (~5%) reducing the profits.

Hope that helps a little...

 

[CamTinley]

Since 17 December 2010 when the Brownlow Prices (Sportsbet) first came out, there have hardly been any price changes amongst players <$101.00

The only changes are ...

Goddard $12.00 --> $14.00
Hodge $16.00 --> $14.00
M Murphy $51.00 --> $41.00
N Riewoldt $51.00 --> $34.00
Mitchell $81.00 --> $67.00
A Krakouer $101.00 (not previously listed)

All others are on the same prices.

Daniel Cross is still @$26.00 if anyone was wondering

 

[Vapor]

Same thing was said about him in reference to the year before last, and look what happened in 2010; exactly the same thing - he polled less than what the vast majority expected.

I don't mean to be pessimistic, but that's just the way I see it when it comes to Swan. He's a very solid player no doubt, but because he seemingly got a lack of votes last year doesn't neccesarily mean the umpires are going to overcompensate. Some players just don't attract the umpires and Swan happens to be one of those, which is one of the many lessons i've learnt with the Brownlow over the past few years. Keep that in mind when punting, as polling history may not seem like much, but it actually equates to something much more.

Agree with you on Swan, I think there is always an insane amount of hype placed on him and I know that unless he steps up to an even higher level, I will be avoiding him with my money. In my opinion the spotlight will be shifting over to Pendlebury this year (to be seen as a genuine contender, not just as the media's 'roughie' ), especially with his strong end to the season and the Norm Smith. While Swan is a gun and extremely consistent player, I feel that he just doesn't have the X factor needed to take away enough 3 votes, whether that be down to his more workmanlike approach and less moments of flashiness as compared to say Pendlebury. The umpires didn't overcompensate in 2010 for his 'disappointing' vote polling in 2009, and thats enough to sway me away from him again barring many many superhuman performances

 

[Mudeo]

Someone i have been keeping an eye on is Andrew Swallow, he is my roughie this year and if he improves from last year he will be in for a good show i think. With Harvey getting older and on the decline other players are going to have to step up and Swallow has already proved that he can still poll votes in a team that doesnt win much. In my opinion the Kangaroos team as a whole will improve and win more games than what they did last year.

 

[Kahuna]

Swallow is too short for mine, in a team that wont win heaps of games and flashy players such as Harvey and Wells I think the task might be a little tough.

 

[BiG BanG]

Dane Swan for the win haha! only players outside of collingwood with a chance is Joel Selwood, Brendan Goddard and Andrew Swallow as a roughie

 

[Mudeo]

Just having a look through the odds on the tab a couple actually stand out for value.
Someone who had a fantastic finals series who could cause an upset
Josh P. Kennedy @ 1001 a win
@ 251 place
Could shake up the comp this year if he mirrors his finals series.
Value:
Bartel @ 67
if fit, Joel Corey place @ 251
Jack @ 101
A Swallow a place @ 70

Then there is just the obvious people at the top of the page.

 

[Vapor]

Swallow is paying 70 to place? I like those odds, North could be a surprise team this year and with Harvey getting older, stranger things have definitely happened

 

[s1bbald]

63.50 Vapor. That caught my eye too...

 

[CamTinley]

Swallow is paying 70 to place? I like those odds, North could be a surprise team this year and with Harvey getting older, stranger things have definitely happened

Sportsbet have Andrew Swallow @$50 for a win. That sounds more like a David Swallow price but there are some crazy prices around. I'd grab that $70.00 place price if you can get it.

 

[Mudeo]

63.50 Vapor. That caught my eye too...

And i think if you want that price you might have to part with a little bit of cash now as well unfortunately.

Sportsbet have Andrew Swallow @$50 for a win. That sounds more like a David Swallow price but there are some crazy prices around. I'd grab that $70.00 place price if you can get it.

Tab website Cam

 

[CamTinley]

Does anyone know if you can put MultiBets on at this time of the AFL season? I just opened a SportsBet account and want to do a Brownlow--> Coleman multi but it doesn't seem to have that option. Does anyone have any info on this?

Thanks

 

[CamTinley]

And i think if you want that price you might have to part with a little bit of cash now as well unfortunately.



Tab website Cam

Thanks Vod Ka Nockers

 

[Colson]

Just having a look through the odds on the tab a couple actually stand out for value.
Someone who had a fantastic finals series who could cause an upset
Josh P. Kennedy @ 1001 a win
@ 251 place
Could shake up the comp this year if he mirrors his finals series.
Value:
Bartel @ 67
if fit, Joel Corey place @ 251
Jack @ 101
A Swallow a place @ 70

Then there is just the obvious people at the top of the page.

What is jack to place?