Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[CamTinley]

Just to get things rolling for the new season

From 16 December 2010 - Sportsbet

Swan $10.00
Goddard $12.00
Ablett $12.00
JSelwood $14.00
Judd $14.00
Hodge $16.00
Pendlebury $21.00
Cross $26.00
Cooney $26.00
Montagna $34.00
Hayes $34.00
Sandilands $34.00
Boyd $34.00
Pavlich $34.00
Bartel $34.00
Didak $41.00
Thomas $41.00
Goodes $41.00
Franklin $41.00
Rioli $41.00
JBrown $41.00
Vince $41.00
Chapman $51.00
Watson $51.00
Lake $51.00
MMurphy$51.00
ASwallow $51.00
Priddis $51.00
Dal Santo $51.00
Gibbs $51.00
Deledio $51.00
Jack $51.00
RGriffen $51.00
JRiewoldt $51.00
NRiewoldt $51.00
Barlow $51.00

upwards others

 

[scooterselwood]

Just to get things rolling for the new season

From 16 December 2010 - Sportsbet

Swan $10.00
Goddard $12.00
Ablett $12.00
JSelwood $14.00
Judd $14.00
Hodge $16.00
Pendlebury $21.00
Cross $26.00
Cooney $26.00
Montagna $34.00
Hayes $34.00
Sandilands $34.00
Boyd $34.00
Pavlich $34.00
Bartel $34.00
Didak $41.00
Thomas $41.00
Goodes $41.00
Franklin $41.00
Rioli $41.00
JBrown $41.00
Vince $41.00
Chapman $51.00
Watson $51.00
Lake $51.00
MMurphy$51.00
ASwallow $51.00
Priddis $51.00
Dal Santo $51.00
Gibbs $51.00
Deledio $51.00
Jack $51.00
RGriffen $51.00
JRiewoldt $51.00
NRiewoldt $51.00
Barlow $51.00

upwards others

i like. plus boak at a bigger price

 

[StringyDog]

Surely they have mixed up Cross and Griffen's prices as not even in the magical land of fairies could Cross be on the same line as Cooney, 50% less then Boyd and half Griffen's price...

 

[You Beauty!]

Bought new house and now looking forward to the new season and discussing all things brownlow. Many questions will be answered in 2011. Here are a few that come to mind.

Swan? It took Ablett a few years and player association medals before the umps followed suit. Will it happen for him? Forwards? Is it time? Full season by someone like Riewoldt or Brown, who knows maybe 2011 is the year? Selwood & Pendles? Obvious value. Both could take Judd's teacher's pet title in 2011. Judd? Dare I say it, it is not impossible for him to win his 3rd at some point. 2011 or 2012? Or will Gibbs/Murphy step up? Hodge? Captain now. Just what he needs to swing a few more votes his way. Noticed umps calling him Hodgey and appear to 'like' him now. Freo player? A big year by dockers may see a purple charlie? And purple leads me to Hayes. Has Lenny got one in him? Or another Saints player? Will the Sun shine out of Ablett now he has gone north without his helpers? What about Boyd & others? Obviously there are other strong contenders for the b'low .. who will it be?

Noone knows just yet so it is hard to say this early, but I thought I'd contribute a bit by giving a few tips before the season starts. Some do's and donts.

Do Nots: 1. Do not just go by newpaper votes or be swayed by glowing articles on certain players/teams. Tabloid papers have their own agenda; to sell papers to their larger demographic groups. Glowing articles don't change umpires votes and their 'best players' on games aren't necessarily BOG players from an umpire perspective. I am sure we are all aware of certain newspapers/journalists who get it wrong most of the time.
2. Don't waste you money laying bets now, you'll only get hurt. Save your Johnny Cash until the regular season. Better yet, into the season or mid year when you have a better idea of how things are panning out.
3. Don't criticise other peoples opinion on this thread. Sure question their ideas, take them or leave them, but more negative posts will mean more people will leave or simply not post.
Do's
1. Do your own research. Trust your judgement. Watch as many games as possible. Share your opinions or not; up to you, but generally speaking when you give you get back.
2. Think like an umpire. Umpires think like a politically correct teacher. There is a big tip right there.
3. Do look at statistics, but don't live by them. Some players with fewer stats break open games, change the flow. Their influence at certain points stand out more than cheap stats.
4. Do enjoy it. Remember it is us against the bookies. It should be a fun way to make a bit of money. Let's hope this thread doesn't go off the track too much this season. All in all I really enjoy these threads as I think most people do. Enjoy it.

Have a Merry Christmas All.

 

[AG]

Murphy, Jack and Griffen could be good value from that lot.

 

[gothedons]

will be interested to see how ablett adn selwood go early, could be loading up on ablett early, if GC win a few games and he is damaging (could be a judd like situation where he gets lets of votes)... Watson also good value especially if essendon manage to win a few more games

 

[jimmyclean]

Bought new house and now looking forward to the new season and discussing all things brownlow. Many questions will be answered in 2011. Here are a few that come to mind.

Swan? It took Ablett a few years and player association medals before the umps followed suit. Will it happen for him? Forwards? Is it time? Full season by someone like Riewoldt or Brown, who knows maybe 2011 is the year? Selwood & Pendles? Obvious value. Both could take Judd's teacher's pet title in 2011. Judd? Dare I say it, it is not impossible for him to win his 3rd at some point. 2011 or 2012? Or will Gibbs/Murphy step up? Hodge? Captain now. Just what he needs to swing a few more votes his way. Noticed umps calling him Hodgey and appear to 'like' him now. Freo player? A big year by dockers may see a purple charlie? And purple leads me to Hayes. Has Lenny got one in him? Or another Saints player? Will the Sun shine out of Ablett now he has gone north without his helpers? What about Boyd & others? Obviously there are other strong contenders for the b'low .. who will it be?

Noone knows just yet so it is hard to say this early, but I thought I'd contribute a bit by giving a few tips before the season starts. Some do's and donts.

Do Nots: 1. Do not just go by newpaper votes or be swayed by glowing articles on certain players/teams. Tabloid papers have their own agenda; to sell papers to their larger demographic groups. Glowing articles don't change umpires votes and their 'best players' on games aren't necessarily BOG players from an umpire perspective. I am sure we are all aware of certain newspapers/journalists who get it wrong most of the time.
2. Don't waste you money laying bets now, you'll only get hurt. Save your Johnny Cash until the regular season. Better yet, into the season or mid year when you have a better idea of how things are panning out.
3. Don't criticise other peoples opinion on this thread. Sure question their ideas, take them or leave them, but more negative posts will mean more people will leave or simply not post.
Do's
1. Do your own research. Trust your judgement. Watch as many games as possible. Share your opinions or not; up to you, but generally speaking when you give you get back.
2. Think like an umpire. Umpires think like a politically correct teacher. There is a big tip right there.
3. Do look at statistics, but don't live by them. Some players with fewer stats break open games, change the flow. Their influence at certain points stand out more than cheap stats.
4. Do enjoy it. Remember it is us against the bookies. It should be a fun way to make a bit of money. Let's hope this thread doesn't go off the track too much this season. All in all I really enjoy these threads as I think most people do. Enjoy it.

Have a Merry Christmas All.

Thanks for the tips! Especially about the newspapers, I think I have trusted journalists judgement too much in the past.

I plan on doing my own personal count next year, but its likely I will only watch every Melbourne game, should I keep my count to only Melbourne? Or should I keep my eye on highlights and opinions on other games and making a count on them too?

Also concerning the umpires thinking, can you elaborate? I am really interested in this point of view as gaining an umpires perspective is something I think I have had trouble adjusting to.

 

[half_back_flank]

Murphy, Jack and Griffen could be good value from that lot.

Discussed him in the 2010 thread, he opened at 51, into 41 now.

Not interested in putting money down this early but if he gets through preseason unscathed and anything around 50 is on offer, i'll put a little on him.

 

[TassieSaint]

May as well make some predictions to see how they go september next year.

Just on the initial odds I'm thinking Franklin could end up good value at Hawthorn, as Hodge and Mitchell will keep him from getting too short. I always look out for little known players in crap sides (e.g Boak) and at Richmond I think Foley could be a dark horse. And for a bit of a smokey Thomas at Collingwood, if he keeps improving could beat Swan and Pendles but unless they get injured he won't start ahead of them.

 

[You Beauty!]

Also concerning the umpires thinking, can you elaborate? I am really interested in this point of view as gaining an umpires perspective is something I think I have had trouble adjusting to.[/quote]

There are few things to look out for, including play makers and the stuff about stats in my last post. Also be careful with giving votes to those that fall into the category of throwing hissy fits at the umps. Goddard has been a used example in the past. He got 14 votes, less than half of Judd, but some would argue he had a better year. Did I see him 2 or 3rd fav in these odds? Just be wary, regardless of his fantastic drawn gf game. There are a list of players I am wary about in this temper trap category; complaining a lot. There are a couple at most clubs.
Playing for frees is another issue which I think would annoy the umps. Although Selwood maybe excempt as he is so hard at the footy. Contested possessions and clearances for midfielders obviously important. As is bags of sauage rolls for forwards.
Watching the Brownlow medal count again on the w'end showed me again how important it is correctly naming the player with 3 votes instead of 2. Judd killed it for 3s, Swan lots of voted games, but not enough 3s. From memory I think Ablett only got one 2 voted game in 2009. So when deciding between giving a player 3 or 2 votes, think carefully. It is the difference between winning and losing.
Anyway there are a few more tips. However, don't follow my or other posters opinions too closely. Opinions aren't facts, no-one is right all the time. I got luck on the brownlow last season, but it isn't to say I will again this year, nor others. But research and watching plently of games helps. Watch more than just the melb games if you can.
Nine or so posts on this thread and we are already nearing 500 views. Got a feeling a lot of eyes will be watching this thread this year.
Best of luck everyone and bring on the footy. YB!

 

[twarby]

Got a feeling a lot of eyes will be watching this thread this year.

hopefully the tallys are way wrong then

 

[You Beauty!]

hopefully the tallys are way wrong then

Do you think we should all go to a private forum?

 

[KardiniaPark]

Looking forward to it again this year. I wont be betting until round 22 though

 

[s1bbald]

Are you sure Kardinia? From memory the thread started a lot of its Brownlow/Premiership betting at around rounds 16-18. I think you should reconsider.

 

[twarby]

10k was won from my bet on Judd/Collingwood in round 16ish..
would be a fool not to bet during the year, as multis arnt a certanity to occur.

 

[johncocksasuperstar]

Betting in the last few rounds of the season is definitely very beneficial, then you can hedge your bets after the season has completed for a great chance at a big profit.

Plus who can resist betting then anyway and trying to get some great value of some players that blitzed it early.

 

[The OBSTacle]

Ablett jnr at $12 is a superb bet.

He only lost last season because Thompson kept putting him in the forward line and McKenna will bend over backwards to make sure Gary stays happy at GC. He will also be the head and shoulders dominant player at that club. Get on him.

 

[AG]

GC might be rubbish and limit his voting potential. I'd wait and see how competitive they are.

 

[StringyDog]

Ablett jnr at $12 is a superb bet.

He only lost last season because Thompson kept putting him in the forward line and McKenna will bend over backwards to make sure Gary stays happy at GC. He will also be the head and shoulders dominant player at that club. Get on him.

Modern day winners come from winning teams who play finals and more likely top4 teams, GC will be lucky to win 3-4 games for year which means Ablett has next to no chance, I will be laying him big.

 

[dylan123]

Modern day winners come from winning teams who play finals and more likely top4 teams, GC will be lucky to win 3-4 games for year which means Ablett has next to no chance, I will be laying him big.

Judd was able to poll a number of votes in a losing side last year so I wouldn't put it beyond Ablett to do the same if he plays to the level we have seem him play over the last few seasons.

Not saying I think he will win it but I still think he will be able to poll alright.

 

[StringyDog]

Judd was able to poll a number of votes in a losing side last year so I wouldn't put it beyond Ablett to do the same if he plays to the level we have seem him play over the last few seasons.

Not saying I think he will win it but I still think he will be able to poll alright.

Judd polled 24 of his votes from wins and only polled 6 from losing games and 2 of those games were close losses, GC will be getting flogged by 10+ goals most weeks, Ablett will be lucky to get double figure votes.

 

[s1bbald]

He did poll 3 in a 10 goal loss to Collingwood though... I'd be quite happy to put money on an Ablett polling more than 10 votes market (since we know the bookies are watching!).

 

[dylan123]

Judd polled 24 of his votes from wins and only polled 6 from losing games and 2 of those games were close losses, GC will be getting flogged by 10+ goals most weeks, Ablett will be lucky to get double figure votes.

My mistake, I thought Judd polled more then that in his losses.

It's hard to get a good judge of how GC will go but I am sure they will get a few wins next season and have a number of close matches which should give the opportunity for Ablett and Co to poll votes.

 

[krayfesh]

As far as winning the medal, there are four that immediately spring to mind.

Judd, Pendlebury, Selwood, Ablett.

All proven vote getters, 3 of them will be the main man in their midfields. Pendlebury in the eye of the umps even more now. Ablett's votes really depend on how many GC win, 8+ could see him doing a Judd from 2010.

For teams, Boak showed that he gets the votes and Kieran Jack looks like getting even more recognition. Hard to see Jobe Watson not winning at Essendon, maybe even going top 5.

Nice early start though, guys.

 

[You Beauty!]

Did anyone else hear the interview with Dr. Turf on Sen late one night last week? I think it was either Tues or Wed night. He was giving his best tips on punting.

He talked about keeping his own book, ie. keeping a list of his own odds or what he thinks should be the odds. He also mentioned about waiting until the right time to bet, not to rush as there will always be another opportunity aswell and other good advice. Needing to keep up to date with your research or as Neil Young may have put it, rust never sleeps.

The interview itself was referring to horse racing, but was it was very interesting and some things could be carried over to brownlow betting.
I didn't catch to whole interview and now can't find a podcast. Anyone else catch it? Very interesting man. Hats off to what he has achieved.